Sustainability technologies in the BRICS countries

Rainer Walz

Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany

Page 2

Content

Background and heuristics Overview of empirical results Results for the sustainability technology fields Preliminary Conclusions

Page 3

Background

Increasing ecological problems - also within BRICS countries- Global problems require emissions reductions in all countries

Environmental problems are often associated with infrastructure and resource use- Energy, transport, water, and material use key issues- Environmental concern linked to other dimensions (=sustainability)

Political initiatives on various levels- International environmental policies, MDG- Technology cooperation between industrialized countries and BRICS

countries and among them Focus of research interest

- competences and incentives of BRICS countries in sustainabiltiy technologies

- First step: (relative) importance of sust. technologies in BRICS NIS

Page 4

Environmental Kuznets Curve

Environmental pressure

GDP/capita

emissions industrializedcountries

emissions catching upcountries

technology andknowledge transferbetween countries

tunnel

Page 5

Key requirements and incentives for sustainability innovations

Integrating sustainability technologies into the economy Success factors

- the same as for the NIS in general- level of sustainability technology relevant capabilities

Incentive: emissions reduction and access to new technology for modernizing economy

Lead market strategy Incentive: emission reduction and first mover advantage for sustainability technologies

on the world market Success factors

- Lead market characteristics of technology: Non Heckscher-Ohlin goods- Competitiveness of industry clusters - Rising demand oriented towards innovation and enabling economies of scale, - Innovation friendly regulation- Overcoming path dependency- Technological capability of country with regard to the technology

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System of Sustainability Innovation (SSI)In

tern

atio

nal

trad

e

Inte

rnat

ion

al p

olic

ies

R & D infrastructure

Research systemIndustrial system

Demand for sustainabilitytechnologies

Government

R & D policies

Government

Environmental policiesregulation ofInfrastructure

Frameworkcondition:

environmentalsituation,

infrastructureand

natural resourceavailability

competences insustainabilitytechnologies

research relatedto sustainability

technologies

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Empirical Analysis

Technologies with potential for increasing (ecological) sustainability- Renewable energy and carbon neutral fossil fuels (CCS)- Energy efficiency in buildings- Material efficiency- Transportation- Water and wastewater- Additional: social science research on diffusion/obstacles of these technologies

Empirical concept- Research institutions and programs (statistics, interviews) with relation to

sustainability technologies- Publications on implementation issues of sustainable technologies (selected

(S)SCI journals and fields); problem: language bias- (International) patents in technologies relevant for sustanability- Trade statistics of potential sustainability technologies (UN-COMTRADE)

Guiding questions- Short term: What is the level of activity and capability- Research outlook: How do the activities in each field match (intensity of research

with patent, trade and publication specialization, influence of demand, regulation, other factors)

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Overview of Results I: World Patent Shares and World Trade Shares of Sustainability Technologies in BRICS Countries

BRICS account for 2.5 % of intern. sust.

technology patents 9 % of world exports

of sust. relevant technologies

4 % of sust. techn. diffusion research

Importance for BRICS 5 % (IN) to 13 %

(ZA) of patents 3 % (RU) to 12 %

(BR) of exports

Change over time I, C: high increase B, S: increase R: no dynamic

Sustainability Technologies

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

6,0%

7,0%

BR CN IN RU ZA

WPS WTS Sust. Publ.

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Overview II: Specialization of BRICS Countries on Sustainability Technologies

Brazil and South Africa positive, other countries negative specialization

Patent specialization more positive than trade

Accounting for imports (RCA) changes picture not substantially

Preliminary: China specializes more on national than int. sust. techn. patents

Results differ for technology fields

Specialization Patterns Sustainability Technologies(indicators normed between - 100 and + 100

0 = sust.techn. equals average of manufacturing)

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

BR CN IN RU ZA

RPA RTS RCA

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Overview III: Importance of trade in sustainability technologies between BRICS-countries

considerable share of exports to other BRICS countries

important export market for BR

Important import market for IN, RU, ZA

Role of China underestimated: substantial share of BRIS sust. technology exports go to China

Importance of other BRICS countries as trade partner for sustainability technologies

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Brazil China India Russian Federation South Africa

Exports to other BRICS (%) Import from other BRICS (%)

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Overview IV: Research System

Sustainability Technologies as such no explicit key area of R&D priorities

Numerous links of selected sustainability fields e.g. energy and transportation, resources

Links differ between countries- B: Biomass, energy, transport, water- R: Energy, transport- I: agriculture/life science- C: renewable energy, clean coal,

buildings- S: energy, resource based industries,

water Type of programs

- Mostly cross cutting- Some specific programs, especially for

energy, transport and water- Sustainability issues in transportation

rather weak? Lower priority for (social) science research

on diffusion of sustainability technologies

specialisation of sust. diffusion publications(indicator normed between - 100 and + 100)

-100 -50 0 50 100

BR

CN

IN

RU

ZA

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Renewable Energy and CCS

Patent specialization

- Positive for Russia and South Africa (clean coal related)

- Some positive specialization at disaggregated technology level (e.g. solar thermal and water energy)

Negative export specialization Trade between BRICS countries

- Export markets for Brazil and Russia

- China as import country Research system

- Renewable resources important

- Clean coal in China important Conclusion

- Promising field, high dynamic

- BRICS still relying on knowledge and technology from other countries

- Some research to reduce weaknesses

renewable energy + ccs

-100 -50 0 50 100

Brazil

China

India

Russia

South Africa

RPA RTS

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Buildings

Average patent specialization - Mostly around average- Only India negative specialization

Negative export specialization, with the exception of China (strong in cooling)

Trade between BRICS countries- Export markets for India and Russia- China as import country

Research system- Moderate importance in Russia and

China Conclusion

- BRIS still relying on knowledge and technology from other countries

- Promising field for China

buildings

-100 -50 0 50

BR

CN

IN

RU

ZA

RPA RTS

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Materials Use

Positive patent specialization

- Renewable resources especially strong

- Recycling in China, India weak Export specialization

- Positive for Brazil (ren. resources) and South Africa (recycling)

- Negative for other BRICS countries Trade between BRICS countries

- Export markets for Brazil and Russia

- China as import country Research system

- Renewable resources in Brazil

- Recycling in other RICS countries Conclusion

- Brazil improves strengths

- C,I improve weaknesses

material efficiency

-100 -50 0 50 100

BR

CN

IN

RU

ZA

RPA RTS

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Transport Technologies

Positive patent specialization only for Russia and South Africa (CCS related)

Export specialization- Positive for Brazil- Negative for India, Russia, South

Africa Trade between BRICS countries rather

low Research system

- Important field in B, R, C- Less important for I, S

Conclusion- Very dynamic field- Sustainability aspects within the

field must be strengthened

transportation

-100 -50 0 50 100

BR

CN

IN

RU

ZA

RPA RTS

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Water Technologies

Mostly positive patent specialization - BRIS: positive for water supply and

wastewater- C: negative, except flooding- Efficient water use no key topic

Negative trade specialization- Across all subsectors

Trade between BRICS countries medium- Export markets for India and Russia- China as import country

Research system- Important in Brazil and South Africa- Growing perception: that field becomes

more and more important in R, I, C Conclusion

- BRICS still relying on other countries,- but important field for improvement in the

future

water technologies

-100 -50 0 50 100

BR

CN

IN

RU

ZA

RPA RTS

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Preliminary Conclusions

Sustainability technologies not only improve environment – also potential to foster modernization of economy

Good functioning of system of sustainability innovations required Sustainability technologies are not an overall key priority in BRICS countries,

- but there are numerous links and good starting points Countries differ with regard to structure of their competences and strategies

- Brazil: lead market strategy for biomass based technologies?- Russia: some knowledge base, but not much (market) dynamics? Focus on research

exploitation instead of efficiency?- India: no clear picture, priorities too much in other areas?- China: trade performance much stronger than knowledge base, but high dynamics in

many fields- South Africa: some knowledge base, but difficulties to receive enough attention?

Increasing importance of Intra-BRICS-trade Research on diffusion of sustainability technologies below average Policy conclusions

- strategic and systemic positioning necessary- environmental and infrastructure policies are demand oriented innovation policies!

Next research steps: - role of demand and regulation in BRICS countries - Long-term: how do systems of sustainability innovations function