TitleSydney CBD and South East Light Rail

Operational Traffic Modelling – Did We Get It Right?

Overview

• Overview• Modelling Approach and Model Application• Operational Assessment – Did we get it right so far?• Lessons Learnt

Overview

• Sydney CBD faces challenges – 330,000 jobs are located in Sydney

CBD (14 percent of all Sydney jobs)– 630,000 trips are made into the city

centre on a typical weekday – Almost 25% of trips to and from the

CBD are made by private vehicles due to convenience

Pressure on Transport Network

Overview

• To respond to challenges, Sydney is undergoing major transformation with a number of significant transport infrastructure projects

WestConnex

Sydney CBD and South East Light Rail

Sydney Metro Northwest

Parramatta Light RailWestern Harbour Tunnel

Bus Network Changes

Overview

• Sydney CBD and South East Light Rail (CSELR)– Twelve kilometer route between Circular

Quay and Kingsford and Randwick– Pedestrianised zone on George Street

between Hunter and Bathurst Streets

Overview

• Sydney CBD Bus Plan – more efficient and simplified bus network

From this…. …to this

CSELR Modelling – Why model it ?

• To provide inputs for other assessments

• To assist decision making process and improve strategies

• To forecast what might happen in the future and to avoid this…..

January 2015 – Bus and Traffic Congestion on SHB due to Construction Works in the CBD

Modelling Approach

• Model Architecture and Integration

Aimsun Micro

Modelling Approach

• Study Area

CBD CordonAimsun Model Study Area

CSELR Corridor

Model Application - Forecast Validation

• George Street Construction Closures

• October 2015 - New CBD Bus Plan Introduction

Model Application – Forecast Validation

• Typical Sydney CBD Cordon Traffic Profile

– Over a number of years, the morning peak has had 20-25,000 inbound vehicle trips

Forecast Validation – Did we get it right?• This is what happened on the day

Despite the George Street closures, overall vehicle numbers (inbound and outbound) were comparable to a typical weekday.

Forecast Validation – Did we get it right?• This is what the model showed

Outbound AM PeakInbound AM Peak• Accurate

replication of inbound volumes (within 2%) and patterns

• Outbound volumes lower by 16%

Forecast Validation – Did we get it right?• Congestion hot spots identified by the modelAM Peak PM Peak

• Clarence St/Margaret St/York St in the AM Peak

• Hay St/Pitt St and Hay St/Castlereagh St in the PM

Forecast Validation – Did we get it right?• Congestion hot spots in reality

The worst intersections as reported by the Sydney Morning Herald…………and the public

Operational Assessment – Did we get it right?

• Redirection of traffic to other alternative north-south routes, mainly College St, Elizabeth St and Sussex St

• Reduction in volumes on some east-west corridors, mainly Bridge St, Bathurst St, Liverpool St

• This is what the model showed – AM Peak

Operational Assessment – Did we get it right?

• This is what happened on the day – AM Peak

• Increase in volumes along College St (both directions) as well as Macquarie St

• Reduction in volumes on York St• Increase in volumes on Castlereagh St• Some reduction in number of east-west

trips along Bathurst St and Liverpool St• Reduction in traffic volumes along

Grosvenor St and Bridge St eastbound• Increase in volumes on Elizabeth Street

(northbound)

Lessons Learnt

• The model has become an extremely useful tool to supported different stages of the project but it cannot substitute common sense.

• It has become very complex. • Changeable traffic arrangements and travel

patterns makes the development of an accurate ‘base model’ almost impossible.

Thank You