Systems & Foresight

Some basics

Basic words

• System– “an assemblage of interrelated elements

comprising a unified whole with emergent properties”

• Foresight– The art of anticipation, of looking forward

• Hindsight– Perception after the event

Essential beginnings

for all foresight

The more and deeper you think ….• What are you trying to anticipate?

– System, its boundaries and their uncertainties• Why are you doing so?

– To be defensive or creative?• When may your anticipations be effective?

– The time horizon?• Where will they be important?

– Locally or globally or glocally?• Who is important?

– Policy makers or ‘street level’ • How will you go about your anticipations?

– The role of formal methods

• ….the more there seems to be no real ‘answer’ to a situation

Scanning is Cinderella

Events of very low probabilityBut of very high information content

(Black Swans)

Events of high probabilityBut of low information content

(Grey pigeons)

Foresight & time

• ‘Real’ foresight

• Institutional foresight

Situations

Why the world isn’t

always what it seems

Six themes

• Social• Technical (includes both S &

T)• Economic• Ecology• Political (& politics)• Values/norms