Systems Approach to Modelling Food Sustainability: From Concepts to Practice

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Systems Approach to Modelling Food Sustainability: From Concepts to Practice - Presentation by Ariella Helfgott. This presentation was given as part of the 'Metrics of Sustainable Diets and Food Systems Symposium, co-organized by Bioversity International and CIHEAM-IAMM, November 4th -5th 2014, Agropolis International, Montpellier Visit 'Metrics of Sustainable Diets and Food Systems' Symposium webpage. http://www.bioversityinternational.org/metrics-sustainable-diets-symposium/

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<ul><li> 1. Systems Approach to Modelling FoodSustainability: From Concepts to Practice?Ariella HelfgottFood Systems Research GroupEnvironmental Change InstituteUniversity of Oxford</li></ul> <p> 2. Food security... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economicand social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food tomeet their dietary needs and food preferences for an activeand healthy life.(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012) is universally applicable is more than food production is underpinned by food systems 3. Food Systems include a set of Activities 4. all of which contribute to crossingPlanetary Boundaries. 5. Agriculture as a driver of Land-cover ChangeExtensification Biodiversity loss Soil degradation Altered hydrology Altered biogeochemical cycling GHG emissions all PBs? 6. Species threats attributable to agriculture Among the drivers of habitat loss for mammals,agriculture and pastoralism are the most important,together affecting 40% of terrestrial mammalsIUCN, Red List of threatened species, 2010 7. Contribution of capture fisheries tobiodiversity loss 8. Agriculture as a source of GHG emissionsMt CO2-e, 2010Worldwatch Institutes Vital Signs Online Service (www.worldwatch.org) 9. But Food Systemsinvolve more than agriculture 10. UKs food industry costs(post- farmgate) 14% of energy consumptiondefra, 2006by UK businesses and 7million tonnes of carbonemissions per year 10% of all industrial use of thepublic water supply 10% of the industrial andcommercial waste stream 25% of all HGV vehiclekilometres in the UK 11. Processing Food: water use and effluent 10% of all industrial use of the public water supply Effluent significantly affects aquatic habitats large amounts of organic materials such as proteins,carbohydrates, and lipids high biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and/orchemical oxygen demand (COD) high N and P concentration high suspended oil or grease contents high variations in pHDefra, 2006; Kroyer, 1995; Prasad et al. 2010 12. Packaging Food Use of raw materials for packaging Real and virtual energy content Litter Adverse consequences of careless disposalof packaging, esp. marine biodiversity 13. Packaging Food Litter Adverse consequences of carelessdisposal of packaging, esp. marine Use of raw materials for packaging Real and virtual energy content 7% GHG emissions from UK foodsystem (Garnett, 2008) 14. Guardian 1 February 2009Refrigerantleakageaccounts for30% ofsuper-marketsdirect GHGemissions(EnvironmentInvestigationAgency, 2010)Retailing food 15. GHG emissions across Food SystemsUK USA IndiaProducingProcessingDistributingConsumingWastedisposingGarnett, FCRN, 2009 Edwards et al., Inst Agric &amp; Trade Policy, 2009 Pathak et al, Ag, Ecosys &amp; Env, 2010 16. Examplecontributionsof FSAs to PBsProducingfoodProcessing&amp; PackagingfoodDistributing&amp; RetailingfoodConsumingfoodClimatechangeGHGs,albedoEnergy Emissions fromtransport andcold chainGHGs fromcookingN cycle Eutrophicn,GHGsEffluent NOx fromtransportWasteP cycle P reserves Detergents WasteFresh waterIrrigation Washing,useheating, coolingCleaning food Cooking,cleaningLand usechangeIntensificn,soil degdnPaper/card Transport &amp;retailinfrastructureForest to edibleoils plantationBiodiversitylossDeforestation,soils, fishing[Aluminium] Invasive spp ConsumerchoicesAtmos.aerosolsDust Shipping Smoke fromcookingChemicalpollutionPesticides Effluent TransportemissionsCooking,cleaning 17. How do Climate Change and drivers of crossingPlanetary Boundaries affect Food Security??Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:FOODUTILISATIONFOODACCESSAffordabilityAllocationPreferenceNutritional ValueSocial ValueFood SafetyFOODAVAILABILITYProductionDistributionExchange 18. Extreme weather affects affordabilityPoor people tend to spend relatively more oftheir income on food, therefore suffer morewhen food prices go upCost of wheat is 10% of cost of loaf of breadin the US, but 90% cost of chapatti in India 19. and food storage 20. and food distribution 21. and aspects of food safety. Mycotoxins formed on plant productsin the field or during storage Residues of pesticides in plantproducts affected by changes inmanaging increased pest pressure Marine biotoxins in seafood followingproduction of phycotoxins by harmfulalgal blooms Pathogenic bacteria in foods duringheat waves.Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009 22. and food availability ... UK normally exports ca. 2.5 Mt wheat / yr Wettest 2012 autumn since records began Coldest 2013 spring in 50 yr=&gt; UK expects to import 2.5 Mt in 2013 23. and hence food price. 24. Consequences of the2008 Food Price Crisis 25. Agricultural intensificationleads to declines in pollinators a widespread pattern of loss of pollinator richness and abundance as aresult of agricultural intensification and habitat loss. [since 1980]Potts et al., 2010, Trends in Ecol &amp; Evol 26. and tropospheric O3 pollution reduces yields.Mills et al, NERC-CEH, 2011 27. BackgroundSo why the need to change things?1. Planetary Boundary concerns are clear climate change biodiversity loss other PBs Complex interactions between the foodsystem and the environment2. Food Security a major concern ~ 1b hungry ~ 2b insufficient nutrients &gt; 2.5b overweight or obese 28. Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition SecuritySufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billionSufficient calsSufficient nutrscurrently ~ 3 billionExcess cals (incl. somewith insufficient nutrs)Constraints on dietary choice and diversitycurrently &gt;2.5 billionInsufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 1 billionCONSUMERSaffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, =&gt; Consumption by Sub-populationsPost-farm gate Food System ActivitiesFOOD CHAIN ACTORSprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, =&gt; Final Nutrient Quantity and PriceLocal, Regional &amp; Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, =&gt; Basic Nutrient Quantity and PricePRODUCERSProductivity Diversity &amp; Quality 29. 20252000Looking ahead ...The biodiversity and other environmental consequences of meetingthis demand with current food systems are direThe potential health care costs from obesity-relatedThe economic costs of diagnosed diabetes inToo much ---- Appropriate ---- -- Too little --12200the US alone in 2012 is $245 billion- Too much - ----- Appropriate amount ------- Too little --Billions of people(indicative; not to scale)NCDs are massive2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1020502014kcal/person/dayconsumed------ Too much ------ ---- Appropriate amount ---- --- Too little -------------- Too much ------------ --- Appropriate amount --- ----- Too little ----- 30. Resilience: common threads Response of a system to disturbance orchange All definitions describe one or more of thesethree types of behaviour: Absorbing/withstanding Recovering Adapting beneficially 31. SummaryResilience is a property of a system thatdescribes the nature of the response of thesystem to a particular disturbance, of aparticular magnitude, from the perspectiveof a particular observer over a specifiedtimescaleWe need to know OF WHAT, TO WHAT, FROMWHOSE PERSPECTIVE, OVER WHAT TIMEFRAME 32. Framing resilience involves specifying 33. Modelling the food system Define system boundaries Variables of interest Changes and shocks of interest Interventions of interest Measures of success or improvement Timeframe These decisions will effect the results andconclusions drawn from any model Many participatory approaches available forframing and modelling the food system 34. Modelling the Food System Different perspectives Actors, activities, outcomes Social, environmental, economic, political Types of models Fuzzy Cognitive Maps System Dynamics Stochastic Models 35. Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition SecuritySufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billionSufficient calsSufficient nutrscurrently ~ 3 billionExcess cals (incl. somewith insufficient nutrs)Constraints on dietary choice and diversitycurrently &gt;2.5 billionInsufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 1 billionCONSUMERSaffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, =&gt; Consumption by Sub-populationsPost-farm gate Food System ActivitiesFOOD CHAIN ACTORSprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, =&gt; Final Nutrient Quantity and PriceLocal, Regional &amp; Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, =&gt; Basic Nutrient Quantity and PricePRODUCERSProductivity Diversity &amp; Quality 36. So what do we do about it? Adapt to inevitable change Mitigate further change=&gt; Do the doing things differently 37. Improve agriculture, livestock, horticulture,aquaculture, fisheries, More varied crops Stress-tolerantvarieties Novel food producingsystems Improve water mgmt Insurance forproducers Wider range of foodstuffs 38. consider insect protein for better land-use Range in land use (m2) per kg of edible proteinDe Vries and De Boer 2010; Oonincx and De Boer 2012. 39. consider wholly novel foods 40. reduce food losses and waste ~ 30% worldwideFAO, Global Food Losses and Food Waste, 2011 41. and reduce over-consumption. 42. Thank you </p>

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