Surface parameters forecast in Vancouver and Whistler area

- Verification of MC2v498 parallel runs

Yan ShenUniversity of British Columbia

Outline

• Reviews of MC2v498 at our group• Verification of • Surface temperature forecast• in Vancouver and Whistler during

Feb 10 -17, 2005:• Verification of surface wind speed forecast

in Whistler area.• Conclusions

Reviews of MC2v498 at UBC

• Installed in May 2004• From June-October, tested on monster• Started in Nov 2004, running for MC2 sensitivity tests

(&CMC)• Started on Jan 1st 2005,running for Duke energy project.

• MC2 parallel runs performed from Jan 21 to Feb 28, 2005

• Started on March 3rd, running as our operational model

Parallel runs on 4 km grid resolution combining:

Cascade files from MC2v498 12 km grid runFCREST surface scheme

Kain-Fristch deep convective schemeKong-Yau microphysics scheme

(KFC&KY)Improved geophysicical file (from RPN)

NEW

UBC&CMC ; RWDI&CMCMC2 sensitivity tests (3rd test)

Preliminary results of parallel runs

• Compare MC2v498’s raw forecasts against MC2v491’s raw forecasts and observation (OBS) surface data(two EC stations) during Feb10-17, 2005.

VANCOUVER INT'L Latitude:49° 12'N

Longitude:123° 10' WElevation: 4.30m

WHISTLERLatitude:50°7'N

Longitude:122° 57' W Elevation:657.80m

Choose two locations : ( both are EC stations)

UBC 4 km domain

Complex Terrain inSouthern BC !

Verification of surface temperature forecast

• Use • surface temperature forecasts from

MC2 4 km operational and parallel runs

• Surface observation data: from EC web page

MC2V498 MC2V49110/02/2005

10/02/05

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

PST (0700 - 1700)

temperature (c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

Whistler

10/02/05

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

PST (0100 - 2300 )

temperature (c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

Vancouver

Mc2v498 is close to OBS

MC2v498 MC2v49111/02/2005

Whistler

11/02/05

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

PST (0100 - 2300 )

temperature

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

Vancouver

MC2v498 is close to OBS at day timeMC2V491 is close to OBS at night

11/02/05

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

PST (0700-1700)

temperature (c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

mc2v498 mc2v49112/02/2005

12/02/05

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

PST (0700-1700)

temperature(c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

Whistler

12/02/05

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

PST (0100 -2300)

temperature (c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491Vancouver

MC2v498 is cold, butwarmer than MC2 v491

MC2v498 MC2v49113/02/2005

13/02/05

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

PST (0700- 1700)

temperature (c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

Whistler

13/02/05

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

PST (0100- 2300)

temperature (c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

Vancouver

MC2 is cold

MC2v498 MC2v49114/02/2005

14/02/05

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

PST (0700 - 1700)

temperature (c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491Whistler

14/02/05

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

PST (0100- 2300)

temperature (c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

Vancouver

MC2 is cold !V498 is better at day time, v491 is better at night.

MC2v498 MC2v49115/02/2005

15/02/05

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

PST (0700 - 1700 )

temperature (c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

Whistler

15/02/05

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

PST (0100- 2300)

temperature (c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

Vancouver

MC2v498 is close to OBS in Whistler

In Vancouver,MC2v498 is better at day time,MC2v491 is better at night

MC2v498 MC2v49116/02/2005

Whistler

16/02/05

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

PST (0100-2300)

temperature (c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

Vancouver

Perfect

MC2v498 is warmer at day time

16/02/05

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

PST (0700-1700)

temperature (c)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

Results for verification of surface temperature forecast

• MC2v498 has a warm bias near water. But it has a good performance in predicting the surface temperature in mountainous area (need more verifications).

• How to use Kalmen filter for MC2 finer grid run’s results in the future?

• Does Kalmen filter know day-time forecast or night-time forecast?

Verification of Surface wind speed

forecast • Use the case of Feb 11, 2005. Both MC2 finished

4 km and 2 km grid runs on that day.• Compare surface wind speed forecasts with OBS

hourly data in Whistler

MC2V498 4 km MC2v491 4km

4PST

10PST

MC2v498 4km MC2v491 4km

16PST

22PST

Parallel runs on 2 km gridcombining:

• Cascade files from MC2v498 4 km grid runFCREST surface scheme

Kain-Fristch deep convective schemeKong-Yau microphysics scheme(KFC&KY) …

• Only completely finished with four days during this experiment of MC2 parallel runs

MC2v498 2 km MC2v491 2km

6PST

8PST

MC2v498 2km

12PST

MC2v491 2km

10PST

MC2v498 2km MC2v491 2km

14PST

16PST

Seems in this case :MC2v498 produces faster wind speed than

MC2v491in Mountainous area of BC

?

11/02/2005

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

PST(0700-1700)

wind speed (km/hr)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

mc2v491.KF

From OBS Hourly data between PST 0700 and 1700, the wind speed in Whistler is always equal to zero.What’s wrong??? (even Kalmen Filter forecast) ------ Same location, same day….

Whistler

Our thought

• MC2 model always underestimate the wind speed.

• Really?• (This problem might only exist near

water or low flat surface).

12/02/2005

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

PST(0700-1700)

wind speed (km/hr)

obs

mc2v498

mc2v491

mc2v491.KF

Another Case 12/02/2005

Seems nothing is right if OBS data is right ?

Whistler

Results for verification of surface temperature forecast

• It’s very difficult to accurately forecast surface wind speed in mountainous area of BC ( at least in EC Whistler station)

• Sometimes, Kalmen filter makes surface wind speed forecast worse !?

Optimistic idea for surface wind forecast

• Obtain more OBS data from mountainous area of BC? Some new OBS stations will be build up in Whistler area before 2008 (2010 winter Olympics issue).

• Use more advanced MC2&RPN physics package.

• Use other model initial data than NAM forecasts,

• (GEM or GFS) ?

• Produce half hour forecasts. Need more computer power and …

• Use more advanced Kalmen filter ( mountainous type).

Pessimistic idea

• Forget about surface wind speed forecast

• Don’t waste time on it.

Few available OBS stations in BC mountainous areaPacific data void also affects the surface wind speed forecast in BC

END

• Thanks to Henryk and George for making weather maps and meteograms from MC2 parallel runs