sxsw 2011 - the crisis of trust in a social age: issues and opportunities

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Presented by Guy Gould-Davies & Kevin MacLean at the 2011 SXSW Interactive Festival. Read the live blog of the session here: http://ideaengineers.sapient.com/strategy/sxsw-the-crisis-of-trust-in-a-social-age/

TRANSCRIPT

  • of TRUST in a

    03.12.11

    Social Age

    The Crisis

  • It is safe? Watch this clip from the movie Marathon Man (1976)

  • SOCIAL MEDIA CONTINUES ITS METEORIC RISE

    248 MM UNIQUE MONTHLY

    VISITORS TO TOP 8 SNS SITES

    61% INTERNET USERS

    WITH AN SNS PROFILE

    23% ALL INTERNET TIME

    SPENT ON SNS

    41% YAG

    48% YAG

    50% YAG

    Source: Nielsen NetView - June 2009-June 2010

  • CONSUMER DECISION MAKING IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOCIAL

    I LIKE IT

    Do I look good? I really love this dress. I dont think pictures do it

    justice.

    84 % LIKE IT

    I HATE IT

    Photo Credit: Kris Krg

  • TRUST IN THE PEOPLE WE KNOW HAS ERODED

    CREDIBILITY OF INFORMATION SOURCES ABOUT COMPANIES

    TV NEWS

    RADIO NEWS

    NEWSPAPERS

    FRIENDS/PEERS

    0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

    2008 2010

    Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010

  • 60% OF PEOPLE REPORT NEEDING TO HEAR SOMETHING ABOUT A SPECIFIC COMPANY 3-5X TO BELIEVE IT IS TRUE

    AND WE REQUIRE MORE PROOF

    Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010

  • TRUST AND SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS ONLINE

    MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST LESS

    MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST MORE 40%

    18%

    UNSURE ABOUT THE NUMBER OF OPINIONS BUT ITS GETTING HARDER TO TELL

    41%

    Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

  • THREE POSSIBILITIES

    ROCK THE VOTE! TWEET 1, 2 OR 3 TO #quest4trust NOW

    1 NOT A PROBLEM: TRUST IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS IT USED TO BE

    2 MAYBE A PROBLEM

    3 YES, ITS A PROBLEM: TRUST HAS ERODED - QUESTION IS WHY & WHAT TO

    DO

    ITS TOO EARLY TO TELL

  • THE AUDIENCE HAS SPOKEN!

    SOURCE: COMPILATION OF AUDIENCE VOTES VIA LIVE TWEETS DURING THE PRESENTATION

    1 NOT A PROBLEM: TRUST IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS IT USED TO BE

    2 MAYBE A PROBLEM

    3 YES, ITS A PROBLEM: TRUST HAS ERODED - QUESTION IS WHY & WHAT TO

    DO

    ITS TOO EARLY TO TELL

    6%

    38%

    56%

  • WHAT IS TRUST?

    CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE IN

    RELATION TO SOMETHING OF VALUE

  • WHY DOES TRUST EXIST?

    TO COMMUNE.

    TO LIVE.

    TO PROTECT WHATS VALUABLE.

  • RISK SHAPES TRUST

    SELF-ACTUALIZATION: achieving ones full potential including creative activities

    ESTEEM NEEDS: prestige and feeling of accomplishment

    BELONGINGNESS AND LOVE NEEDS: intimate relationships, friends

    SAFETY NEEDS: security, safety

    PHYSIOLOGICAL NEEDS: food, water, warmth, rest

    SELF-FULFILLMENT NEEDS

    PSYCHOLOGICAL NEEDS

    BASIC NEEDS

    Source: A Theory of Human Motivation, 1943 - A. Maslow

  • THE MOB RULES

  • TRUST IS AN AGGREGATE

    COMPANY CONSUMER

    EXPECTATIONS

    PRODUCT PLACE SERVICE PRICE PROMOTION

    CONNECTION BRAND

    PR ADVERTISING FRIENDS SOCIAL MEDIA

    EMOTIONAL RATIONAL

    PSYCHOLOGICAL PHYSICAL

    REPUTATION BELIEFS

    ASSOCIATIONS

    EXPERIENCE

    SHOPPING CONSUMPTION

  • HOW TRUST WORKS

    OWNERSHIP / EXPERIENCE EXPECTATION

    TRUST

    PUT IN $$$

    PHYSICAL PSYCHIC

    GET OUT RATIONAL

    EMOTIONAL

  • IT FRAMES THE VALUE PROPOSITION

    BENEFITS COSTS VALUE = VS.

    PUT IN GET OUT

    TRUST

  • FUTURE PROOF IS A TRUST PLAY

    BENEFITS COSTS VALUE = VS.

    PUT IN GET OUT

    TRUST

  • TRUST IS FEELING GOOD.

    Photo Credits: Heinrich Klaffs

  • AN ECONOMIC GALE OF DARWINIAN PROPORTIONS

    ECONOMIC RISK EVER-PRESENT DESPITE BEST EFFORTS TO MANAGE IT. STANDING ON GUARD.

    ERA OF READINESS

    RISK THOUGHT TO BE MANAGEABLE WITH HIGH-TECH MACRO-ECONOMIC TOOLS. INDULGING RISK

    ERA OF INDULGENCE

    RISK ABRUPTLY RETURNS UNEXPECTEDLY CREATING UNCERTAINTY, REASSESSING EXTERNALITIES

    ERA OF CONSEQUENCES

    WW II ENDS

    MID 1980s 2008

    Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010

  • The new consumer psychology on the rise around the world is one of networks and

    prioritization, of explicitly pricing in consequences and of giving more than lip service to being

    resourceful and and vigilant to downside risks This is the global zeitgeist now aborning.

    WELCOME TO THE ERA OF CONSEQUENCES

    Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010

  • OTHER MACRO FORCES ADD TO THE CONSEQUENCE

    UNDERCURRENT

    ECOLI IN FOOD SUPPLY TOXIC DOG FOOD LED PAINT IN TOYS OBESITY

    CONSUMPTION

    LAID OFF OR WORK SCALED BACK HOMES WORTH LESS THAN DEBT RETIREMENT FUNDS DECIMATED

    ECONOMIC

    SEVERE WEATHER AND DAMAGE BIRD FLU, SWINE FLU GLOBAL WARMING 9/11

    ENVIRONMENT

    MORTGAGE COLLAPSE INVESTMENT MELTDOWN AUTO INDUSTRY BAILOUTS

    INSTITUTIONS

  • EFFECTS ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

    The decision calculus of consumer choice will be different. The process of arriving at decisions will be different, even when the outcomes are the same. Consumers are redefining what value means to them.

    Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010

  • PUT IN

    HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE PROPOSITION

    BENEFITS COSTS VALUE = VS.

    GET OUT

    TRUST

  • HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE PROPOSITION

    INGREDIENTS PROCESSING FOOTPRINT

    HOW ITS MADE

    BENEFITS COSTS VALUE = VS.

    GET OUT

    TRUST

    TAKEN AWAY

    PUT IN

  • SOCIAL MEDIA HAS A CHARACTER ISSUE

  • SKEWED CONTRIBUTIONS

    NEGATIVE POSITIVE

    NEUTRAL

    MO

    TIVA

    TIO

    N /

    VO

    LUM

    E O

    F C

    OM

    ME

    NTS

    SENTIMENT CHARACTER

  • OPAQUE INTEGRITY

    NEGATIVE POSITIVE

    SENTIMENT CHARACTER

    NEUTRAL

    MO

    TIVA

    TIO

    N /

    VO

    LUM

    E O

    F C

    OM

    ME

    NTS

  • TALK IS

    CHEAP

  • REFERRAL MODERATED BY REPUTATIONAL RISK

  • TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC

    AGGREGATE CONSENSUS

    SOURCE FAMILIARITY

    EXPERTISE INDEPENDENCE

    OPINION ORIGIN

    Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

  • AGGREGATE CONSENSUS

    SOURCE FAMILIARITY

    EXPERTISE INDEPENDENCE

    OPINION ORIGIN

    SOMEONE YOU KNOW?

    SOMEONE YOU

    DONT KNOW

    VS

    TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC

    Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

  • AGGREGATE CONSENSUS

    SOURCE FAMILIARITY

    EXPERTISE INDEPENDENCE

    OPINION ORIGIN

    SOMEONE YOU KNOW?

    SOMEONE YOU

    DONT KNOW

    VS

    TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC

    EXPERIENCE?

    WHAT SOMEONE HAS SEEN OR

    HEARD?

    VS

    Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

  • WHICH RECOMMENDATION DO YOU TRUST MOST WHEN CHOOSING A

    HOTEL IN A NEW CITY?

    71 % CLOSEST FRIENDS OR FAMILY BASED ON WHAT THEYVE HEARD

    29 % A HIGH SCHOOL FRIEND ON FACEBOOK YOU HAVENT SEEN IN A WHILE, WHOS STAYED THERE

    Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

  • SALIENCE IS SHAPED BY A CONTEXT THATS UNCLEAR

    FAMILIARITY

    UN

    DE

    RS

    TAN

    DIN

    G EXPERT/

    AUTHORITY

    PEOPLE WHO UNDERSTAND

    ME

    PEOPLE I LIKE

    WHAT LOTS OF PEOPLE

    LIKE

    PEOPLE LIKE ME

    41 % ITS GETTING HARDER TO TELL WHICH OPINIONS ARE RELIABLE AND WHICH ONES ARENT.

    Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

  • BRAND BEHAVIOR IN THE AGE OF PRISMATIC DISTORTION

  • OLD PARADIGM

  • NEW PARADIGM

  • BRAND RESIDUE

  • CUMULATIVE EFFECT?

    TRUST OR MISTRUST

    WHY NOT AFFINITY / LACK

    THEREOF?

    RESONANCE / DEAFNESS?

    LOVE / HATE / INDIFFERENCE?

    TRUST IS THE PRIME

  • WHAT TO DO?

  • GEAR UP BRAND COWBOYS (AND EMBRACE THE UNCERTAINTY)

  • BEHAVIOR VS WORDS DISINTERMEDIATION VS

    INTERMEDIATION USERS VS SPECULATORS

    OVER TIME VS POINT

    SPEND LESS ON SUPERBOWL ADS

    MORE ON SUPERBAD SUPPORT AND

  • BEHAVIOR WORDS VS

  • DISINTERMEDIATION

    INTERMEDIATION AND

    ( ARE THE CROWDS REALLY ALL THAT WISE? )

  • TAKE ONE-TO-ONE TO THE NEXT LEVEL (DIRECT RESPONSE TO DIRECT FEEDBACK)

  • WHERES THE TWITTER ENTERPRISE DASHBOARD?

  • USERS SPECULATORS VS

  • LIFETIME CUSTOMER

    CONVERSATIONS INCREASE

    LIFETIME CUSTOMER VALUE

    OVER TIME POINT IN TIME VS

  • ONLINE REVIEWS AND BRAND FEEDBACK FIXED IN TIME

    YOU RECENTLY PURCHASED / USED /

    VISITED

    FEEDBACK HAS TO BE DIRECTLY SOLICITED AND INCENTED OVER LIFETIME OF

    RELATIONSHIP

    HOW DO YOU FEEL NOW?

    OWNERSHIP / EXPERIENCE BASED SATISFACTION

  • People are finding social media opinion less reliable Trust depends on a interrelationship of contextual factors which determine contents value Marketers have an opportunity to forge a true one-to-one connection to build lasting value and earn trust

  • CHEERS! #quest4trust #kmacwithcheese