sustainable transport and sustainable development: framing policy, measuring progress

8/10/2019 Sustainable Transport and Sustainable Development: Framing Policy, Measuring Progress

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2008 Climate Works 1

Sustainable Transport and

Sustainable Development:

Framing Policy, MeasuringProgress

Michael Replogle

Presentation at

Asian Development Bank

January 31, 2014


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Achieve Universal primary education

Promote gender equality and empower women

Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other dieseases

Develop a Global Partnership for Development

Ensure Environmental Sustainability

Improve Maternal Health

Reduce Child Mortality

Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Millenium Development Goals

Transport
http://www.undp.org/mdg/goal1.shtmlhttp://www.undp.org/mdg/goal4.shtmlhttp://www.undp.org/mdg/goal5.shtmlhttp://www.undp.org/mdg/goal7.shtmlhttp://www.undp.org/mdg/goal8.shtmlhttp://www.undp.org/mdg/goal6.shtmlhttp://www.undp.org/mdg/goal3.shtmlhttp://www.undp.org/mdg/goal2.shtml


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Still Rising

Traffic deathsTraffic related air pollution

Inequality of access

Non-renewable fossil fuel use

Transport GHG emissions

Lock-in of high carbon,unsustainable transport andurban development patterns

Motor vehicle dependencePrivate motor vehicle tripshare


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Also Rising

National urban transport laws,policies, funding programs

Effective motor vehicle emission& fuel economy standards

Efforts to cut fossil fuel subsidies

High quality Bus Rapid Transit

Public bike programs

Parking reforms

Green freight initiativesAwareness that sustainabletransport is vital enabler ofsustainable development


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IntegratedTransport

System

Management

Supply side Demand side

Newhighways

HOVlanes

HOTlanes

Addinglanes

New railwaylines

Toll roads

SmartGrowth

Parkingcontrol

Cordontolls

Taxationpolicy

Public transportpriority

Congestioncharges

Informationsystems

Trafficcalming


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Solutions forSustainableTransport

Avoid Shift Improve

Avoid the needto travel

Shift to moreefficienttransport

modes

Improve fueland vehicle

technologiesand transport

network

management

The Paradigm Shift Continues

from Predict and Provide to.


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SLoCaT Partnership and the UN SustainableTransport Action Network


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H i g h L e v e l P o l i c a l F o r u m o n

Sustainable Dev elopment( S u cc e s so r t o C S D , B r a zi l a n d I ta l y

l e a d d e v e l o p m e nt o f H L P F f o r m a t)

Country (Party )

led:

O p e n W o r k in g

G r ou p o nSustainable

Dev elopment

Goals (SDGS)

(Hungary and

K eny a l ed)

Friends on Sustainable Transport(N e t h e rl a n d s , K e n y a a n d T h a i l e d )

R e gi o n al E S T F o ru m s( A f r i c a , A s i a , Eu r o p e a n d L a n A m e r i ca )

U N CR D o r W H O l e d i n c o o pe r a o n w i t h

R e g i o n a l C o m m i s s i on s

H i g h L e v e l P a n e l o f E mi n e n t

P e rs o ns o n P o st 2 0 15

D e v e l op m e n t A g e n da( L e d b y U K , I n d o n e s ia a n d L i b e r i a )

U N - T a sk T ea m o n P o st 2 0 15

Dev elopment A genda(in tern a l UN- tea m)

H i gh L e ve l G r o up o n

Sustainable Transport (HL G-ST)

T e c h ni c a l W o r k i n g G r o u p

( T WG ) o n S u st a in a bl e

Transport

(su p p orts HLG- ST)

U N - S ec r e t ar y G e n er a l

led:

Intergov ernmental

c o mm i e e f o rf i n a n ci n g o f

sustainable

dev elopment

( N o r wa y a n d

K azakhstan l ed)

N a o n a l a n d C i t y T r an s p o r t P ol i c i e s

E c o n om i c a n d S o c i a l

CommissionBe lgium and Guyana (l e a d

r e f o r m d i s c u s s i o n E C O S OC )

UN General

Assembly

Key Processes on

Sustainable Transport and

Sustainable Development

1

2

3

41

2

3

4

High Level Panel of Eminent Persons on

Post-2015 Development Agenda

Open Working Group on Sustainable

Development Goals

Friends of Sustainable Transport

High Level Group on Sustainable Transport


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Series of SLoCaT Submissions to Open Working Group onSustainable Development Goals and Results Framework

Universal Access to Safe, Clean and Affordable Energyand Transport for All

Secure universal access by sustainable transport by 2030 for rural and

urban populations (Indicators: mean daily travel time to reach

employment, education, healthcare, community services less than 90minutes and share of income spent on transport by poor under 20%;

double public transport, walking, and cycling trips by 2030)

Traffic related deaths and serious injuries are cut in half by 2030

Cut PM10 from transport 80% by 2030 and achieve universal sulfur of 50

PPM or less by 2030. Reduce GHG emissions from transport by 1.6-2.5

GT by 2020 globally and cut black carbon by 60% by 2030

Target

Target

Target

AccessEconomicAccessEconomic

SocialSocial

Environ-

mental

Environ-

mental


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Shift $175 billion of MDB transport funding over next

decade towards more sustainable transport

Sustainabletransport

Road

safety

Fuel

economyand fuel

standards

Non-motorizedtransport

Urbantransport

Greenfreight

Publictransport

Voluntary Commitment by MDBs

Assistanceto 150

Countries

500 Staff toprovideknowledge& expertise


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Asian Development Bank African Development

Bank

Latin American

Development Bank European Bank for

Reconstruction andDevelopment

European InvestmentBank

Islamic DevelopmentBank

World Bank

MDB Sustainable Transport Voluntary Commitment

Over the coming decade weexpect to provide more than $175

billion of loans and grants for transportin developing countries. These

investments will help to develop moresustainable transport systems

MDB Funding Shift Towards More Sustainable Transport?

Asian Development Bank Transport Funding


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Asian Development Bank African Development

Bank

Latin American

Development Bank European Bank for

Reconstruction andDevelopment

European InvestmentBank

Islamic DevelopmentBank

World Bank

MDB Sustainable Transport Voluntary Commitment

Over the coming decade weexpect to provide more than $175

billion of loans and grants for transportin developing countries. These

investments will help to develop moresustainable transport systems

We are committed to

introducing annual reporting on oursustainable transport related lending

and to developing commonarrangements for this purpose.

We have initiated work on definitions,setting targets and choosing indicatorsfor sustainable transport/mobility and

assistance provided to supportsustainable transport/mobility, with aview to finalizing these within 2012.


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Initial reportingon Rio+20

VoluntaryCommitments


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Objective-driven

Impact-basedQualitative & Quantitative

Unified

Transparent

Suited for Ex-Ante Evaluation

Adapted from: Adrien Veron-Okamoto, Rating Project

Sustainability, ADB 2012 Transport Forum

Sustainable TransportAppraisal Rating (STAR)

Appraisal Tool for MDB Commitment Should Be:


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Objective

Setting

Investment

Planning

Project Concept

Project ApprovalImplementation

PerformanceEvaluation

Situation

analysis

ST

Objectives

Performance

indicators

Assess

Performance

Align

Monitor

Evaluate

Results

Appraise

Maximize

Optimize

Adapted from: Adrien Veron-

Okamoto, Rating Project

Sustainability, ADB 2012Transport Forum

STAR ApplicationContext

country plans

managementperformanceevaluation

portfolioanalysis

annualprogress

evaluation

uptake by memberdevelopingcountries


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MDBs vary in approach to

sustainability appraisalMDB reporting on GHG impactsof transport

Appraising sustainabletransport in country plans -influence requests of memberdeveloping countries

Complementing STAR withglobal sustainable transportresults framework, analysis &monitoring

Considerations


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Credit:Yang JIANG, Daizong LIU, Suping CHEN, Assessment Tools for China LowCarbonCity Projects From the CSTCs Perspective, 2011


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Research Questions

What might a much more transit/NMT oriented urban

future look like in terms of mode share andinfrastructure requirements?

What are the implications for passenger travel in2030 and 2050?

What possible impacts would such a future have onenergy use, CO2/GHG, pollutant emissions, safety,traffic congestion?

What might the impacts be in terms of costs andbenefits (direct costs, external costs, cost savings)

What might be the mobility impacts acrossdemographic/socio-economic group?

Develop a policy basis and narrative for achieving thisalternative future

4


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Features of new scenario

High Shift Scenario:

Build up bus and rail systems so that most majorcities have large capacity systems

Encourage walking and cycling for short trips

Major push for e-bikes in lieu of motor cycles (and

cars) Cut car travel in cities by half

This is compared to a Base Case that aligns with the

IEA 4 degree scenario Some fuel economy improvement

No shift away from car growth

Other modes static

6

Our starting point :


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Our starting point :

MoMo result from IEA ETP 2012Modal shift plays an important role in 2 degree scenario

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2050

4DS

2050

2DS

2010 2050

4DS

2050

2DS

OECD Non-OECD

Passe

ngerkilometres

(trillions)

Pass Rail

Buses

Air

LDV

2-3W

7


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The new High Shift Scenario

Doubling of transit and NMT urban travel and about ahalving of LDV travel in 2050 v. Baseline

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HS Scenario travel per capita

Total travel in non-OECD preserved, travel cuts inOECD

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Infrastructure utilization: PKM perlane-km

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Walking and cycling tripassumptions

Trips per capita increase in High Shift case

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E-bikes a revolution?

Development of projectione-bike ownership per capita

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Reporting levels

Countries/regions in MoMo Reporting level for this study

OECD

North

America

USA Canada

Mexico

USA/Canada Mexico

Euope OECD Europe

Other EU/non-OECD

Eastern Europe

Former Soviet Union (CEE) Europe

OECD Europe w/other EU

Eastern Europe/FSU Europe

OECD

Pacific

Japan

S Korea

Austrailia/NZ

OECD Pacific

Africa /

Middle

East

South Africa

Middle East/North Africa

Other Africa

Africa/Middle East

Asia China

India

ASEAN Russia

Asian Transition Economies (ATE)

Other Developing Asia (ODA)

China

India

Russia Other Asia (ASEAN/ODA/ATE)

Americas Brazil

Chile

Other Latin America/Caribbean

Brazil

Other LAC

10


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Results at full reporting detail

Passenger kilometers of travel, High Shift case

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CO2 emissions ~ 50% reduction (4.9to 2.5 gt in 2050)

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$


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Global public/private spending through 2050

Source: Lew Fulton, IEA MoMo Analysis

Potential $50 Trillion Cost Savings from Sustainable Transport


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Interactions with UNFCCC NAMA MRV Guidance

Mitigation potential oftransportation sector

Organize Transport Day atUNFCCC COPs

Transport CO2 Analysis Needed at


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Transport CO2 Analysis Needed atMultiple Analysis Scales

Project &PortfolioProject &Portfolio

Plan &RegionPlan &Region

NationNation

Need to takecare to evaluatesystem-wideimpacts, induceddemand

Optimal scale toconsider systemimpacts formetropolitan

plans/programs

Often best forevaluating largenetworks andsystem policies

Especially in Developing World, Many Projects


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Especially in Developing World, Many ProjectsLack Data, Resources to Estimate TheseFactors

Low availability of regional travel models and dataLow institutional capacity

High-fidelity CDM style evaluation not worth the cost

Time and budget pressures in project appraisal


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TEEMP Transport Emissions

Evaluation Model for Projects

Excel-based, free-of-charge, open

source models

Designed to facilitate considerationof options and potential impacts

Most appropriate for ex-ante

evaluation in places with poor data

Developed collaboratively by Clean

Air Asia and ITDP with support from

ADB, GEF, others

Introduction to TEEMP: what and why

43

TEEMP: Separate Tools for Different


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1. Bike sharing

2. Bikeways

3. Pedestrian Facility Improvement

4. BRT5. LRT/MRT

6. Roads Projects Expressways, Rural Roads and UrbanRoads

7. Railway

8. City Sketch Analysis and Other Strategies - CommuterStrategies, Pricing Strategies, Eco-Driving , PAYDInsurance

TEEMP: Separate Tools for DifferentProject Types

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Run through of TEEMP: baseline scenario

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Activity

Number of trips

Average Trip Lengths

Average Speeds

Intensity Fuel Efficiencies of vehicles

Fuel Emission Factors

Structure

Mode shares (%)

Average occupancies

Vehicle fuel split

Vehicle emission standards split

Emissions fromthe motorizedvehicles within the

scope of theanalysis arequantified underthe baseline

scenario

R th h f TEEMP j t i


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Run through of TEEMP: project scenario(1)

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Activity

Number of trips

Average Trip Lengths

Average Speeds

Intensity Fuel Efficiencies of vehicles

Fuel Emission Factors

Structure

Mode shares (%)

Average occupancies

Vehicle fuel split

Vehicle emission standards split

Emissions from themotorized vehicleswithin the scope of

the analysis are alsoquantified under theproject scenario,accounting for

changes in ASIFparameters

TEEMP BRT 2012


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TEEMP BRT 2012

Updated version ofTEEMP BRT modelfor 2012:

Easier to use menuand shortcuts

Integration of peer-reviewed BRTScorecard

Inclusion of moreco-benefits inResults page

Conclusions


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Conclusions

Macro trends still in the wrong direction

Promising developments portend aturning point

Results framework for sustainabledevelopment impacts of sustainabletransport needed if transport is to gain

under SDGs Need to strengthen equity analysis for

sustainable transport

Tools are available at project and globallevel

With the right collaboration this can be the


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With the right collaboration, this can be theturning point

Thank you

Michael Replogle

Institute for Transportation &Development Policy

sustainable transport and sustainable development: framing policy, measuring progress

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