*switch energy and climate in 2030 - a useful vision.

*switch*switch energy and climate in 2030 - a useful vision.energy and climate in 2030 - a useful vision.

Global warming is real.

While we can’t know exactly how it will ultimately impact our lives, one thing is certain:

Global warming is real. Global warming is real.

While we can’t know exactly how it will ultimately impact our lives, one thing is certain: While we can’t know exactly how it will ultimately impact our lives, one thing is certain:

change is coming...

Now it’s IDEO’s chance to get real, too!

change is change is coming...coming...

Now it’s IDEO’s chance to get real, too!Now it’s IDEO’s chance to get real, too!

World leaders will meet at the Copenhagen Conference

to sign the next big climate treaty post-Kyoto.

We would like to join in the conversation and make IDEO’s voice heard.

World leaders will meet at the World leaders will meet at the Copenhagen Conference Copenhagen Conference

to sign the next to sign the next big climate treatybig climate treaty post-Kyoto. post-Kyoto. big climate treatybig climate treaty post-Kyoto. big climate treatybig climate treaty

We would like to join in the conversation and make IDEO’s voice heard.We would like to join in the conversation and make IDEO’s voice heard.

But we can’t do it without you.

All you need to get involved is a passion for big topics,

a little imagination and a few hours of time.

But we can’t do it But we can’t do it without you. without you.

All you need to get involved is a All you need to get involved is a passionpassion for big topics, for big topics,

a little a little imaginationimagination and a few hours of and a few hours of time.time.

Let’s back up:

The 1997 Kyoto protocol set goals that were radical for its time and seem

tame and insufficient today (mostly -5% from 1990-2012).

Let’s back up: Let’s back up:

The 1997 The 1997 Kyoto protocolKyoto protocol set goals that were set goals that were radicalradical for its time and seem for its time and seem

tame and tame and insufficientinsufficient today (mostly -5% from 1990-2012). today (mostly -5% from 1990-2012).

181 countries and the EU signed up. Some countries made the goals set therein,

some failed, others refused to even ratify it.

(If you are curious, look up who represented the US at the Kyoto conference.)

181181 countries and the EU signed up. Some countries countries and the EU signed up. Some countries mademade the goals set therein, the goals set therein,

some some failedfailed, others, others refused refused to even ratify it. to even ratify it.

(If you are curious, look up who represented the US at the Kyoto conference.)(If you are curious, look up who represented the US at the Kyoto conference.)

Enter Copenhagen.

In December 2009, truly radical goals are supposed to be agreed on:

Enter CopenhagenEnter Copenhagen. .

In December 2009, In December 2009, truly radical goalstruly radical goals are supposed to be agreed on: are supposed to be agreed on:

80% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050.

That sounds scary and the threat of fear-induced inaction looms large.

80% reduction80% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050. of CO2 emissions by 2050.

That sounds scary and the threat of That sounds scary and the threat of fear-inducedfear-induced inaction looms large. inaction looms large.

There’s no use in trying to be more efficient. There is no way nations will agree on a common way to stop climate change. If nothing else, the economic divide between countries will make it impossible to find solutions accepted as fair by everyone. There is no way people will change their behaviors sufficiently to make any noticeable dent in the rise of temperatures. Too much would need to change - and people are afraid of change, because they are afraid of losing what they have. The best we can do is to focus on adapting to what is happening around us. Humanity is smart enough to deal with whatever environment or climate we’ll find ourselves in.

the pessimists say...

There’s no use in trying There’s no use in trying to be more efficient. There is no way nations will agree on to be more efficient. There is no way nations will agree on a common way to stop climate change. If nothing else, the a common way to stop climate change. If nothing else, the economic divide between countries will make it impossible economic divide between countries will make it impossible to find solutions accepted as fair by everyone. There is no to find solutions accepted as fair by everyone. There is no way people will change their behaviors sufficiently to make way people will change their behaviors sufficiently to make any noticeable dent in the rise of temperatures. Too much any noticeable dent in the rise of temperatures. Too much would need to change - and people are afraid of change, would need to change - and people are afraid of change, because they are afraid of losing what they have. The best because they are afraid of losing what they have. The best we can do is to focus on adapting to what is happening we can do is to focus on adapting to what is happening around us. Humanity is smart enough to deal with around us. Humanity is smart enough to deal with whatever environment or climate we’ll find ourselves in. whatever environment or climate we’ll find ourselves in.

the pessimists say...the pessimists say...

We will be saved by technology and a gradual shift in behavior. The pressure is on and discussions have advanced far enough to reach critical momentum. You can see the change happen as we speak - thousands of companies are developing products that use less energy, monitor energy usage or produce energy in more sustainable ways. Soon, we will tap alternative energies on a large scale and cut down on consumption in a way that will allow us to keep up our quality of life - and even improve it. Green technologies are the greatest business opportunity. International agreements will make sure that all nations are pulling in one direction when it comes to preventing further climate change and - if possible - reversing it.

the optimists say...

We will be saved byWe will be saved bytechnology and a gradual shift in behavior. The pressure technology and a gradual shift in behavior. The pressure is on and discussions have advanced far enough to reach is on and discussions have advanced far enough to reach critical momentum. You can see the change happen critical momentum. You can see the change happen as we speak - thousands of companies are developing as we speak - thousands of companies are developing products that use less energy, monitor energy usage or products that use less energy, monitor energy usage or produce energy in more sustainable ways. Soon, we will produce energy in more sustainable ways. Soon, we will tap alternative energies on a large scale and cut down on tap alternative energies on a large scale and cut down on consumption in a way that will allow us to keep up our consumption in a way that will allow us to keep up our quality of life - and even improve it. Green technologies quality of life - and even improve it. Green technologies are the greatest business opportunity. International are the greatest business opportunity. International agreements will make sure that all nations are pulling in agreements will make sure that all nations are pulling in one direction when it comes to preventing further climate one direction when it comes to preventing further climate change and - if possible - reversing it. change and - if possible - reversing it.

the optimists say...the optimists say...

We are not out to

prove who is wrong and who is right. However, being

IDEO, we know that it is easier for people to make decisions and get

used to the idea of change if they have a tangible

vision of where it all might lead.

so what’s IDEO’s role in this?

WeWeare not out to are not out to

prove who is wrong and prove who is wrong and who is right. However, being who is right. However, being

IDEO, we know that it is easier IDEO, we know that it is easier for people to make decisions and get for people to make decisions and get

used to the idea used to the idea of change if they of change if they have a tangible have a tangible

vision of where it vision of where it all might lead.all might lead.

so what’s IDEO’s role in this?so what’s IDEO’s role in this?

Leading up to Copenhagen 2009, we would like to

visualize and widely publish two scenarios.

They will be tangible visions of life in 2030.

Leading up to Copenhagen 2009, we would like to Leading up to Copenhagen 2009, we would like to

visualizevisualize and widely and widely publishpublish two scenarios. two scenarios.

They will be tangible They will be tangible visions of life in 2030.visions of life in 2030.

They assume:

a) We manage to reduce our emissions according to the goals; or,

b) We don’t. Not by a long shot.

They assume:They assume:

a) We managea) We manage to reduce our emissions according to the goals; or, to reduce our emissions according to the goals; or,

b) We don’t.b) We don’t. Not by a long shot. Not by a long shot.

We would like to help people imagine the future. Or rather, two possible futures, spanning the spectrum between the two views described above.

Our goal is to

get beyond the doom and gloom scenarios.

Neither of our two visions is intended to be more persuasive or scarier than the other. They will be descriptions of how the goal posts will be shifting and what kind of challenges we as a global society will be tackling between now and 2030.

We would like to help people imagine the future. Or rather, two possible futures, spanning the spectrum We would like to help people imagine the future. Or rather, two possible futures, spanning the spectrum between the two views described above. between the two views described above.

Our goal is to Our goal is to

get beyond the doom and gloom scenariosget beyond the doom and gloom scenariosOur goal is to Our goal is to

get beyond the doom and gloom scenariosOur goal is to Our goal is to

. .

Neither of our two visions is intended to be more persuasive or scarier than the other. They will be Neither of our two visions is intended to be more persuasive or scarier than the other. They will be descriptions of how the goal posts will be shifting and what kind of challenges we as a global society will be descriptions of how the goal posts will be shifting and what kind of challenges we as a global society will be tackling between now and 2030.tackling between now and 2030.

2 scenarios, possible futures

Demand for energy does not change significantly, awareness patchy

Sources change, countries coordinate efforts

Sources for energy largely unchanged, international collaboration patchy

Demand & awareness changes drastically

We don’t make it and manage implications

We make it by managing

change

1 2

No-one is in a position to predict exactly how the journey will go on. What will be the major parameters deciding our level of success? As far as we can see, two things will need to happen:

1. Demand of energy will need to change - at least in industrialized countries. Awareness will need to change first, then behavior will need to follow, be that through insight or regulation.

2. Sources that we draw our energy from will need to change. Massively. We are not talking your occasional windmill - we are talking major shift in mainstream energy production.

We’ll base our 2 scenarios on these parameters like this.*

22 scenarios, scenarios, possible futurespossible futuresscenarios, scenarios, possible futuresscenarios, scenarios,

Demand for energy does Demand for energy does not change significantly, not change significantly, awareness patchyawareness patchy

Sources change, Sources change, countries coordinate effortscountries coordinate efforts

Sources for energy largely Sources for energy largely unchanged, international unchanged, international collaboration patchycollaboration patchy

Demand & awareness Demand & awareness changes drastically changes drastically

We don’t make We don’t make it and manage it and manage implicationsimplications

We make it We make it by managing by managing

changechange

11 22

No-one is in a position to predict exactly how the journey No-one is in a position to predict exactly how the journey will go on. What will be the major parameters deciding will go on. What will be the major parameters deciding our level of success? our level of success? As far as we can see, two things will need to happen: As far as we can see, two things will need to happen:

1. Demand1. Demand of energy will need to change of energy will need to change - at least in industrialized countries. Awareness will need - at least in industrialized countries. Awareness will need to change first, then behavior will need to follow, be that to change first, then behavior will need to follow, be that through insight or regulation. through insight or regulation.

2. Sources2. Sources that we draw our energy that we draw our energy from will need to change. Massively. We are not talking from will need to change. Massively. We are not talking your occasional windmill - we are talking major shift in your occasional windmill - we are talking major shift in mainstream energy production. mainstream energy production.

We’ll base our 2 scenarios on these parameters like this.*We’ll base our 2 scenarios on these parameters like this.*

So here is the idea

Each IDEO location will put together a team.

Once you have a team, pick your own challenge by selecting your combination of the following parameters;

A) Region

C) Persona

B) Facet of life

D) Expert

your challenge...

So here is the ideaSo here is the idea

Each IDEO location will put together a team. Each IDEO location will put together a team.

Once you have a team, pick your own challenge by selecting your combination of the following parameters;Once you have a team, pick your own challenge by selecting your combination of the following parameters;

A) RegionA) Region

C) Persona C) Persona

your challenge...your challenge...

B) Facet of life B) Facet of life

D) ExpertD) Expert

CO2 reduction is a world wide challenge. Pick a region for which you’d like to create a scenario. Think about an unique perspective your team could bring to the mix.

North AmericaSouth America Western EuropeAsiaIndiaAfrica

A) Pick a region

CO2 reduction is a world wide challenge. Pick a region CO2 reduction is a world wide challenge. Pick a region for which you’d like to create a scenario. Think about for which you’d like to create a scenario. Think about an unique perspective your team could bring to the mix. an unique perspective your team could bring to the mix.

North AmericaNorth AmericaSouth America South America Western EuropeWestern EuropeAsiaAsiaIndiaIndiaAfricaAfrica

A) Pick a regionA) Pick a region

Pick one or two (but no more) facets of life that you would like to investigate. In order to get a 360 view of how life will have changed in both cases, we’d like to get a good spread of facets, so be bold in choosing them.

B) Chose a facet of life

Food

Work

Shopping

Vacation

Leisure

Mobility

Education

Urban Living

Pick one or two (but no more) facets of life that you Pick one or two (but no more) facets of life that you would like to investigate. In order to get a 360 view of would like to investigate. In order to get a 360 view of how life will have changed in both cases, we’d like to how life will have changed in both cases, we’d like to get a good spread of facets, so be bold in choosing get a good spread of facets, so be bold in choosing them. them.

B) Chose a facet of lifeB) Chose a facet of life

FoodFood

Work Work

ShoppingShopping

VacationVacation

LeisureLeisure

MobilityMobility

EducationEducation

Urban LivingUrban Living

Pick a persona or model family whose life in 2030 you would like to design. Pick one that seems rich to explore given your region and your chosen facet of life.

A persona can represent an individual or a group of friends, family, etc. Please make sure that some level of adult behavior is represented, meaning your persona should be old enough to drive, vote, or make sensible choices. They’d likely also have some sort of occupation that allows them to pay rent/mortgage, shop, etc.

We are looking to focus on urban environments, so it would be great if you can pick your persona’s context accordingly.

C) Create a persona

Pick a persona or model family whose life in 2030 Pick a persona or model family whose life in 2030 you would like to design. Pick one that seems rich to you would like to design. Pick one that seems rich to explore given your region and your chosen facet of life. explore given your region and your chosen facet of life.

A persona can represent an individual or a group A persona can represent an individual or a group of friends, family, etc. Please make sure that some of friends, family, etc. Please make sure that some level of adult behavior is represented, meaning your level of adult behavior is represented, meaning your persona should be old enough to drive, vote, or make persona should be old enough to drive, vote, or make sensible choices. They’d likely also have some sort of sensible choices. They’d likely also have some sort of occupation that allows them to pay rent/mortgage, occupation that allows them to pay rent/mortgage, shop, etc. shop, etc.

We are looking to focus on urban environments, so it We are looking to focus on urban environments, so it would be great if you can pick your persona’s context would be great if you can pick your persona’s context accordingly.accordingly.

C) Create a personaC) Create a persona

We want to avoid trying to re-invent the wheel. We want to stand on the shoulders of giants.

Please find a climate change expert specializing in the facet of life or region you have chosen. Let us know if you’d like help finding and contacting one, as we have a list of experts ready and would be happy to ping them for you.

Working with experts will be inspiring and will ensure that what we do is informed by the best of the best.

D) Contact an Expert

We want to avoid trying to re-invent the wheel. We want to avoid trying to re-invent the wheel. We want to stand on the shoulders of giants. We want to stand on the shoulders of giants.

Please find a climate change expert specializing in the Please find a climate change expert specializing in the facet of life or region you have chosen. Let us know if facet of life or region you have chosen. Let us know if you’d like help finding and contacting one, as we have you’d like help finding and contacting one, as we have a list of experts ready and would be happy to ping a list of experts ready and would be happy to ping them for you. them for you.

Working with experts will be inspiring and will ensure Working with experts will be inspiring and will ensure that what we do is informed by the best of the best. that what we do is informed by the best of the best.

D) Contact an ExpertD) Contact an Expert

Each team will create two scenarios and visualize them in the shape of two 2-minute videos. It’s up to you how to use those two minutes - whatever communicates your content best.

Keep in mind that we are looking to create useful visions.

No apocalypses, please.

the result

Each team will create two scenarios and visualize them Each team will create two scenarios and visualize them in the shape of in the shape of two 2-minutetwo 2-minute videos. videos. It’s up to you how to use those two minutes - whatever It’s up to you how to use those two minutes - whatever communicates your content best. communicates your content best.

Keep in mind that we are looking to create useful visions.Keep in mind that we are looking to create useful visions.

No apocalypses, please.No apocalypses, please.

the resultthe result

They should be distinctively different from each other, but neither one of them will have to be any scarier or rosier than the other.

There will be sacrifice and opportunity in both cases

and it will be great to see this transpire in the result.

the result

a

b

They should be distinctively different from each other, but neither They should be distinctively different from each other, but neither one of them will have to be any scarier or rosier than the other. one of them will have to be any scarier or rosier than the other.

There will be sacrifice and There will be sacrifice and opportunity in both casesopportunity in both casesand it will be great to see this transpire in the result.and it will be great to see this transpire in the result.

the resultthe result

aa

bb

1. Plan: Let us know which combination you have chosen and which expert you would like to work with first! We will need to ensure that we are working on a good spread of perspectives, so check with the core team before proceeding further. We might need to do some tweaking first.

2. Inspire: Get in touch with your expert and let them brief you on their topic of expertise (important!). Find any documentaries, articles, web sites speaking about your facet and region. Ask your colleagues who are from that corner of the world. Think 2030 - it’s a long way out!

3. Strategize: What does it all mean for a “we make it 2030” and a “we don’t make it 2030”? What are the major changes to today?

4. Express: Think about what regulations, ideas, behaviors, tensions, opportunities these changes will have led to. How will it affect your persons lives in these two scenarios?How will everyday life be affected by measures and behaviors to avoid climate change? Or how will it have been affected or not by the climate change. 5. Visualize:For each of the two scenarios, please create a visual story (sketch, photo scenario, video clip - you choose) introducing your persona/family and clearly describe how their lives are different from today and different in both cases.

Please send your entry back to us by ..... ..... 2009Don’t forget to include all names of your team members in your deliverable!

over to youhere’s a suggestion on how to proceed

1. Plan: 1. Plan: Let us know which combination you have chosen and Let us know which combination you have chosen and which expert you would like to work with first! We will which expert you would like to work with first! We will need to ensure that we are working on a good spread need to ensure that we are working on a good spread of perspectives, so check with the core team before of perspectives, so check with the core team before proceeding further. We might need to do some tweaking proceeding further. We might need to do some tweaking first.first.

2. Inspire: 2. Inspire: Get in touch with your expert and let them brief you on their Get in touch with your expert and let them brief you on their topic of expertise (important!). Find any documentaries, topic of expertise (important!). Find any documentaries, articles, web sites speaking about your facet and region. articles, web sites speaking about your facet and region. Ask your colleagues who are from that corner of the world. Ask your colleagues who are from that corner of the world. Think 2030 - it’s a long way out! Think 2030 - it’s a long way out!

3. Strategize: 3. Strategize: What does it all mean for a “we make it 2030” and a “we What does it all mean for a “we make it 2030” and a “we don’t make it 2030”? What are the major changes to today? don’t make it 2030”? What are the major changes to today?

4. Express:4. Express:Think about what regulations, ideas, behaviors, tensions, Think about what regulations, ideas, behaviors, tensions, opportunities these changes will have led to. How will it opportunities these changes will have led to. How will it affect your persons lives in these two scenarios?affect your persons lives in these two scenarios?How will everyday life be affected by measures and How will everyday life be affected by measures and behaviors to avoid climate change? Or how will it have been behaviors to avoid climate change? Or how will it have been affected or not by the climate change.affected or not by the climate change.

5. Visualize:5. Visualize:For each of the two scenarios, please create a visual story For each of the two scenarios, please create a visual story (sketch, photo scenario, video clip - you choose) introducing (sketch, photo scenario, video clip - you choose) introducing your persona/family and clearly describe how their lives are your persona/family and clearly describe how their lives are different from today and different in both cases.different from today and different in both cases.

Please send your entry back to us by ..... ..... 2009Please send your entry back to us by ..... ..... 2009Don’t forget to include all names of your team members in Don’t forget to include all names of your team members in your deliverable!your deliverable!

over to youover to youhere’s a suggestion on how to proceedhere’s a suggestion on how to proceed

time linea busy few weeks - coordinated across all offices

Plan Inspire Strategize Express Visualize

01.May 01.June 15.June 01.July 15.July

Video Conference with Core Team

Check Combination and Expert with Core Team

Kick-OffExpert Brief

Expert Check-In

Expert Check-In

Core Team Check-In

Share 2 minute Videos

time linetime linea busy few weeks - coordinated across all officesa busy few weeks - coordinated across all offices

Plan Inspire Strategize Express VisualizePlan Inspire Strategize Express VisualizePlan Inspire Strategize Express VisualizePlan Inspire Strategize Express Visualize

01.May 01.June 15.June 01.July 15.July 01.May 01.June 15.June 01.July 15.July

Video Video Conference Conference with Core Teamwith Core Team

Check Combination Check Combination and Expert with and Expert with Core TeamCore Team

Kick-OffKick-OffExpert Expert BriefBrief

Expert Expert Check-InCheck-In

Expert Expert Check-InCheck-In

Core Core Team Team Check-InCheck-In

Share Share 2 minute 2 minute VideosVideos

After we have your stories back, we will synthesize the results if and as appropriate, collate them and package them in a suitable format.

Then we’ll go online with them - likely in a number of ways. We will find various channels to publish them in the run up to Copenhagen. Magazines and web sites will be dying for some tangibility in the discussions.

And we will be there to provide it.

then what?

After we have your stories back, we will synthesize the After we have your stories back, we will synthesize the results if and as appropriate, collate them and package results if and as appropriate, collate them and package them in a suitable format. them in a suitable format.

Then we’ll go online with them - likely in a number of ways. Then we’ll go online with them - likely in a number of ways. We will find various channels to publish them in the run up We will find various channels to publish them in the run up to Copenhagen. Magazines and web sites will be dying for to Copenhagen. Magazines and web sites will be dying for some tangibility in the discussions. some tangibility in the discussions.

And we will be there to provide it. And we will be there to provide it.

then what?then what?

Thank you

very much! We can’t wait to see your visions of our future.

Thank you Thank you

very much! very much! We can’t wait to see your visions of our future.We can’t wait to see your visions of our future.

appendix some information you might find usefulappendixappendix some information you might find useful some information you might find useful

some science-y backgroundhistory and projections of CO2 emissions

We’ll need to reduce our emission of greenhouse gases. No one measure will be enough. And no one gas will be enough. So far the discussions focus on CO2, but we are only starting to understand the role of methane, emitted by animal’s digestive systems and thawing permafrost. But let’s focus on what we know: As far as we know today, we will need to get below 3 Gt of CO2 emissions per year, roughly the worldwide emissions in 1964. That’s the equivalent of 1t per person per year - twice as much of what a Sri Lankan emits these days, or 1/22 of what the average American produces (source NOE21).

To get there we will need to employ a wide range of measures, which together will add up to make the difference. This principle is know as the wedge model for climate stabilization.

some science-y backgroundsome science-y backgroundhistory and projections of CO2 emissionshistory and projections of CO2 emissions

We’ll need to reduce our emission of greenhouse We’ll need to reduce our emission of greenhouse gases. No one measure will be enough. And no one gases. No one measure will be enough. And no one gas will be enough. So far the discussions focus on gas will be enough. So far the discussions focus on CO2, but we are only starting to understand the role of CO2, but we are only starting to understand the role of methane, emitted by animal’s digestive systems and methane, emitted by animal’s digestive systems and thawing permafrost.thawing permafrost.

But let’s focus on what we know: As far as we But let’s focus on what we know: As far as we know today, we will need to get below 3 Gt of CO2 know today, we will need to get below 3 Gt of CO2 emissions per year, roughly the worldwide emissions emissions per year, roughly the worldwide emissions in 1964. That’s the equivalent of 1t per person per in 1964. That’s the equivalent of 1t per person per year - twice as much of what a Sri Lankan emits these year - twice as much of what a Sri Lankan emits these days, or 1/22 of what the average American produces days, or 1/22 of what the average American produces (source NOE21).(source NOE21).

To get there we will need to employ a wide range of To get there we will need to employ a wide range of measures, which together will add up to make the measures, which together will add up to make the difference. This principle is know as the wedge model difference. This principle is know as the wedge model for climate stabilization.for climate stabilization.

what’s already starting to happen

Emerging Technologies Photovoltaics

Photothermal water heating

Energy saving light sources

House Insulation

Triple Glazed windows

Heat pumps

Wood burning furnaces

...

Regulatory trendsBuilding codes limit energy losses

Classification by emission level

Taxation by emission levels

carbon trading

Carbon based car taxes

...

Behavioral trendsHybrids are now ‘cool’

Need for feedback on energy

consumption

Rejection of low mpg vehicles

Carbon offset schemes

Rising awareness of heat losses

...

what’s already starting to happenwhat’s already starting to happen

Emerging Technologies Emerging Technologies PhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics

Photothermal water heatingPhotothermal water heating

Energy saving light sourcesEnergy saving light sources

House InsulationHouse Insulation

Triple Glazed windowsTriple Glazed windows

Heat pumpsHeat pumps

Wood burning furnacesWood burning furnaces

......

Regulatory trendsRegulatory trendsBuilding codes limit energy lossesBuilding codes limit energy losses

Classification by emission levelClassification by emission level

Taxation by emission levelsTaxation by emission levels

carbon tradingcarbon trading

Carbon based car taxesCarbon based car taxes

......

Behavioral trendsBehavioral trendsHybrids are now ‘cool’ Hybrids are now ‘cool’

Need for feedback on energy Need for feedback on energy

consumptionconsumption

Rejection of low mpg vehiclesRejection of low mpg vehicles

Carbon offset schemesCarbon offset schemes

Rising awareness of heat lossesRising awareness of heat losses

......

change is inevitableinspirational backdrop to our scenarios

True if “We Make It” Life has become more localEnergy sources are diverseEnergy is being produced locallyFood is sourced very locallyNo CO2 emitted in transporting goodsRemote collaboration tools prevailLong distance travel is a luxuryWe will depend on the sun and windNuclear power is backKids educate their parentsWasting energy is stigmatizedHomes don’t require heatingPeople are aware of their footprintEnergy is intuitively understood

True in BothLife is more connected than everInformation is omnipresentData becomes increasingly tangiblePeople will fight over resourcesClimate discussions intensifyMore and more climate killers are

being identified and researchedCost of oil explodes We are running out of oil and gasWorld population grows ever

quickerThe number of cars in the world will

continue to grow.

True if “We Don’t”Energy & food sourced like todayAwareness has changedBehavior has notOil is scarce & without alternativeLong distance travel subsidizedWar of opinions raging on energyTemperatures rise in most places Unusual weather patternsMore natural disastersSea levels will riseParts of world turn into desertMillions of climate refugeesHabitable area on earth shrinksBiodiversity drops sharply

1 2

There is no way to get around change. Life is changing all the time, for better or for worse. Change due to global rises in temperature is well underway in 2008 and will be much more prominent in 2030. This is true for the scenario “we make it” as well as for the scenario “we don’t make it”. It’s just a different kind of change.

Scenario Scenario

change is inevitablechange is inevitableinspirational backdrop to our scenariosinspirational backdrop to our scenarios

True if “We Make It” True if “We Make It” Life has become more localLife has become more localEnergy sources are diverseEnergy sources are diverseEnergy is being produced locallyEnergy is being produced locallyFood is sourced very locallyFood is sourced very locallyNo CO2 emitted in transporting goodsNo CO2 emitted in transporting goodsRemote collaboration tools prevailRemote collaboration tools prevailLong distance travel is a luxuryLong distance travel is a luxuryWe will depend on the sun and windWe will depend on the sun and windNuclear power is backNuclear power is backKids educate their parentsKids educate their parentsWasting energy is stigmatizedWasting energy is stigmatizedHomes don’t require heatingHomes don’t require heatingPeople are aware of their footprintPeople are aware of their footprintEnergy is intuitively understoodEnergy is intuitively understood

True in BothTrue in BothLife is more connected than everLife is more connected than everInformation is omnipresentInformation is omnipresentData becomes increasingly tangibleData becomes increasingly tangiblePeople will fight over resourcesPeople will fight over resourcesClimate discussions intensifyClimate discussions intensifyMore and more climate killers are More and more climate killers are

being identified and researchedbeing identified and researchedCost of oil explodes Cost of oil explodes We are running out of oil and gasWe are running out of oil and gasWorld population grows ever World population grows ever

quickerquickerThe number of cars in the world will The number of cars in the world will

continue to grow.continue to grow.

True if “We Don’t”True if “We Don’t”Energy & food sourced like todayEnergy & food sourced like todayAwareness has changedAwareness has changedBehavior has notBehavior has notOil is scarce & without alternativeOil is scarce & without alternativeLong distance travel subsidizedLong distance travel subsidizedWar of opinions raging on energyWar of opinions raging on energyTemperatures rise in most places Temperatures rise in most places Unusual weather patternsUnusual weather patternsMore natural disastersMore natural disastersSea levels will riseSea levels will riseParts of world turn into desertParts of world turn into desertMillions of climate refugeesMillions of climate refugeesHabitable area on earth shrinksHabitable area on earth shrinksBiodiversity drops sharplyBiodiversity drops sharply

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There is no way to get around change. Life is changing all the time, for There is no way to get around change. Life is changing all the time, for better or for worse. Change due to global rises in temperature is well better or for worse. Change due to global rises in temperature is well underway in 2008 and will be much more prominent in 2030. This is true underway in 2008 and will be much more prominent in 2030. This is true for the scenario “we make it” as well as for the scenario “we don’t make for the scenario “we make it” as well as for the scenario “we don’t make it”. It’s just a different kind of change. it”. It’s just a different kind of change.

Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario

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