syria barometer survey: about war in syria and … · syria barometer survey about this report ......

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SyriaBarometerSurvey:OpinionsaboutWarinSyriaandaboutRadicalAction

ReporttotheOfficeofUniversityPrograms,ScienceandTechnologyDirectorate,

U.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity

June2016


Syria Barometer Survey

AboutThisReport

TheauthorsofthisreportareSophiaMoskalenko,BrynMawrCollege,andClarkMcCauley,BrynMawrColelge.QuestionsaboutthisreportshouldbedirectedtoSophiaMoskalenkoatsmoskale@[email protected].

ThisreportispartoftheNationalConsortiumfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism(START)project,“ChangingDynamicsintheLevant,”ledbyClarkMcCauley,BrynMawrCollege. ThisresearchwassupportedbytheOfficeofUniversityPrograms,ScienceandTechnologyDirectorate,U.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecuritythroughAward 2012-ST-061-CS0001-04-AMENDMENT 6. Theviewsandconclusionscontainedinthisdocumentarethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeinterpretedasnecessarilyrepresentingtheofficialpolicies,eitherexpressedorimplied,oftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurityorSTART.

AboutSTART

TheNationalConsortiumfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism(START)issupportedinpartbytheScienceandTechnologyDirectorateoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecuritythroughaCenterofExcellenceprogramledbytheUniversityofMaryland.STARTusesstate‐of‐the‐arttheories,methodsanddatafromthesocialandbehavioralsciencestoimproveunderstandingoftheorigins,dynamicsandsocialandpsychologicalimpactsofterrorism.Formoreinformation,[email protected].

CitationsTocitethisreport,pleaseusethisformat:Moskalenko,Sophia,andClarkMcCauley.“SyriaBarometerSurvey:OpinionsaboutWarinSyriaandaboutRadicalAction,”ReporttotheOfficeofUniversityPrograms,ScienceandTechnologyDirectorate,U.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity.CollegePark,MD:START,2016.


Syria Barometer Survey

ContentsExecutiveSummary..............................................................................................................................................................................1

Introduction.............................................................................................................................................................................................2

Methodology.............................................................................................................................................................................................2

Results.........................................................................................................................................................................................................4

WhoisresponsibleforthecivilwarinSyria?......................................................................................................................4

HowpopularareradicalIslamistideas?.................................................................................................................................9

Correlationsamongopinionquestions................................................................................................................................11

Factoranalysisofopinioncorrelations................................................................................................................................12

Discussion..............................................................................................................................................................................................13

Utilityofquickturnaroundtelephonesurveyduringcivilwar.................................................................................13

Surprisesinopinionresults.......................................................................................................................................................14

Diagnosticvalueofunexpectedfindings.............................................................................................................................15

LimitationsandFutureDirections..........................................................................................................................................16

AppendixA:SyrianBarometerSurveyquestionnaire........................................................................................................17

AppendixB:DemographicFrequencies....................................................................................................................................29

AppendixC:FactorLoadings.........................................................................................................................................................36


Syria Barometer Survey 1

ExecutiveSummaryAtelephonesurveyofSyrianswasconductedbymarketresearchcompanyGfKfromaEuropeancallingcentersbetweenMay6,2016andMay27,2016.Thesurveywascompletedby101Syrianmalesbetweentheagesof18and71;although87percentofparticipantslivedinanareacontrolledbyBasharal‐Assad'sforces,52percentwereSunni.QuestionsincludedopinionsaboutlifeinSyriaandinparticipants’hometownsincethebeginningofthecivilwar;opinionsaboutwhichpoliticalactorwasresponsibleforthekillingandsufferinginSyria;opinionsaboutjustifiabilityofsuicidebombingandsupportforISIS;opinionsaboutU.S.foreignpolicies;andattitudetowardtheideaofa“unitedstatesofIslam.”ResultsindicatedthatmostparticipantsexperiencedsignificanthardshipssincetheonsetofthecivilwarinSyria.Surprisingly,mostparticipantsdidnotblametheAssadgovernment,RussiaorIranforthewar,andinsteadblamedtheUnitedStates,theIslamicStateofIraqandSyria(ISIS),andTurkey.SuicidebombingandsupportforISISreceivedalmostzeroendorsement.MostparticipantsbelievedtheUnitedStatesiswagingawaronIslamandthatU.S.foreignpoliciesaredictatedbyJewishinterests.ComparisonswitharecentsurveyofU.S.Muslimsaswellascorrelationsamongsomeoftheitemsofferpotentiallyusefulimplicationsformilitaryandsecurityofficials.Notably,SunniparticipantsdidnotdifferfromotherreligioustraditionsinsupportfortheSyriangovernment.



IntroductionThesurveywascommissionedbytheDepartmentofDefenseandDepartmentofHomelandSecuritytotestthepracticalityofusingtelephonepollingtolearnmoreaboutSyrians’beliefsaboutthecausesoftheSyriancivilwar,aswellastheirideasaboutradicalactionssuchassuicidebombing.

MethodologyThesurveywasconductedbytelephoneinArabicwithn=101Syrianmalesaged18yearsorolder.Adual‐framesampledesignwasused,withlandlineandmobiletelephonenumbersrandomlygeneratedfromacomprehensivelistofpre‐warSyriantelephoneexchanges.CallstoSyrianexchangesforinterviewsweremadebynativeArab‐speakinginterviewersoutsideSyria.AsthecurrentdemographiccharacteristicsorgeographicdistributionoftheSyrianadultmalepopulationwithworkingtelephonesonSyrianexchangesisnotknown,nosamplestratificationorweightinghasbeenapplied.GfK,oneoftheleadingmarketresearchorganizationsworldwide,providedtranslationoftheEnglishsurveytoArabic,supervisionofsurveyinterviewsinArabic,andtranslationofinterviewresponsesintoanSPSS.savfile.RandomdigitdialingintoSyriantelephoneexchangestried27,623numbers,ofwhich1,127wereusableand26,496wereunusable.Ofthe1,127usablenumbers,843refusedthesurvey,sixhadlanguageproblemsandcouldnotcompletethequestionnaire,and278(25%)completedthequestionnaire.Ofthe278whocompletedthequestionnaire,177werenotqualifiedastheywerenotover18and/orwerenotcurrentlylivingorhadnotlivedinSyriaduringthepast12months.Thus101participantscompletedthemainsurvey,representing36percentofthosecompletingthequestionnaireand9percentofusablenumberscalled.Participantswere101malesovertheageof18;allwereresidinginSyriaatthetimeoftheinterview.Participantswereinterviewedmostlyviacellphone(70%)ratherthanland‐line(30%).Therewerenodifferencesbetweencellandland‐lineparticipantsonanyopinionquestionandonlyafewsmalldifferencesindemographics.Belowaredemographiccharacteristicsofthesample.Age.Participants’agesrangedfrom19to75,withaverageageof40(SD=13.6).Residency.Ofthe101participants,themajority(87,86%)livedinthesametownsincebeforethewarbegan;therest(14,14%)havechangedtheirplaceofresidencesincethebeginningoftheSyriancivilwar.Mostlocationscountedonlyoneortwopeopleeach,withthelargestnumbersinDamascus(12,13%),andAleppo(6,6%).(SeeAppendixBforalistofparticipants’currentandoriginallocationsandnumberofparticipantsreportingeachlocation).Participantswereaskedtoreportwhichactorcontrolsthetownorcitywheretheywerelocated.Most(88,87%)reportedthatBasharAssad’sgovernmentforcescontrolledtheirtown;four(4%)reportedthatKurdishforcescontrolledtheirtown;one(1%)reportedthatDaeshcontrolledtheirtown;three(3%)reportedthatsomeothergroupcontrolledtheirtown;andfiverefusedtoanswerorwerenotsure.



Changesintheirhometown.Inresponsetoaquestion,“Overthepast12months,doyouthinklivingconditionsinyourhometownhavebecomeharder,easier,orhastherebeennochangesincethewarbeganforresidentslivingthere?”mostparticipants(76,75%)saidlifehasbecomeharder.Fourparticipants(4%)feltthatlifehasbecomeeasier;17(17%)saidtherehasbeennochange;andfour(4%)saidtheywerenotsure.Similarly,whenansweringaboutavailabilityofjobsintheirhometown,51(51%)saidworkhasbecomehardertofind;22(22%)saidworkhasbecomeeasiertofind;24(24%)saidtherehasbeennochangesincethewarbegan;andfour(4%)saidtheywerenotsure.Whenaskedwhethertheirhometownhasbecomemoresafe,lesssafe,ortherehasbeennodifferencesincethewarbegan,mostparticipants(46;46%)saidtheirhometownhasbecomemoresafe;27(27%)saidtheirhometownhasbecomelesssafe;25(25%)saidtherehasbeennodifference;andthree(3%)werenotsureorrefusedtoanswer.Therewerenosignificantdifferencesonanyofthesurveyquestionsbetweenparticipantswhohavemovedsincetheonsetofthewarandthosewhohavestayedintheirhometown.Education.Aboutonethirdofparticipants(31%)hadnotcompletedhighschool.About47percentofparticipantshadattendedcollegeorreceivedacollegedegreeoranadvanceddegree.Onaverageparticipantshavecompleted12.49yearsofformalschooling(SD=4.16).Maritalstatus.Mostparticipants(78,77%)weremarried.Ofthese,nearlyall(76,75%)reportedthattheirwivesresidedwiththematthetimeofthesurvey.Additionally,58participants(58%)reportedothermembersoftheirfamilylivingwiththematthetimeofthesurvey.Religioustradition.AmajorityofparticipantsreportedtheirreligiousaffiliationasSunniMuslim(47,52%).Fourparticipants(4%)wereShi’aMuslim;six(7%)wereAlawiteMuslim;four(4%)wereDruze;two(2%)wereRomanCatholic;26(26%)reportedtheirreligioustraditionas“other”;andnine(9%)refusedtoanswer.Participantswereaskedtospecifywhattheymeantwhentheyanswered“other”tothequestionaboutreligion.Outof26participantswhodidso,twoself‐identifiedasOrthodoxChristian,oneidentifiedasChristian;theremaining23participantswrote“Muslim”or“Islam”or“SyriaMuslim”or“LoveSyria.”(Seeappendixforthebreak‐downofresponseswithinthe“other”category.)Insum,Syriansurveyparticipantsareoverwhelminglymarried(77%),livingwiththeirwives(75%),livinginatowncontrolledbygovernmentforces(86%),thesametowntheylivedinbeforethecivilwarbegan(87%),atowninwhichlivingconditionswerehardersincewarbegan(75%).Abouthalf(52%)areSunni,withmanyotherreligioustraditionsrepresented.Surprisingly,therewerenosignificantdifferencesbetweenparticipantsself‐identifiedasSunniandthosewhoself‐identifiedasanyotherreligioustraditiononanyofthequestionsrelatedtoradicalopinionortoassigningblameforthewar.



Althoughourparticipantsarepredominantlystay‐at‐homes,most(64%)knowsomeonewhohasmovedfromtheirhometownsincethecivilwarbegan:toanothertowninSyria(45%),toEurope(44%),toLebanon(35%),toTurkey(30%),toJordan(25%),andtoIraq(10%).

ResultsInthissection,wereviewdescriptiveresultsforallsurveyquestions;wethenexplorecorrelationsamongthesequestions,includingafactoranalysistoshowthepatternofthesecorrelations.

WhoisresponsibleforthecivilwarinSyria?Sevenquestionsassessedparticipants’opinionaboutwhowasresponsibleforthecivilwarinSyria.PotentialtargetsofblameincludedBasharAssad;ISIS(Daesh);Iranian‐backedgroups,Turkey;Russia;theUnitedStates;andKurds.Overall,resultssuggestthatsurveyparticipantslargelyblamedISIS,Turkey,andtheUnitedStatesbutassignedverylittleblametoAssad,Iranian‐backedgroups,Russia,ortheKurds.Detailedbreakdownsoftheresponsesareprovidedinthefiguresbelow.

Figure1(above)showsthatnearlytwo‐thirdsofparticipantsdidnotblameBasharAssadforthekillingandsufferinginSyria.Ontheotherhand,Figure2(below)showsthatmostparticipantsblamedISIS(Daesh).

Very much13%

Somewhat4%

A little7%

Not at all62%

Not sure 6%

Refused 8%

Figure1:HowmuchdoyoublameBasharalAssadforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?Doyoublamehimverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?



Figure2:HowmuchdoyoublameSunnimilitantgroupslikeal‐Qa’idaandDaeshforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?Doyoublamethesegroupsverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?

Figure3:HowmuchdoyoublameIranian‐backedgroupslikeHezbollahforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?Doyoublamethesegroupsverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?

Very much82%

Somewhat4%

A little2%

Not at all2%

Not sure 5%

Refused 5%

Very much16%

Somewhat7%

A little7%

Not at all52%

Not sure 12%

Refused 6%



Figure3(above)showsthatmostparticipantsdidnotblameIranian‐backedgroupslikeHezbollahforthekillingandsufferinginSyria.Figure4(below)showsthatmostparticipantsblamedTurkey.Figure4:HowmuchdoyoublameTurkeyforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?DoyoublameTurkeyverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?

Very much77%

Somewhat2%

A little5%

Not at all6%

Not sure 8%

Refused 2%



Figure5:HowmuchdoyoublameRussiaforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?DoyoublameRussiaverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?

Figure5(above)showsthatmostparticipantsdidnotblameRussiaforthekillingandsufferinginSyria.Figure6(below)showsthatmostparticipantsblamedtheUnitedStates.Figure6:HowmuchdoyoublametheUnitedStatesofAmericaforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?DoyoublametheUnitedStatesverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?

Very much, 15%

Somewhat, 6%

A little, 8%

Not at all, 61%

Not sure, 7%

Refused, 3%

Very much, 83%

Somewhat, 4%

A little, 2%

Not at all, 2%

Not sure, 6%

Refused, 3%



Figure7:HowmuchdoyoublametheKurdsforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?DoyoublametheKurdsverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?

Figure7(above)showsthatparticipantsweredividedintheiropinionabouttheKurds’responsibilityforthekillingandsufferinginSyria.Figure8(below)comparespercentofparticipantswhoblame“verymuch”forthekillingandsufferinginSyria:theUnitedState,ISIS,Turkey,Hezbollah,Russia,BasharAssad’sgovernmentforces,andKurds.ItisclearthatmostparticipantsdonotblameBasharal‐AssadorhisalliesHezbollahandRussia;theyblameal‐Assad’schallengers—theUnitedStates,ISIS,andTurkey.

Very much, 4%

Somewhat, 11%

A little, 14%

Not at all, 39%

Not sure, 25%

Refused, 7%



Figure8:Percentofparticipantsblamingactor"verymuch"forthe“killingandsuffering"inSyria

HowpopularareradicalIslamistideas?ParticipantswereaskedseveralquestionsthathavebeenusedwithU.S.Muslimsbytheauthorsofthisresearch.Thesequestions,withbothSyrianparticipants’andU.S.Muslimparticipants’responsestothem,arerepresentedinthissection.Directlyquotedquestionsappearinitalics;resultsforeachquestionthenfollowinregularfont.SomepeoplesaythatMuslimslivinginpredominantlyMuslimcountrieswouldbebetteroffifallthesecountriesjoinedtogetherinanationof“UnitedIslam”stretchingfromMoroccotoIndonesia.Doyoupersonallyagreeordisagreewiththisidea?Aboutone‐third(34,34%)participantsagreedwiththisstatement.Half(50,50%)disagreed;13(13%)saidtheywerenotsure;andfour(4%)refusedtoanswer.Forcomparison,thecorrespondingpercentagesinresponsetothesamequestioninourFebruary2016sampleof200U.S.Muslimswereasfollows:77percentofparticipantsagreedwiththeideaofaUnitedIslam,andonly23percent(abouthalftheSyrianpercentage)disagreedwithit.SomepeoplethinkthatsuicidebombingandotherformsofviolenceagainstciviliantargetsarejustifiedinordertodefendIslamfromitsenemies.Otherpeoplebelievethat,nomatterwhatthereason,thiskindofviolenceisneverjustified.DoyoupersonallyfeelthatthiskindofviolenceisoftenjustifiedtodefendIslam,sometimesjustified,rarelyjustified,orneverjustified?

84 83 78

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Syrianparticipantswerenearunanimousinrejectingsuicidebombing:97participants(96%)saidthiskindofviolenceisneverjustified.Oneparticipant(1%)saiditis“oftenjustified”;oneparticipant(1%)saiditis“sometimesjustified”;andoneparticipant(1%)saiditis“rarelyjustified.”ThecorrespondingresultsforourFebruary2016U.S.Muslimsamplewere:Neverjustified(84%),rarelyjustified(6%),sometimesjustified(7%),oftenjustified(6,3%).ThusourSyrianparticipantsarelikeU.S.Muslimsintheirstrongrejectionofsuicidebombing.WhatisyouropinionoftheIslamicmilitantgroupinIraqandSyriaknownasIslamicStateorISISorISIL?Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableviewofthisgroup?Syrianparticipantsagainhadanear‐unanimousresponse:100participants(99%)saidtheyhadan“unfavorable”opinionofISIS;oneparticipant(1%)saidhewas“notsure.”ThecorrespondingresultsforourFebruary2016U.S.Muslimssamplewere:80percentreportedan“unfavorable”opinion;11percentreporteda“somewhatunfavorable”opinion;4percentreporteda“somewhatfavorable”opinion;and5percentreporteda“veryfavorable”opinion.HereagainSyrianparticipantsarelikeU.S.MuslimsintheirstrongrejectionofISIS.SomepeoplesaytheUnitedStatesofAmerica’s‘WaronTerrorism’isawaragainstIslam.DoyoufeeltheU.S.isfightingawaronterrorismorawaragainstIslam?Mostparticipants(57,56%)saidtheybelievetheUnitedStatesiswagingawaragainstIslam.Thirteenparticipants(13%)saiditwas“both.”Three(3%)saidtheybelieveditisjustawaronterrorism.And28(28%)saidtheywerenotsureorrefusedtoanswer.ThecorrespondingresultsforourFebruary2016U.S.Muslimssamplewere:47percentseeingthewaronterrorismasawaragainstIslam,17percentseeingitasawaronterrorism,and36percentunsure.ThisquestionshowsabouthalfofbothSyriansandU.S.MuslimsseeingawaronIslam.SomepeoplesaythatUnitedStatesofAmerica’sforeignpoliciesaredictatedbyJewishinterests.DoyoubelievethatU.S.foreignpoliciesareorarenotdictatedbyJewishinterests?Alargemajorityofparticipants(90,89%)agreedthatU.S.policiesaredictatedbyJewishinterests.Onlythreeparticipantsdisagreedwiththatstatement,andeight(8%)saidtheywere“notsure.”Incontrast,inthe2016sampleofU.S.Muslimsonly21percentagreedwiththisstatement;36percentdisagreed;and43percentsaidtheywere“notsure.”Figure9(below)comparespercentagesofSyrianparticipantsandU.S.Muslimsendorsingthemostradicalresponsestothesethreeitems.



Figure9:PercentofU.S.MuslimsandSyriansgivingmostradicalansweroneachoffivequestionsassessingradicalopinions

CorrelationsamongopinionquestionsTotrytounderstandwhatpredictsradicalopinion,wecorrelatedtheabovefivequestionsaboutradicalopinionwithoneanotherandwithotherquestionsonthesurvey.Becausetwoofthesequestionshadalmostzerovariability(suicidebombingandopinionofISIS),thesetwoquestionsfailedtoproducemeaningfulcorrelationswithotheritems.TheotherthreeitemsdidshowsignificantcorrelationsOpinionthatJewishinterestsdictateU.S.foreignpolicycorrelatedsignificantlywithseeingthewaronterrorismaswaronIslam,r(72)=‐.24,p=.05.Inotherwords,participantswhobelievedthatJewishinterestsdictateU.S.foreignpolicyalsobelievedtheUnitedStatesiswagingawaronIslam.Additionally,beliefthattheUnitedStatesiswagingawaronIslamcorrelatedsignificantlywithblamingtheUnitedStatesforthekillingandsufferinginSyria,r(69)=‐.29,p=.02.Thus,participantswhobelievedtheUnitedStatesisfightingawaragainstIslamalsobelievedtheUnitedStateswasresponsibleforthekillingandsufferinginSyria.Similarly,beliefthatJewishinterestsdictateU.S.foreignpolicycorrelatedwithblamingtheUnitedStatesforthekillingandsufferinginSyria,r(88)=.28,p=.01.ThequestionaboutanationofUnitedIslamalsoproducedsignificantcorrelations.Thus,itcorrelatedwithblamingAssadforthekillingandsufferinginSyria(r(75)=.42,p<.01).Likewise,itcorrelatedwith

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blamingRussiaforthekillingandsufferinginSyria(r(78)=.27,p=.02),andwithblamingIranian‐backedgroupslikeHezbollah(r(71)=.31,p=.01).ItcorrelatednegativelywithblamingTurkeyforthekillingandsufferinginSyria(r(79)=‐.24,p=.04).Therefore,endorsementofaUnitedIslamwaspredictiveofblamingAssad,Russia,andIranforthewarinSyria,andNOTblamingTurkey.RecallthatamajorityofparticipantsassignedresponsibilityforcivilwarsufferingtotheUnitedStates,ISIS,andTurkeybutnotAssad,Russia,orIranian‐backedgroups.AssigningresponsibilityfortheSyrianwartoal‐Qa’idaorISIScorrelatedwithbeliefthatlifehasbecomeharderforresidentsofparticipants’hometowns,r(87)=.27,p=.01.Similarly,perceptionthatworkhasbecomehardertocomebyinparticipants’hometowncorrelatedwithblamingAssad’sforcesforthekillingandsufferinginSyria(r(83)=.22,p=.05);withblamingRussiaforthekillingandsufferinginSyria(r(87)=.29,p<.01);andwithblamingKurdsforthekillingandsufferinginSyria(r(66)=.25,p=.04).

FactoranalysisofopinioncorrelationsTosimplifythesepatternsofcorrelation,weconductedafactoranalysiswithObliminrotationandanextractionoftwofactorsusingquestionsaboutwhotoblameforthewarinSyria(Russia,Turkey,U.S.AssadorIran);questionsaboutwhetherlifeintheparticipant’shometown(hasitbecomemoredifficult,andhasworkbecomehardertocomebysincethecivilwarbegan);andquestionsaboutradicalopinionsthatshowedvariabilityinresponses(JewishinterestscontrollingU.S.foreignpolicy;U.S.wagingawaronIslam;andsupportforanationofUnitedIslam).Asexpected,thesolutionobtainedthroughfactoranalysisconvergedinfouriterations,demonstratingagoodfitwiththetwo‐factormodelobservedinthepatternofcorrelations.Thetwofactorsdidnotcorrelatesignificantly(r=.02,ns.).PleaseseeAppendixCforfactorloadingsofthetwofactors.ThefirstfactorcontainedquestionsthatassignedblameforthewarinSyriatoRussia,Iran,andAssad’sgovernment.Italsocontainedsupportforthe“UnitedIslam.”Thus,thepro‐Westernpositionaboutthewar’sculpritsisrelatedtoendorsementofanationofUnitedIslam.ThesecondfactorcontainedquestionsthatassignedblameforthewarinSyriatotheUnitedStates.ItalsocontainedquestionsaboutJewishinterestsdictatingU.S.foreignpolicy,abouttheUnitedStates’wagingawaronIslam,andaboutlivingconditionsinone’shometowngettinghardersincethebeginningofthewar.Therefore,thebeliefsconsistentwiththeWest’representationofeventsinSyria—thatthewarwascausedandfueledmainlybyAssad’sgovernmentforces,RussiaandIran—arebothrareinourSyriansampleandalsopredictiveofendorsementofaNationofIslam.Ontheotherhand,beliefsconsistentwiththeAssad’sgovernment’srepresentationofthewarinSyriaasbeingtheUnitedStates’responsibilitycorrelatedwithbeliefthattheUnitedStatesiswagingawaron



Islam,thattheU.S.foreignpolicyiscontrolledbytheJewishinterests,andperceptionthatlifehasgottenharderforpeopleinone’shometown.Toseewhetherthetwoopinionfactorsarerelatedtowhichpoliticalactorcontrolstheparticipant’stownofresidence,wecorrelatedthequestionaboutcontrollingpowerwiththefactorscores.Factorscoresassignanumbertoeachparticipantbasedonhowcorrelatedhisresponseswerewiththerestofthesample’sresponsesontheitemswhichloadedoneachfactor.Thuseachparticipantgottwoscores,oneforeachfactor.FactorscoreforFactor1(pro‐Westernopinionaboutthewar’scauses;supportfortheUnitedStatesofIslam)correlatedsignificantlywithwhethertheparticipants’townwascontrolledbythegovernment(r(34)=.64,p<.01).Thus,participantswhowereNOTresidingingovernment‐controlledtownsweremuchmorelikelytoblameAssad’sgovernmentforces,RussiaandIranforthewar;theywerealsomorelikelytosupporttheideaofaUnitedNationofIslamthanwereparticipantswhoresidedingovernment‐controlledtowns.ThecorrelationbetweenFactor2andthepowercontrollingone’stownwasnotsignificant,r(34)=.20,ns.Therefore,participantswereequallylikelytoblametheUnitedStates;tobelieveintheUnitedStates’wagingawaronIslam,orthatJewishinterestscontroltheU.S.foreignpolicy‐‐regardlessofwhethertheirtownwascontrolledbythegovernmentorbyoneofotherpoliticalplayersonthegroundinSyria.

DiscussionThesurveyofSyrianshadatwo‐foldobjective.Thefirstwastodeterminewhetheraquickturnaroundtelephonesurveywasfeasibleinacountryrackedbycivilwar.ThesecondwastoassessopinionsaboutthecivilwarinSyria,abouttheUnitedStates,andaboutradicalIslamistideasandactions.

UtilityofquickturnaroundtelephonesurveyduringcivilwarTheResultssectionofthisreportdetailssubstantivefindingsfromthesurvey.SeveralresultswereunexpectedandinsharpcontrastwithcomparabledataobtainedinarecentsurveyofU.S.Muslims.Thesedataspeaktothefeasibilitybutalsototheaddedintelligencevalueofusingthepollingmethodstestedhere.AsapilottestofanewmethodoflearningaboutSyrianopinions,oursurveycanthereforebeconsideredsuccessful:aquick‐turnaroundtelephonesurveyfromEuropeancallingcentersispossibleeveninaMiddleEasterncountrysufferingcivilwar.AmajorsurpriseaboutoursurveyparticipantswasthatabouthalfwereSunniandlivinginSyriainthesametowntheywereinbeforethecivilwarbegan.AccordingtotheCIAWorldFactbook, thepre‐warSyrianpopulationwasSunni74percent;Alawi,Ismaili,andShia13percent;Christian10percent(includesOrthodox,Uniate,andNestorian);andDruze3percent.Itappearsthat,ingovernmentcontrolledareas,SunniremainthepredominantreligionbutopinionresultsindicatethatremainingSunniarepro‐government.



AnothersurpriseaboutourparticipantswasthatonehundredpercentwerelivinginSyria.WehadexpectedthatmanyrefugeesfromSyriawouldstillbeusingtheirSyriantelephones;indeedweincludedsurveyquestionsaboutknowingotherrefugeesandwheretheyhadmovedto.Mostofourstay‐at‐homeparticipantsindeeddidknowotherswhohadlefttownsincethecivilwarbegan.

SurprisesinopinionresultsAmongtheunexpectedfindingswereopinionsaboutwhoisresponsibleforthekillingandsufferinginSyria.IncontrasttopopularopinionintheWest,SyrianparticipantsmostlydidnotblameBasharal‐Assad,Russia,orIranian‐backedgroups.Instead,themajorityofparticipantsassignedresponsibilitytotheUnitedStates,toISIS,andtoTurkey.ThisresultshouldbecarefullyweighedagainstthefactthatmostparticipantsreportedtheirtowntobeunderthecontrolofAssad’sgovernmentforces.Infact,thecorrelationbetweenfactoranalysisscoresthatcontainedquestionsaboutassigningblameforthewarandthequestionofwhocontrolsparticipants’townshowedaveryhighcorrelation(.64).Thiscorrelationindicatesthatthepro‐Westernpositionaboutthecausesofthewarwasmostlyheldbythefewparticipantswhowerenotingovernment‐controlledareasofSyria.Onepossibleinterpretationisthatthereisconvincingpro‐governmentpropagandaonthegroundingovernmentcontrolledareas—throughnewscontrolledintelevision,radio,orprintmedia.Anotherpossibilityisthatsurveyparticipantswereself‐selectedonthebasisoftheirpositiveattitudetowardAssad’sgovernment,withtheself‐selectiontakingplacewhentheychosetostayintheirhometownratherthanfleeanareaofgovernmentcontrol.Thegreatmajorityofparticipants(87%)reportedthattheyhavelivedinthesametownsincebeforethecivilwarbegan.Atthesametime,mostknewsomeonewhohasmovedtoadifferentlocationsincethebeginningofthewar.Takentogether,thesetworesultssuggestthatparticipantschosetostaywhenotherschosetoleavetheirtown,possiblybecausetheyagreewiththegovernmentandwelcomedgovernmentcontrolovertheirtown.Athirdpossibilityisthatthoselivingingovernment‐controlledareaswereafraidtoexpressopinionscontrarytotheinterestsandinterpretationsofBasharal‐Assadandhisgovernment.Withoutadditionalresearch,itisnotpossibletoevaluatethispossibilityempirically(seeDiscussion],butwethinkitisunlikelythatfearcontrolledopinionsinatelephonesurvey(mostlycellphones)inwhichparticipantswereneveraskedfortheirnames.Inparticular,asmostparticipantsreportedknowingsomeonewhohadlefttheirtown,individualsfearfulofthegovernmentwouldhavelefttownwhentheyhadthechance.Insum,webelievethatthemajorityofparticipantswereindeedpro‐governmentanddidnotsharetheviewsofmostWesternobserversormostU.S.MuslimsaboutwhoisresponsibleforthekillingandsufferinginSyria.Recently51U.S.diplomatssignedaninternalmemocriticizingPresidentObama’spolicyonSyriaandurgingtheU.S.tocarryoutmilitarystrikesagainsttheBasharal‐Assad’sgovernmentforces.1If

1 Landler, M. (2016), 51 U.S. Diplomats Urge Strikes Against Assad in Syria. New York Times, June 16.



implemented,thissuggestionwouldproducecasualtiesamongSyriancivilianslikeourparticipants,whoalreadyblametheUnitedStatesformostofthecivilwar’skillingandsuffering.Increasedanti‐U.S.radicalizationwouldbethepredictableresultofanti‐AssadescalationbytheUnitedStates.AnothersurpriseinourresultscamefromquestionsaboutsupportforsuicidebombingandopinionofISIS.Syrianparticipantsshowedanearzerolevelofradicalizationonthesequestions,lowerthanthatofU.S.Muslims.ThisresultisagainconsistentwiththeideathatoursurveyparticipantswereSyriangovernmentsupporterswhoseeISISanditssuicidebombtacticsasathreattothegovernment.Perhapsthemostimportantsurpriseinourresultsisthatreligion,specificallySunniversusnon‐Sunni,wasnotassociatedwithanyofouropinionitems.ThecivilwarinSyriaisoftenseenasaresponsebyaSunnimajoritytodominationbyaminoritycoalitionofAlawites,Shi’a,Druze,andChristians.ItshouldbeacautiontothisperspectivetofindSunninodifferentfromnon‐Sunniinourresults.AnimportantelementoftheconflictisthusbetweenSunnifactions:SunniwhosupportthegovernmentandSunniwhosupportIslamicState.Thiskindofin‐groupconflicthasrecentlybeenhighlightedforSunniinIraq,someofwhomsupportIslamicStatewhileotherssupporttheShi’adominatedgovernmentofIraq.2Finally,unexpectedfindingscamefrom(1)aquestionaboutU.S.foreignpolicybeingcontrolledbyJewishinterests(mostSyrianparticipantsagreed,whilemostU.S.Muslimsdisagreed);(2)aquestionabouttheUnitedStates’wagingawaronIslam(abouthalfofbothSyrianparticipantsandU.S.Muslimsagreedwiththisstatement);and(3)aquestionaboutadesirefora“nationofUnitedIslam”(mostSyrianparticipantsrejectedit,whereasmostU.S.Muslimsendorsedit).

DiagnosticvalueofunexpectedfindingsTakentogether,thesefindingspaintaninterestingpicture.Thetwomostexplicitquestionsaboutradicalization—endorsementofsuicidebombingandsupportforISIS—proveduselessinassessingtheradicalizationofSyrianparticipants,becausetheirresponseswerenearunanimouslyanti‐radicalization.Moreusefulisthefactthatthreemoreimplicitquestionsrelatedtoradicalization—thattheUnitedStatesiswagingawaragainstIslam,thatU.S.foreignpolicyiscontrolledbyJewishinterests,andsupportforaunitedNationofIslam—werepredictiveofparticipants’responsesaboutwhoistoblamefortheSyrianwar.Participantswhoheldpro‐AssadgovernmentpositionontheSyrianWar—thattheUnitedStates,ISIS,andTurkeyweretoblame—weremorelikelytoagreethatthewaronterrorismisawaronIslam;thatU.S.foreignpolicyiscontrolledbyJewishinterests;andtorejectthenotionofaUnitedNationofIslam.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/17/world/middleeast/syria‐assad‐obama‐airstrikes‐diplomats‐memo.html?_r=0 2 Arango, T., & Hassan, F. (2016), A War of Brothers in Iraq: ‘I Will Kill Him With My Own Hands.’ New York Times, June 18. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/19/world/middleeast/iraq‐isis‐sunnis‐sectarian‐falluja.html?_r=0



Ontheotherhand,theminoritypro‐WesternpositiononwhoistoblameforthewarinSyriawasalsopredictedbytheseimplicitquestions,thoughtherelationwasinverse.Thus,disagreeingthatthewaronterrorismisawaronIslam,thatU.S.foreignpolicyiscontrolledbytheJewishinterests,andagreeingthatthereshouldbeaunitedNationofIslamwasrelatedtoblamingAssadandRussiaforthewarinSyria,andexculpatingtheUnitedStatesandTurkey.Apro‐Westernpositionwasalsopredictedbytwoquestionsunrelatedtopoliticalopinions,namelyperceptionthatlifehasbecomehardersincethewarinone’shometownandperceptionthatworkhasbecomehardertocomebysincethewarbegan.PerhapsinconsideringgrantingasylumtorefugeesfromSyria,thesequestionscanbeusefulindeterminingwhetherindividualsareharboringviewshostiletotheUnitedStatesanditsallies,andwhichindividualsareinsteadholdinggenuinelypro‐Westernviews.AquestionaboutsupportingaunitedNationofIslam,forinstance,mayelicitmoretruthfulresponsesthanifthedesiredanswerwasmoreobvious.InsummarythesurveywassuccessfulindeterminingthataquickturnaroundtelephonesurveysarefeasibleandusefulinMuslimcountries,eveninthemidstofcivil‐warviolence.Thedataobtainedinthissurveysuggestedseveralinterestingimplicationsforsecurityefforts.

LimitationsandFutureDirectionsInfuturesurveysofSyriansthelimitationspresentedbyhaving87percentofparticipantslivingingovernment‐controlledareasshouldbeaddressed.Thiscanbedonethroughstrategicsamplingofparticipantsfromareasdiversenotonlyingeographybutalsoinpoliticalactorsthatcontrolthem.ItmightalsobeinformativetosampleSyrianrefugeesinrefugeecampsinTurkeyorinEurope,tocomparetheirresponsestothoseofSyrianslivinginSyria.Additionally,futuresurveysofSyriansmightusemeta‐opinionquestions(opinionsaboutopinionsofothers,i.e.“thinkingnownotaboutyourself,butaboutotherSyrians,howmanywouldyousayagreewiththefollowingstatement…).Previousresearchbytheinvestigatorssuggeststhatmeta‐opinionquestionscanallowsomeguardedparticipantstoexpresstheiropinionsmoreopenly.



AppendixA:SyrianBarometerSurveyquestionnaire

MAC2016SyrianBarometerSurvey

BrynMawrCollegeWBS#310.209.00924.1

AccountExecutive:KarlFeldProjectManager:RyanTullyContractedLengthofInterview:10minutesStartFieldwork:05/06/2016EndFieldwork:05/23/2016DocumentName:310.209.00924.1_2016SurveyofSyriansviaSyrianTelephoneExchanges_v10

Scripter:PleasecreateDOV_TeleSource’,andusethefollowingvalues:1.Landline2.CellPhoneI.INTRODUCTIONHi,thisis_______callingfromGfK,anindependentglobalmarketresearchfirm.Today,weareconductingaresearchsurveynationwideacrossSyriaonissueswhichimpactyouandyourfamily.Ifyouqualify,thesurveytakeslessthan10minutes.Thisisnotasalescall,andwearenotsellinganything.Weareamarketingresearchcompanyandyouridentityandallofyourresponseswillremaintotallyanonymous.Werealizethatyoumaynotknowtheanswerstosomeofourquestionsormaynotbecomfortableansweringsomeofourquestions.Youcanindicatethatyouare‘notsure’oftheanswerorwould‘prefernottoanswer’foranyofourquestions.INTROB[S]MayIpleasespeaktoamaleinyourhouseholdwhois18yearsofageorolder?Interviewer:Donotreadresponses.1.Yes2.NoBase:ShowifINTROB=2‘No’or‐1‘Refused’.INTROC[S]Isthereabettertimeordatewherewecouldcallbacktospeakwithamaleinyourhousehold,whois18yearsofageorolder?Scripter:Pleaseterminatefollowingresponse.II.SCREENERBase:AllRespondentsQAGE[Q,RANGE–1900‐1997]



Thankyouforspeakingwithmetoday.Ifirsthaveafewquestionsaboutyourgeneralbackground.Inwhatyearwereyouborn?Interviewer:Donotreadresponses.Year[RANGE–1900‐1997]98.Notsure99.RefusedScripter:Pleaseterminateiftherespondentisbornafter1997oriftheyarenotsureorrefusetoprovide

theiryearofbirth.Base:AllRespondentsQ1A[S]AreyoucurrentlylivinginSyria?Interviewer:Donotreadresponses.1.Yes2.No98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:ShowifQ1A=2‘No’or98‘Notsure’or99‘Refused’Q1B[S]HaveyoulivedwithinSyriaatanytimeoverthepast12months?Interviewer:Donotreadresponses.1.Yes2.No98.Notsure99.RefusedScripter:PleaseterminateifQ1B=2‘No’or98‘Notsure’or99‘Refused’Base:ShowifQ1B=1‘Yes’Q1C[S]Inwhatcountryareyoulivingintoday?Areyoucurrentlylivingin…Interviewer:Pleasereadthefollowinglist.1.Turkey2.Lebanon3.Egypt4.Jordan5.AEuropeancountry



6.Someothercountry,notinEurope98.Notsure[VOLUNTEERED]99.Refused[VOLUNTEERED]Base:Q1A=1‘Yes’Q1D[S]DoyoucurrentlyliveinthesamecityortowninSyriathatyoulivedinbeforethecivilwarbegan?Interviewer:Donotreadresponses.1.Yes2.No98.Notsure99.RefusedScripter:PleasecreateDOV_ResStat,usethevaluelabel‘Respondent’sSyrianResidencyStatus,andusethe

followingvalues: IFQ1A=1‘Yes’andQ1D=1‘Yes’THENDOV_ResStat=1‘Syrianresidentstilllivinginhometown’; IFQ1A=1‘Yes’andQ1D=2‘No’or98‘Notsure’or99‘Refused’THENDOV_ResStat=2‘Syrianresident

livinginnewhometown’; IFQ1A=2‘No’or98‘Notsure’or99‘Refused’andQ1B=1‘Yes’THENDOV_ResStat=3‘Syrianliving

outsideofSyria’;Base:AskifDOV_ResStat=1‘Syrianresidentstilllivinginhometown’or2‘Syrianresidentlivinginnew

hometown’Q2A[O,SMALLTEXTBOX]Whatcityortowndoyoucurrentlylivein?Interviewer:Donotreadresponses.City/town[INSERTSMALLTEXTBOX]98.Notsure99.RefusedInterviewer:Ifrespondentrefuses,pleaseusethefollowingprompt:‘Wewouldappreciateyourresponseto

thisquestion.Yourresponseswillremainanonymousandwewillnotsharethisinformationwithanyone.

Interviewer:Pleaseensurethatyouclearlyrecordthecityortownsinceitwillbeusedfortheremaining

surveyquestions.Base:AskifDOV_ResStat=1‘Syrianresidentstilllivinginhometown’or2‘Syrianresidentlivinginnew

hometown’Q2A1[S]



Whichofthefollowingpowerstodaycontrols[IFDOV_RESSTAT=1OR2INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2A;IFDOV_RESSTAT=1OR2ANDNORESPONSEWASGIVENFORQ2AUSE‘YOURCURRENTCITYORTOWN’]?Isitcontrolledby…Interviewer:Pleasereadthefollowinglist.1.Basharal‐Assad’sgovernmentforces?2.ASunnimilitantgrouplikeAlQaedaorDaesh?3.AnIranian‐backedgrouplikeHezbollah?4.Russianforces?5.Kurdishforces?6.Turkishforces?7.Someothergroup?98.Notsure[VOLUNTEERED]99.Refused[VOLUNTEERED]Base:AskifDOV_ResStat=2‘Syrianresidentlivinginnewhometown’or3‘SyrianlivingoutsideofSyria’Q2B[O,SMALLTEXTBOX]WhatcityortowninSyriadidyouliveinbeforethecivilwarbegan?Interviewer:Donotreadresponses.City/town[INSERTSMALLTEXTBOX]98.Notsure99.RefusedInterviewer:Ifrespondentrefuses,pleaseusethefollowingprompt:‘Wewouldappreciateyourresponseto

thisquestion.Yourresponseswillremainanonymousandwewillnotsharethisinformationwithanyone.

Interviewer:Pleaseensurethatyouclearlyrecordthecityortownsinceitwillbeusedfortheremaining

surveyquestions.Base:AllRespondentsQ3[S]Inwhatgovernorateormuhafazahwas[IFDOV_RESSTAT=1INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2A;IFDOV_RESSTAT=2OR3INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2B;IFDOV_RESSTAT=1ANDNORESPONSEWASGIVENFORQ2AUSE‘YOURCURRENTCITYORTOWN’;IFDOV_RESSTAT=2OR3ANDNORESPONSEWASGIVENFORQ2B,PLEASEDEFAULTTO‘THECITYORTOWNINSYRIATHATYOUPREVIOUSLYLIVEDIN’]beforethecivilwarbegan?Wasthegovernorateormuhafazahin…Interviewer:Pleasereadthefollowinglist.1.Aleppo2.Damascus3.Daraa4.Deirez‐Zor5.Hama6.Al‐Hasakah7.Homs8.Idlib



9.Latakia10.Quneitra11.Ar‐Raqqah12.RifDimashq13.As‐Suwayda14.Tartus15.Someothergovernorateormuhafazah98.Notsure[VOLUNTEERED]99.Refused[VOLUNTEERED]Base:AllRespondentsQ4[S]Overthepast12months,doyouthinklivingconditionsin[IFDOV_RESSTAT=1INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2A;IFDOV_RESSTAT=2OR3INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2B;IFDOV_RESSTAT=1ANDNORESPONSEWASGIVENFORQ2AUSE‘YOURCURRENTCITYORTOWN’;IFDOV_RESSTAT=2OR3ANDNORESPONSEWASGIVENFORQ2B,PLEASEDEFAULTTO‘THECITYORTOWNINSYRIATHATYOUPREVIOUSLYLIVEDIN’]havebecomeharder,easier,orhastherebeennochangesincethecivilwarbeganforresidentslivingthere?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Harder2.Easier3.Nochange98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ5[S]Overthepast12months,doyouthinkfindingworkin[IFDOV_RESSTAT=1INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2A;IFDOV_RESSTAT=2OR3INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2B;IFDOV_RESSTAT=1ANDNORESPONSEWASGIVENFORQ2AUSE‘YOURCURRENTCITYORTOWN’;IFDOV_RESSTAT=2OR3ANDNORESPONSEWASGIVENFORQ2B,PLEASEDEFAULTTO‘THECITYORTOWNINSYRIATHATYOUPREVIOUSLYLIVEDIN’]hasbecomeharder,easier,orhastherebeennochangeforresidentslivingtheresincethecivilwarbegan?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Harder2.Easier3.Nochange98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ6[S]Overthepast12months,doyouthink[IFDOV_RESSTAT=1INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2A;IFDOV_RESSTAT=2OR3INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2B;IFDOV_RESSTAT=1ANDNORESPONSEWASGIVENFORQ2AUSE‘YOURCURRENTCITYORTOWN’;IFDOV_RESSTAT=2OR3ANDNORESPONSEWASGIVENFORQ2B,PLEASEDEFAULTTO‘THECITYORTOWNINSYRIATHATYOUPREVIOUSLYLIVEDIN’]hasbecomemoresafe,lesssafe,orhastherebeennochangesincethecivilwarbeganfortheresidentslivingthere?



Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Moresafe2.Lesssafe3.Nochange98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ7[S]SomepeoplesaythatMuslimslivinginpredominantlyMuslimcountrieswouldbebetteroffifallthesecountriesjoinedtogetherinanationof“UnitedIslam”stretchingfromMoroccotoIndonesia.Doyoupersonallyagreeordisagreewiththisidea?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Agree2.Disagree98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ8[S]SomepeoplethinkthatsuicidebombingandotherformsofviolenceagainstciviliantargetsarejustifiedinordertodefendIslamfromitsenemies.Otherpeoplebelievethat,nomatterwhatthereason,thiskindofviolenceisneverjustified.DoyoupersonallyfeelthatthiskindofviolenceisoftenjustifiedtodefendIslam,sometimesjustified,rarelyjustified,orneverjustified?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Oftenjustified2.Sometimesjustified3.Rarelyjustified4.Neverjustified98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ9[S]SomepeoplesaytheUnitedStatesofAmerica’s‘WaronTerrorism’isawaragainstIslam.DoyoufeeltheU.S.isfightingawaronterrorismorawaragainstIslam?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Waronterrorism2.WaragainstIslam



3.Both98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ10[S]SomepeoplesaythatUnitedStatesofAmerica’sforeignpoliciesaredictatedbyJewishinterests.DoyoubelievethatU.S.foreignpoliciesareorarenotdictatedbyJewishinterests?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.U.S.policiesaredictatedbyJewishinterests2.U.S.policiesarenotdictatedbyJewishinterests98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ11[S]WhatisyouropinionoftheIslamicmilitantgroupinIraqandSyriaknownasIslamicStateorISISorISIL?Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableviewofthisgroup?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Favorable2.Unfavorable98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ12[S]HowmuchdoyoublameBasharalAssadforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?Doyoublamehimverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Verymuch2.Somewhat3.Alittle4.Notatall98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ13[S]HowmuchdoyoublameSunnimilitantgroupslikeAlQaedaandDaeshforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?Doyoublamethesegroupsverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.



1.Verymuch2.Somewhat3.Alittle4.Notatall98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ14[S]HowmuchdoyoublameIranian‐backedgroupslikeHezbollahforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?Doyoublamethesegroupsverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Verymuch2.Somewhat3.Alittle4.Notatall 98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ15[S]HowmuchdoyoublameTurkeyforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?DoyoublameTurkeyverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Verymuch2.Somewhat3.Alittle4.Notatall98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ16[S]HowmuchdoyoublameRussiaforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?DoyoublameRussiaverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Verymuch2.Somewhat3.Alittle4.Notatall98.Notsure99.Refused



Base:AllRespondentsQ17[S]HowmuchdoyoublametheUnitedStatesofAmericaforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?DoyoublametheUnitedStatesverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Verymuch2.Somewhat3.Alittle4.Notatall98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ17A[S]HowmuchdoyoublametheKurdsforthekillingandsufferinginSyria?DoyoublametheKurdsverymuch,somewhat,alittle,ornotatall?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Verymuch2.Somewhat3.Alittle4.Notatall98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ18[S]Besidesyourselfandyourfamilymembers,doyouknowanyonefrom[IFDOV_RESSTAT=1INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2A;IFDOV_RESSTAT=2OR3INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2B;IFDOV_RESSTAT=1ANDNORESPONSEWASGIVENFORQ2AUSE‘YOURCURRENTCITYORTOWN’;IFDOV_RESSTAT=2OR3ANDNORESPONSEWASGIVENFORQ2B,PLEASEDEFAULTTO‘THECITYORTOWNINSYRIATHATYOUPREVIOUSLYLIVEDIN’]whomovedtoanotherplaceafterthecivilwarbegan?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Yes2.No98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AskifQ18=1‘Yes’Q18A[GRID,SPERSTATEMENT]Pleaseanswer‘Yes’or‘No’tothefollowingquestions.



Doyouknowanyonefrom[IFDOV_RESSTAT=1INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2A;IFDOV_RESSTAT=2OR3INSERTNAMEOFCITYORTOWNINDICATEDINQ2B]whomovedto…Interviewer:Pleasereadthefollowinglist.Statementsinrows:Q19.AnothertowninSyria?Q20.Lebanon?Q21.Jordan?Q22.Turkey?Q23.Iraq?Q24.AEuropeancountry?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.Answersincolumns:1.Yes2.No98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ25[Q,0–20]Howmanyyearsofschooldidyoucomplete?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.Years[RANGE–0‐20]98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ26[S]Areyoumarried?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Yes2.No98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AskifQ26=1‘Yes’Q27[S]Isyourwifelivingwithyounow?



Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Yes2.No98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AskifQ27=1‘Yes’Q28A[S]Notcountingyourwife,areothermembersofyourfamilylivingwithyouornearyounow?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Yes2.No98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:Askif(Q26=2‘No’or98‘Notsure’or99‘Refused’)or(Q27=2‘No’or98‘Notsure’or99‘Refused’)Q28B[S]Aremembersofyourfamilylivingwithyouornearyounow?Interviewer:Donotreadresponsesbelow.1.Yes2.No98.Notsure99.RefusedBase:AllRespondentsQ29[S]Whichreligioustraditionareyoupartof?Interviewer:Pleasereadthefollowinglist.1.SunniMoslem2.Shi’aMoslem3.AlawaiteMoslem4.Druze5.RomanCatholic6.Adventist7.Chaldean(Kaldani,Kaldean)8.Other[INSERTSMALLTEXTBOX]9.Notpartofanyreligioustradition98.Notsure[VOLUNTEERED]99.Refused[VOLUNTEERED]



Scripter:IftherespondentisterminatedforQ1Bfor2‘No’or98‘Notsure’or’99Refused’,pleaseusethefollowingprompt:

Thankyouforyourparticipation.Thoseareallofthesurveyquestions. Iftherespondentsuccessfullycompletesthesurvey,pleaseusethefollowingprompt: Thankyouforparticipatinginoursurveytoday.Wewanttoremindyouthatyouridentityandyour

responseswillremainanonymous.Haveagood[morning/day/night].ENDOFQUESTIONNAIRE



AppendixB:DemographicFrequenciesFrequenciesofdemographicquestionsabout:

participants’townoforigin; participants’presentlocation; participants’locationinthebeginningofthewar; participants’contactswithanySyrianswhohavemovedtovariouslocationssincethe

beginningofthewarinSyria; break‐downofopen‐endedresponsesto“other”inthequestionaboutreligion; patternmatrixoffactoranalysisofquestionsaboutassigningblameforthewarand

questionsaboutradicalopinions.

Q2A What city or town do you currently live in? Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

Tartus 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 @ طرطوس'

Jandairis 1 1.0 1.0 2.0 @ جنديرس]

Al Damaat @ Damat 1 1.0 1.0 3.0

Al Ma'eenah @ Al Ma'unah

1 1.0 1.0 4.0

Al Qaherah @ Al-Qahira / al-Safa

1 1.0 1.0 5.0

Al Sham @ Damascus 1 1.0 1.0 5.9

Al Suwayda @ Al-Suwayda

2 2.0 2.0 7.9

Aleppo @ Aleppo 1 1.0 1.0 8.9

Aleraa @ 'Ira 1 1.0 1.0 9.9

AlLatheqieh @ Latakia 1 1.0 1.0 10.9

Allepo @ Aleppo 1 1.0 1.0 11.9

alsoweda @ As-Suwayda 1 1.0 1.0 12.9

Alswaida @ As-Suwayda 1 1.0 1.0 13.9

Amneh @ Amneh 1 1.0 1.0 14.9

Auqwadie Barada @ Wadi Barada

1 1.0 1.0 15.8

Dair Hannah @ Dair Hannah

1 1.0 1.0 16.8

Damas @ Damascus 1 1.0 1.0 17.8

Damascuc @ Damascus 2 2.0 2.0 19.8

Damascus @ Damascus 3 3.0 3.0 22.8



Damasucus @ Damascus 1 1.0 1.0 23.8

Dara @ Dara'a 2 2.0 2.0 25.7

Dara @ Daraa 1 1.0 1.0 26.7

Demashq @ Damascus 2 2.0 2.0 28.7

Edraa @ Daraa 1 1.0 1.0 29.7

Garamana @ Jaramana 1 1.0 1.0 30.7

Halab @ Aleppo 1 1.0 1.0 31.7

Halb @ Aleppo 1 1.0 1.0 32.7

Haleb @ Aleppo 3 3.0 3.0 35.6

Hama @ Hama 4 4.0 4.0 39.6

Homs @ Homs 2 2.0 2.0 41.6

Latakia @ Latakia 2 2.0 2.0 43.6

Lathqiyeh @ Latakia 1 1.0 1.0 44.6

Lathqyeh @ Latakia 1 1.0 1.0 45.5

Not sure 1 1.0 1.0 46.5

Refused 8 7.9 7.9 54.5

Salamiya @ Salamiyah 1 1.0 1.0 55.4

Tartos @ Tartus 2 2.0 2.0 57.4

Tartous @ Tartus 1 1.0 1.0 58.4

Usal Alward @ Usal Al Ward

1 1.0 1.0 59.4

Abu Faraj 1 1.0 1.0 60.4 @ فرج ابو

Tall Ad Dirrah 1 1.0 1.0 61.4 @ الره اتل

Izara'a 1 1.0 1.0 62.4 @ ازرع

Latakia 2 2.0 2.0 64.4 @ االدقية

Latakia 1 1.0 1.0 65.3 @ االذقيه

Al-Hasakah 1 1.0 1.0 66.3 @ الحزقي

Al-Hasakah 1 1.0 1.0 67.3 @ الحسكة

Al-Hasakah 1 1.0 1.0 68.3 @ الحسكه

Ad Darbasiyah 1 1.0 1.0 69.3 @ الدرباسية

As-Suwayda 1 1.0 1.0 70.3 @ السويداء

Der 1 1.0 1.0 71.3 @ الضير

Damascus 1 1.0 1.0 72.3 @ العباسيين

Busra Al @ الرومانيه القلعهSham

1 1.0 1.0 73.3

Al-Kafat 1 1.0 1.0 74.3 @ الكاففات

Latakia 1 1.0 1.0 75.2 @ الالذقية



Latakia 1 1.0 1.0 76.2 @ الالذقيه

Nubl 1 1.0 1.0 77.2 @ النبول

-Eastern AL @ الشرقية النشوةNashwa

1 1.0 1.0 78.2

Banyas 1 1.0 1.0 79.2 @ بانياس

Aleppo 4 4.0 4.0 83.2 @ حلب

Hama 1 1.0 1.0 84.2 @ حماه

Homs 1 1.0 1.0 85.1 @ حمص

Dara'a 1 1.0 1.0 86.1 @ درعا

Daraa 1 1.0 1.0 87.1 @ درعا

Damascus 5 5.0 5.0 92.1 @ دمشق

Deir Ez Zor 1 1.0 1.0 93.1 الزور دير

Jaramana 1 1.0 1.0 94.1 @ زرمانة

Safita 1 1.0 1.0 95.0 @ ساقطة

As-Suwayda 1 1.0 1.0 96.0 @ سويده

Sednayah 1 1.0 1.0 97.0 @ صيدنايا

Liftaya 1 1.0 1.0 98.0 @ لفتايا

Damascus 1 1.0 1.0 99.0 @ الودار مسود

Mashta Al-Helu 1 1.0 1.0 100.0 @ الحلو مشته

Total 101 100.0 100.0

Q2A What city or town do you currently live in? Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

Tartus 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 @ طرطوس'

Jandairis 1 1.0 1.0 2.0 @ جنديرس]

Al Damaat @ Damat 1 1.0 1.0 3.0

Al Ma'eenah @ Al Ma'unah

1 1.0 1.0 4.0

Al Qaherah @ Al-Qahira / al-Safa

1 1.0 1.0 5.0

Al Sham @ Damascus 1 1.0 1.0 5.9

Al Suwayda @ Al-Suwayda

2 2.0 2.0 7.9

Aleppo @ Aleppo 1 1.0 1.0 8.9

Aleraa @ 'Ira 1 1.0 1.0 9.9

AlLatheqieh @ Latakia 1 1.0 1.0 10.9

Allepo @ Aleppo 1 1.0 1.0 11.9



alsoweda @ As-Suwayda 1 1.0 1.0 12.9

Alswaida @ As-Suwayda 1 1.0 1.0 13.9

Amneh @ Amneh 1 1.0 1.0 14.9

Auqwadie Barada @ Wadi Barada

1 1.0 1.0 15.8

Dair Hannah @ Dair Hannah

1 1.0 1.0 16.8

Damas @ Damascus 1 1.0 1.0 17.8

Damascuc @ Damascus 2 2.0 2.0 19.8

Damascus @ Damascus 3 3.0 3.0 22.8

Damasucus @ Damascus 1 1.0 1.0 23.8

Dara @ Dara'a 2 2.0 2.0 25.7

Dara @ Daraa 1 1.0 1.0 26.7

Demashq @ Damascus 2 2.0 2.0 28.7

Edraa @ Daraa 1 1.0 1.0 29.7

Garamana @ Jaramana 1 1.0 1.0 30.7

Halab @ Aleppo 1 1.0 1.0 31.7

Halb @ Aleppo 1 1.0 1.0 32.7

Haleb @ Aleppo 3 3.0 3.0 35.6

Hama @ Hama 4 4.0 4.0 39.6

Homs @ Homs 2 2.0 2.0 41.6

Latakia @ Latakia 2 2.0 2.0 43.6

Lathqiyeh @ Latakia 1 1.0 1.0 44.6

Lathqyeh @ Latakia 1 1.0 1.0 45.5

Not sure 1 1.0 1.0 46.5

Refused 8 7.9 7.9 54.5

Salamiya @ Salamiyah 1 1.0 1.0 55.4

Tartos @ Tartus 2 2.0 2.0 57.4

Tartous @ Tartus 1 1.0 1.0 58.4

Usal Alward @ Usal Al Ward

1 1.0 1.0 59.4

Abu Faraj 1 1.0 1.0 60.4 @ فرج ابو

Tall Ad Dirrah 1 1.0 1.0 61.4 @ الره اتل

Izara'a 1 1.0 1.0 62.4 @ ازرع

Latakia 2 2.0 2.0 64.4 @ االدقية

Latakia 1 1.0 1.0 65.3 @ االذقيه

Al-Hasakah 1 1.0 1.0 66.3 @ الحزقي



Al-Hasakah 1 1.0 1.0 67.3 @ الحسكة

Al-Hasakah 1 1.0 1.0 68.3 @ الحسكه

Ad Darbasiyah 1 1.0 1.0 69.3 @ الدرباسية

As-Suwayda 1 1.0 1.0 70.3 @ السويداء

Der 1 1.0 1.0 71.3 @ الضير

Damascus 1 1.0 1.0 72.3 @ العباسيين

Busra Al @ الرومانيه القلعهSham

1 1.0 1.0 73.3

Al-Kafat 1 1.0 1.0 74.3 @ الكاففات

Latakia 1 1.0 1.0 75.2 @ الالذقية

Latakia 1 1.0 1.0 76.2 @ الالذقيه

Nubl 1 1.0 1.0 77.2 @ النبول

-Eastern AL @ الشرقية النشوةNashwa

1 1.0 1.0 78.2

Banyas 1 1.0 1.0 79.2 @ بانياس

Aleppo 4 4.0 4.0 83.2 @ حلب

Hama 1 1.0 1.0 84.2 @ حماه

Homs 1 1.0 1.0 85.1 @ حمص

Dara'a 1 1.0 1.0 86.1 @ درعا

Daraa 1 1.0 1.0 87.1 @ درعا

Damascus 5 5.0 5.0 92.1 @ دمشق

Deir Ez Zor 1 1.0 1.0 93.1 الزور دير

Jaramana 1 1.0 1.0 94.1 @ زرمانة

Safita 1 1.0 1.0 95.0 @ ساقطة

As-Suwayda 1 1.0 1.0 96.0 @ سويده

Sednayah 1 1.0 1.0 97.0 @ صيدنايا

Liftaya 1 1.0 1.0 98.0 @ لفتايا

Damascus 1 1.0 1.0 99.0 @ الودار مسود

Mashta Al-Helu 1 1.0 1.0 100.0 @ الحلو مشته

Total 101 100.0 100.0

Q3 In what governorate or muhafazah was [answer to Q2A/Q2B] before the civil war began?

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

Valid Aleppo 16 15.8 15.8 15.8

Damascus 16 15.8 15.8 31.7



Daraa 9 8.9 8.9 40.6

Deir ez-Zor 1 1.0 1.0 41.6

Hama 9 8.9 8.9 50.5

Al-Hasakah 6 5.9 5.9 56.4

Homs 6 5.9 5.9 62.4

Latakia 10 9.9 9.9 72.3

Quneitra 1 1.0 1.0 73.3

Rif Dimashq 10 9.9 9.9 83.2

As-Suwayda 6 5.9 5.9 89.1

Tartus 6 5.9 5.9 95.0

Some other governorate or muhafazah

1 1.0 1.0 96.0

Not sure 1 1.0 1.0 97.0

Refused 3 3.0 3.0 100.0

Total 101 100.0 100.0

Q22 Do you know anyone from [answer to Q2A/Q2B] who moved to Turkey?


Valid

Yes 30 29.7 46.2 46.2

No 31 30.7 47.7 93.8

Not sure 4 4.0 6.2 100.0

Total 65 64.4 100.0

Missing System 36 35.6

Total 101 100.0

Q23 Do you know anyone from [answer to Q2A/Q2B] who moved to Iraq? Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

Yes 11 10.9 16.9 16.9

No 49 48.5 75.4 92.3

Not sure 5 5.0 7.7 100.0

Total 65 64.4 100.0


Total 101 100.0



Q24 Do you know anyone from [answer to Q2A/Q2B] who moved to a European country?


Valid

Yes 44 43.6 67.7 67.7

No 18 17.8 27.7 95.4

Not sure 3 3.0 4.6 100.0

Total 65 64.4 100.0


Total 101 100.0

Q29 Which religious tradition are you part of? Other Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative

Percent

Valid

75 74.3 74.3 74.3

Islam @ Islam 2 2.0 2.0 76.2

Islam @ Muslim 1 1.0 1.0 77.2

Ismaiil @ Ismailis 1 1.0 1.0 78.2

Moslem @ Muslim 1 1.0 1.0 79.2

Moslim @ Muslim 2 2.0 2.0 81.2

Muslim @ Muslim 2 2.0 2.0 83.2

Love for Syria 1 1.0 1.0 84.2 @ سوريا حب

Syrian 1 1.0 1.0 85.1 @ سوري

Syrian 1 1.0 1.0 86.1 @ سوريا مذھب

Muslim 10 9.9 9.9 96.0 @ مسلم

Syrian Muslim 1 1.0 1.0 97.0 @ سوري مسلم

Christian 2 2.0 2.0 99.0 @ مسيحي

Orthodox @ اراتدطس مسيحيChristian

1 1.0 1.0 100.0

Total 101 100.0 100.0



AppendixC:FactorLoadings

Pattern Matrixa Component

1 2

Q16 How much do you blame Russia for the killing and suffering in Syria?

.860

Q14 How much do you blame Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah for the killing and suffering in Syria?

.844

Q12 How much do you blame Bashar al Assad for the killing and suffering in Syria?

.829

Q15 How much do you blame Turkey for the killing and suffering in Syria?

-.565

Q7 Some people say that Muslims living in predominantly Muslim countries would be better off if all these countries joined together in a nation of “United Islam” stretching from Morocco to Indonesia. Do you personally agree or disagree with this idea?

.505

Q5 Over the past 12 months, do you think finding work in [answer to Q2A/Q2B]has become harder, easier, or has there been no change for residents living there since the civil war began?

.376 .342

Q17 How much do you blame the United States of America for the killing and suffering in Syria?

-.759

Q10 Some people say that United States of America’s foreign policies are dictated by Jewish interests. Do you believe that U.S. foreign policies are or are not dictated by Jewish interests?

-.706

Q9 Some people say the United States of America’s ‘War on Terrorism’ is a war against Islam. Do you feel the U.S. is fighting a war on terrorism or a war against Islam?

.660

Q4 Over the past 12 months, do you think living conditions in [answer to Q2A/Q2B] have become harder, easier, or has there been no change since the civil war began for residents living there?

.394

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Oblimin with Kaiser Normalization.a a. Rotation converged in 4 iterations.

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