support to the nato nlw concept development and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Support to the NATO NLW
Concept Development and Experimentation Working Group
(SAS-094)
Alan Roland-Price SAS-094 [email protected] +44-118-909-0248
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NATO Science & Technology Organisation
2
STO
S & T
Committee
S & T
Board
CMRE CSO
6 x Technical Panels
(AVT, HFM, IST, SAS, SCI, SET)
1 x Specialist Group (NMSG)
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Outline
The rationale for Non-Lethal Weapons
Update on SAS-094’s progress supporting NLW Concept Development and Experimentation
– Purpose, Participation and Programme
– Activities
• Concept Analysis
• NLW Analysis
• Support Concept Development
• Assessment/Refinement Using Operational Experimentation
• Co-ordination with other NLW activities
Feedback from ISMOR 29
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NLW
NATO Definition: NLW are explicitly designed and developed to incapacitate or repel personnel, with a low probability of fatality or permanent injury, or to disable equipment, with minimal undesired damage or impact on the environment.
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NLW
NATO Definition: NLW are explicitly designed and developed to incapacitate or repel personnel, with a low probability of fatality or permanent injury, or to disable equipment, with minimal undesired damage or impact on the environment.
ie. Acoustic systems (flash-bangs, loud speaker arrays)
Chemical systems (tear gas, pepper sprays, irritants)
Electromagnetic (laser dazzlers, tasers, RF systems)
Mechanical/kinetic (blunt impact systems, nets)
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Rationale for NLW
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“We must balance our pursuit of the enemy with our efforts to minimize loss of
innocent civilian life, and with our obligation to protect our troops."
General David H. Petraeus, US Army Commander, International Security Assistance Force and Commander, US Forces Afghanistan 2011
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Isolate/Segregate
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“Every citizen of Afghanistan must know ISAF will continue to do all we can to reduce casualties that affect the Afghan civilian population."
General John R. Allen, US Marine Corps Commander, International Security Assistance Force and Commander, US Forces Afghanistan 2012
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Stopping Vehicles or Vessels
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Ability to seize the initiative Need for increased decision space/time
Act while determining intent
Additional options for escalation/de-escalation
Deny an area to increase engagement range & standoff
Delay approach and increase time to respond
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SAS-094 Purpose and Participation
Purpose: SAS-094 will provide analytical support for the development of
NATO and national NLW Concepts of Operations/Employment and
associated operational experimentation
Participants:
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
France
Germany
Netherlands
Norway
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
ACO, ACT, and
CMRE
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Programme
Phase 1 Through Mar 2013
Phase 2 Apr-Sep 2013
Phase 3 Oct 2013-Sep 2014
Phase 4 Oct-Dec 2014
Possible
CD&E Event
Assessment/Refinement
via Operational
Experimentation
Final
Deliverables
Support
Concept
Development
Concept Analysis
NLW Analysis
Workshop
Coordination with Other NATO and National Efforts
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Environment
Demographics
Natural Resources
Energy
Economics
Dimensions (1)
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Conflict and Security
Culture and Society
Science, Technology and Innovation
State, Non-State Actors
and Global Governance
Dimensions (2)
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Summary Trends and Regional Impacts
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Dimensions/ Challenges
Africa Americas Antarctic Arctic Asia Europe Middle East
Oceania
Environment P P P P P P P
Demographics P P P P P
Natural Resources P P P P P
Energy P P P P P
Economics P P P P
Conflict & Security P P P P
Culture & Society P P P P P
Science, Technology & Innovation P P P P P P
States, Non-state actors & global governance
P P P P P
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Scenarios
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• Considered all dimensions across most regions (did not look at Antarctic) and looked at:
NATO references including the NATO Task List, Multiple Futures Project, and SAS-078 Scenario List
National sources including CAN Arctic options, USMC EoF Mission Tasks, US Joint Vision, UK FCOC and HLOC papers
• Were developed directly from the challenges identified from the Futures work, resulting in a focus on:
Humanitarian assistance
Maintaining law & order
Protection of nationals and national interests including energy resources, rare minerals and fishing rights.
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Scenarios
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NLW Analysis Working Group
Tasks – Analyze NLW Usage and Operational Experience – Military and
law enforcement uses, NATO and national experience, lessons
learned, and the role of NLW in delivering effects
– Analyze current and potential NATO and national concepts to
identify NLW implications, opportunities, and linkages
– Assess Simulation and Analysis Tools: Identify appropriate
measures, compare NLW models to address relevance for intended
uses, identify caveats of use, assess the ability to support operational
experimentation
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Lessons from Ongoing Operations Challenges to Conventional War Paradigm
– Adversaries avoid overmatch by complicating engagements (operating amid the
populace) and using asymmetric means
– Avoiding collateral damage (especially civilian casualties) is paramount
Battle for the Narrative – Adversaries use of incidents (including false reports)
– Ability to influence local and international perceptions and support
Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS) – Shortage of non-lethal options cited. “Tools gap” between visual methods for assessing
intent and lethal force
– Recognized as a vulnerability that adversaries exploit
– Most CIVCAS incidents lacked any kind of enhanced warning
– Recommendation: Conduct a “deep dive” to identify non-lethal capabilities and options
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Sources: Draft report from Joint and Coalition Operational Analysis (JCOA) and
Civilian Casualty Study Update for ISAF: Quick Impact Recommendations, 26 September 2011
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Military Utility Operational Assessment:
Vehicle Checkpoint
Location: Ft Benning, GA, March 2012
US Army infantry squad manned a
Snap Vehicle Checkpoint
Assessments made with and without NLW
With NLW:
Soldiers had time and distance to safely assess threats,
determine intent, and decide whether to employ lethal force
Much less likely to cause CIVCAS deaths or injuries
(similar in magnitude to CIVCAS study results)
Increased mission effectiveness
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Military Utility Operational Assessment:
Foot Patrol
Location: Kaneohe Bay, HI, Aug 2012
US Marine Corps infantry squad on
patrol in instrumented Military
Operations in Urban Terrain (MOUT)
facility
Assessed asymmetric warfare in
crowded urban areas
With NLW:
Dramatically improved mission effectiveness, provided
Escalation of Force levels / capabilities
Much less likely to cause CIVCAS deaths or injuries
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Case Studies • Opposed Visit, Board, Search, Seizure (VBSS)
• Vehicle Traffic Control Point
• Establish and Secure a Perimeter
• Cordon and Search
• Crowd Control
• Entry Control Point (ECP)
• Convoy Security
• Urban Patrolling
• Clear Facilities
• Non-combatant Evacuation Operations (NEO)
• Hostage Rescue/ Tactical Recovery of Aircraft and Personnel (TRAP)
• Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief
• Securing Critical Infrastructure
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Summary of SAS-094 Activities
Major Activity Status Comment
Phase 1
Concept Analysis
NLW Analysis
Complete
Future Security Environment
Scenarios
Tools and methods of analysis
Lessons learned
Case studies
Phase 2
Support Concept
Development
Just started
Selection of concept(s) and identification
of most beneficial approach to test NLW
concepts, given likely constraints in time,
tools, models and facilities
Phase 3
Operational
Experimentation
Due to start Oct 13 – Oct 14
May be postponed to link with DAT 11
timeframes.
Tabletop and decision support exercises,
modelling & simulation, wargaming,
experimentation and trials.
Coordination Ongoing Close liaison with DAT 11 programme and
events
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Inputs
• Presentation
• Syndicate discussion on 2 scenarios (CP & CM) to provide operational context
• Discussion on issues relevant to NLW concept development and experimentation
Inputs and Offers from ISMOR 29
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Inputs and Offers from ISMOR 29
Offers
• Excellent dialogue
• Access to documents from The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) were incorporated into SAS-094’s NLW Analysis WG
• A number of offers for models or model-generated results: – PC-based model that could be useful for NLW concept experimentation – Close Combat Models
• Additional inputs – for ongoing Concept Development and for the planned Concept Experimentation phase – would be most welcome
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