supplement to chapter nineteen irwin/mcgraw-hill © the mcgraw-hill companies, inc., 1999 simulation...
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![Page 1: SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 SIMULATION 19S-1 Chapter 19 Supplement Simulation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022072016/56649ee55503460f94bf3edf/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999
SIMULATION
19S-1
Chapter 19 Supplement
Simulation
![Page 2: SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 SIMULATION 19S-1 Chapter 19 Supplement Simulation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022072016/56649ee55503460f94bf3edf/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999
SIMULATION
19S-2
SimulationSimulation: a descriptive technique that enables a decision maker to evaluate the behavior of a model under various conditions.
•Simulation models complex situations
•Models are simple to use and understand
•Models can play “what if” experiments
•Extensive software packages available
![Page 3: SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 SIMULATION 19S-1 Chapter 19 Supplement Simulation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022072016/56649ee55503460f94bf3edf/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999
SIMULATION
19S-3
Simulation Process
• Identify the problem• Develop the simulation model• Test the model• Develop the experiments• Run the simulation and evaluate results• Repeat until results are satisfactory
![Page 4: SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 SIMULATION 19S-1 Chapter 19 Supplement Simulation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022072016/56649ee55503460f94bf3edf/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999
SIMULATION
19S-4
Monte Carlo SimulationMonte Carlo method: Probabilistic simulation technique used when a process has a random component
•Identify a probability distribution
•Setup intervals of random numbers to match probability distribution
•Obtain the random numbers
•Interpret the results
![Page 5: SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 SIMULATION 19S-1 Chapter 19 Supplement Simulation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022072016/56649ee55503460f94bf3edf/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999
SIMULATION
19S-5
Simulating Distributions• Poisson
– Mean of distribution is required
• Normal– Need to know the mean and standard
deviation
Simulatedvalue
Mean Randomnumber
Standarddeviation
+ X=
![Page 6: SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 SIMULATION 19S-1 Chapter 19 Supplement Simulation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022072016/56649ee55503460f94bf3edf/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999
SIMULATION
19S-6
Uniform Distribution
a b0 x
F(x)
Simulatedvalue
a + (b - a)(Random number as a percentage)=
Figure 19S-1
![Page 7: SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 SIMULATION 19S-1 Chapter 19 Supplement Simulation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022072016/56649ee55503460f94bf3edf/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999
SIMULATION
19S-7
Negative Exponential Distribution
F(t)
0 T t
P t T RN( ) .
Figure 19S-2
![Page 8: SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 SIMULATION 19S-1 Chapter 19 Supplement Simulation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022072016/56649ee55503460f94bf3edf/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999
SIMULATION
19S-8
Advantages of Simulation
• Solves problems that are difficult or impossible to solve mathematically
• Allows experimentation without risk to actual system
• Compresses time to show long-term effects
• Serves as training tool for decision makers
![Page 9: SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN Irwin/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 SIMULATION 19S-1 Chapter 19 Supplement Simulation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022072016/56649ee55503460f94bf3edf/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER NINETEEN
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999
SIMULATION
19S-9
Limitations of Simulation
• Does not produce optimum solution
• Model development may be difficult
• Computer run time may be substantial
• Monte Carlo simulation only applicable to random systems