Sun – Solar System ConnectionsFoundation Roadmap

Status Report

March 15 2005

J. Todd Hoeksema & Team

SSSC Foundation Roadmap

The bottom line• Our society can no longer function efficiently

without space weather understanding• Human beings can not work safely and

effectively outside low Earth orbit without space weather forecasts

• Predictive space weather capability requires basic knowledge we do not have

Earth-Space Activities... disrupted by solar and geomagnetic events Satellite operations Navigation Space Shuttle and Space Station activities High-altitude polar flights Electric power distribution Long-line telephone communication HF radio communication Pipeline operations Geophysical explorationSatellite reliabilityGoing to Moon or Mars

A few Space Weather Effects

SSSC Foundation RoadmapSpace Weather Effects

SSSC Foundation RoadmapRadiation Effects

• Needs to be developed

Oct/Nov 2003 Superstorms

Disturbed Upper Atmosphere

Space Storms at the Outer Planets

Solar System Blast Wave

Disturbed Mars-Space & Atmospheric Loss

Dangerous Radiation

Space Storms at Earth

LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE 2003 SUPERSTORMS: A fleet of earth-orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft with distinctly different missions joined together in late October 2003 as one “great observatory” to provide a first-ever view of a space weather front moving through the solar system from its source on the sun’s surface to space storms triggered at Earth, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn and finally to its encounter with the outer boundary of the heliosphere many months later. This front was created by a series of strong solar eruptive events from three active regions on the Sun. Surprises lie in the inhomogeneity of the front propagation and of the energetic solar particles even at locations in close proximity; thus highlighting the importance of global propagation, energization and expansion in local space weather conditions and the difficulties in predicting such conditions for future explorers.

The space weather front elicited different responses from planets protected with a magnetosphere and those without protection. At Mars,in the absence of a strong global magnetic field, high solar wind dynamic pressure pushed in the solar wind - ionosphere boundary to low altitudes allowing…

SSSC FRMHalloween 2003

SSSC Foundation RoadmapEnabling Exploration

• Spacecraft Design Requirements• Space Operations information• Solar System – wide space weather prediction

SSSC Foundation RoadmapSpace Weather Prediction

SSSC Foundation RoadmapImportant Science

• Reconnection• Particle Acceleration• Magnetic Dynamo• Global Change

SSSC Foundation RoadmapEnabling Exploration

• Spacecraft Design Requirements

• Space Operations information

• Solar System – wide space weather prediction

SSSC Foundation RoadmapExciting Science & Exploration

• Visit the solar corona• Probe the interstellar medium• Investigate planetary habitability

SSSC Foundation RoadmapScience in the Sweet Spot

Science that is Vital, Compelling & Urgent

SSSC Foundation RoadmapObjectives

SSSC Science & Exploration Objective F:

Opening the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction

Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium.

SSSC Science & Exploration Objective H:

Understanding the Nature of Our Home in Space

Understand how society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by the variable space environment.

SSSC Science & Exploration Objective J:

Safeguarding Our Outbound Journey

Maximize the productivity and safety of human and robotic explorers by developing predictive capability for the extreme and dynamic conditions in space.

SSSC Foundation RoadmapOpening the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction

SSSC Science & Exploration Objective FOpening the Frontier to Space Environment PredictionUnderstand the fundamental physical processes of the space

environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium.

• F.1 Understand magnetic reconnection as revealed in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and geospace storms.

• F.2 Understand the plasma processes that accelerate and transport particles

• F.3 Understand How Nonlinear Interactions Transfer Energy and Momentum Within Planetary Upper Atmospheres.

• F.4 Determine how solar and planetary magnetic dynamos are created and why they vary.

• F.5 Understand the role of cross-scale coupling in creating plasma boundaries and the significance of boundaries in controlling physical processes.

SSSC Foundation RoadmapUnderstanding the Nature of our Home in Space

SSSC Science & Exploration Objective HUnderstanding the Nature of Our Home in SpaceUnderstand how society, technological systems, and the habitability

of planets are affected by the variable space environment.

• H.1 Understand the causes and subsequent evolution of solar activity that affects Earth’s space climate and environment

• H.2 Determine changes in the Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and upper atmosphere to enable specification, prediction, and mitigation of their effects

• H.3 Understanding the role of the Sun as an energy source to the Earth’s atmosphere, and in particular the role of solar variability in driving change.

• H.4 Apply our understanding of space plasma physics to the role of stellar activity and magnetic shielding in planetary system evolution and habitability

SSSC Foundation RoadmapSafeguarding Our Outbound Journey

SSSC Science & Exploration Objective JSafeguarding Our Outbound JourneyMaximize the productivity and safety of human and robotic explorers by

developing predictive capability for the extreme and dynamic conditions in space.

• J.1 Characterize the variability, extremes, and boundary conditions of the space environments that will be encountered by human and robotic explorers.

• J.2 Develop the capability to predict the origin and onset of solar activity and disturbances associated with potentially hazardous space weather events..

• J.3 Develop the capability to predict the propagation and evolution of solar disturbances (including shocks, and the acceleration and transport of energetic particles from solar, interplanetary, and galactic sources) to enable safe travel for human and robotic explorers.

• J.4 Understand and characterize the space weather effects on and within planetary environments to minimize risk in exploration activities.

SSSC Foundation RoadmapA New Science

SSSC Foundation RoadmapPredictive Requirements

• Geo- & planetary space storms• X-rays/EUV events• Energetic particle events• CME’s & heliospheric storms• Cosmic ray modulation• Irradiance variations

SSSC Foundation RoadmapPriorities & Implementation

• NOT YET COMPLETED

SSSC Foundation RoadmapDiscovery Schedule

SSSC Foundation RoadmapStrategic Elements

Current thinking:– Implement the program currently underway– Use strategic lines to address key problems– Emphasize need for the Explorer & LCAS programs– Evolve the SSSC Great Observatory– Consider new initiatives for new objectives– Develop Analysis, Modeling & Forecast Tools– Focus Technology development– Maintain Human Resources

SSSC - Exploration

• Exploration encompasses both new locations and new understanding

• Scientific and Technical progress go hand in hand

• SSSC already provides knowledge essential for safe and productive “Exploration”

• SSSC already provides transformational scientific knowledge of the universe

SSSC Foundation RoadmapOur Great Observatory

• Missions in the extended operations become something new - part of a “Great Observatory” that is more than the sum of its parts

• The widely distributed fleet of SSSC spacecraft, coupled with data analysis and modeling, provide a remarkable view of solar system events

• The SSSC great observatory is constantly being renewed, upgraded, and refocused

• The great observatory addresses all three SSSC objectives

SSSC Foundation RoadmapExplorers, STP, LWS

The RM Team has only begun to discuss implementation. Current SSSC programs will certainly be elements of the continued program.

• EXPLORER’s are crucial to SSSC advance; they augment the strategic lines. Competitive selection of the most exciting current science. Provides decision points for pathways.

• STP’s address strategic objectives that absolutely require a larger investment to successfully address fundamental questions required for progress in broader areas.

• LWS addresses questions of direct relevance to life and society. LWS missions focus on understanding the complex systems, building on STP results. LWS missions may lead to operational missions.

SSSC Foundation RoadmapInfrastructure

• Productivity depends on a healthy science community infrastructure

• SSSC relies on SR&T, GI, Theory, LWS TRT to analyze data and lead future developments

• Computing, Modeling, Assimilation, and Visualization• Combining data from multiple sources – Virtual

Observatories• Interpretation of sparse measurements• Collaboration with other agencies

SSSC Foundation RoadmapLow Cost Access to Space

• Some exciting SSSC science can only be done in the LCAS program

• New opportunities can be realized soon

• Instrument development, reduction of program risk are important benefits

• Rapid response to evolving needs

• Training of future observers, PI’s, engineers

SSSC Foundation RoadmapPartnerships

Multiple partnerships exist at various levels

• International Living With a Star (ILWS)

• Exploration missions and support of VSE

• Explorers, New Millennium, Technology

• Planetary missions – Mars, planets, comets, moons, etc.

• Astrophysics – stars, ISM, planetary systems

• Climate variability, weather effects, modeling, visualization

• Europe, Canada, Japan, Russia

• DOE, DOD, NOAA, NSF

SSSC Foundation RoadmapScience Achievements

• Helioseismology – Solar Far Side, Sunspots, Dynamo

• Coronal Loop Dynamics• CME Origin, Evolution

and Propagation• Flare energy release• Solar Particle

Acceleration• Particle Acceleration in

the Heliosphere

• Heliospheric Boundary Encounters

• Interstellar Particle Observations

• Magnetic Reconnection• Particle Acceleration in

the Magnetosphere• Parallel Electric Fields in

the Auroral Region• ENA Imaging of trapped

particles – Earth & Saturn

SSSC Foundation RoadmapTechnology

• Enabling high delta-V propulsion • Enabling the development of compact

low-cost spacecraft• Enabling the visualization, analysis and

modeling of solar system plasmas• Enabling the development of the next

generation of SSSC instrumentation• Enabling the return of large data sets

from throughout the solar system

SSSC Foundation RoadmapEducation & Public Outreach

• Many successful efforts currently underway

• Evolving to more uniform NASA format

• SSSC effort emphasizes unique content

• Coordinate formal and informal programs

• Integrate SESD content into curriculum

• Need more centralized outreach to educational system

SSSC Foundation RoadmapExternal Factors

Implementation has been left for future meetings, but important external factors that limit our programs are already apparent.

•Access to affordable launch capability of appropriate size

•Public Trust and Risk Tolerance at NASA

•National Security & Working with International Partners

SSSC Foundation Roadmap

The bottom line• Our society can no longer function efficiently

without space weather understanding• Human beings can not work safely and

effectively outside low Earth orbit without space weather forecasts

• Predictive space weather capability requires basic knowledge we do not have

SSSC – Backup Charts

• Backup Charts

SSSC Foundation Roadmap Information

Important documents for the RM effort are available at several web sites.

•http://sec.gsfc.nasa.gov/roadmap for general information

•http://sun.stanford.edu/roadmap for working documents

Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems.

NASA Strategic Objective #15

Sun – Solar System Connections Science & Exploration Objectives

• Understand the fundamental physical processes important in space – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium.

• Maximize productivity and safety of human and robotic explorers by developing predictive capability for the extreme and dynamic conditions in space.

• Understand how society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by the variable space environment.

Explore the Sun-Earth system to

understand the Sun and its effects

on Earth, the solar system,

and the space environmental

conditions that will be experienced

by human explorers, and

demonstrate technologies that can

improve future operational

systems.

SSSC Foundation RoadmapActivities

Schedule:• Roadmap kickoff with SECAS, approach, guidelines Mar. 10-11, 2004• Roadmap plans, schedule reviewed at HQ/OSS Apr. 2004• SECAS, legacy RM strategy, charge to committee Jul. 26-27, 04• NRC draft report - update to decadal survey Sep, 2004• Solar Sail technology workshop Sep. 28-29, 2004• Roadmap team meeting #1 Oct. 5-6, 2004• Roadmap activity review at SECAS Nov. 3-5, 2004• Community-led imaging technology workshop Nov. 9-10, 2004• Community-wide legacy roadmap workshop Nov. 16-17, 2004• Roadmap team meeting #2 Nov. 18-19, 2004• Roadmap team meeting #3 Jan. 19-21, 2005• Roadmap team meeting #4 Mar. 17-18, 2005

SSSC – Changes from 20022003 Understand the Sun, helio-

sphere, and planetary environments as a single connected system.

• Understand the changing flow of energy and matter through-out the Sun, heliosphere, and planetary environments.

• Explore the fundamental physical processes of space plasma systems.

• Define the origins and societal impacts of variability in the Sun-Earth connection.

2005• Understand the fundamental

physical processes important in space – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium.

• Maximize productivity and safety of human and robotic explorers by developing predictive capability for the extreme and dynamic conditions in space.

• Understand how society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by the variable space environment.

Enabling Capabilities:• Model Data Assimilation• Radiation tolerance• Solar Sails• Solar Nadir Viewing• Spacecraft clusters• Constellations• High Q data compression

Upstream solar wind conditions for Earth

Roadmap 10 Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on Earth, the solar system, and the space environ-mental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems.

Theoretical Basis: Processes: Gas dynamics; Magnetohydrodynamics: Radiative transfer; Electrodynamics; Plasma physics; Ion-Neutral chemistry; Dusty-plasmas; Multi-fluid magnetodynamics; Fluid-particle hybrid dynamics; Nonlinear Dynamics - Chaos; Methods: Analysis; Modeling; Simulation; Data Assimilation; Parallel computing; Helioseismology and the

Solar interior

Solar dynamo and active region flaring observations

Solar Corona and CME observations

Solar wind structures and dynamics

The Heliospheric Boundary and Interstellar interaction

Missions I:

…

Missions II:

…

Missions III:

…

Focus Areas I• Predict geospace weather• Anticipate & mitigate geospace effects• Understand atmospheric effects and impacts• Apply studies to planetary evolution and habitability

Focus Areas III• Find causes of solar storms• Understand particle acceleration in space• Determine effects of atmospheric energy input • Understand magnetodynamos

Focus Areas II• Characterize heliospheric and planetary environments• Predict heliospheric weather• Predict radiation hazards• Anticipate planetary effects

Measurements: Parameters: Gas; Neutral atoms; Plasma; Energetic particles; Electric Field; Magnetic Field; Sound, EM WavesMethods: Synoptic direct sensing; Remote sensing; Imaging; Spectroscopy; Polarization; Interferometry; Radio Sounding

Maximize productivity and safety of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space.

Understand how our society, its technological systems, and the general habitability of planets are affected by the variable space environment.

Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets and beyond to the interstellar medium.

Upstream Solar wind conditions for inner planets

Nonlinear dynamics of energy release by magnetotails

The polar heliosphere and cosmic ray propagation

TBD Investigation

Martian atmospheric Response to space weatherAcceleration of the Solar wind

Solar energetic particle acceleration and transport

Structure of CMEs in the heliosphere

Non-Earth-like magnetospheres

Atmospheric composition, winds and temperature

Ionospheric composition winds and temperature

Inner magnetosphere and radiation belt dynamics

Solar wind coupling at the magnetospheric boundary

Reconnection microphysics control of energy transfer

Orbit Insertion, Descent and Landing at Mars

Predict the neutral density and wind structures for successful aerocapture, descent and landing

Need

Empirical models of

Mars atmospheric

structure

Archival and real-time measurements of density,

temperature, winds, surface to 250 km

Enabling Capabilities & MeasurementsFirst principles data-

assimilating models for predicting atmospheric

structure

Supporting Missions

Basic UnderstandingNon-LTE radiative transfer

Dust, aerosol evolution and characteristics

Wave-wave interactions at all scales

Wave-turbulence interactions

Surface interactions

Parameterizations of turbulence and

gravity wave effects in GCMs

Wave-mean flowinteractions

Neutral instabilities

Example

Flowdown

Requirements