sustainable, co 2 -neutral source of energy
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Sustainable, CO 2 -neutral Source of Energy. http://www.energycommission.org/. In the last 100 years, the Earth warmed up by ~1° C. 100 years is nothing by geological time scales!. Temperature over the last 420,000 years - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Sustainable, CO2-neutral
Source of Energy
http://www.energycommission.org/
In the last 100 years, the Earth warmed up by ~1° C
100 years is nothing by geological time scales!
Temperature over the last 420,000 yearsSource: Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Shouldn’t we be worried about a new ice age?
Forget about Global warming!
Previous ice ages are
thought to be caused by
changes in the orbit and
inclination of the Earth.
…but there is something new happening!
“Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.”
We continue to refine the predictions of Global Warming …
The great American philosopher of the 20th century
Climate change due to natural causes (solar variations, volcanoes, etc.)
Climate change due to natural causes
and human generated
greenhouse gases
Can we predict the past?
CO2 Concentration, Temperature, and Sea LevelContinue to Rise Long after Emissions are Reduced
100 years
1,000 years
Sea-level rise due to ice melting: several millennia
Sea-level rise due to thermal expansion: centuries to millennia
Temperature stabilization:a few centuries
CO2 stabilization:100 to 300 years
CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions peak0 to 100 years
Today
The possibility / likelihood of global warming
is disturbing …
… but there may be a bigger problem!
Chu
Consumption of Energy Increased by 85% Between 1970 and 1999
20202015201020051999199519901985198019751970
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Quadrillion Btu
History Projections
By 2020, Consumption will Triple
Chu
World Energy Consumption by Region: 1970-2020
Chu
Global Energy Consumption, 1998
Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads)
4.52
2.72.96
0.286
1.21
0.2860.828
0
1
2
3
4
5
TW
Oil Coal Biomass NuclearGas HydroRenewable
How long will our fossil fuels last?
Courtesy Nate Lewis
M. King Hubbert Predicted in 1959 that U.S. Domestic Production would Peak in 1970.
Chu
Production in the Lower 48 StatesPeak discovery: 1930Peak production: 1972
Dis
cov
eri
es
, Gb
/a
Pro
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on
, G
b/a
World production of oil and gas is predicted to peak within 10 - 40 years
2010
Energy conservation and efficiency can buy time
(a factor of ~2) but the fundamental problem remains
(in the U.S. in 2002)
1-4 ¢
2.3-5.0 ¢ 6-8 ¢
5-7 ¢
Today: Production Cost of Electricity
0
5
10
15
20
25
Coal Gas Oil Wind Nuclear Solar
Cost6-7 ¢
25-50 ¢
Cos
t , ¢
/kW
-hr
Courtesy Nate Lewis
Energy Costs
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
$/GJ
Coal Oil Biomass ElectB
razi
l Eur
ope
$0.05/kW-hr
www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea
Courtesy Nate Lewis
Potential Sources of Energy when Fossil Fuels Run Out
Nuclear Fission
Magnetic Plasma Confinement,Inertial Fusion
Waste &Nuclear Proliferation
Nuclear Fusion
10 TW = 10,000 new 1 GW reactors: i.e., a new
reactor every other day for the next 50 years
Solar Energy
We do not know how to store electrical energy on a massive scale
Wind Power Generation
Nature has found a way to convert sunlight, CO2, water and nutrients
into chemical energy
Photosynthesis Photovoltaic andelectricity to
chemical
H O
O H
2
22
sc M
e
sc
e
M
CO
Sugar
H O
O
2
2
2
Solar to Chemical Energy
Semiconductor/liquid junctions
Energy gained in corn ethanol production
Total CO2 emissions
From Summary of Renewable Fuel Options (NCEP)
“Unlike corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol has
potential to achieve near-zero net carbon
emissions.
Cultivation of cellulosic feedstocks requires
very low energy inputs and, if sustainably
managed, the carbon released during fuel
combustion is reabsorbed by the growth of
new feedstocks.”
~ 450 M acres of land under cultivation in the US
• Land with Crop Production Potential, 1990: 2.45x1013 m2
• Cultivated Land, 1990: 0.897 x1013 m2
• Additional Land needed to support 9 billion people:
0.416x1013 m2
• Remaining land available for biomass energy: 1.28x1013 m2
Courtesy Nate Lewis
Biomass resources estimate
Photosynthesis:the creation of chemical energy from CO2,
sunlight, water and nutrients
Engineering microbes to produce drugs
• Malaria is caused by a single-cell protozoan–Transmitted by Anopheles mosquito
–Destroys red blood cells
• 1.5-2.7 million people die of malaria every year–90% of the victims are children
–40% of the world’s population is at risk
Artemisinin-based drugs
• The current cost for an artemisinin-based drug is approximately $2.25. –Artemisinin generally adds $1.00-1.50 to the
cost for drugs–Most developing countries spend less than
$4/person/year on health care
• As many as 10-12 treatments are needed for each person annually
• World Health Organization estimates that 700 tons will be needed annually
Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling
Identify the biosynthesis pathways in
A. annua
Can synthetic organisms be engineered to produce
methane from sunlight, CO2,
water and sustainable sources of nutrients?
Hybrid Devices
Integration of many disciplines will be needed
New ideas
Chemical Fuel From Solar Energy
ComputingSciences
MaterialsScience
Physics,Chemistry
LifeSciences
Nanoscience
A solution may lie at the interface of biology and
the physical sciences at the nano-scale
A diversified portfolio of investments is needed
National Concerns
Sustainable, CO2 neutral energy
which is intimately tied to energy security
1) National security
3) The environment
2) Economic prosperity
Science
•The pursuit of technological goals has led to some of the most innovative science.
Technology
•Science done with new technology has the best chance of discovery.
Lawrence Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley
Who will keep the lights on after we run out of fossil fuel?