sustainable biofuels: prospects & challenges - world...

Sustainable Biofuels: Prospects and Challenges

Dr Jeremy WoodsA member of the UK Royal Society Working Group on Biofuels& Porter Institute, Imperial College London

The Guardian – 12th Feb 2008 - Monbiot

‘Apart from used chip fat, there is no such thing as a sustainable biofuel.’

…The European commission, by contrast, does have a plan, and it's a disaster. It recognises that "the oil dependence of the transport sector ... is one of the most serious problems of insecurity in energy supply that the EU faces". Partly in order to diversify fuel supplies, partly to cut greenhouse gas emissions, it has ordered the member states to ensure that by 2020 10% of the petroleum our cars burn must be replaced with biofuels. This won't solve peak oil, but it might at least put it into perspective by causing an even bigger problem.’

Wednesday, 05 March 2008 3

Biofuels study and report

The study was launched on the 16th October 2006Open call for evidence issued

Participatory industry workshop held at Royal Society in London on 12th January 2007

Facilitated interaction with feedback fed directly into report developmentOver 20 industries represented including agriculture, chemical, oil and vehicle sector representatives (UK and inter / multi-national)

Report launched on the 14th January 2008

ChairProfessor John Pickett CBE FRS Rothamsted Research

Working groupProfessor Dennis Anderson Centre for Environmental Policy,

Imperial College LondonProfessor Dianna Bowles OBE Centre for Novel Agricultural Products,

University of YorkProfessor Tony Bridgwater Bioenergy Research Group, Aston UniversityProfessor Paul Jarvis FRS Atmospheric and Environmental Science,

University of EdinburghDr Nigel Mortimer North Energy AssociatesProfessor Martyn Poliakoff, FRS School of Chemistry, University of NottinghamDr Jeremy Woods Porter Alliance, Centre for Environmental Policy,

Imperial College London

SecretariatMr Tanzeed Alam Science Policy OfficerMr Richard Heap Manager

For more information, please contact the Secretariat: + 44 (0) 207 451 2588/2590, [email protected] or [email protected]


Working group membership

mailto:[email protected]

Climate Change

Global / RegionalEnergy Security

Rural Development

Local / ConsumerUsability / reliability

CostEnvironment /

health[inc air quality]

Sustai

nabil

ity

Drivers and obstacles for bioenergy:conflicts and synergies are inevitable

What is driving biofuels?

UK Petrol Price (2007)Wholesale petrol = $15/GJPump purchase = $55/GJ

Zambia Petrol Price (March 2006)Wholesale petrol = $18/GJPump purchase = $44/GJ

Zambia projected ethanol production costs$16 to $38/GJ (no taxes)

C-molasses to straight juice used Assumes no value for co-products e.g. electricity

barr

el

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

Oil (Dubai): $/GJGas (EU): $/GJCoal (EU): $/GJ

Source: adapted from www.bp.com (2007)

Global trends in fossil energy prices (1972 to 2006)

Global petroleum prices ($/barrel) and ethanol production (Mgal/yr. 1960 to 2006; Kammen et al, 2007)

$ pe

r bar

rel

7

0.0E+00

1.0E+10

2.0E+10

3.0E+10

4.0E+10

5.0E+10

6.0E+10

7.0E+10

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Gro

ss 'C

ost'

(US$

per

yea

r)

-1.0E+08

4.0E+08

9.0E+08

1.4E+09

1.9E+09

2.4E+09

Con

sum

ptio

n (b

arre

ls p

er y

ear)

Gross cost to Africa (US$ per year) barrels per yearBased on BP 2007

Costs of oil provision to Africa?

•Estimated ‘oil expenditure’ for Africa = US$62 billion in 2006

•In Tanzania and Senegal c. 40% of foreign exchange earnings are spent on purchasing oil products

•Estimated ‘expenditure’has tripled since 2002

•Consumption has increased by 10%

Woods, 2007 (Burkina Faso)

Climate ChangeBiofuels can contribute to a meaningful reduction in greenhouse gas emissions but requires the development of highly efficient and integrated supply chains. Existing examples of biofuels programmes around the world starkly illustrate the range of greenhouse gas savings that can be realised.

Average Brazilian ethanol results in reductions of c 80% in greenhouse gas emissions, on a life cycle analysis, compared to petrol (Worldwatch Institute 2006). US maize-based ethanol struggles to deliver reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of 10%. UK- projected reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of anywhere between 10% and 80% could be delivered from wheat to ethanol (Woods & Bauen 2003).

Current policy frameworks and subsidies for biofuels are not directed towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but rather provide incentives for national supply targets. As a result, there is currently no incentive to invest in the systems that would deliver low greenhouse gas biofuels.


Energy SecurityGlobal primary oil demand projected to grow 1.3% per year up to 2030

reaching 116mb/d (from 84mb/d in 2005), transport sector accounting for most of this increased demand (IEA 2006).

Much of the current demand for oil is met by OPEC; this has energy security implications especially if supply routes are disrupted. The surge of demand for oil from developing regions (China, India and Latin America in particular) + continued high demand from Europe & USA is continuing to drive oil prices higher. The current era of high oil prices has started to make biofuels, and other close to market alternative technologies, a realistic alternative.Virtually any degree of energy security can be achieved if countries are willing / able to pay for it. E.g. exploiting tar sands and oil shales to produce synthetic fuels.

Note: costs of producing synthetic fuels are high and are much more carbon intensive than for conventional oil fuels.

Using unconventional energy resources could seriously compromise objectives to mitigate climate change.

Whether this trade-off between energy security and climate change mitigation is avoided by the production of biofuels will depend on how biofuels are produced and on developments right across the supply chain.


Rural developmentWill biofuel production compromise food production and decrease the quality of life for the rural poor of the world?Biofuels could provide a part of the answer to this problem by diverting ‘surplus’ production to a new market whilst maintaining productive capacity. In many developing countries, rising food-based commodity prices will assist investment in agriculture and forestry which, in turn, will improve yields and production efficiencies. With careful implementation, the rural poor of these countries could be major beneficiaries of a new biofuel-inspired development dynamic. However, without specific intervention, the urban poor in developing countries will suffer as a result of increased food prices unless (i) economic prosperity rises as a whole, and; (ii) a reasonable amount of the value generated by biofuels is retained locally.

This is a critical component of understanding how to harness FDI beneficially

We do not assess these issues in detail, but highlight the dangers of an overly simplistic food versus fuel debate when synergistic opportunities for food and fuel exist and should be maximised.


11

Data &

indicators

Environmental Policy & Institutions

• Net emissions to air, water and land

• Climate change mitigation & adaptation

• Inc GHGs

• Above and below-ground carbon balances

• Biodiversity

• Good agricultural practice & soil management

• Waste

• Direct & Indirect Land Use

• New policies & plans

• Directives

• Incentives

• Barriers

• Institutional capacity

• Technology neutral options

Economic

• Competitiveness

• Market breakthrough

• Incentives

• Barriers & Regulations

• Taxes

• IP rights and ownership

• Value chains and value retention

Social

• LCA Social impacts

• health & safety

• environmental quality

• Labour conditions

• Welfare / happiness

• Equitable access to local resources

• e.g. land tenure

• Barriers

Reporting, Assurance & Certification

Regional Strategic Drivers e.g. EU’s Lisbon CriteriaDiaz-Chavez, 2007

Scale &

Location

Balancing environmental, economic and social issues for sustainable biofuel development

Overview of Biofuel Conversion Pathways


Solid Biomass *

Sugar-richcrops

Oil crops

Wet Biomass *

Gasification

Pyrolysis

FermentationC6 + C5

Yeast / Bacterial

Extraction

AnaerobicDigestion

CHP

TransportFuels

Biogas

DME Dimethyl Ether

Ethanol /Butanol

Methanol

F-Tropsch

Diesel

CH

4

BiodieselC

O+H

2E

ster

ifica

tion

Bioo

il

Biological

Mechanical

Thermochemical

Biological

H2

Includes:Herbaceous Perennials

e.g. Micsanthus, switchgrass Woody Perennials

Short rotation coppice e.g.willow, poplar

Straw and Forest ResiduesMunicipal Waste

e.g Wheat, Maize, Sugar Beet

e.g. Rape (Canola), Oil Palm, Jatropha, etcAlso waste fats and oils

Electricity& / orHeat

e.g. cattle, pig and human manure

Notes: • Combustion not shown • * Includes Municipal waste• Synthesis gas requires catalysts for upgrading

• Indicates requirement of reformerSource: Revised from DG TREN (Maniatis, 2003; Woods, 2003)

Understanding supply chains and boundary issues


Feedstock transport

Biofuel production

Cultivation & harvest

Cultivation & harvest

Biofuel transport

Waste materialWaste

material

Alternative waste

management

Boundary for monthly carbon intensity calculationPrevious

land use

Alternative land use

Fossil fuel reference system

Assessed separately

Excludes minor sources, from:

• Manufacture of machinery or equipment

• PFCs, HFCs, SF6

Assessed ex post by RTFO Administrator

Biofuel use

Changes at one point in the supply and use chain have implications for other segments of the chain

E4TECH, 2007

Biofuel pathways- biomass and energy production

Detailed site-specific assessments are needed to evaluate potentialsBeware volumetric comparatorsFuture biofuels may not be ethanol or methyl esters


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Barle

y

Wheat

Corn (M

aize)

Suga

rbeet

Suga

rcane

UK SRC

EtOH

Soyb

ean

Castor

bean

sSu

nfolow

er see

dRa

pesee

(Can

ola)

Jatrop

haOil P

almUK S

RC FT

Litre

s/ha

0

50

100

150

200

GJ/h

a

l/ha bioethanoll/ha biodieselGJ/ha bioethanolGJ/ha biodiesel

5-Mar-08 [email protected] 15

Somerset Preliminary Results Based on RTFO Defaults

050

100150200250300350400

Gasoli

ne - o

nly

Wheat E

tOH- F

rance

Wheat E

tOH- C

anada

Wheat E

tOH- U

K

Brazil S

ugarc

aneUK S

ugarb

eet

US Maiz

e

UK-'bes

t'UK-'g

ood'

UK-base

UK-wors

t

gCO

2eq/

km

gCO2e/car.km

Wheat Grain

UK- RTFO implications for E85 use in SomersetWoods & Brown (2007; EU-BEST project data)

‘Worst case’ GHG savings between 53% to -25%Using ‘country level (conservative) default factors’ as defined by the UK-Renewable Transport Fuel’s Obligation Reporting Requirements (RFA, 2007)

120gCO2/km tailpipe = c. 132 gCO2eq/km LCA

BiorefineriesA biorefinery concept based on integrated biological and thermal processing for transport fuels and chemicals

Such systems are already emerging


Distillation

Gasification Synthesis

Hydrogenolysis

Biomass

Surplus electricity

Waste water

EthanolFermentation

Electrolysis

Lignin

H2

Gasification

Pyrolysis

Transport fuels, Chemicals

Catalysis

Methanol synthesis

Syngas

MOGDMTG

Conventional synthetic gasoline and diesel

Biomass

Gasification

Fischer Tropsch HydrogenolysisZeolite cracking

Fast pyrolysis

Vegetable oil

Refining

SNG

Syngas

Liquid bio-oil

RS Biofuels Working Group Conclusions


A coherent approach will:avoid the unintended consequence of solving one problem at the expense of exacerbating another;see biofuels as part of a portfolio of approaches that also includes, for example, greater energy efficiency, electric vehicles, hydrogen and fuel cells, and fiscal incentives such as carbon pricing based on avoided greenhouse gas emissions;balance growth of feedstock against other uses of land;deploy an assessment of sustainability that encompasses the complete cycle from growth of the raw material to end-use irrespective of where each stage in the cycle takes place;commit to invest properly in the required R&D;provide aptly targeted fiscal incentives;develop a process for effective public engagement on biofuel issues.

Biological Mitigation Options and The Carbon Cycle (GtC)

Source: http://www.vitalgraphics.net/graphic.cfm?filename=climate2/large/11.jpg

121

5.5[20.2 GtCO2] 92

0.5

C-cycle options:

1. Bigger2. Un-balance (more down than up)3. More efficient use of biomass flows4. Fossil-fuel substitution5. Protect major existing carbon stocks

5-Mar-08 [email protected] 19

THANK YOU!

IEA Task 40TSEC Biosys

NILENew & Improved

Lignocellulosic Ethanol

Dr Jeremy Woods (Porter Institute)e-mail: [email protected]: +44 (0)20 7594 9328

sustainable biofuels: prospects & challenges - world...

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