support system for spatial vulnerability assessment
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Task 5 – Interplay between science, society and policy Spatial vulnerability assessment
Valutazione della vulnerabilità dei Comuni Trentini ai Cambiamenti Climatici
CLIMaticchangeimpactsonfutureAvailabilityofWAterREsourcesandhydro-geologicalrisks(CLIMAWARE)
DICAM-DipartimentodiIngegneriacivile,ambientaleemeccanica
-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Comp.1
Comp.2
11
1
2
3
3 32
2 3
3
3
1
3
33
3
3
3
1
1
3
3
2
2
3
3
21 1
21
1
2
1
2
2
22
3
1
3
2
2
2
1
22
3
12
1
3
3
1
2
2
1
22
1
3
321 1
2
2
3
3
1
1
233
11
32
3
2
2
1
3
2
21
1
1
3
2
12 1 1
1
3
1
3
1
11
2 3
2
3
1
2
3
2
1
1
11
2
33
1
3
331
1111
1
1
1
2
2
2
13
1
33
2
3
1
2
32
3
32
3
2
32
2
1
1
3
3
2
11
2
22
13
1
22
2
12
2
2
2
2
21
3
33
3 33
11
11 1
1
3
1
3
122
3
3 3
1
2
13
2
1
2 1
2
2 3
2
3
3
1
1
22
31
11
3
11
2
3
-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400
-200
-100
0100
200
300
400
giorni25
pr_inv_med_c
PhD Rocco Scolozzi, Prof. Davide Geneletti
![Page 2: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Spatial vulnerability assessment
1. Clusteranalysisforsocialsurvey2. IPCCframeworkanddefinitions3. ExamplesatEUlevel4. SensitivityanalysisformunicipalitiesofTrentoProvince5. Adaptationcapacityanalysis6. Sectorassessment(tobefurtherdeveloped)
![Page 3: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Cluster analysis for social survey
• Objective:tosupportstratificationofTrentoProvincesample• Maxdifferentiationamongtheclusters(max3-5groups)• Feasiblewithdataatmunicipallevel
➔Candidateclimatevariables:• variablesamongthemostrecognizableanddistinguishablebythepeople(withoutinstrumentation)
• interestingfortheirvariabilityinrecentperiods(1961-1990vs.198-2010).
CollaborationwithEmanuelaBozzini,Dep.ofSociologyandSocialResearch
![Page 4: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Cluster analysis for social survey
• Modelingandmapping• Modelling(forelevation)andinterpolationofpointclimatedataforperiods1961-1990and198-2010(byLaviniaLaiti&Co.)
• ExtractionbyLandUseandmunicipalitylayer• Integrationintabledataofmunicipalities
![Page 5: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Cluster analysis for social survey
-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Comp.1
Comp.2
11
1
2
3
3 32
2 3
3
3
1
3
33
3
3
3
1
1
3
3
2
2
3
3
21 1
21
1
2
1
2
2
22
3
1
3
2
2
2
1
22
3
12
1
3
3
1
2
2
1
22
1
3
321 1
2
2
3
3
1
1
233
11
32
3
2
2
1
3
2
21
1
1
3
2
12 1 1
1
3
1
3
1
11
2 3
2
3
1
2
3
2
1
1
11
2
33
1
3
331
1
111
1
1
1
2
2
2
13
1
33
2
3
1
2
32
3
32
3
2
32
2
1
1
3
3
2
11
2
22
13
1
22
2
12
2
2
2
2
21
3
33
3 33
1
1
11 1
1
3
1
3
122
3
3 3
1
2
13
2
1
2 1
2
2 3
2
3
3
1
1
22
31
11
3
11
2
3
-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400
-200
-100
0100
200
300
400
giorni25
pr_inv_med_c
ClusterDaysC°>25
(inareeresidenziali)
averagemonthlyprecipitation(Dec-Jan-Feb)
Population2001 Municipalities
1 62,1 154,3 288’824 802 36,7 125,0 78’541 723 51,1 185,0 109’652 71
![Page 6: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
IPCC framework and definitions
![Page 7: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
IPCC framework and definitions
• Exposure:Thenatureanddegreetowhichasystemisexposedtosignificantclimaticvariations.
• Sensitivity:Thedegreetowhichasystemisaffected,eitheradverselyorbeneficially,byclimaterelatedstimuli.
• Adaptivecapacity:theabilityofanaturalorhumansystemtoadjusttopotentialdamage,totakeadvantageofopportunities,ortocopewiththeconsequences.
• Vulnerability:Thedegreetowhichasystemissusceptibleto,orunabletocopewith,adverseeffectsofclimatechange.Vulnerabilityisafunctionofthecharacter,magnitude,andrateofclimatevariationtowhichasystemisexposed,itssensitivity,anditsadaptivecapacity.
http://climatechange.lta.org
![Page 8: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Prepare for Vulnerability
Planningforvulnerabilitytoclimatechangegenerallyinvolvesthreesteps:1. Determinewhichresourcesarevulnerabletochangingconditions.By
identifyingthemostvulnerableresources,weareabletoprioritizeourconservationactions.Thevulnerabilityofaresourceisdeterminedbyexposure,sensitivity,andtheabilitytoadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange.
2. Determinewhythoseresourcesarevulnerable.Itisnotenoughtoknowthataparticularresourceisvulnerable.Wealsomustknowwhytheresourceisvulnerable.Thisallowsustochooseconservationactionsthataremostlikelytoreducethethreatsposedbyclimatechange.
3. Usethisinformationtoguideactionsthatwillreducevulnerability,anddevelopstrategicadaptationstrategies,fostercollaborationatdifferentscales
![Page 9: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Example: ESPON Climate
ESPON2013Programme,partlyfinancedbytheEuropeanRegionalDevelopmentFund
Climate Change and Territorial Effects onRegions and Local Economies
www.espon.eu
ESPON - European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion
![Page 10: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Changeofannualmeantemperature
Decreaseofnumberoffrostdays
Changeofnumberofsummerdays
Changeofmeanwinterprecipitation
Changeofmeansummerprecipitation
Changeofnumberofheavyrainfalldays
Changeofannualmeanevaporation
Changeofnumberofdayswithsnowcover
Changeinoccurrenceofriverflooding
Changeofmeansealevel
ExposureExample: ESPON Climate
(changes1961-1990and2071-2100*)
*Using the IPCC climate scenario A1B
![Page 11: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Examples from ESPONPhysical sensitivity• Settlements sensitive to flash floods• Roads and railways sensitive to flash floods• Settlements sensitive to river flooding• Roads and railways sensitive to river flooding• Airports and harbours sensitive to river flooding• Settlements sensitive to coastal flooding• Roads and railways sensitive to coastal flooding• Airports and harbours sensitive to coastal flooding
![Page 12: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Examples from ESPON
Environmental sensitivity• Forests sensitive to forest fires• Protected natural areas • Areas prone to soil erosion • Soil organic carbon
![Page 13: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Examples from ESPONEconomic sensitivityAgriculture sensitive to water availabilityForestry sensitive to water availabilitySummer tourism sensitive to summer temperaturesWinter tourism sensitive to snow cover changesEnergy demand sensitive to summer heatEnergy demand sensitive to winter frostEnergy supply sensitive to changing river water levels
![Page 14: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Examples from ESPON
Social sensitivityPopulation sensitive to summer heatPopulation sensitive to coastal floodingPopulation sensitive to river floodingPopulation sensitive to flash floods
![Page 15: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Examples from ESPON
Cultural sensitivityUNESCO Cultural World Heritage Sites sensitive to river floodingUNESCO Cultural World Heritage Sites sensitive to coastal floodingMuseums sensitive to river floodingMuseums sensitive to sea level rise
![Page 16: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Task 5 – Interplay between science, society and policy
![Page 17: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Climatestimuli Target IndicatorUnitofmeaure
Temperaturestress Population
Populationover65yearold N°
Days>25C° N°
Waterstress
Tourism Tourismservicespersonnel N°
Agriculture Personnel N°
Population Totalprecipitation m3
Sensitivity to climate change at municipal level
![Page 18: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Climatestimuli Target Indicator Unitàdimisura
Waterstress
1. CapacitàdiassorbireeventualioccupatinelturismoincrisiperCC
Incidenzaaddettiaiservizialberghieriecomplementarisutotaleaddetti(eccetto
agricoltura)%
1. CapacitàdiassorbireeventualioccupatiinagricolturaincrisiperCC
Incidenzadeglioccupatiinagricoltura %
Temperaturestress1. Capacitàdigestire
popolazionepiùesposta Incidenzadellapopolazionedi65annieoltre %
Trust(istitutions) 1. Propensioneaseguireindicazionidiemergenza
Questionario:IncasodiordinedievacuazionedellaProtezioneCivilesarebbedisponibilealasciarelasuaabitazione
perundeterminatotempo?(risposta:scala1-5,es.no-certamente)
Socialnetwork 1. Capacitàditrovareunasistemazione-rifugio
Questionario:Incasodiemergenzasarebbeingradoditrovareunasistemazionetemporanea(peralcunigiorni)perleielasuafamigliain24ore,adesempiopressoparentioamici?Risposta:da1-conestremadifficoltàa5-senzaproblemi
Adaptive capacity at municipal level
![Page 19: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Task 5 – Interplay between science, society and policy
![Page 20: Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022030211/58a20e491a28ab40098b6435/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Climatestimuli Target Indicator Definition u.m.
Esposizionestressidrico
Agriculture
GAP1domanda/offerta
Differenzatrabisognototaleedisponibilitàlordaattuale
m3
GAP1bdomanda/offertaDifferenzatrabisognototalescenarioedisponibilitàlordascenario m3
Tourism
GAP2domanda/offerta
Differenzatrabisognototaleedisponibilitàlordaattuale
m3
GAP2bdomanda/offerta
Differenzatrabisognototalescenarioedisponibilitàlordascenario
m3
Esposizionerischioalluvione
Industry
ESP1Areeproduttiveinfrastrutture Areeattualiattualmentearischio ha
ESP1bAreeproduttiveinfrastrutture
Areescenarioarischioscenario(inmancanza,rischioattuale) ha
Population
ESP2Areeresidenziali
Areeattualiattualmentearischio ha
ESP2bAreeresidenziali
Areescenarioarischioscenario(inmancanza,rischioattuale)
ha
Exposure at municipal level