Sustainable Development : Sustainable Development :

The Challenge of the The Challenge of the Brutal FactsBrutal Facts

John S Nelson PEJohn S Nelson PEConsultant and Adjunct ProfessorConsultant and Adjunct ProfessorCivil & Environmental EngineeringCivil & Environmental Engineering

OverviewOverview

This is a Transformational This is a Transformational Period For Our Society Period For Our Society

Symptom: Financial Capital Symptom: Financial Capital Shift/DeleveragingShift/Deleveraging

Symptom: Natural Stock DepletionSymptom: Natural Stock Depletion

Symptoms and Problems Symptoms and Problems are Often Confusedare Often Confused

From A Bumper StickerFrom A Bumper Sticker

““Rhinelander: Rhinelander: A Quaint Northern Wisconsin Drinking A Quaint Northern Wisconsin Drinking

Village With A Fishing ProblemVillage With A Fishing Problem””

My Take: We Have a HUGE My Take: We Have a HUGE Consumption ProblemConsumption Problem

Wrong Priorities: Wrong Priorities: ““Green BlingGreen Bling”” Symbolisms Symbolisms vs. vs. ““InvisibleInvisible”” SubstanceSubstanceSilver Bullet Addiction:Silver Bullet Addiction: ““The BailoutThe Bailout””, , ““The The StimulusStimulus””, , ““Technology BreakthroughsTechnology Breakthroughs””,,…………..

Wishful ThinkingWishful Thinking: All Our : All Our Electricity Needs Cannot Be Electricity Needs Cannot Be Met by Renewables in 10 YearsMet by Renewables in 10 YearsLoose FactsLoose Facts: : ““Wisconsin is the Wisconsin is the Saudi Arabia of BiomassSaudi Arabia of Biomass”” --There is No Fuel Equivalent to There is No Fuel Equivalent to Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia

Result: Public DiscourseResult: Public DiscourseOften Based on Myths & SpinOften Based on Myths & Spin

Why?Why?

The Inevitable is Occurring, The Inevitable is Occurring, and it is Shockingand it is Shocking

Cognitive Impairments: Scale vs. Self InterestCognitive Impairments: Scale vs. Self Interest

Adaptive Challenges: Natural Step! Adaptive Challenges: Natural Step!

The Bicyclists Dilemma

Start With the Facts Start With the Facts Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but no one is entitled to their own facts!but no one is entitled to their own facts!

Facts have no Facts have no ““agendasagendas”” –– they provide they provide clarity and objectivityclarity and objectivity

Facts are neither optimistic nor pessimistic Facts are neither optimistic nor pessimistic -- they are pragmatic they are pragmatic

Collins: Identify and Collins: Identify and Confront the Brutal FactsConfront the Brutal Facts

MaterialityMateriality

IndisputabilityIndisputability

ContextualityContextuality

Brutal Physical Facts: Brutal Physical Facts: Singular Endowments Are Depleting Singular Endowments Are Depleting

Fuel: High DensityFuel: High Density

Water: PotableWater: Potable

Atmosphere: CarbonAtmosphere: Carbon

HabitatHabitat

“The thing is, they’re just not making that much of it any more”– Yogi Berra

The Real Energy Problem

Our standard of living - and economic wealth - depends on increasing consumption of Oil.

There are no Plug & Play substitutes for Oil –especially not Biofuels. Think Natural Step!

This is the physical equivalent of subprime mortgages – it can’t continue - the longer we postpone, the more difficult the solution

M. King Hubbert1903-1989

(American Petroleum InstituteSpring Meeting, 1956)

Fact: Oil Production Rate Fact: Oil Production Rate is Limited is Limited –– HubbertHubbert’’ss PeakPeak

Brutal Fact: Renewable Energy Brutal Fact: Renewable Energy Cannot Cannot ““Plug & PlayPlug & Play””

Consider the three sustainable sources of energy:

Solar fluxUnstable isotopesGeothermal

Fact: Solar Energy is DiffuseFact: Solar Energy is Diffuse

Fact: Fresh Water Fact: Fresh Water is Limited is Limited -- Ernie Ernie SmerdonSmerdon

US, China, & Elsewhere

Brutal Financial Facts: Brutal Financial Facts: Capitalism is More Than Just $$$ Capitalism is More Than Just $$$

The Five Capitals:The Five Capitals:Financial (what we tend to emphasize)Financial (what we tend to emphasize)Manufactured (Buildings)Manufactured (Buildings)HumanHumanNaturalNaturalSocialSocial

Not Everything Can Be Not Everything Can Be ““FinancializedFinancialized””Cost vs. ValueCost vs. ValueDiscount RateDiscount Rate

Fact: Overdependence on Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand can be Dangerous

Brutal Brutal Fact:SustainableFact:Sustainable Development Development RequiresRequires Organizational ChangeOrganizational Change

Incremental: Incremental: ““Bent BAUBent BAU”” –– Adjust Current Adjust Current Practices (Practices (GreenwashGreenwash))

Outsource: Outsource: ““Add & ApplyAdd & Apply”” -- Engage Engage Specialists Specialists

Transform: Transform: ““Organic & ProactiveOrganic & Proactive”” ––Fundamentally ChangeFundamentally Change

Brutal Fact: Sustainable Brutal Fact: Sustainable Development Requires New ToolsDevelopment Requires New Tools

Triple Bottom LineTriple Bottom Line

Life Cycle AnalysisLife Cycle Analysis

Natural StepNatural Step

More: References and LiteratureMore: References and Literature

Social

Physical / Environmental

Behavior

NatureConsumption

THE CHALLENGE:

DISCIPLINEDCONSISTENT

INTERDISCIPLINARYTHINKING

OPINION H

UMAN CONSTRUCTS

FACTS PHYSICAL LAWS

TEST:Does “IT”Move to theCenter?

Economic

The Triple Bottom LineThe Triple Bottom Line

TBL & LCA Case StudyTBL & LCA Case Study

© Ballinger

Life Cycle Example: Wisconsin Institutes of Discovery

Brutal Fact: LEED Is Brutal Fact: LEED Is Just the First StepJust the First Step

BedZEDBedZED –– London, EnglandLondon, England

Single Family Examples

Zero EnergyHomes

Solar Decathlon

Brutal Fact: Reuse or Rebuild Brutal Fact: Reuse or Rebuild Requires Different Thinking: Requires Different Thinking:

Economic Neutral Economic Neutral –– At BestAt Best

Functional Compromise Functional Compromise –– OftenOften

Life Cycle Life Cycle ““No BrainerNo Brainer””

Reuse or Rebuild?Reuse or Rebuild?EXAMPLES

Brutal Fact: Which Matters More, Brutal Fact: Which Matters More, The Building or the Cars?The Building or the Cars?

Local ExamplesLocal Examples

American Family National Headquarters

Epic Systems

Back to the Beginning:Back to the Beginning:Confront the Brutal FactsConfront the Brutal Facts

HubbertHubbert: : ““Our ignorance is not so vast as Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we already knowour failure to use what we already know”” ––We have the facts we need!We have the facts we need!

Collins: Collins: ““The challenge of leadership is to The challenge of leadership is to confront the brutal facts that govern the confront the brutal facts that govern the situationsituation””

““SustainabilitySustainability”” vs. vs. ““Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development””

Vocabulary MattersVocabulary Matters

Former Former –– Abstract, Abstract, Multi Multi DefinitionalDefinitional, , ImpliesImplies UtopiaUtopia

Latter Latter –– Tactical, Tactical, Tangible, Immediate Tangible, Immediate Action Oriented Action Oriented

No One Has Their No One Has Their ““Brain Around ThisBrain Around This”” Yet:Yet:Complexity and Tremendous Complexity and Tremendous ““VelocityVelocity””..Tendency to Tendency to ““LungeLunge”” at Simple Solutions.at Simple Solutions.

No Simple Answers:No Simple Answers:ThinkThinkActActEvaluateEvaluate

If You ArenIf You Aren’’t a Little Sobered and t a Little Sobered and OverwhelmedOverwhelmed……

Sustainable Development Requires Sustainable Development Requires a Concerted Serious Efforta Concerted Serious Effort

Sustainable Development : Sustainable Development :

The Challenge of the The Challenge of the Brutal FactsBrutal Facts

John S Nelson PEJohn S Nelson PEConsultant and Adjunct ProfessorConsultant and Adjunct ProfessorCivil & Environmental EngineeringCivil & Environmental Engineering