swimdex proposal.doc

8/12/2019 Swimdex Proposal.doc

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May 5, 2007 PoolPal, Inc.

T'e Swi*de+ Your Newest Money Saving Tool

eslie-s Pool*art Inc. is not only a ra idly growing co* any /ut also t'e leading

national s ecialty retailer o swi**ing ool su lies and related roducts. 1it' 5 )

stores nation3wide in t'irty3 ive states, t'is co* any guarantees 'ig' 4uality roducts,

co* etitive every day low rices, and e+cellent custo*er service. nderstanda/ly,

eslie-s sales as well as ro it 'ave increased signi icantly over t'e last several iscal

years. Below, one can ind t'e eslie-s sales and ro it trends over t'e last ive iscal

years.

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6ur co* any, PoolPal, Inc. 'as invented a roduct t'at will not only cause

eslie-s sales to increase even urt'er /ut also will cause ro its to soar. It is called t'e

Swi*de+, a *eteorology3/ased inde+. %o* le+ in structure, /ut si* le and easy to use,

t'is inde+ allows eslie-s to view t'e li(eli'ood o uture ool use t'roug'out t'e entire

country.

By utili ing t'is roduct, eslie-s will decrease costs and increase ro it. T'is

inde+ indicates areas w'ere ool su lies are less li(ely sell. T'is decreases costs in

s'i ing, *anu acturing, and distri/ution. Si*ilarly, t'e inde+ s'ows regions w'ere

ools su lies will *ore li(ely sell. By increasing t'e inventory in t'ese areas, *ore

ool su ly roducts can /e sold at ull rice, rat'er t'an sale rice. 1it' a *ore

accurate roduct distri/ution as a result o t'e Swi*de+, eslie-s will gain an advantage

over t'e co* etition.

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eslie-s can use t'is inde+ in a nu*/er o ways. T'ey can urc'ase a seasonal

outloo( to s'ow w'at conditions are e+ ected t'roug'out t'e entire su**er. T'is gives

eslie-s a national overview o swi**ing ool use or t'e season. T'ere ore, eslie-s

can decide w'et'er to increase or decrease roduction in certain regions, w'ic' leads to

lower costs.

9aily u dates stand out as anot'er ossi/ility. 9aily u dates are availa/le as

orecasts are u dated /ased on tro ical syste*s, stor* atterns, and 'eat waves. 1it'

t'is tool, eslie-s can deter*ine w'ere to slow down roduction, w'ere to increase

roduction, and w'ere to advertise or t'e ne+t our days. 1'en deciding w'at data touse to create a roduct t'at will yield all o t'e /ene its a/ove, PoolPal, Inc *ade sure to

incor orate t'e *ost accurate data.

T'e *eteorological data used in our inde+ is /ased on co* uter *odel out ut

orecasts. T'ese orecasts 'ave i* roved wit' ti*e. :or e+a* le, today-s seven day

orecasts are a/out as accurate as ive day orecasts ro* );


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= new *odel, t'e 1eat'er &esearc' and :orecasting *odel >1&:?, 'as an

i* roved accuracy over revious *odels. T'is *odel 'as a 'ig' resolution, *eaning

*ore data oints are used w'en calculating t'e orecasts. T'e 1&: out er or*ed its

redecessor in 70@ o t'e situations studied /y t'e =ir :orce 1eat'er =gency. =lso,

errors in nig't ti*e te* erature and 'u*idity was reduced /y over 50@ in t'e eastern

nited States. :inally, t'e *odel is a/le to incor orate satellite and radar data *ore

easily t'an revious *odels. =s our (nowledge o t'e at*os 'ere continues to grow,

t'ese i* rove*ents s'ould continue wit' uture *odels and orecasts.

1'en deciding w'at ty es o data to use to create t'e inde+, t'e use o /ot'*eteorological and non3*eteorological data was considered. By including non3

*eteorological data *ore varia/les would /e accounted in t'e inde+. =lso, including

o ulation in t'e inde+ would allow or a *ore co* lete inde+. T'is could ossi/ly 'el

ro its increase /y allowing eslie-s to (now w'ere to s'i roducts /ased on /ot'

o ulation density as well as weat'er conditions.

6n t'e ot'er 'and, using non3*eteorological data as varia/les in t'e inde+ does

'ave negative outco*es. 1e are only e+ erts on to ics related to *eteorology. 1'ile

so*e o us 'ave /asic (nowledge o t'e /usiness world, we do not (now enoug' to create

t'e *ost accurate roduct. Including non3*eteorological varia/les in t'e inde+ *ay

*a(e t'e inde+ *ore realistic, /ut will certainly *a(e it less accurate. T'e urt'er we

ste out o our area o e+ ertise, t'e less accurate t'e inde+ can otentially /eco*e. =

less accurate inde+ will lead to less ro it gain, and otential ro it loss.

In order to guarantee t'e *ost accurate inde+, t'e Swi*de+ only includes

*eteorological varia/les. Stic(ing to our area o e+ ertise w'en creating t'e inde+

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allows us to /e *ore certain o t'e outco*e and as well as t'e accuracy o t'is roduct.

T'e *ost accurate roduct will yield t'e largest ro it. =s one varia/le, t'e inde+

includes te* erature values relative to nor*al or locations, w'ic' s'ows 'ow we

actored cli*atology into t'e inde+ as well. T'is results in a *ore realistic inde+. Based

on t'e reasoning a/ove, our inde+ includes only *eteorological varia/les as to ensure

eslie-s earns t'e largest a*ount o ro it ossi/le, re*ains t'e nu*/er one ool su ly

co* any, and *aintains its /usiness in an easier, si* ler *anner.

T'e varia/les included in t'e inde+ e4uation are listed /elow in order o

i* ortance. T'e irst varia/le a ects t'e inde+ results t'e *ost >weig'ted t'e 'eaviest int'e inde+ calculation e4uation?, w'ile t'e last varia/le a ects t'e inde+ t'e least.

). 9ew oint te* erature

2. $ig' te* erature relative to nor*al

8. Sun =ngle

. %loud cover

5. Pro/a/ility o reci itation

A. 1ind s eed

Please re er to a endi+ = to learn *ore a/out t'e reasoning /e'ind t'e weig'ting o

eac' varia/le, and to see t'e e ect eac' varia/le 'as on t'e inde+.

T'e Swi*de+ is co* rised o *eteorological varia/les essential to roviding t'e

/est in or*ation and incentive to t'e custo*ers. T'e Swi*de+, an e+tension on t'e

already esta/lis'ed 'eat inde+, w'ic' incor orates air te* erature wit' relative 'u*idity,

is designed to give custo*ers a *ore accurate idea o 'ow 'ot it actually eels outside,

and t'e li(eli'ood o consu*ers actually going swi**ing. T'e Swi*de+ lays a crucial

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role /y roviding *ore *otivation to get custo*ers outside in t'e 'eat and into t'eir

ools. T'e inde+ can s'ow t'at t'e weat'er is actually *ore conducive or swi**ing

t'an it *ay see* at irst glance. T'is o ers *ore incentive to use t'e ool. :or e+a* le,

custo*ers *ay only see t'at it is *ostly cloudy outside wit' a te* erature o seventy3

ive degrees :a'ren'eit and not t'in( t'at is o ti*al swi**ing weat'er. I we tell t'e*

t'e 'eat inde+ is


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:urt'er*ore, site s eci ic local radar will 'el deter*ine cloud cover or eac' town.

More suns'ine ty ically *eans *ore eo le utili ing ools. $owever, t'at can 4uic(ly

c'ange t'roug'out t'e course o t'e day, w'ic' *eans u dates occur as re4uently as

ossi/le, every 20 *inutes or aster.

&adar and satellite i*ages 'ig'lig't w'at is going on at a s eci ic ti*e w'ic'

*eans t'e ti*e o day needs to /e relayed. T'e angle o t'e sun will c'ange t'e solar

intensity at di erent ti*es o t'e day. :or t'is reason, t'e Swi*de+ accounts or sun

angle as well.

T'e inde+ also ta(es into account wind s eed and direction, as /ot' varia/lesa ect outdoor conditions. 1'en eo le are swi**ing and t'e wind /lows on t'e*, t'ey

eel colder. Because winds a ect t'e li(eli'ood o eo le swi**ing, t'ey are accounted

or in t'e inde+ and reduce t'e Swi*de+ value w'en resent. #usts are also accounted

or since t'ey can greatly a ect 'ow a*/ient te* eratures eel. T'ese varia/le are /e

u dated 'ourly wit' gusts on an as3needed /asis. #usts are es ecially i* ortant or not

only or t'e Swi*de+ /ut also to recogni e a roac'ing stor*s.

Preci itation value will s'ow custo*er-s /ot' t'e ast rain t'at 'as allen during

t'e day along wit' t'e ro/a/ility o *ore rain or t'e day. :urt'er*ore, t'e inde+

incor orates ro/a/ilities o reci itation >P6P-s? or u co*ing days, w'ic'

de*onstrates *ore o a orecasting use or t'e inde+.

T'e *orning starts at )2 >< 00 a.*. !9T? and s'ows all ast 'ours o

reci itation, (ee ing t'e sa*e 'ourly u date. =lso, t'e inde+ will s'ow u co*ing

P6P-s or uture 'ours o t'e day. :orecasted P6Ps or u co*ing days o t'e wee( are

e+ ressed as a ercentage or eac' individual day and are u dated daily.


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=ll data or t'ese varia/les co*es ro* a ree, govern*ent owned weat'er

co* any, t'e National 1eat'er Service >N1S?, a /ranc' o t'e National 6ceanic an

=t*os 'eric =d*inistration >N6==?. T'e National 1eat'er Service su lies u/lic

data w'ic' *eans it will not rovide an additional cost or PoolPal, Inc. or eslie-s. T'e

National 1eat'er Service stresses relia/ility and roves t'at wit' t'e act t'at t'ey 'ave

/een esta/lis'ed since )


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Swimdex Value LegendValue Description

0 No pool use1 Extremely limited pool use2 Very limited pool use3 Limited pool use4 Slightly limited pool use5 ypical pool use! "oderate pool use# Ele$ated pool use% &igh pool use' Extremely high pool use

10 "aximum pool use

PoolPal, Inc. will give eslie-s and u dated Swi*de+ daily. T'is u date will

include Swi*de+ values or t'e current day as well as values or t'e ollowing our days.

Basically, eslie-s will 'ave a ive day Swi*de+ outloo( u dated daily. T'is way,

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By investing in t'e Swi*de+, eslie-s can save over F).8 *illion nationally, wit'

savings o over F800,000 in t'e state o %ali ornia aloneG But 'ow is it ossi/le to save

so *uc' *oneyE Several ways t'is versatile and uni4ue Swi*de+ can save a co* any

li(e eslie-s *ore *oney annually are descri/ed /elow.

6ur roduct will 'el eslie-s save *oney /y roviding an inde+ t'at tells t'e

4uality o ool weat'er or a given day. I t'e weat'er is sunny, dry, and 'ot, t'en our

inde+ scores 'ig'. 1it' t'e nice weat'er, de*and increases, w'ic' /egs eslie-s to

increase su ly /y investing ti*e and *oney and increasing s'i ing to t'at area. T'is

ulti*ately allows eslie-s to *a(e *ore *oney t'roug' increased sales to H'ungrycusto*ers. 6n t'e ot'er 'and, i t'e weat'er is gloo*y, rainy, and cold, t'en t'e inde+

scores low. 1it' t'e oor weat'er, de*and decreases, w'ic' /egs eslie-s to decrease

su ly, *anu acturing, and s'i ing, t'us lowering o erating e+ enses and saving your

co* any *oney.

In su**ary, /elow is a list o ways to saveJ*a(e *oney t'roug' investing in t'e

Swi*de+, wit' esti*ated national and to two state >%=, TK? savings in arent'eses

)? Prevent inventory spoilage >F;55,8


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nu*/er o total national stores?. T'e Swi*de+ allows eslie-s to *ini*i e t'e

a*ount o inventory t'at s oils due to overstoc(ing. T'is inde+ rovides eslie-s

wit' use ul in or*ation a/out t'e weat'er, and t'us consu*er de*and. 6nce t'is

is (nown, eslie-s can *anu acture t'e o ti*al a*ount o inventory and

distri/ute it out in t'e *ost e icient *anner, reducing overstoc(ing and t'us

s oiling.

2? Trim or eliminate overtime pay of staff >F 02,0)AD F


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/asic idea t'at could /e used in t'e advertising sc'e*e t'is inde+ is not only

use ul to eslie-s /ut to t'e consu*er as well.

? Total potential savings: $1,438,396; $319,05 ; $ 55, 4 ! #ross total o t'ese

t'ree *oney3saving *et'ods is a/out F), 8


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= endi+ =

T'e Swi*de+ e4uation is *ade u o si+ varia/les dew3 oint te* erature, 'ig'

te* erature relative to nor*al, suns angle, cloud cover, ro/a/ility o reci itation, and

wind s eed. !ac' varia/le is weig'ed out o a ercentage o one 'undred on its

i* ortance in t'e overall e4uation.

9ew3 oint te* erature and t'e orecasted 'ig' te* erature relative to nor*al

stand out as t'e two *ost i* ortant varia/les in t'e e4uation. !ac' o t'ese varia/les

accounts or twenty3 ive ercent o t'e total e4uation toget'er *a(ing u 'al o t'e

inde+ e4uation. In t'e e4uation, t'e dew3 oint, in degrees :a'ren'eit, is *ulti lied /y0.78)5 so it calculates as a ositive nu*/er.

T'e te* erature is calculated relative to t'e nor*al te* erature. T'e e4uation

includes t'e orecasted 'ig' te* erature or t'at day *inus t'e average te* erature on

t'at day. I t'e orecasted te* erature is a/ove t'e average 'ig' te* erature or t'at day,

t'en t'e value will /e added into t'e Swi*de+ e4uation, /ecause a/ove average

te* eratures are ositive actors in t'e e4uation. I t'e te* erature is /elow t'e average

te* erature t'en t'e value will /e wit' a negative nu*/er. T'is will /e su/tracted ro*

t'e e4uation, /ecause /elow average te* eratures will not yield o ti*al swi**ing

conditions.

T'e ne+t i* ortant varia/le in t'e Swi*de+ e4uation is sun angle. T'is varia/le

co* rises twenty ercent o t'e inde+ e4uation. It deter*ines on 'ow strong t'e sun-s

rays will eel. T'e sun angle is calculated /y ta(ing t'e location in degrees latitude and

eit'er adding or su/tracting t'e suns location, de ending on t'e current season. T'is

nu*/er is t'en su/tracted ro* ;0 degrees and gives t'e angle o sun-s rays. T'e 'ig'er

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t'e angle, t'e stronger t'e sun-s rays will eel. 9uring winter a value o 28.5 degrees will

/e added to eac' location. T'is value will /e added /ecause t'e sun is located over t'e

Tro ic o %ancer w'ic' is 28.5 degrees sout' o t'e e4uator. 9uring t'e s ring and all

not'ing 'as to /e su/tracted or eac' location. $ere, eac' location-s latitude is su/tracted

ro* ninety degrees. T'is is /ecause t'e sun is located over t'e e4uator, w'ic' is at ero

degrees latitude. :inally, during t'e su**er 28.5 degrees will /e su/tracted ro* eac'

location-s latitude. 9uring t'e su**er t'e sun-s location is over t'e Tro ic o %a ricorn

w'ic' is located 28.5 degrees nort' o t'e e4uator. T'is is a ositive value in t'e

e4uation, /ecause t'e sun *a(es conditions eel war*er in t'e su**er.%loud cover is anot'er varia/le in t'e Swi*de+ e4uation. T'is actor *a(es u

i teen ercent o t'e total inde+ e4uation. M!T=& will /e used to s'ow t'e a*ount o

cloud cover, /ro(en u in to eig't's >)J


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redict accurately ive days in advance. T'e wind varia/le is su/tracted ro* t'e

Swi*de+ e4uation /ecause w'en 'u*ans sweat, and t'en wind /lows on t'e*, t'ey eel

colder. T'is is a negative actor /ecause ools are o ten used less on a windy day

co* ared to a day wit' cal* conditions.

6nce t'e varia/les are lugged into t'e e4uation and t'e e4uation is calculated,

t'e e4uation is divided /y ten. T'is allows t'e Swi*de+ scale to range ro* ero to ten.

Ten is t'e 'ig'est nu*/er on t'e scale and correlates to t'e /est swi**ing conditions.

T'is is a set *a+i*u* value or t'is e4uationD c'ances o e+ceeding t'is value are very

unli(ely. $owever, a value roduced /y t'e Swi*de+ e4uation can /e less t'an ero.ero is not set *ini*u* or t'e scale. 1'en values are less t'an oneD ool usage is at a

*ini*u* or t'at location and 'ig'ly unli(ely. T'e e4uation used to calculate t'e

Swi*de+ is ound /elow.

Swi*de+ !4uation

Swi*de+ >>0.78)5 L >9ew3 oint te* erature?? >0.5 L >Te* erature O =verage

te* erature?? >0.20 L Sun =ngle? O >0.)5 L >%loud cover?? O >0.) L >Pro/a/ility o

reci itation?? O >0.05 L 1ind s eed??? J )0

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= endi+ B

JJ Progra* is used to calculate t'e Swi*de+

include Qiostrea*.'R

include Q*at'.'R

int *ain >?

JJ T'e varia/les used in our e4uation

dou/le T 0.0D JJ Te* erature

dou/le Td 0.0D JJ 9ew3 oint Te* eraturedou/le Tavg 0.0D JJ =verage Te* erature

dou/le S= 0.0D JJ Sun s =ngle

dou/le at 0.0D JJ 9egrees atitude o ocation

dou/le S 0.0D JJ Season

dou/le % 0.0D JJ %loud %over

dou/le P6P 0.0D JJ Pro/a/ility o Preci itation

dou/le 1S 0.0D JJ 1ind S eed

dou/le Swi*de+ 0.0D

cout QQ U!nter t'e te* erature in degrees :a'ren'eit UD

cin RR TD

cout QQ U!nter t'e dew oint te* erature in degrees :a'ren'eit UD

cin RR TdD

cout QQ U!nter t'e average te* erature or t'e location in degrees :a'ren'eit UD

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&e erences

)? Securities and !+c'ange %o**ission >S!%? In or*ation ac(et )0 re ort or

eslie-s Pool*art, Inc. =vaila/le at 'tt JJwww.secin o.co*Jd) 95a.v7sAw.'t* .

2? U1eat'er :orecast =ccuracy #ets Boost wit' New %o* uter Model National %enter

or =t*os 'eric &esearc'. 'tt JJwww.ucar.eduJnewsJreleasesJ200AJwr .s't*l

8? H739ay, )039ay, ) 39ay :orecasts $ow ar can we goE #lenn Sc'wart , NB%)0 3

P'iladel 'ia, Bala %ynwyd, P=. The 87th AMS Annual Meeting.

'tt JJa*s.con e+.co*Ja*sJ

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