sxsw 2015 digital trends session by amy webb

Digital Future2015 Emerging Trends

SXSWMarch 15, 2015

Wednesday, March 18, 15

Amy Webb: 3 Things

Digital Media FuturistFounder + CEO of Webbmedia Group, a digital strategy agency.

What I DoResearch and forecast near-future tech and digital media trends.

How I Do ItQuarterly tech-trends on-site, pop-up think tanks, project-based work.

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Where the trends come from...


Six Part Forecasting Methodology1. Observations from the fringe

2. Pattern Identifiers: Contradictions, Oddities, Inflections, Anomalies and Hacks

3. Contextualize: “Consumer” = individual, business, organization, government, social movement

4. Timing: Finding the S-curve

5. Mapping the Trend Strategy

6. Pressure-Testing the trend and strategy


The 5 QuestionsFocus on your audience.

1.Where/ how are people wasting their time?

2.Where/ how are people having difficulty with technology?

3.Where/ how are people looking for information?

4.Where/ how are people stuck?

5.How do people want to be perceived?


Forecast the trend and define a strategy at just the right time...

Mainstream Use

Convergence


5Emerging Digital TrendsDeep Dive


Attention

You must find and harness your consumers’ attention in new ways.

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12,000 people voluntary mobile data

95 min/ day

pick up 50 - 60 min/ day


151 - 169 mobile minutes


< 2 minutes per pick up


Our attentions are directly or ambiently connected to our mobile phones all day long.


• Checking email & social• Read 900th #Meerkat story• Looking at push notifications• Checking the weather/ traffic• Playing a quick game

< 2 minutes


< 2 minutes available:- 3 ..... seconds on homescreen- 5+ ..... push notifications- 4 ..... seconds deciding- 90 ..... seconds email/ texts

Math


You have less than 30 seconds to grab your customer’s attention.


Nope. Actually.....


Your readers make visual decisions in less than 3 seconds.


Utility – Immediately Clear


PlatformsFind and deliver us content/ utility in <3 seconds


How can you make those 3 seconds count?


Attention.


Abbi & Ilana’s 3 seconds


What do Abbi and Ilana want at this moment in time?


Let’s ask their mobile data.


What we know about Abbi and Ilana:• Their schedules• Their locations• Their speeds• What they read• What they listen to• How often they engage with your site• How often they engage with your digital products• What they click on• What their interest areas are• Whether or not they clicks on ads• How they’re retargeted• Who their friends are• How tech-savvy they are


Look into your mobile phone.You’ll see a truer reflection of yourself than in any mirror.


Attention Matrix


TEMPORAL

Create experience for Abbi & Ilana at a particular moment in time, given that there are N# variables in time and activity.


ACTIVITIES

Create experience for Abbi & Ilana’s activities at that moment in time.


BEHAVIORS

Create experience for Abbi & Ilana given their past and predicted behaviors.


IQ/EQ

Meet Abbi & Ilana’s intellectual and emotional needs. (Which might be hard... or easy!)


What is the _____ version of the digital experience for Abbi & Ilana?

For all our possible audience members?

✦ Stuck in a cruise ship cargo room✦ Throwing a kettle ball at a mirror at the gym✦ Drunk in an Uber✦ Not doing anything at work✦ Trying to ignore strange roommate


How will you capture attention this year?


Tracking Attentionnot clicks or downloads

Mainstream Use

Convergence


Put your audience first.


Not your audience’s devices


Trend Into ActionAttention Strategy = How can you create a strategy to harness your customer’s attention on her devices?


(NOT) Watches

They’re a second screen for phones. That’s about it.

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401* Devices*as of March 9, 2015


smartwatches.org


2015 - 2016

Devices intended for biometric reportingand mobile 2nd screens.


2018+

Devices will have more cross-functionality and will be more widely used.


{Implicit facts}Smartphones are addictive. People aren’t checking their watches 60 times a day.


Heading towards a second convergence.

Convergence Convergence


Trend Into Action

Wearables Strategy = Monitor the fringe, watch for new products.


Haptics

Buzz me, maybe?

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Haptics (n) from the Greek ἅπτω

Communication via touch. Can be one-way, two-way or multi.


“Force Touch”


Thrustmaster TX Racing Wheel Ferrari 458 Italia Edition


Pavlok


Foxtell Shirt


Haptics will impact...


Haptics: edging out from the fringe

Convergence

Mainstream Use


Trend Into Action

Haptics Strategy = Monitor the fringe, watch for new implementations and possible partnerships.


Ambient Interfaces

Our devices are doing more for uswith fewer direct actions.

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Autocomplete......for intentions


Google Now has created a Personal Information Layer that’s indispensable.


More than just Push Alerts


If the alert isn’t in the middle of the attention matrix, it’s just a meaningless interruption.


Mumble! app on Android


Haptic connection. Ambient information.


Next, ambient interfaces into....... Retail apps & experiences.Productivity apps.Finance apps.Dating apps.Law enforcement tools.The right kind of news apps.


Ambient interfaces: First Convergence

Mainstream Use

Convergence


Trend Into ActionAmbient Strategy = How can you create an ambient environment to capture more attention?


Speaking of ambient.........


Messaging Platforms

Messaging apps are the new homepage.

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Line App (Japan)


Line App (Japan)

Nostalgia + Institutional Understanding

Gen X = Sticker BooksMillennials = Emoji


1.7 million new usersevery day


126% growth$656m in revenue


Company RevenueGannett $5,161 million

New York Times $1,577 million

GoPro $985 million

Line Messaging App $656 million

Twitter $479 million

Madonna’s MDNA Tour $305 million

Perspective


WeChat (China)


What is chat, exactly?


• Avoid SMS fees• Have private conversations• Asking for information• Coordinating plans• On my way home• Please call me• Social: friends, dating• Peer-to-peer sharing• Gossip• “Did you hear?” breaking news• Are you ok?• Real-time collaboration

Why We Message


Niche Messaging Services


WhatsApp: Free messaging


Luka App: Chat + recommendations


Tinder: Dating (etc)


Venmo: Payments


New chat apps offer in-app purchases.


Ask: What will people pay for?


Trying to help us win.


Trying to help us one-up our friends.


Also feeds our addictive mobile behaviors. Just $1 and you can get to the next level...


You’re not trying to help us win.You’re preventing us from getting information we want.


Chat/ Messaging: Next: feature of other apps

Mainstream Use

Convergence


Chat -- immediate connections in real time -- will become part of wearables, other apps, etc.


Next, convergence with...Brands.News media.Home improvement apps.Fashion bloggers. Personal finance networks.Hobbies: gardening apps.


Trend Into ActionChat Strategy = Leverage your audience and their desire to chat. Build utility into your app or partner.


Thanks.

Thanks.


webbmediagroup.com [email protected] @webbmediagroup267-342-4300


mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

sxsw 2015 digital trends session by amy webb

Technology