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SUMMARY REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL MARKET & PROGRAMMING

FOR THE FUTURIST THEATRE IN SCARBOROUGH

[Personal sensitive information redacted]

Prepared for Scarborough Borough Council by Lynne Burton and Robert Cogo-Fawcett.

May 2010

SUMMARY REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL MARKET & PROGRAMMING FOR THE FUTURIST THEATRE IN SCARBOROUGH Prepared for Scarborough Borough Council by Lynne Burton and Robert Cogo-Fawcett.

CONTENTS Page 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. PROGRAMMING 2 2.1 The options identified in previous reports for retaining the Futurist

and its programme 2 2.2 Futurist situational snapshot 3 2.3 National programming context 4 2.4 Economics of large-scale receiving houses, producer output and producers 5 2.5 The two main regional theatre operators 7 2.6 The large-scale genre landscape 7 2.7 Programming comparators and subsidy 11 2.8 Local programming considerations and the impact of recent developments 13

3. MARKET POTENTIAL 17 3.1 Current theatre and entertainments provision and attendance in Scarborough 17 3.2 Factors affecting attendances: Population; competition; tourism 19 3.3 The national benchmarks 22 3.4 Specific comparators 22 3.5 Market potential projections for the Futurist in previous reports 24 3.6 Summary of the market potential projections 34 3.7 The importance of marketing 35

4. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 37 4.1 Programming potential 37 4.2 Market potential 39 4.3 Overall conclusions 41

APPENDICES Appendix 1 Futurist current programme 43 Appendix 2 Comparative tables of theatres: Table A Some UK receiving theatres under 1500 seats 44 Table B Some UK receiving theatres over 1500 seats 45 Appendix 3 ABL’s financial model 46 Appendix 4 List of those consulted 47

_______________________________________________________________________________________________ Summary Report on the Potential Market & Programming for the Futurist Theatre.

Prepared by Lynne Burton and Robert Cogo-Fawcett for Scarborough Borough Council, May 2010 1

SUMMARY REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL MARKET & PROGRAMMING FOR THE FUTURIST THEATRE IN SCARBOROUGH Prepared for Scarborough Borough Council by Lynne Burton and Robert Cogo-Fawcett.

1. INTRODUCTION Scarborough Borough Council (SBC) has appointed Lynne Burton, together with colleague Robert

Cogo-Fawcett, to review and comment upon previous documentation, and to provide an update

summary in relation to the future market potential for the Futurist Theatre in the current market

conditions and in the light of recent developments in entertainments provision within the town. Both

are specialist consultants within the theatre and entertainments industry. Lynne Burton also worked

with TEAM on the Theatre and Entertainments Review for the Spa in 2003.

This report is one of several commissioned to inform the findings and recommendations of the

Futurist Task Group which will be submitted to the Corporate Strategy Overview and Scrutiny

Committee (CSOSC).

The tasks for this report were:

• To read and review 12 background papers plus other documentation in relation to the Spa

Complex and the Open Air Theatre and to comment on, in particular, a Theatre and Cinema

Review prepared by ABL Cultural Consulting in 2004, which provided the basis for some

conclusions contained within later reports about the potential development of the Futurist

Theatre and its site;

• To ‘refresh’ previously documented findings;

• To discuss findings with members of the Task Group and present a final report.

In order to complete these tasks the consultants have:

• examined the required documentation in some depth and incorporated references and

comments throughout the narrative;

• conducted desk research where relevant;

• consulted with a range of key players within the arts and entertainments industry; talked to

representatives of comparable venues in the UK and to some local and regional

representatives. A notable omission is the current operator of the Futurist Theatre, Barrie

Stead, who did not wish to be consulted on this occasion.

The consultants considered that market potential can only be assessed in the light of the potential

programming which might be available to the Futurist and, therefore, have also explored in some

depth the current national situation with regard to availability of product and the financial

considerations of producers and promoters.

The views expressed in this report are presented in good faith and to the best of our knowledge the information reported here is accurate. We cannot accept responsibility for any inaccuracies in information from third party sources.



2. PROGRAMMING

2.1 The options identified in previous reports for retaining the Futurist and its programme. This section of the present report refers principally to programming. It concentrates therefore on the

three reports which contain future options for the existence of the Futurist affecting programme.

These are:

• ABL Cultural Consulting : Theatre and Cinema Review 2004 (“ABL”)

• White Young Green: Commercial Viability and Masterplan Feasibility Study 2005 (“WYG”)

• Gleeds: Interim Report on Theatre Size Assessment, Initial Market Assessments, Indicative

Feasibility Studies and Cost Assessments 2008 (“Gleeds”).

Reference is also made to the Drivers Jonas/Audiences Yorkshire/Culver-Dodds report on

Scarborough South Bay & Spa, Redevelopment Business Case 2008 (“DJ:Spa”).

As their titles make clear each report has a different purpose. The options, however, contained in

WYG and Gleeds are mainly based on one of the two alternatives proposed in ABL with some

variations either resulting from discussion from the Council or as a result of their own findings.

ABL

ABL’s report stated that their Option 1:“retains the current Futurist auditorium and significantly

adapts and improves services and facilities around it to provide: enlarged stage house and wings;

better back stage facilities and get in access; large modern front of house, possibly shared with

cinema above; more comfortable seating and therefore fewer seats; removable seating to the stalls

for greater flexibility”.

The narrative describing this option suggested that the refurbished Theatre would seat 1800 (with

additional capacity of 200 when stalls standing), house 150 live events per year generating an

audience of 109,000 (plus 25 Club Nights with a further 35,000) as well as 37 hired events. A new

multiplex cinema would be created elsewhere on the site as would other ancillary elements to the

refurbishment including amongst others a hotel, parking and residential. It also suggested that the

refurbishment could “cost the Council in excess of £20M” and assessed ongoing subsidy costs of

£266,000 per annum1.

WYG

WYG analysed residual land values for each of four options. The first three of these are of

relevance to live entertainment programming:

1A: A partial/minimal refurbishment making the current building watertight and weatherproof,

decorating and ensuring it meets DDA requirements.

1B. A complete refurbishment along the lines of ABL’s Option 1 above.

2. A total redevelopment to incorporate mixed usage and an auditorium for cinema or theatre of

1000 seats.

3. A commercially viable scheme excluding any auditorium suggesting that this could unlock up to

£3M for the provision of a theatre elsewhere.

Their assessment suggested increasing levels of cost for options 1A, 1B and 2, concluding that:

“The provision of theatre facilities requires a considerable subsidy and/or investment as shown by

the negative residual land values”.

Gleeds

Gleeds’ report attempted to establish the ideal size of auditorium in respect of market demand,

producer attraction and the size and genre of productions available. Their conclusion was that the

1 A brief analysis of ABL’s financial model is provided at Appendix 4



optimal size would be one seating between 1200 and 1500. Based on this they developed four

options which were:

1. Refurbishment of the existing Futurist and Mermaid buildings with no changes to the present

auditorium or back of house arrangements.

2. Refurbishing the Futurist including its back stage and incorporating a residential and office

development on the Mermaid site.

3. The provision of a new theatre within a mixed usage development.

4. The provision of a new theatre in a mixed development with a greater emphasis on entertainment

users.

Potential programme

None of the three reports discuss the Theatre’s potential programme in any depth. Yet no

assessment of any refurbishment of the existing theatre or of any rebuild can be made without a

clear idea of the theatrical purposes the renewed theatre might serve. Whilst the ABL report

provides an assessment of programme demand, it is not detailed. WYP is silent on the matter and

Gleeds though it contains a producer survey to seek to establish producer requirements in particular

for the ideal-sized theatre contains no description of programming but concludes instead that

“the theatre and theatre promotion industry is impenetrable to a large degree.”

ABL’s programme model is entirely generic and number-based and assumes the ready availability

of the quantum of live product it suggests the theatre could house. Furthermore without a detailed

indicative programme suggesting what might attract such numbers to actually attend, the catchment

figures and assumptions of public demand in the ABL report (as well as in the later DJ:SPA report)

are at best splendid academic exercises of attendance.

Theatre attendance is organic in its behaviour. It responds and is nurtured by programme. Without a

more detailed appreciation of programming and the relationship between venue management and

producer/promoter no real understanding can be gained of how any future option for the Futurist

might or might not work.

2.2 Futurist situational snapshot

Size

The Futurist, the United Kingdom’s fifth largest provincial receiving theatre with 2,150 seats

currently presents a mixed programme of live entertainment complemented by up to 60 cinema

screenings per month.

Current programming

In the six months from March 29th 2010, 44 live performances are presently scheduled. These

consist of 20 music concerts mainly of light popular music of the last forty years, 15 comedy

evenings, 11 of which are by two principal acts (Billy Pearce and the Chuckle Brothers); 2 children’s

shows, 2 variety evenings, 2 dance performances and 3 evenings by local amateur artists.2This is a

small programme of narrow cultural appeal and is based almost entirely on one-night attractions. It

is difficult to imagine that it fulfils any of the range of cultural, economic and development policies of

the various authorities and agencies as summarised in ABL. While it may well plug a number of

gaps in the overall pattern of Scarborough’s entertainment provision it discharges no real

educational role or function.

Programme funding deficit

This is not to be critical of the Futurist’s current management. Since the Theatre was described in

2004 in the ABL report, it has been maintained by the Council on a “mend and repair” basis and has

2 The full 6 month programme is at Appendix 1



had a level of subsidy provided for its current management which can scarcely cover the overhead

and administrative costs let alone be applied to the programme. This is a serious deficit particularly

given ABL’s key statement that

“Investment in programme is just as important as investment in capital infrastructure”.

An attractive programme of appeal to a broad audience needs investment, particularly to kick-start

a theatre which has been dormant or where the programme has run down over a number of years.

The last fifteen years of negligible investment, if they have not seriously damaged the loyalty local

people feel towards the Theatre, then their faith in the programme and their consequent willingness

to attend will have been gravely impaired.

Physical inhibitions on programming

Added to inadequate programme investment, the Theatre has a number of physical peculiarities

many of which are referred to in all three reports but which bear repetition here if only to emphasise

how they combine to place severe restrictions on programme planning. They include:

• an auditorium lacking in intimacy and which when only partially occupied does little to

promote the participative entertainment experience;

• a stage which is comparatively small in relation to the auditorium;

• negligible wing space;

• no back stage get-in for scenery, costumes and equipment;

• a pit which seats only 13 players.

The implications of these restrictions include:

• the auditorium is considered by drama producers to be too large for the vast majority of

drama productions (this finding is confirmed in Gleeds Appendix 1);

• virtually no possibility of trucking. (Scenery for large-scale productions has to be either

“flown” from the fly house above the stage or “trucked” on from the wings or a combination

of both.) Effectively this restriction precludes many lyric touring productions from visiting the

theatre;

• scenery cannot be stored in the wings. Wingspace is often essential to the physical

characteristics of ballet and dance performances;

• scenery, props, costumes and equipment have to be brought through the auditorium;

• the size of the orchestra pit is too small for any serious lyric work with a major orchestral

component.

Any permutation of these factors alone renders the current stage house unfit for a whole range of

live stage shows.

2.3 National programming context

Overview of National circuits

Receiving theatres cannot exist in isolation. They derive their productions from a number of sources

and exist on a number of different circuits. Belonging to one or more of these circuits identifies a

theatre as a national touring venue, a member of an informal group which producers and tour

bookers reference in order to put tours together. An understanding of producers and promoters

motives for touring is critical to defining what possibilities might exist for the Futurist’s programme

and help to define any new configuration.

Futurist league status

An appreciation of how the Theatre is viewed on a national platform can help to demonstrate its

contextual fit. Tables A & B in Appendix 2 taken together show where the Futurist sits in the UK

family of receiving theatres. This gives rise to three comments:

• Although its seating capacity places the Futurist high on the list, its stage dimensions (as

Table B indicates) make it a somewhat unusual house in the realm of large scale theatres.

Its early history as a cinema may help to explain the relationship between the relative sizes

of its stage and auditorium but it does not excuse this for a range of producer/promoters, as



the Gleeds’ Appendix 1 points out. Many find it impractical, unaesthetically suitable or

would not consider it appropriate for their productions for one or more reasons.

• All but one of the producers questioned for this commentary mentioned their concern at the

seasonal variance in the Scarborough audience catchment. The size of the house alone is

partly responsible for insinuating this anxiety suggesting that it is a place for vast summer

audiences and consequently thinner off-season ones. Also responsible is a concern always

felt about seaside venues which self-evidently can only draw their audiences from the land-

side of their location. (It should also be noted in this context that there is substantially less

product available during the summer months than the winter).

• Only one other theatre in Table B, Blackpool Opera House, is seasonal. It does not

however operate on a stand-alone basis but as part of the Winter Garden complex run by

Centre Parcs. It is extremely doubtful whether it would have survived were it not a

constituent element of this set of buildings.

• The Futurist does not fit easily onto any one touring circuit because of its stage size and

seating capacity and its market potential.

2.4 Economics of large-scale receiving houses, producer output and producers

Economic principles The overhead of a receiving theatre must be covered either by subsidy, by the marginal surpluses

achieved on the presented programme (the difference between box office income and the cost of

presenting the shows often referred to as the “retained margin”), the ancillary income from the sale

of associated services or a combination of these. Seeking to balance the length of run of any one

presentation against its potential audience and therefore maximise any surplus that can be made is

a primary skill of theatre management. The larger the receiving house the larger its overhead.

Economies of scale on personnel and administrative costs are often overtaken, particularly in older

buildings, by increased maintenance and utility costs. If the availability of product is restricted it is

therefore much more difficult for the management of a larger theatre to find attractions which not

only suit the physical size of the house but will meet its economic requirements. Where patron

catchment is limited, for whatever reason, the formula for achieving financial equilibrium is even

more challenging to discover.

The balanced programme The economic formula is not the only one that has to be applied to the programme balance. Theatre

is a broad church. The term covers a vast variety of genres. The interpretation of the word “drama”

alone gives an indication of this breadth. The formula must therefore also seek to be inclusive to

ensure that the programme has a wide scope of attraction. Across the board its appeal should be

as universal as is possible to mirror as well as lead the diversity of public interest and taste in the

arts and entertainment.

The shortage of product Despite the popularity of the medium there exists a national dearth of large-scale touring product.

Taking comparative snapshots of the programme of any 1000+ seater theatre in 1990 and 2010 it is

clear that on average the number of performances they offer has diminished. The product shortage

is particularly acute in the summer months.

National lottery and increased building provision In part this is because the circuit has increased in size. Thanks to the National Lottery, new or

renewed large-scale receiving theatres have been opened in Cardiff, Edinburgh, Milton Keynes,

Woking, Salford, Stoke-on-Trent and High Wycombe during this period and will be joined by

Aylesbury Waterside this summer. These theatres alone have demanded an additional 420 weeks

of product per year.



Producer output

Overall producer output has reduced during the period. This does not simply apply to its quantum

but also to its scale. There are now fewer productions capable of sustaining week long runs or

longer and there are fewer producers and promoters able to service receiving houses and in

particular the larger ones. The reasons for this are complex and mainly economic.

Changes in the economics of touring

For the producer, legislative requirements, star salaries and a demand for lavish effects have

added significantly to production costs. During the 1990s, (following the first regional touring

production of Cats in the late 1980’s) musicals began to increase in scale and cost. Modestly-priced

work for a modest reward shared between producer and promoter became riskier as the cost of

shows increased. Repeated presentations of “named” musicals occurred with more regularity. The

provision of week-long runs of unexceptional but good productions began to dwindle as did

commercial drama.

Producer costs

Creating and touring large scale productions implies considerable cost.3 The quantum of both risk

and cost involved can only be sustained by touring on a circuit that is sufficiently long and with

enough venues to minimise risk, recover initial production costs and potentially make a profit.

However there are less than thirty theatres of over 1300 seats capable of taking large-scale work at

all, and with some deciding not to rebook “named” touring musicals, the options for producers are

seriously limited. It is not surprising therefore to find many of these theatres experiencing

considerable difficulty in offering a full year’s programme.

Guarantees

Comment should be made here on the references to guarantees in both the ABL and Gleeds

reports. Guarantee is the popular half of the term often used in theatrical parlance: “against loss”

being the missing element of the phrase. Commercial producers create work in order to make

money not simply to ensure that they can present shows without risk of loss.

Joint risk

The most expensive shows are often promoted at joint risk to producer and venue. With weekly

costs ranging from £70,000 (for shows such as Rocky Horror Show) to £175,000 (e.g.Mary

Poppins) such sums cannot feasibly be guaranteed by a venue with any regularity, however secure

the attraction may seem. The business planning of such productions is therefore subject to the most

rigorous scrutiny by both parties and it is unlikely that any producer would wish to risk expenditure

of these levels without a clear indication based on precedent that the market for the production

exists and that box office income could substantially exceed the show’s costs. This is not just

related to the venue’s size but to its marketing history as well as its standing and reputation in the

local and regional marketplace.

The economic value of drama

Changes in public taste and form and the view that drama is not best perceived in large-scale

venues have been contributory causes to its steady erosion at the large scale. The touring stage

play itself has become miniaturised in both cast size and theme. Whatever drama’s artistic value for

the patron, its economic strength on the touring circuit lies in its comparatively cheap cost and

therefore diminished risk to the receiving house management. Week-long runs of eight

performances potentially offer the most economic return on marketing and all other receiving house

presentation costs.

3 A large-scale post West-End musical is likely to cost between £80,000 and £120,000 to run whilst a blockbuster such as Les Miserables or Mary Poppins wil cost

between £150,000 and £175,000 per week.



The decline of the touring week

By 2000 the large-scale circuit was already beginning to show distinct signs of strain as the

production line had begun to seriously falter. The “touring-week” economy which had been the

mainstay of the national touring circuit for over 60 years and had become the economic

denominator of large-scale touring theatres started to vary. An increasing number of split

weeks, one-night attractions and “dark” theatres was the resultant programming characteristic.

2.5 The two main regional theatre operators

Ambassador Theatre Group

The national scarcity of large extent product may be further exacerbated for the Futurist by the

newly enlarged Ambassador Theatre Group (“ATG”). This theatre company recently acquired the

Live Nation theatres making it the single biggest regional operating theatre business in the country

with twelve regional theatres of over 1300 seats (and a further fifteen below this size). Their ability

to programme centrally and their enormous buying power will undoubtedly skew the marketplace.

Indeed it would be possible for entire tours to be created and run on the basis of solely visiting ATG

venues. This could particularly affect theatres already deemed less attractive by producers. In

addition, as ATG is itself a significant producer it may well be that they create product at this scale

exclusively to serve their own venues.

Qdos

The Scarborough-based Qdos Group are ATG’s only important competitor though they currently

operate only seven regional receiving theatres. However within their group of companies they have

both promoting as well as producing arms and their contribution to the national touring network is

significant particularly with regard to pantomime (see below).

2.6 The large-scale genre landscape

Changes in programme trends

Large scale receiving theatres have been built over the last one hundred and fifty years from a

combination of economic and artistic imperatives. Whilst the economic still apply, the artistic have

changed largely due to public taste and occasionally to artistic license. This section of the report

attempts to provide a brief survey of theatrical programming, production availability and

programming trends on the large scale.

Blockbuster musicals

The last twenty five years have been dominated by “Blockbuster” musicals which began to appear

on the circuit in the late 1980s. These are the super large scale vehicles such as Cats, Martin

Guerre, Les Misèrables and Miss Saigon which come out of the West End in as near their original

form as the constraints of touring allow, going to large-scale venues generally bringing their own

touring technical crew with them. They are lavish in terms of scale, number of cast and orchestra,

production values and consequently cost. Their economics also demand lengthier sit-down

seasons effectively cutting out large periods of the year for other touring producers and their higher

ticket prices inevitably consume more of the patron pound. Venue managements which have come

to rely on them (as well as other less expensive musicals) as an economic expedient have gradually

turned away from presenting drama. With fewer plays available, audiences began to develop an

appetite for musical work alone.

The musical in general

A brief survey of all musicals available for the large scale undertaken for this report suggests that in

the 2008 season there was an average of 25 weeks per theatre available throughout the country at



this scale and quality of work4. However, roughly half of these productions were not new. Some like

Joseph and His Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat and Blood Brothers have been on the road for

many years and theatres are often reluctant to over-programme return visits.

Commercial opera and dance

There are a very few weeks of opera, ballet, dance and ice productions available commercially and

even fewer available with subsidy (see below) although these can sometimes be sufficiently

profitable to sustain the proportionate large-scale overhead of the theatres they serve. The

traditions in which much ballet was created require large open stage space and wings. The same is

true of ice shows. Opera often requires considerable forces of personnel and theatres with a good

natural acoustic. Commercial companies frequently diminish the scale of the ballet and operas they

perform. Recorded music substitutes the live orchestra and there are fewer personnel than the

original demanded. The results are often deficient.

Arts Council England and the large-scale touring

Arts Council England’s (“ACE”) current policy towards provision at the larger scale has three main

elements. It provides support for a number of permanent companies: seven touring lyric companies

(Welsh National Opera, Opera North, Glyndebourne Touring, English Touring Opera (“ETO”),

English National Ballet, Birmingham Royal Ballet (“BRB”), and Northern Ballet, the Royal National

Theatre (“RNT”), Royal Shakespeare Company (“RSC”). These seven companies provide however

no more than 140 weeks per year between them. ETO and Northern Ballet do not significantly

feature on the large scale. This leaves less than 80 weeks available from the others for the entire

large scale circuit.

Drama

The two ACE subsidised national drama companies rarely tour on the large-scale and have almost

entirely avoided theatres of over 1500 seats. ACE also has funds specifically hypothecated for

middle- to large-scale companies based in regional theatres to tour. These provide some thirty

weeks per year of touring productions although in 2008 only two of these weeks were to theatres of

over 1500 seats. The third ACE subsidised element provides project funding for individually

produced large-scale work of all genres. It also funds certain regional producing theatres to tour.

Commercial drama is available to middle-scale theatres but tends to favour those with capacities

around 900 seats and rarely presents in venues of more than 1300.

Spheres of Influence

Subsidised work, however, accounts for less than 8% of all work shown in middle- and large-scale

receiving theatres and on the large-scale circuit is almost entirely restricted to dance and opera The

Arts Council operates a “spheres of influence” policy for opera. This was created to ensure that

there should be a fair and equal national distribution of productions. The vast majority of the large-

scale opera companies only visit the country’s main conurbations and cities of size. The cost of

large-scale subsidised ballet similarly restricts its distribution. Although the Arts Council is currently

redefining its touring distribution policy indications are that Scarborough is unlikely to be regarded

as a priority for large scale touring.

Pantomime

Pantomimes comprise an important economic element in the lives of most presenting theatres. In

the main they work on the same circuit basis as other shows but on an annual instead of a weekly

cycle. Their season can be from ten days to over two months in length. They conform very strictly to

scale, not only physically and in terms of the number of cast and band, but in the fame and

4 It is impossible to be more accurate as some theatres will take productions for one week, others will programme the same show for two and there was one blockbuster

available in late 2008 (Mary Poppins) which fulfilled substantially longer seasons.



consequently cost of their principal artists. They have heavy demands on scenery and scenery

changing. The Futurist’s current configuration makes it a difficult “fit” for most pantomimes on the

circuit. The theatre’s capacity suggests a level of pantomime far greater in scale than the stage

could accommodate. A pantomime of more modest scale is likely to be dwarfed by a 2150 seat

theatre. ATG is a significant pantomime producer but not the largest. Together with Qdos they are

responsible for over 70% of the pantomimes presented in the theatres listed in Table B.

Family and Children’s shows

This genre has thrived over the last ten years. The popularity of stage adaptations of children’s

books and of television programmes have resulted in new producers entering this field. Although

ticket pricing often means that retained margins are comparatively modest, the ability to schedule

multiple performances and frequently during the day as well as in the evening, maximises the

potential (and relatively easily defined) market. This flexibility in performance scheduling also allows

theatre managements to programme children’s shows during the daytime while offering alternative

evening adult entertainment. The quality of some of the work however is questionable and given

the sensitivity of this particular genre requires careful control.

Summer shows

Perhaps ABL’s description of “a lack of modernisation” applies most accurately to this category of

presentation. Variety show seasons at seaside venues have all but disappeared as tastes have

changed and the popularity for this kind of “all-round” entertainment, which might once have been

the staple of the Futurist’s programme, has dwindled.

One-nighter attractions

Perhaps the most significant change caused by the shortage of productions of scale has been the

increased programming of one-night attractions. These were originally star-driven taking the place

of variety shows and sometimes using the very artists who had topped their bills. Their gradual

disappearance, as nature took its toll, resulted in their replacement by less immediately

recognisable “stars”, by “look-alike” acts, by the mediocre and the sheer tawdry. The values of the

shows themselves are also often those one would expect from productions operating on a daily

turnaround basis. However, instead of being used as “fillers” between other longer seasons of work

they have, in theatres such as the Futurist, become the mainstay of their economy. The two most

frequent one-nighter forms are:

• Stand-up comedy

This is a burgeoning area in many large-scale theatre programmes. The immediacy of comedy,

its ability to comment on events almost as they happen, makes it as relevant and as popular as

television. Whether as a compilation of acts or a sole comedian, these performances are cheap

and generally simple in terms of their staging. Some artists however will only play arena-sized

venues whilst others will only play intimate venues. Fee scales vary enormously and may

depend on factors other than venue size and the artist’s name value. Trying out new material is

the most common reason for being able to book a named artist cheaply. Considerable

judgement is required in assessing a comedian’s popularity and whether their topicality will

decline during the lead time required to schedule them.

• Rock and pop

The one-night niche was also briefly filled by rock and pop stars. These events were often

financially advantageous for theatre managements. As the music industry changed however

and it became less useful and more costly for artists to promote themselves and their music by

theatrical presentation, so their usefulness to venue managers shrank. Contemporary pop and

rock by well-established and famous bands now only features in large-scale arenas having left

even the larger theatres with up-and-coming new bands trying out their work as well as artists of

a bygone age and tribute bands. This latter genre has become very popular and features in the

programmes of most large-scale venues including the Futurist. Once again quality control can

be an issue and some theatre managements consulted for this report suggested that such



bands had a detrimental effect on the theatre’s image. Though there is scope for programming

of this kind.

One-nighters and audience development issues

Public taste in entertainment is arguably more diverse than it was twenty five years ago. The new

entertainment media are in part responsible for creating a plethora of “stars” whose currency is

extremely limited. It has become increasingly difficult for theatre managements to identify the status

of artists of all kinds and what they might mean at the box office. Whilst the costs of a one-nighter

may be relatively modest the risk can be as proportionately great as that for a one week event.

Indeed the associated marketing costs of one-night promoted attractions with artists of varying

appeal (and alas sometimes talent) can be high. Although short-term financial risk may therefore be

reduced (failing for one night being cheaper than failing for six), their consistent promotion is likely

to eventually result in diminishing quality and the longer-term effects on audience growth and

development may be adverse. The Futurist would seem to exemplify this.

Newer production ideas

The current paucity of large-scale product provision may well be a temporary downturn in a

renewable cycle. It is difficult, if not impossible to predict how public taste will change. New styles

and brands of entertainment are consistently being invented and others re-invented. “Strictly Come

Dancing”, public auditions for stage shows, Britain’s Got Talent and The X Factor although all

originally developed for television can and do have stage spin-offs and may be particularly suited to

the large-scale auditorium. The revival of interest in human circus skills, a general interest in

audience participative work and in the development of new technologies all suggest that other

formats for the stage may yet complement more traditional uses. Some of these may well be

suitable for the Futurist although the more successful TV to stage shows already often play large

arenas.

Festivals

Mention is made in the both the ABL and the DJ:SPA reports of Festivals and their possible use as

programme constituents. The Edinburgh International Festival launched in 1947 with its assembly of

artistic talent from Britain and around the world has inspired many to create something similar with a

style and brand of their own. Brighton Festival was largely a Council initiative and designed to kick-

start the tourist season (and bring it forward by some weeks). Cardiff’s International Music Festival

was an attempt to “internationalise” Cardiff and make it a more appropriate candidate as a

European Capital of Culture by giving it a two week cultural focus on musical work. Festivals often

require venues and it is true that the Futurist could play a significant part in any such Scarborough-

based arts festival. It has to be remembered however that festivals are not cheap. Curation costs

are high and because a large number of events happen in a brief space of time so their concomitant

financial risk is considerable. Whilst Brighton’s level of subvention for its Festival is indissoluble

from the subsidy for the Dome it is certainly a net spender and not a contributor. Cardiff’s Festival,

which ran into financial problems and is now in liquidation cost the Council and BBC Wales a start-

up subsidy of £750,000 for its initial season.

The Programming problem

The national context is described in detail to describe some of the difficulties in programming which

exist within the industry as a whole and particularly on the large scale circuit. Productions are not

simply readily available for the asking. The suggested 150 events referred to by ABL would need

intensely pro-active programming and funds to back them.

In its current configuration the Theatre is little short of handicapped. Many productions of scale will

not be able to consider the Theatre by virtue of the restrictions of its stage house and those that do

are likely to find the compromises they may have to make, unpalatable.

ABL states that the “provision of high quality facilities will enable an increase in the range of arts

activity available for audiences and participants. It will attract artists from outside the Borough and



provide `inspiration and scope for developing artists locally” But the expenditure of substantial

capital on any another configuration will not necessarily solve a programming problem which is not

simply of Scarborough’s making.

A new and attractive venue with state-of-the-art facilities back and front of house may initially prove

more attractive to producers but they are unlikely to return unless there is a consistency in

attendance. This can only be achieved through investment in long-term programme planning and in

marketing, in improving audience attendance to a level where profitability not guarantee against

loss becomes the norm.

2.7 Programming comparators and subsidy

Performance output

Although there is some truth in Gleeds’ comment that “every new theatre is unique” comparators

are useful not only to see the different styles of management operation but are valuable for

indicating available programming as well as the overall sustainability of the theatres in question.

Four theatres were selected as examples from the 1500+ seat section of the list (Appendix 2) on the

basis of the availability of the information they made available. The number of performances are

indicated for each according to currently scheduled programme genre for 26 weeks (182 days) from

March 29th 2010:

Genre Bournemouth

Pavilion

1500 seats

Stoke

Regent

1710 seats

Sunderland

Empire

1850 seats

Scarborough

Futurist

2150 seats

Blackpool

Opera

House

3200 seats

Children 2 17 8 2 1

Concert 37 11 7 20 11

Musical 64 33 48 0 0

Play 0 17 11 0 0

Comedy 10 0 6 15 5

Variety 3 5 4 2 2

Dance 3 12 9 2 8

Amateur 0 11 9 3 0

Total 119 106 102 44 27

Stoke-on-Trent Regent Theatre

The writer’s personal experience of programming the Regent Theatre Stoke’s first year on behalf of

the Ambassador Group was that producers needed to be cajoled and seduced with fees and

guarantees to commit to touring to this venue which was planned and its finances premised on

operating for 50 weeks of the year. The first year’s programme was only 36 weeks long and the

second year 41, and this, despite the incentive for producers to visit the two other highly successful

theatres which at that time comprised the Ambassadors group5. The Regent’s establishment as a

national touring venue was a long, hard and expensive battle.

Blackpool Opera House

The scale of activity at Blackpool Opera House as shown in the above table is critically low. Even in

the summer months its operators cannot find sufficient product to keep the theatre open for long

enough periods to begin to offset its own annual running costs and it has been playing to audiences

of less than an average 35% of its capacity. The Grand Theatre although considerably smaller

operates in direct competition for what programme provision exists and other Blackpool venues

mean that there is a vast over-provision of theatre seats in the town. It is, in fact, only sustainable

5 The Regent opened in 1999 . The two other regional theatres in the group were Milton Keynes and Woking New Victoria.



because it is part of the Winter Gardens complex which until 2009 was supported by a subsidy of

£1M from the City. It must be assumed that the Futurist too is only sustained by its subsidy from the

Council and the income it derives from its cinema programme. Though attendance figures are not

available from the current Futurist management it is clear that 44 performances in a six month

period which includes the main tourist season are insufficient to sustain a theatre of this size

whatever the percentage of occupancy.

Stoke, Sunderland and Bournemouth

Of the three other theatres in the table both Stoke and Sunderland are run by Ambassadors, Stoke

(originally a cinema) was rebuilt in 1999 after many years of dereliction at a cost of £23M.

Sunderland has recently been refurbished and its backstage almost entirely rebuilt at a cost of

£4.5M. Bournemouth Pavilion is owned and directly operated by the Council as part of the

Bournemouth International Centre. All three theatres operate with revenue subsidy from their

respective councils: Stoke-on-Trent provide £575,000 for the Regent and its associated Victoria

Concert Hall; Sunderland’s subvention of the Empire is currently £391,000 per annum

Bournemouth’s £187,000.6

At a somewhat smaller scale the Norwich Theatre Royal’s annual Economic Survey for 2009 shows

the average subsidy for fourteen receiving theatres with a mean capacity of 935 seats, and staging

an average of 301 performances, was £378,000 per year.

ABL’s comment that: “through review and revision, Scarborough’s theatres will be able to attract

higher quality product including touring schemes, festivals and one night performances which will

increase the range of choice available for residents whilst also attracting tourists and/or enhancing

their experience in Scarborough” might not only be too confident but fail to imply that whatever

“review and revision” means, it may carry a considerable cost.

Brighton

The City of Brighton and Hove is a useful comparator for Scarborough in some respects. In the

early 1990’s with falling tourist numbers and a tourist infrastructure in need of substantial

investment it set about re-branding its image with a number of council or council-sponsored

initiatives. In the sphere of live entertainment plans were created for the refurbishment of the

Brighton Dome complex which would see it develop into a concert hall (seating 1800), an adjacent

middle-scale multi-purpose performance space (capable of seating up to 700 in a variety of

configurations) and the Pavilion Studio (vari-form seating up to 140). This was a millennium project

intended to complement the Theatre Royal an extant privately operated 19th century theatre

(seating 951) and the Brighton Centre, the council’s own multi-purpose entertainment hall ( seating

4500 or standing over 5000) . Together with other arts centres and smaller fringe theatres this

would give the City a potential nightly capacity of nearly 11,000 seats.

The Brighton Festival organisation runs the Dome on a year-round basis. In 2000 the Ambassadors

Group acquired the Theatre Royal and now run it as a marginally profitable venture on a 52-week

per year basis. Essentially its structure is that of a playhouse and it houses a mixed programme

which is dominated more by drama than by any other genre. The expense of renewing the Brighton

Centre, which occupies a dominant position on the seafront, has proved too much for budget’s for

the current decade though this will probably take place during the next.

As a group their similarity to Scarborough’s Spa Complex, Open Air Theatre and Futurist Theatre is

clear. In programming terms the venues are also broadly similar. The Brighton Centre is

infrequently open and mostly for major pop concerts, comedians of international reputation, ice

spectaculars and in some years a pantomime. The Dome concert hall sticks mainly to both popular

and classical concerts with occasional forays into dance and even more occasional musicals though

6 Shared services with the Bournemouth International Centre may cause this figure to be understated.



its stage restrictions (there is no flying and impeded wing space) make it unsuitable for many of

these. Both the Corn Exchange and the Pavilion present small- and middle-scale toured work as

well as productions for less conventional tastes than those housed at the Theatre Royal. Whilst

there is no formal programme protocol between the three their architecture and their marketing

make their individual offers very clear to the public.

However Brighton is no template for Scarborough. The refurbishment of the Dome cost £22M in

2002 and is subsidised (as the Brighton Dome & Festival, the autonomous Trust which runs it) at

over £2.2M per year. The refurbishment was grafted onto an already thriving pattern of

entertainment in the City which has now been enhanced by the Theatre Royal’s group status which

ensures it gets the best programme elements of what is available nationally.

The Brighton Centre’s life as an entertainment venue is ancillary to its main functions as a

conference, meeting and sports venue. And, in addition, it should not be forgotten that the resident

population of the City is 248,000 and is at the centre of a conurbation of 460,000 with excellent

transport links to the rest of the south coast and to London which is less than 60 minutes away by

train.

2.8 Local programming considerations and the impact of recent developments

The ABL report while drawing on the earlier 2004 Team Report on Scarborough Spa Complex

Entertainment options does not describe the programme of the other venues in Scarborough merely

referring to their original or present function. The Team Report is more detailed and still remains

largely accurate although the Corner Complex has now been demolished, the Spa Grand Hall is

currently closed for refurbishment and the output of the Futurist has somewhat shrunk.7

The Spa Complex and the Open Air Theatre

The redevelopment of the Spa Complex (“Spa”) Grand Hall with approximately 1600 seats and the

advent of the Open Air Theatre (“OAT”) in July 2010 with 6500 will significantly impact further on the

general availability of product for the Futurist. The possibility of creating a programming protocol

between the venues as suggested in the ABL report is unlikely if the operation of the Spa as well as

that of the OAT were to leave the Council’s control. Product shortage is also likely to short-circuit

the complementarity of programming referred to in the DJ:SPA report. Certainly it is not easy to see

the Spa and the Futurist existing side by side without any form of adjudication between them.

OAT programme

As the Apollo Resorts-operated OAT has yet to publish its first full programme, the indicative

programme for the venue contained in the Drivers Jonas/Culver-Dodds/Audiences Yorkshire

Business Case for Open Air Theatre 2009 (“DJ: OAT”). has been used in this commentary to

assess the potential impact on the Futurist. This suggests that during a twelve week summer

season the venue would accommodate twelve major concerts plus two other events per week.

Added to this there would be other events in Northstead Manor Gardens, ranging from community

focussed events and Festivals to daytime street fairs with brightly coloured market stalls and street

entertainers. DJ:OAT’s ’s principal programme justification for the venue is to provide “an

opportunity for Scarborough to promote live shows for acts that require, due to national and

international popularity, a substantially larger capacity to satisfy demands of both audiences and

commercial promoters”.

A clearer idea is provided of the level of act they anticipate presenting by their reference to the

programme of the Sheffield Arena. These artists and bands include: Muse; Arctic Monkeys;

Kasabian; Green Day; Status Quo, Pink; UB40; Cliff Richard and the Shadows; Elton John;

7 See Appendix 1



Spandau Ballet; Fleetwood Mac; Katherine Jenkins and Michael Ball; Michael McIntyre, Eddie

Izzard and Russell Howard. Additionally they state that “OAT will potentially offer the opportunity for

more new, un-signed bands to showcase their talents and build their live performance experience”.

The first individual concert scheduled, an operatic evening with Jose Carreras and Kiri te Kanawa

substantiates the level and quality of artist they propose to employ.

If the Futurist’s auditorium capacity was ever an advantage it is likely to find that the major “in

season” events will choose to play the bigger OAT venue in preference. The potential for increased

financial reward and the flexibility of staging available in this state-of-the-art open air arena will

diminish the attraction of playing in a 2150 seater. Careful choices will need to be made in the “look-

alike” area of the Futurist’s programme when the stars themselves are likely to opt to play at the

OAT. Qualitatively the Futurist’s attractions are likely overall to suffer by comparison. While there is

always a market for the kind of star attractions that play at the Futurist, they may well appear

homespun when contrasted with the sophisticated fare on offer at the OAT.

Spa facilities and programme

The Spa redevelopment and in particular the changes being made to the Grand Hall are also likely

to have a considerable adverse impact on the Futurist. The remodelling of the auditorium will

contain a stage of comparable dimensions to the Futurist8 and although there will not be full-height

flying it will nevertheless be possible to store scenery and hang equipment above the stage as well

as to “tumble” cloths.9 down onto the stage which are rolled and stored in the flies. Adequate wing

space will be provided by virtue of a semi-permanent proscenium. The disposition of the seats

between Stalls and Circle levels will mean that up to 60010 people in the Circle will have raked

seating. The remainder however will be on the flat-floored stalls level. The precise height of the

stage is yet to be confirmed and will need to be sufficient height to ensure a reasonable view from

the 800+ seats. There is no back of house get-in. Scenery and equipment has to be brought in

through the main auditorium doors and across the auditorium floor. A complete blackout in the

auditorium is also not possible. Despite these shortcomings the Grand Hall, together with the rest of

the complex will have the opportunity to play a new and expanded role and move away from ABL’s

description of both the Futurist and the Spa’s “lack of modernisation in programming, both venues

hosting poor quality, tacky shows.” There is no programme in the Grand Hall this summer while the

refurbishment proceeds but the DJ:SPA report makes clear the intention of upping the Spa’s game,

bringing it into the 21st century and providing it with a physical framework where programming

ambitions can be realised.

Spa programme strategy

A detailed programme strategy is being developed for the Spa but strong relationships with national

touring producers will need to be developed alongside comprehensive marketing and audience

development strategies. However there is every reason to believe that if these are properly

undertaken the venue could meet the targets the DJ:SPA Business Case sets out. The key areas

that refurbishment may not cater for remain those identified earlier as missing from the Futurist.

Large-scale opera with its demands on space and size (and finance) cannot be housed in the

Grand Hall as well as large-scale musicals demanding full height flying facilities. The flat-floored

stalls seating may prove a deterrent to audiences for dance and ballet though this can only be

empirically tested.

Duplicated provision

The refurbished Grand Hall could probably be capable of housing every event currently listed at the

Futurist. This duplication of a receiving house role is not unique to Scarborough. There is more than

8 see Appendix 2 9 Backcloths are stored , rolled up in the flies, and released to unroll and fall onto the stage. 10

final seating numbers are yet to be determined as the choice of seating has not yet been made. It is anticipated however that the Grand Hall will seat between 1500 and

1600 patrons.



one receiving house in a number of seaside towns (see Blackpool above), in Edinburgh,

Manchester and Birmingham. Whilst all the theatres in these towns have difficulty in programming

for a full year (indeed Edinburgh’s venues are only used at capacity during Festival time) all have a

catchment capable of supporting more than one venue. The duplication in Scarborough seems

absurd in a town its size despite the annual influx of visitors.

Stephen Joseph Theatre

The shift in emphasis at the Stephen Joseph Theatre since the 2004 Team Report also bears

mention. Apart from the fact that the company has a new home, the musical content of its

programme has increased slightly and more weeks tend to be devoted to a relatively consistent

group of middle-scale touring companies. This diversification has lent the venue a more catholic

identity and further diminished the choices of production available to the Futurist.

Programme gaps

ABL made clear the fact that the Futurist has no future in its present form. But the changes in

Scarborough’s entertainment provision and the unavailability of advance programme planning

information from OAT and the Spa make it more difficult to identify a clear role for the Futurist as a

renewed or refurbished theatre,. To view its programming potential by identifying gaps in the town’s

general entertainment provision might form the basis of an argument for its retention were these

obvious and their source of supply guaranteed. Neither situation exists. The gaps seem to consist

principally of opera, ballet and musicals of scale as well as rock concerts for younger people.

Opera and ballet

The availability of serious lyric work on a subsidised basis is questionable given the Arts Council’s

current priorities for its distribution and if presented on a commercial basis the five large scale

companies are unlikely to cost less than £150,000 per week. Smaller commercial ventures are

always available but their quality and reliability need careful checking and further research.

Musicals

The availability of musicals and their cost has been mentioned earlier but it should be reported that

Cameron Mackintosh Ltd., the Ambassadors Group and Mark Goucher Ltd. would not only require

substantial persuasion to visit a renewed Futurist, but demand a guarantee and a contractual

obligation for the venue to provide an adequate marketing service.

Rock concerts

ABL’s report states that “in terms of ambience and synergy with other facilities the large scale multi-

purpose venue suitable for rock concerts would appear to be a better fit with the lively Futurist site

than the smart Spa”. But there is a contradiction at the heart of this. Popular concerts for young

people, the “club nights” ABL refers to do not sit happily in auditoria which also accommodate

serious lyric productions. Apart from their differing acoustic requirements, venues which create a

reputation and a brand for themselves as rock venues tend to be avoided by audiences interested

in opera and ballet. It is a conundrum exemplified by the unused popcorn machine sitting in the rear

stalls of Bristol Hippodrome in weeks when Welsh National Opera visits.

Cinema

Cinema has proved a compatible and useful bedfellow to the live entertainment programme at the

Futurist for many years. So useful in fact that it would seem as though the live events are now

considerably outnumbered by screenings and have become adjunctive to the cinema programme

rather than the other way around. No cinema attendance figures have been made available for this

report so it is impossible to draw any conclusion about the cinema’s usage other than the verbatim

comments about it in the ABL report where its usage was considered then to be significant enough

for a cinema, either single screen or multiplex, to be included in revised Futurist schemes in the



ABL and subsequent reports. If the Futurist were to be lost to the town alternative arrangements to

supplement the cinema available at the Hollywood Plaza would have to be found.

Under-investment

A brief review of ABL’s budget model for a new Futurist is provided at Appendix 3. This suggests

that the level of subsidy they arrived at was considerably understated. It is clearly not sensible to

contemplate a substantial refurbishment as well as the probability of an ongoing need for

subvention for the Theatre on the basis of the venue eventually plugging gaps in the Borough’s

programme of entertainment. It is a sad fact that the lack of investment has debilitated the theatre’s

functionality as much as has the gradual dilapidation of its physical fabric. Any new Futurist offer

would need to re-convince patrons as well as producers of the security of its covenant. This is likely

to prove as expensive to put right as any refurbishment and on the basis of the information currently

available cannot be seriously recommended.



3. MARKET POTENTIAL

3.1 Current theatre and entertainments provision and attendance in Scarborough

Provision

Scarborough has a plethora of seats available in a variety of venues. This is to substantially

increase shortly with the re-opening of the Open Air Theatre.

The TEAM report of 2003 summarised venue capacities, as did later reports. The changes since

2003, as far as we can tell, are that the Corner Complex has now closed, and the Spa Grand Hall

may be reconfigured slightly during the process of its refurbishment. The Futurist with the largest

auditorium, currently has 33% of all main fixed venue seats; the Spa Grand Hall 29%; and the

Stephen Joseph (2 spaces) 9%.

Futurist Theatre 2,150

Spa Complex

- Grand Hall 1,894*

- Spa Theatre 567

- Ocean Room 700

- Sun Court (outdoor) 260

Stephen Joseph Theatre

- The Round 404

- McCarthy 165

YMCA 290

Westwood 100

Total 6,530

*This figure includes restricted view seats. SBC sometimes quote the capacity as 1600, which excludes restricted views. The

total capacity of the Grand Hall, when refurbished, may be 1600.

Holiday camps and parks significantly swell the numbers of seats available, more than doubling the

entertainments capacity. There are some substantial venues sited within the holiday camps and

parks in the area. Notably the four main sites have venues with a total capacity of 7,250 across 7

cabaret style spaces. These present light entertainment events which might rival some of those

offered by the Futurist and the Spa Grand Hall.

In addition, there are a number of outdoor events taking place in recreational parks, such as

Peasholm Park, and in the Dalby Forest which stage mostly music (rock or classical), and

occasional events and festivals on the beach and elsewhere. These significantly add to the number

of entertainment capacities. The Driver Jonas report on the Open Air Theatre indicates that the

capacity of Dalby Forest is 5,000. Assuming say 5 concerts a year in the Forest and perhaps 3

elsewhere with capacities of say 1,000, an overall estimate might perhaps be an additional 28,000

tickets a year to add to the capacity.

The final, and very significant factor, is the soon to be re-opened Open Air Theatre. Offering 6,500

seats it will offer high profile events on a regular basis throughout the summer, with the potential for

occasional events during the winter months, although this may prove to be optimistic given the

inclement east coast weather. An average of 12 events would add an actual capacity of 78,000 per

annum. Drivers Jonas report on the Open Air Theatre works on the assumption of 45,000 tickets

sold, to include 6 major events and 6 of only 1000 capacity.



If all fixed venues (including OAT) were operating simultaneously, which could happen on occasion

in summer months, the total number of seats to fill in one night could be in the region of

20,000. This excludes open air events (other than OAT).

Hypothetically, based on capacities and estimated number of days open in a year, there could be

over 3 million ticket opportunities available, offering varying types of entertainment, in just one

year in the Scarborough locality.

The basis for this estimate is as follows:

The Futurist, Spa Grand Hall, Spa Theatre

and SJT, open 7 days a week (allow 360 days a year) 1,866,600

All other fixed venues(1,917), open average of 3 days

a week (156 p.a.) 299,052

Holiday camps/parks- minimum estimate of capacity 7500

and based on 40% capacity across the year 1,095,000

Open Air Theatre (based on DJ estimate of seats sold p.a.) 45,000

Other open air events (as above) 28,000

Total estimated potential entertainments seats in one year 3,336, 652

Attendances

TEAM reported that, in 2002, the Futurist tickets sold 31% of all seats sold in Scarborough’s main

fixed venues. Despite its small capacity the Stephen Joseph Theatre with a much smaller capacity

sold 38% of all seats in the town. The Spa Complex (4 spaces) sold 28%. Average occupancy

across all venues was 27% with the Stephen Joseph at 86% and the Spa at 10%. The Futurist

claimed to be selling around 35% on average at that time. The ABL report estimated 200,000

attendances overall.

Current attendance information for the Futurist and Stephen Joseph Theatre has not been made

available for this study. The SJT appears to perform consistently well but most venues, especially

the Futurist and the Spa, have been under-utilised for many years. An analysis of the attendances

at the Spa Complex in 2009 demonstrates the lack of support experienced, with 2009 showing a

total of 16% of capacity sold, only a small increase on previous years. It appears likely that overall

attendances are still in the region of around 200,000 in the fixed venues, but excluding those in

open-air situations.

Year No of shows/concerts Total of seats available Tickets sold all shows/concerts % sold

2007 Grand Hall 249

Spa Theatre 165

Ocean Room 16

503,155* 67,841 13.5%

2008 Grand Hall 263

Spa Theatre 166

Ocean Room 10

521,922* 65,089 12.5%

2009 Grand Hall 213

Spa Theatre 156

Ocean Room 19

443,686* 70,634 16%

*The Grand Hall capacity is based on the capacity figure of 1600 seats (excluding restricted views), which yields a slightly

higher return.

The Spa Grand Hall is now closed for a period of refurbishment and will reopen in 2011 with plans

for revitalised programming. The extent of the support remains to be seen and will, to some extent

relate to the fate of the Futurist Theatre. As has been outlined above, the Spa has plans to offer

similar programming to the Futurist.



3.2 Factors affecting attendances: Population; competition; tourism

Population

The Scarborough Borough Council area includes the towns of Scarborough, Whitby and Filey and

the surrounding rural area, which is sparsely populated. There are large areas taken up by National

Park or Heritage Coast. The bulk of the population (60%) is in the 3 towns. Scarborough Borough is

one of 7 local authorities making up North Yorkshire, which has the second lowest population

density in England. Yorkshire’s total population exceeds 5million, however around 50% live in West

Yorkshire (source: Welcome to Yorkshire based on ONS (Office of National Statistics) 2008).

Transport connections may inhibit the flow of people into Scarborough on any regular basis. There

are no direct major motorway connections to the town, the nearest being the M1 and M62. Rail

services are available in the region but those coming from any distance must change trains, usually

at York.

The population statistics quoted in the ABL and other reports (from 2001 census:ONS) still apply, as

the next census is not until 2011. Given it is 9 years since the last census there could have been

changes in the profile of residents.

ABL quoted a population of 171, 628 within a 60-minute drivetime of Scarborough, which is just on

the perimeter of other major towns. The population of the Borough is 106,243 with around half

living in Scarborough town (50,135). Since the 1991 census there had been a fall in population of

2.3%, despite regional and national increases of c.3%. In 2001 there were more older people and

less younger people than the national averages. More than a quarter of Scarborough residents

(27.5%) were aged 60 or over (21% of regional and national populations). 22% were aged 20 to 39,

compared to 28% nationally. 58% were employed (national 61%) which reflects the higher numbers

of retired people rather than unemployed.

The average age is 42.7 (England/Wales is 39) with the highest numbers in the 30-59 age group

(40%) This is the classic profile of those who attend theatres, although as will be demonstrated

later in relation to market potential, not all fall within the most likely lifestyle groupings.

There are few, if any, large-scale theatres in this country which are set in areas of such low density

population and, even if their population levels are low, they almost all are located relatively close to

denser urban areas, with or without competitive venues (see Appendix 2). The capacity of the

Futurist is on a par with the capacities of large-scale theatres in major urban conurbations, such as

Manchester or Birmingham, which have catchment populations of at least ten times that of

Scarborough. Areas with a lower population density can, and do, successfully sustain theatres of

800-1300 seats, although the extent of regional competition also is a factor. Some of these, with the

right ambience, technical facilities, funding and marketing, can attract some of the shows which

might otherwise go to larger-scale venues.

Competition

The extent of sparsely populated rural land within 60 minutes of Scarborough, is a major concern

but, in addition, around the perimeters of the 60 minute drivetime and within 90 minutes there are a

number of larger-scale theatres presenting product of the type which would be competitive to a

redeveloped Futurist (e.g. York, Leeds, Hull). All already attract substantial audiences from the

Scarborough catchment. York, in particular, draws people from the Scarborough area for events

and cinema, with better quality venues and content being cited and major large-scale productions

go to Leeds. Although audiences for large-scale touring productions do travel substantial distances

(in excess of one hour), especially for musicals, opera and ballet, there is no reason to believe that

those living in the 45-90 minute drivetime from Scarborough would switch allegiance unless

programming were to be substantially different or the audience experience was markedly better.



Both scenarios are unlikely unless funding can be found to refurbish the Futurist to a high level,

both technically and in provision of vastly improved audience facilities.

OAT and Spa

The Open Air Theatre adds considerably to the overall entertainments capacity in Scarborough and,

should it succeed in attracting a regular number of high profile events each year as planned, it will

put a considerable strain on the available time and spending capacity of the target audiences,

especially those of the Futurist and Spa. The nature of the impact will depend to some extent on the

type of programming and the related target markets. Rock and pop will attract younger people in the

main part, although there are substantial numbers of older fans who will attend concerts by the

major bands of the 1960s to 1990s. It is expected that it will take a number of years for the events

programme to develop for the OAT and the audience figures will grow as popularity increases over

the years. As stated earlier, a provisional number of 12 events has been mentioned as a target

which, if sold out, would increase the potential annual capacity by 78,000. However, Drivers Jonas,

in its Business Case for the OAT, realistically bases its findings on 6 major/capacity events and 6

further events attracting around 1000 people, netting an overall audience attendance of 45,000 per

annum.

To put this into perspective, the whole of 2009’s entertainment attendance at the Spa was 70,634,

and previous statistics would indicate perhaps 50,000+ per year in the Futurist and around 65-

70,000 in the SJT. The OAT therefore will have a substantial impact on Scarborough’s

entertainment provision. However, according to DJ:OAT, it also has the potential to drive higher

volumes of tourists which would not only help the economy but could generate additional visits for

other venues, for those staying more than one night and if the offering were to be of sufficient

quality.

The redevelopment of the Spa complex, including the Grand Hall and Spa Theatre does not add

capacity to Scarborough’s provision, however it is planned to develop its programming substantially

and to ‘up its game’ which will provide directly competitive events to the Futurist Theatre. Given the

improvements to the visitor experience at the Spa, this will impact substantially on the Futurist’s

ability to attract audiences, especially if no money is invested in physical improvements, and, as

outlined earlier in this report, will also impact on its ability to attract producers and promoters.

Also mentioned earlier are the technical limitations of the Spa which will mean that some product

cannot be staged at this venue, such as larger scale opera and ballet and blockbuster musicals.

However, there is no likelihood of them being staged at the Futurist either unless a major

refurbishment/rebuild were to happen at considerable cost. It may be impractical to consider

staging these genres at the OAT, especially for the longer runs which musicals require. The

demand for opera and ballet is relatively low across the UK (source:TMA). Therefore, with low

potential identified in Scarborough, large-scale investment for this purpose alone could not be

justified. The blockbuster musicals would have the greatest capacity to attract large audiences and

from greater distances, and would satisfy a demand in the area but there is not enough product

available to justify vast expenditure on a suitable 2000+ seat theatre, solely on the basis of

musicals, even if producers were to choose the Futurist over other venues in the region.

Tourism

ABL includes mention in its report of the Yorkshire Coast Partnership Economic Development

Strategy vision which includes:

“A need to reposition the area in the leisure tourism market by building on its cultural and

environmental assets …”

ABL goes on to say that cultural tourism, whether based on arts, heritage or history, or other leisure

activity, is less seasonal than the traditional tourism on which Scarborough has relied, and attracts a

higher spending visitor. It says Scarborough:



“has the capacity to achieve the status and offer of some of the south coast resorts such as

Brighton and Bournemouth. Scarborough has the size, the history, the stunning landscape and the

potential to develop culture-led tourism and regeneration”.

It goes on to point out that cultural destinations frequently have one “excellent feature” which makes

them unique, although none have succeeded with a single unique selling point alone.

Whilst we would agree that cultural venues can radical transform towns or cities we would also

stress that the population density and transport facilities play a major part in ensuring the viability of

these cultural venues and, in order to attract cultural visitors from further afield, venues and their

offerings need to be of world class quality and the tourism infrastructure, including accommodation,

needs to be of the highest quality.

As an historic seaside resort Scarborough attracts large numbers of visitors. The total number of

visitors to Yorkshire is in excess of 5 million per year, however the majority of these are day visitors

(72%). Over half visiting the moors and coast area are from within Yorkshire and Humberside. A

large scale visitor survey (of over 10,000) conducted by Welcome to Yorkshire in 2008/9 showed

that there were 543,309 staying visitors on holiday in Scarborough in this period (the total number

staying including ‘Visiting Friends & Relatives, business and other visitors was 1,068,427). Of all

staying visitors only 2% said they had attended a cultural performance (theatre, play) which equates

to only 10,866 attendances (assuming one attendance to the theatre on their visit, although this was

not specified). Theatre attendance was not cited as a ‘main activity’ on their visit by more than a

handful of people. Further analysis reveals that, of the theatre attenders, 70% are staying in holiday

parks/static vans, where they may well be in-house entertainment on offer. The actual attendance to

venues outside of the parks would therefore be extremely low (perhaps 3,000). The sub-sample

numbers are too low for accurate analysis but it is a very clear indication that currently few visitors

to Scarborough visit the theatre.

A Visitor Survey conducted for SBC in 2004 also backs up this analysis. The survey shows that the

average spend per person per night was £48.63, however the bulk of this was spent on

accommodation and eating/drinking. An average of £1.47 was spent on entertainment implying few

went to the theatre or other staged entertainment (unless free). A previous SBC Visitor Survey

(1999/2000) highlighted that only 1% of visitors considered entertainments as a primary motivation

to visit; and 6% as a secondary motivation. ABL’s estimate (based on their market research) that

17% of visitors would attend the theatre seems somewhat over-optimistic.

Seasonality

Seasonality of the potential audience is a major factor to consider. Scarborough is a well known

seaside resort and attracts large numbers of visitors in the summer months, thus swelling the

resident population numbers. However, as mentioned above, many of the visitors stay in holiday

camps/parks and these present competitive entertainment events. The venues are free to each

site’s visitors, and given the ease of accessibility on site, offer an attractive option for an evening’s

entertainment. It is unlikely that these people would attend many events in the town’s venues unless

they were by big name artists, or were particularly unique. Although parks are open all year round,

the likelihood is that the majority of visitors will stay during the summer months and other holiday

times. In addition to the parks and camps, many of the hotels also offer in-house entertainment in

order to retain visitors on the premises.

The planned events for the Open Air Theatre will also be targeting large numbers of people during

the summer to attend mainly high profile one-nighters (potentially around 12 events totalling 78,000

potential visitors). As has been noted in the programming section of this report, there is a paucity of

shows available for large-scale theatre venues during the summer.



The converse is true in winter when events may be available but Scarborough reverts mainly to the

local resident population and the weather is frequently extremely cold and inclement. Even the SJT

reports difficulty in maintaining audience levels for its auditoria during the winter months.

In most theatres summer is the off-peak season, when local audiences go on holiday or spend time

out of doors. Autumn through to Spring is the traditional time for staging opera, ballet, drama and

musicals, producers specifically planning for these periods of greatest potential. There is little

evidence that sufficient numbers might be attracted to the Futurist to sustain the programme during

this period, taking into account the population numbers, the weather, perceived security issues and

the lack of parking facilities in the vicinity of the Futurist which might deter, in particular, the older

theatregoer in inclement weather.

3.3 The national benchmarks

The theatre and entertainments industry in the UK is thriving, despite predictions over the years of

decline caused by the competition from in-home entertainment, the rapid development of electronic

and digital technology and the change in public taste due to the recent television ‘diet’.

The Theatrical Management Association represents theatres of all sizes across the UK and collates

annual attendance statistics from its membership. The average percentage of tickets sold has

remained remarkably stable over the years since 2002, at around 59%. For the year from February

2009 to end of January 2010 it was 58%, perhaps reflecting the recession in a small way, but for the

three years from 2007-2010 the average was 60%.

53% of the total value of all tickets on offer was achieved in 2009/10, with the average ticket offer

being £19.30 and the average ticket yield £17.44. The sales by genre are interesting. Overall the

greatest number of tickets were sold for children’s/ family events (30% of all tickets sold in the

country), in particular pantomimes, and modern musicals (18%). The average ticket yield was

£17.44 with the highest yields being for musicals, opera and dance (although these carry the

highest costs as well). The highest percentages of tickets sold were for: classic plays (71%);

revue/variety/one person shows(69%); and children’s/family events(64%).

For statistics relating to large-scale theatres we turn to benchmark figures for 2008/9 collated by the

Theatre Royal Norwich from a consortium of 14 theatres around the UK which, although not the

largest scale venues, do average around 935 capacity. The average number of seats filled was

215,626 p.a. which was an average of 63% of seats sold, over 301 performances. The average

ticket yield was £16.69.

3.4 Specific comparators

Further examples of levels of attendance in large-scale theatres come from consultations we have

held with selected theatres. The theatres were chosen either because they are large-scale, because

they are in an area of lower population, are seaside resorts, or a combination of any of these. Some

have not been able to give us specific figures, due to confidentiality. Feedback from these theatres

is summarised as follows:

Sunderland

The Empire Theatre seats 1,982, It is near to the coast, but does not experience seaside

seasonality.. There are few tourists visiting the City and the trough period is the summer when

locals are on holiday. In 2009 the theatre staged 355 performances and sold 330,000 tickets,

averaging around 47% capacity. The local population numbers 280,807 and the majority of the

audiences (75%) come from the locality (SR postcodes). The theatre is actively trying to recruit from

further afield but with little success so far. The locals are loyal but during the recession there have



been less repeat visits, with audiences spending on the bigger first run musicals out of preference.

The theatre stages many new musicals which do well although they are harder to source. It stages

little drama leaving that to the Theatre Royal in Newcastle. Children’s shows do extremely well,

especially the pantomime. Comedy does “storming business”. Tribute bands fill a gap in scheduling

but make little money and the management worry about the lowbrow nature of the offering.

Eastbourne

The Congress seats 1,689 but is programmed alongside other council-owned venues including the

Devonshire Park (936 seats) which houses most of the drama. The Royal Hippodrome (643 seats)

hosts an end-of the-pier style summer show which does well and sells solely through hotels and

coach operators. There are no big holiday parks to offer competition on entertainment. The

population of Eastbourne is 89,667 and 50% of audiences are drawn from the local area. Other

attenders travel 30-40minutes on a regular basis. The Congress is the only theatre for some

distance which stages major new musicals (which run for 3 weeks); the nearest equivalent being in

Southampton (2hours drive), as Brighton Theatre Royal cannot take the larger shows. Thus

audiences can travel some distances to see musicals. Comedy one nighters do extremely well.

“Eastbourne loves thrillers” but new plays/modern drama doesn’t do well. Few ballets or operas are

staged. There are more families moving into the area, and also visiting in the summer, so the

market for children’s shows is growing.

Torquay

The Princess Theatre seats 1,491 and Torbay has a population of 129,702. It stages around 220

performances a year with a mixed programme of musicals, one nighters, some opera and ballet and

children’s shows. Torbay is a poor area and cannot sustain high prices, although there are a

number of affluent retired people. There are many holiday parks in the area which stage free

entertainments. Children’s shows can be overpriced for the market. The last year has been tough

and product has been harder to source. But despite this the summer season was good as more

people have been holidaying in the UK and resorts have benefited. Comedy sells out but tribute

bands and nostalgic rock tend to struggle. 45minutes travel is not uncommon. The nearest

competitive venues are Exeter and Plymouth. If events are going to Plymouth this eliminates the

market from the west and north Cornwall for the Princess. The Festival Theatre in Paignton which is

on the seafront, 3 miles away, used to be a competitive venue and seated 1,500. After proving to

be unsustainable it was converted to a multi-screen cinema, retaining the external shell. Apollo

Cinemas bought it and it is believed to do well. Parking was an issue here, as in Scarborough, but it

seems a deal was struck with a multi-storey car park 200 yards away. In winter parking is possible

on the promenade.

Norwich

The Theatre Royal, is situated in a rural area but, unlike Scarborough, it has little in the way of

competitive venues (the nearest being Nottingham or Southend). It seats 1,302 and has a City

population of 121,553.However, including the wealthier suburbs outside of the City, the total

population is 200,000. These and other factors, such as strong local authority support and quality

marketing and programming, means it is a highly successful theatre, with 78% of tickets sold in

2008/9, with a higher than average yield of £17.55 per ticket. In 2008/9 it staged 412 performances

and sold 484,436 tickets. It stages a number of musicals which do well and can attract them to the

theatre because of its reputation for good sales and excellent marketing. Other best selling genres

in Norwich are stand up comedy, which sells out, pantomimes and concerts. Children’s shows are

doing increasingly well. It is a large theatre for drama but hosts the occasional high profile company,

or those with big names, do well.

Malvern

The Festival Theatre is situated in an area of low population (Malvern Hills 72,196) with much rural

land around. The theatre sustains a year round programme and stages c.330 performances a year



in the main theatre but it seats only 840. In addition there is a flexible 800 seat space and a cinema

on site of 400 seats. Drama is the mainstay, the theatre being too small for big musicals. The drama

programme is lighter in the summer (comedies, farce) and more serious in the winter with Arts

Council No 1 tours. The opera and ballet (smaller companies) they get sells quite well but

contemporary dance does not. A quarter of the audience is local but travelling 40 minutes to the

venue is normal.

New Brighton

The Floral Pavilion, which in years gone by had as many as 3000 seats, now has a main auditorium

of 814 seats, with a population of around 70,000 (the Wirral is 312,293, and the Merseyside

Metropolitan area is 1,362,034). It draws mainly on the Wirral and Chester area for its audience,

although some will travel from Liverpool for specific events. It was rebuilt in 2008 as part of a

£12million redevelopment of the site, which includes a Travelodge and a multiplex cinema of 6

screens. Even though it is a smaller venue it attracts some big names including some of those in

stand-up comedy. It hosts some small opera and ballet companies, in addition to more popular

drama, tribute bands and light classical music.

Buxton

The Opera House has a capacity of 937 and the town has a population of c.25,000 within the High

Peaks population of 89,433. It programmes 430 performances in the main theatre and sells an

average of 50%, equating to c.220,000 tickets a year. In the summer months the theatre gets a

good rental from the well-known opera festival which attracts a very different audience; for the other

10 months it programmes a wide range of product, with occasional touring musicals, many one-

nighters, a few short visits of opera and ballet (by smaller companies), a great deal of drama

(although attendances are low on average), and a wide range of music. Big name stand-up

comedians sell out. The local following is good but many come from towns around 20-25 miles

away and particularly travelling from the A6 corridor. Competitive venues tend to be 30+ miles away

(Manchester, Stoke, Sheffield).

3.5 Market potential projections for the Futurist in previous reports

The market potential for staged theatre and entertainment in Scarborough has been examined in

three reports previously referred to: ABL, DJ: Spa and DJ: OAT. Each has approached the task in a

different way and each has extrapolated different market demand figures. We have quoted from

these reports in some detail in an attempt to summarise the findings and we have commented

where relevant. Market predictions based on lifestyle segmentation and survey modelling can only

be indicative of potential demand, as was also noted in DJ:Spa.

ABL

ABL covered three areas of market prediction: likely attendance data at theatre, concerts and

cinema based on countrywide lifestyle surveys; the propensity of specific lifestyle groups to attend

theatre; and primary market research conducted by ABL - street interviews and focus groups.

Likely attendance data

ABL provided market potential figures for theatre using data provided by Experian from the Target

Group Index (TGI), a national lifestyle survey of a large sample of the population; the survey results

are then applied to all areas in the UK. This type of predictive analysis can never be totally

accurate. There are many other local factors to consider including the propensity to visit certain

towns in an area, or the existing provision.

The definition of ‘theatre’ in this survey includes: Plays, mime, opera, ballet and pantomime and the

chart below (copied from the ABL report) shows heavy to light users. This predicts there are 18,565



people within 30minute drivetime who ever go to the theatre; and 48,107 within 60 minute

drivetime. These figures represent around 27-28% of the population.

However, the report then goes on to show other figures broken down into plays, classical concerts

and pop/rock concerts and appears to use these to further extrapolate the final market modelling. It

is unclear how these two sections relate and there will be some overlap between the 3 genres.

30 minutes drivetime (attended in last year): Play 16,695 Classical concert 8,681 Rock/pop concert 15,652 Total: 41,028 60 Minutes drivetime (including above):

Play 40,882

Classical concert 21,026

Rock/pop concert 37,622

Total: 99,530

ABL goes on to extrapolate a market model for performance attendance (see below) making

assumptions of an average of 2.4 visits per year (national average figure supplied by TGI). The

report assumed the 30 minute catchment would have an 80% market share (i.e. more likely to go to

Scarborough) and a 50% share in 30-60 catchment area. This may be optimistic as there are

several large towns with larger scale theatres near to extremes of this catchment (i.e. just beyond

the 60 minutes border). ABL also assumed 17% of staying visitors will go to theatre based on ABL’s

primary research. This seems extremely optimistic given the tourist surveys conducted by SBC

which showed a very low amount spent on all entertainment and the lack of importance of

entertainments in the decision to visit Scarborough.

The conclusion from this extrapolation is that there are 239,074 potential visits to theatre

performances in one year, an increase of c.39,000 (or 20%) which ABL takes as a positive

indicator.



ABL goes on to present a similar table for cinema which shows higher numbers of likely cinema

attenders : 40,491 within 30 minutes drivetime; and 101,667 within 60 minutes.

ABL has extrapolated figures for the numbers likely to attend cinema in Scarborough based on a

number of assumptions.

The total estimated number of visits to cinema in Scarborough is estimated at 214,338 per

year. There are no statistics on the number of visits to cinema in Scarborough (as distinct from

theatre attendances) so the potential incremental business cannot be estimated.

ABL’s final conclusion is that there is potential for 239,074 attendances to theatre and

200,000 attendances to cinema in one year. ABL notes that the current attendance at all venues

in Scarborough is approximately 200,000, including some cinema (e.g. Futurist). ABL concludes

there is “considerable room for expanding the number of attenders at arts events”. They confidently

state also that “more than 11% of visitors are likely to attend in future”, based on the fact that the

SJT estimates c. 60% of its audience are from outside the 60 minute catchment.

The writers of this report would question the validity of these conclusions. The potential increase for

theatre is c.20% of the estimated current attendance (and that does not take into account the fact

that current attendances include substantial numbers of cinema visits). Even assuming the

projections are a fairly accurate estimate the identified potential is not sufficient to sustain the vast

increases in attendance at the Futurist which would be required to sustain an economically viable

future, (39,000 additional attendances equates to only around 19 performances at full capacity of

the present house, and 39 performances at 50% (below the national average).This is further

exacerbated when related to the recent redevelopment of the Spa complex and Open Air Theatre,

both of which will compete for the audience share and, to some extent, programming. As we have

demonstrated earlier there is the potential for over 3million seating capacity in a year. An increase

of 39,000 attendances is insignificant.



Lifestyle classification

ABL also obtained Lifestyle groups data based on the Mosaic classification system. The identified

over-represented groups do not provide evidence of substantial potential numbers.

• 30 minutes drivetime (prime target area) Population 68,812

Main groups are:

o Ties of the Community (28%; GB 16%): manufacturing town communities and

close-knit city dwellers with unsophisticated tastes; also includes transient

populations of young people (may have interest in rock/pop, and cinema);

o Grey perspectives (24%; GB 7%): independent pensioners living in own homes,

relatively active; reasonable disposable means; time rich. Conservative in tastes,

may go to theatre but also like gardening, reading and eating out;

o Suburban Comfort (16%; GB 7%). Families in established homes; in their 40s and

50s; children growing up and finances easier. Fairly conservative; likely to be

theatregoers and cinema attenders.

We note that ABL did not draw attention to the fact that several groups, which nationally are known

to have a propensity to go to the theatre, are under-represented. These are:

o Symbols of success (2%; GB 11%): affluent people who can afford luxuries and

premium products; known to attend serious drama, opera and ballet

o Urban intelligence (0.2%;GB 7%): Young , single, well-educated with cosmopolitan

tastes; also attend the more upmarket genres

o Happy Families (5%;GB 11%):mostly younger age groups (with careers) now

raising children; although not traditionally big theatregoers, theatres elsewhere

report an upsurge in children’s shows which attract these sort of attenders.

• 60 minute drivetime: Population 171,628 (not made clear but we assume includes 30minute

population); covers large expanses or rural area. Main groups are:

o Ties of the Community (24%) as above;

o Grey perspectives (24%) as above;

o Suburban Comfort 12%) as above

o Rural Isolation (18%; GB 5%): over represented, not influenced by urban

consumption; lower incomes but own their homes; more interested in country

pursuits and less likely to attend theatre and cinema.

The under-represented groups are as identified for the 30 minute catchment above.

Market research

ABL conducted 300 street interviews plus 3 focus groups of users and non-users of theatre and

cinema (theatregoers were drawn from the street interviews and the mailing list of the SJT).

The survey notably does not go into any detail as to what sort of entertainment locals or tourists

might like to see in Scarborough but rather dwelt on current attendance at, and satisfaction with,

existing provision.

The street survey responses are summarised as follows:

Attitudes to Scarborough

Respondents were asked to agree or disagree with a rather odd mix of statements relating to

attendance at, and aspects of, entertainments provision in Scarborough.

• Over 70% agreed slightly or strongly that Scarborough has something for everyone and

there is lots to do in Scarborough but also reflected the seasonal nature of provision in

equal numbers: there is more to do in the summer.

• Tourists were much more likely to agree that the town has something for everyone and

that there is lots to do. i.e. those familiar with the town have a lower opinion of offerings.

Half of the locals, especially younger people, felt that there are not enough cinemas.



With such a small sample size (300) it is not wise to draw too many conclusions from sub samples,

however ABL commented that: Younger people are more inclined to think that going out in

Scarborough is expensive, are less likely to think there is a lot to do.

ABL concluded that to attract a wider range of tourist to the town, it will need to diversify provision

and increase its focus towards younger people, although it is not clear why they reach this

conclusion.

Attendance patterns

• 44% said they go the theatre (at all), higher than the potential predicted above (28%),

but only 31% attend theatre in Scarborough, much in line with the overall modelling for

the area.

• More older people than young people were likely to attend theatre at all and also to

attend in Scarborough.

• 47% attend cinemas at all (much lower than the potential attendance levels outlined

above (59%), and only 30% attend cinemas in Scarborough.

• The number of interviewees from outside of Scarborough is unspecified but ABL states,

not surprisingly, that more visitors than locals favoured Scarborough theatres than

cinemas.

.

Satisfaction with leisure facilities

• Although there was overall satisfaction with the leisure facilities, including theatre and

cinema, local people were considerably less satisfied than those from outside the area.

• There was more satisfaction with both theatre and cinema facilities than leisure

activities in general. It should be noted that no questions were asked about specific

venues. There was greater satisfaction with the town’s theatres as opposed to its

cinemas but again, as venues are not specified, it is unclear how the Futurist might be

viewed, given it offers both. What the term ‘satisfaction with facilities’ meant was not

specified and could therefore have applied to the venue itself or the programming offer.

The focus groups explored the satisfaction levels in more detail:

• There is a perception that the cinemas do not get first run films, although this is not

necessarily the case, and it is likely that the perception that the ‘cinemas are old and

run-down’ has influenced the perception of what is on offer.

• Both the Hollywood Plaza and the Futurist were seen as, run-down, cold and smelly.

The experience of sitting in a near empty theatre, with a lack of atmosphere, detracted

from the enjoyment of the visit. There was a view, especially amongst young people,

that there should be more choice and more new releases in cinemas as well as more

modern facilities.

• Older residents would like to see more family and musical films. There were some

requests for multiplex provision and the example of the comfort and enjoyment of this

facility in York was mentioned.

The most common suggestions for improvements to programming (in street interviews: not fully

reported) were:

• More rock and pop shows and more comedy, in particular amongst younger residents.

Many felt there was not a suitable venue in Scarborough for rock and pop.

• There is a lack of variety and quality in programming at the theatres. The exception is

the Stephen Joseph Theatre. The Spa was seen as outdated, tacky and lacking in

variety. “ … seaside summer shows for the most part and their day has gone… never

adapted to more modern audiences”.



• It was felt that though the SJT presents high quality plays, the range of drama in

Scarborough was limited with no real alternative. Other gaps in provision included

musicals, ballet and opera, however it was recognised that there might not be the

market for the latter. There is a demand for quality comedy acts.

• The poor quality and condition of the Futurist meant that theatre companies were not

prepared to bring product to Scarborough. “If I walked past the Futurist and I didn’t live

in Scarborough, I wouldn’t go in there because it looks like it is falling apart”. “Travelling

companies have stopped coming”. “…gone downhill”.

• Music was seen as something that is improving in Scarborough, in particular rock, pop

and folk, However, the main hubs were seen as pubs not theatres. There was felt to be

a good range of festivals.

Interestingly, the need for programming coordination between theatre venues was identified, as well

as the lack of modernisation of the venues (Spa and Futurist). Programming coordination will be

even more important in the context of a revitalised Spa and the new programming at the OAT.

Theatres and cinemas visited in Scarborough

• The Stephen Joseph Theatre was the most visited by those surveyed. 58% of those

who had been to the theatre in Scarborough had attended it (c.18% of those

questioned). “..the best thing that has happened in Scarborough for the last 20 years”.

Even those who do not visit, or not regularly, see it as a high quality venue. A small

number felt it to be elitist and too reliant on the plays of Alan Ayckbourn.

• Around 29% of theatre attenders had been to the Futurist and 25% had been to the

Spa.

• Just over a third who visit the theatre in Scarborough (31%) go at least every 3 months,

while 43% go at least once a year and 19% go less often.

• For cinema, the Futurist is the most visited (58% of those who visit cinema in

Scarborough) whilst the Hollywood Plaza sees 49% and the SJT 18%. Cinema goers

are more regular attenders with half going at least every 3 months and 30% at least

once a year. ABL points out that this reflects similar proportions to national

attendances.

Entertainment attended outside Scarborough

• York was the most frequently mentioned and favoured destination for both theatre and

cinema outside of Scarborough. It is just over one hour’s drive from Scarborough.

• Bridlington Spa (c. 28 minutes drive), Leeds (c.1hr 45mins) and Hull (c.1hr 14 mins)

were also mentioned by smaller numbers. Some respondents travel to Leeds, York,

Hull and even Newcastle and London in order to see large-scale musicals and pop

concerts or plays which they could not see in Scarborough.

Barriers to attendance

Main barriers included:

• The lack of parking in the area and poor public transport. Parking facilities were of

importance in particular to the older ages (especially 35-54), women and theatregoers

in general.

• There was also a concern for personal safety especially related to late-night

entertainment, although less relevant if parking is close to the venue.

• There was a distinct lack of awareness of what’s on in Scarborough theatre and

cinemas. This issue points to the lack of marketing which has been mentioned in other

reports. Good marketing is essential to maximising any market potential..



DJ: Spa

In the context of developing the Spa complex, including the Grand Hall and the Spa Theatre,

Audiences Yorkshire (AY) was appointed to profile audiences, establish the propensity to attend,

identify competitive offers and estimate ticket numbers sold and make recommendations regarding

the product mix.

Profiling of local and tourist audiences

Profiling was conducted using ACORN Lifestyle segmentation (ABL used Mosaic). Tourist profiling

used postcodes from 13,642 people who had requested information from SBC (presumably

therefore all UK residents). Local profiling was weighted to reflect drivetimes from central

Scarborough and the likelihood of attending events identified through lifestyle groupings(as below).

The TGI data from Arts Council England indicate the relative likelihood of different ACORN groups

to attend the different art forms and thus assumptions can be drawn about the balance of

programming that would most closely match the preferences and the potential number of

attendances for each art form.

The table below is extracted from the report and compares lifestyle groups by where they live (i.e.

tourists or drivetime distances). GB comparisons were not provided.

Tourists Residents 0-15 Residents 15-30 Residents 30-60 Wealthy Executives 6.4 2.0 0.5 5.0 Affluent Greys 13.6 11.7 23.7 29.6 Flourishing Families 8.2 3.8 6.4 9.4 Prosperous Professionals 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Educated Urbanites 2.3 2.0 0.0 0.5 Aspiring Singles 3.1 8.7 0.1 3.4 Starting Out 1.3 0.4 0.9 1.2 Secure Families 17.1 12.6 10.1 12.9 Settled Suburbia 16.7 16.8 27.9 12.6 Prudent Pensioners 5.1 8.9 0.6 4.4 Asian Communities 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Post Industrial Families 3.1 2.2 1.5 1.9 Blue Collar Roots 9.1 15.4 6.0 8.0 Struggling Families 7.7 11.9 14.8 7.7 Burdened Singles 3.1 2.8 6.2 2.1 High Rise Hardship 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.5 Inner City Adversity 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Unclassified 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.9

This shows higher numbers from segments which may attend theatre occasionally but not in the

greatest numbers (e.g. Affluent greys’, ‘Families’ (all types) and ‘Settled Suburbia’ whereas there

are few amongst segments known to be be regular theatre attenders (e.g. ‘Wealthy Executives’,

‘Prosperous Professionals’ and ‘Educated Urbanites’).

For tourist estimates AY has taken ABL’s assumptions of potential attendances (17% of staying

visitors and 1% of day visitors) which we believe is not representative, and is further predicated on

updated visitor numbers to Scarborough from Yorkshire Tourist Board. Their conclusion is a

potential number of 259,000 tourist attendances to theatre. This, in our opinion, is overly

optimistic particularly in view of the previously mentioned Welcome to Yorkshire Visitor Survey

(2008/9) which showed only 2% of staying visitors making a theatre visit, with just 6% attending any

evening ‘entertainment’ which included music concerts, gigs, nightclubs and bars.

For local attendees AY’s estimates are based on population numbers and TGI data (from Arts

Council England) which indicates the propensity to attend different art forms, using an average

attendance of 2.25 times per annum per attendee. The resulting estimate for attendances by

locals is 128,710.

The estimates below give an indication of the proportion of potential attendance by art form:



Art Form Percentage of Attendances Cinema 33 Plays 19 Pop/Rock 16 Classical Music 11 Jazz 6 Ballet 6 Opera 6 Cont.Dance 5

Taking their estimated total of approximately 388,610 potential attendances to ‘any event in the

theatre’ to refer to all of these categories except for cinema and rock/pop, AY indicates an

approximate total potential demand for ‘any event’ in a theatre to be approximately 188,610,

excluding cinema and rock/pop. They further estimate a potential of 80,000 for rock and pop.

However, the additionality is based upon an audit of existing attendances which excludes the Spa

and Futurist programming which represent the bulk of current attendances. We believe the

estimates are therefore incomplete and the ensuing assumptions questionable, a fact which

DJ:SPA addresses later in the report.

Competing offers

AY recommends caution when using TGI data which are based on members of the public’s self

reported arts attendance. Extrapolations to compare art form potential with actual programming

show that the provision in the town (at the time) is low in some areas and high in others. For

example plays have a higher ratio of provision to cinema, pop/rock and classical music. Jazz, ballet,

opera and contemporary dance have little provision. The market potential is highest for cinema

above all else, followed by plays, pop/rock and less so for classical music. Of low potential are

jazz, ballet, opera and contemporary dance, although specific numbers are not defined.

AY concludes that there is potential additional demand for cinema and rock/ pop music and

classical music. It should be noted that the Spa Grand Hall and Futurist presentations were not

included in the audit of existing attendances by genre and these conclusions may not be wholly

representative of the total additional demand in Scarborough.

Informing the programme

Arts Council England has a segmentation system called Arts Audiences Insight, and using the same

weightings as previously used for Acorn models. The following percentages show the proportion of

each segment represented within Scarborough’s catchment (up to 60 minutes):

Segment Percentage Urban Arts Eclectic 3.5 Traditional Culture Vultures 3.5 Fun Fashion & Friends 17.5 Mature Explorers 11.0 Dinner & a Show 20.0 Family & Community Focused 13.1 Bedroom DJ’s 1.9 Mid-Life Hobbyists 4.2 Retired Arts & Crafts 4.1 Time-Poor Dreamers 5.0 A Quiet Pint With the Match 8.6 Older & Home Bound 5.5 Limited Means, Nothing Fancy 2.2

This analysis shows lower than average proportions of the two groups which attend the arts most:

Urban Arts Eclectic and Traditional Culture Vultures. Higher percentages are shown for the ‘Dinner

& a Show’ segment, who are older and tend to stick to the tried and tested: rock/pop, musicals, and

‘Fun, Fashion and Friends’ who, as the title implies are younger (at an early career stage or just

starting a family) and, although expressing an interest in the arts, attend infrequently usually to

mainstream musicals, plays, rock and pop and pantomimes. It suggests the need for a programme



with appeal to a range of distinct audiences, notably children and young people, and those who are

attracted by more broadly appealing and familiar work.

In confirmation of this report’s other findings, AY goes on to suggest that the programming should

reflect the different potential audience profile and volumes in and out of season. It also stressed the

importance of considering the technical capacities of the venues within the Spa: even though there

are potential audiences for Musicals, Opera and Ballet, most of these will not be able to be staged

without wing space or a fly tower.

DJ:Spa’s key recommendations for programming in the Spa, based on AY assumptions included:

• Music (a mixture of pop/rock, classical/orchestral and easy listening/jazz).

• Provision for the dinner and show market

• Cinema and dance (where the technical requirements permit)

• Family events

• Comedy

• More festivals

The DJ: Spa report further concludes that, on the basis of higher visitor numbers than ABL

suggested and AY’s figures of potential additional demand of 188, 610 for theatre and 80,000 for

rock/pop, and deducting the existing attendances at the Spa and Futurist, the potential would be

additional attendances of 80,000 per year of mixed theatre programming and 18,000 of

rock/pop. They further assume that the eventual potential for the Spa would be in the region of 40-

50% of the overall potential i.e. around 38,250 additional attendances for the Spa. By implication

the Futurist would benefit from most of the balance.

DJ: OAT

The Business Case report on the Open Air Theatre was commissioned to satisfy SBC’s approval

process of the appropriateness of redeveloping the theatre and to provide an evidence base to

support an application to Yorkshire Forward. The document contains yet another appraisal of

demand for entertainment provision within the Borough. Although, we quote sections of this report

regarding overall potential for events in the town, it should be noted that the purpose of the report

was to examine the market for events which are staged in large-scale arenas and outdoor venues.

The report notes that: live entertainment represents a significant part of popular holiday culture at

English seaside resorts, although live entertainment does not usually feature as an important factor

in people’s decision to visit the seaside (Hughes and Benn, 1995). These views are supported by

the findings of Bull & Hayler, 2009, who found that most seaside resort locations believe live

entertainment is seen as part of the total package rather than a key factor in its own right. This has

resulted in programming in seaside resorts presenting certain types of live entertainment that no

longer enjoy mass appeal but are provided in the belief that holidaymakers expect them to be

present whether they are used or not.

If the OAT is to be perceived as a destination in its own right and able to attract visitors from outside

the region, the level of artists would have to be of the highest quality and the marketing would need

to target very specific demographic groups.

The Acorn based predictions of attendance at theatres as outlined in the DJ:Spa report (above)

have been reiterated here. In addition the projected potential attendees for rock/pop within 60

minutes drivetime is given as 199,000. ‘Beached’ which has been the only large-scale rock/pop

event in the town attracted around 30,000 attendees. Although it is likely that tourists may be

attracted to large scale events of this kind DJ say there is no rationale for estimating the proportion

of visitors who may attend. We would point out that the DJ:Spa report concluded that the additional

potential for rock/pop was only 18,000 attendances per year.



A second approach has been adopted to identify potential markets using different criteria (see

below). The potential markets identified have not been weighted by other factors such as likelihood

to attend or deduplicated against each other. DJ suggests that targeting of events will be crucial to

the success of the Open Air Theatre. DJ admits that these market assessments are insufficient to

fully evaluate feasibility. Assessment of the competition and a clearer definition of target markets for

different events is required.

Segment TOTAL No. Total no.

(APRs) TGI% segment

60 mins+ drive families 459,837 459,837 Mid-income 60 mins+ drive theatre attenders 944,472 44.8 423,123 60 mins+ drive 35-54 y/o rock and pop attenders 1,025,005 36.2 371,052 Affluent 60 mins+ drive theatre attenders 658,638 55.9 368,179 60 mins+ drive 25-34 y/o rock and pop attenders 495,064 40.6 200,996 60 mins+ drive 15-24 y/o rock and pop attenders 455,783 36.8 167,728 Affluent 15-60 mins drive theatre attenders 57,964 55.9 32,402 Family tourists 28,800 28,800 Mid-income 15-60 mins drive theatre attenders 54,809 44.8 24,554 15-60 mins drive families 19,622 19,622 35-54 y/o tourist couples 18,800 18,800 55+ tourists 18,800 18,800 15-60 mins drive 35-54 y/o rock and pop attenders 49,002 36.2 17,739 25-34 y/o tourists 8,800 8,800 15-60 mins drive 25-34 y/o rock and pop attenders 18,493 40.6 7,508 Mid-income local theatre attenders 15,922 44.8 7,133 15-60 mins drive 15-24 y/o rock and pop attenders 16,884 36.8 6,213 Local families 6,000 6,000 Local 35-54 y/o rock and pop attenders 14,830 36.2 5,368 Affluent local theatre attenders 8,343 55.9 4,664 Local 25-34 y/o rock and pop attenders 6,320 40.6 2,566 Local 15-24 y/o rock and pop attenders 5,750 36.8 2,116 Notes Pop/rock: TGI stats Any perf in a theatre: TGI stats 1 - Local defined as within 0-15 mins drive 2 - Families defined as households with dependent children 3 - Affluent defined as ACORN Category Wealthy Achievers 4 - Mid-income defined as Comfortably Off 5 – 60+ :Figures based on 60-120 mins (inc.as far as Wakefield and Leeds) 6 - Tourists estimated, totalling at ABL figure of 75,200

The relevance of the statistics in relation to rock/pop are of little value for the Futurist which may not

be able to attract the larger scale product of this type. However, there are some other breakdowns

of relevance to Futurist programming and these are shown below:

Locally there are:

• 4,664 affluent and 7,133 mid income theatre attenders

• 6000 families (but income level and attendance undefined)

• 5,368 35-54 year old rock/pop attenders (relevant to smaller scale nostalgia/tribute rock/pop

that is seen at the Futurist)

Within 15-60minutes drivetime there are:

• 32,402 affluent and 24,554 mid income theatre attenders

• 19,622 families

• 17, 739 35-54 year old rock/pop attenders

In the 60-120minutes drivetime there are far greater numbers of affluent and mid income attenders,

however there are also a number of competitive venues.



From the figures above we estimate that, based on a total of 68,753 affluent and mid income

theatregoers (the prime theatregoing targets) within the 60 minute catchment and an average of 2.5

visits (ABL’s benchmark) this would provide a prime potential total of 171, 883 visits per year or at

2.25 average visits (AY’s benchmark) the total would be 154,694 visits per year. These figures do

not take into account existing attendances, only potential amongst prime target theatregoers.

DJ:OAT, on the basis of attracting attenders from some distance for top rank events, considers the

competing offers for the OAT are:

• Arenas in Sheffield and Leeds, both around 12,500 capacity

• Major outdoor events in Dalby Forest (capacity 5,000); Castle Howard (15,000); Don Valley

Stadium, Sheffield (50,000 including 15,000 seated); Leeds Festival (65,000)

• Smaller scale music events in Scarborough, Hull and Bridlington.

Although the larger scale events are not direct competition in terms of product, they are targeting

the time and spending capacity of large numbers of potential visitors to the Futurist and other

Scarborough venues.

3.6 Summary of the market potential projections

• Currently around 200,000 people attend events at the main fixed venues in Scarborough

each year. Far more than this would be required to viably sustain one large-scale venue

alone.

• The most convincing extrapolation is reported in the Drivers Jonas report on the Spa which

concludes that, drawing on all potential attenders including visitors to the area, there could

be 80,000 additional attendances to any type of theatre event, and an additional 18,000

attendances for rock/pop. DJ further concludes that c.40-50% of these could reasonably be

expected to attend the Spa; therefore the Futurist would benefit from most of the balance.

• There is general consensus of genres which are under-represented in Scarborough and for

which there could be a market. These are:

o Cinema

o Rock & pop, and other events targeted at young people

o Plays

o Stand-up comedy

o Children’s/family events

o Classical music.

• Opera and ballet, as well as jazz and contemporary dance, are identified as being under-

represented in terms of provision, however potential audience demand in the region is

insufficient for these genres. In all reports, Arts Council data are used as a base and these

do not identify Musicals are as a specific genre.

• UK statistics from theatres, suggest there is a popular demand for:

o Plays

o Children’s/family events (especially pantomime)

o Revue/variety/one-nighters

o Modern musicals (although less so due to lack of product).

• Anecdotally, large-scale theatres report high demand for:

o Modern stand-up comedy


o Blockbuster musicals when available

o Concerts (light classical/rock/pop) when of good quality, but tribute bands are of

variable quality and yield little return.



• The dearth of touring product, and other factors beyond the control of Scarborough venues,

would indicate the genres with the most potential which Scarborough could fulfil (at either

the Spa Grand Hall or the Futurist) are:


o Children’s/family events.

• There appears to be great potential for improved and broader cinema provision.

3.7 The importance of marketing

TEAM, ABL and Drivers Jonas all identified weaknesses in the current marketing of events in

Scarborough. In relation to marketing, ABL primary research showed that there was a lack of

information about events in Scarborough and suggested the Council might invest in a local arts

marketing agency.

For any arts venue, especially of a larger scale, effective marketing is crucial to realising the

audience potential. Programming is absolutely key to the process, with quality product chosen to

suit the needs of the catchment population as well as venues which provide a quality visitor

experience but, if the marketing is ineffective and insubstantial, attendances and income will not be

maximised.

Investment in realistic marketing budgets is crucial but how this money is utilised is of equal

importance. Electronic methods of promotion are growing fast but every relevant means of

communicating with potential audiences must be employed. SBC has an opportunity to control

marketing plans for venues which it owns, however if venues are managed or sub-contracted to

commercial operators, this control is lost although financial incentives should spur commercial

operators to maximise marketing.

Marketing budgets It is noted that in the DJ: OAT report marketing is budgeted at £50,000 for the first year and £15,000

per annum for ensuing years. This is a very low budget and its sufficiency will depend on the high

profile and attractiveness of its programming.

In the ABL review of theatre and entertainments on Scarborough there are Operating models which

include marketing costs as follows:

Option 1

Retains the Futurist, improving its services and facilities, with some improvements to the Spa as

well.

Spa: marketing budget £25,000;

Futurist: marketing budget £90,000

Option 2

Assumes the Futurist is demolished and the Spa is subject of redevelopment with high quality

facilities.

Spa: marketing budget £90,000

As can be seen from the illustrations below, these figures are inadequate to maintain a high level of

attendances for sustainable year round activity.

In addition to their own marketing spend most theatres will have a clause in their contracts whereby

the theatre will contra a share of marketing costs to the promoter/producer. This can be as much as

50:50 matching funds from the theatre on that particular show, and will vary from show to show. It is

therefore a complex area and theatres account for the budget in different ways. Theatres will have

budgets for overall theatre marketing in addition to any specific show budgets.



Marketing budgets as a proportion of potential income vary from venue to venue, and often the

detail of budgets is not publicly available. It can vary from 5% to 15% or more of the potential

income (either box office or total income).

Some specific quoted examples of marketing budgets are: £267,000 p.a. (excluding contras) at

Norwich Theatre Royal (1,307 capacity); £131,000 p.a. (excluding contras) at Buxton Opera House

(937 seats); c. £700,000 (total spend including contras) at Sunderland Empire (1,982 seats).

Norwich Theatre Royal publishes statistics for a consortium of 14 large scale venues to which it

belongs (average capacity 935). The average spend on marketing per venue is £342,975 per

annum, excluding contra contributions, although with some theatres this will include marketing

salaries, with some it will not.



4. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

4. 1 PROGRAMMING POTENTIAL Futurist snapshot

• Despite serious underfunding over many years, and some serious physical production

limitations, the current management of the Futurist has been doing a good job in

maintaining a steady number of presentations over many years, which have satisfied the

demands of certain sectors of the population in Scarborough. However, the Futurist’s

current theatre programme is of narrow cultural appeal based almost entirely on one-night

attractions. (Page 3)

• It does not fulfil any of the range of cultural, economic and development policies of the

various authorities and regional agencies as summarised in the ABL report and does not

provide any real educational role which, although it may not be relevant to the

entertainments service offered, by implication may affect its ability to attract funding.

(Page 3)

• An attractive programme of appeal to a broad audience needs investment, particularly to

kick-start a theatre where the programme has run down over a number of years. (Page 4)

• Although it does have the benefit of a fly tower the Futurist’s existing physical shortcomings,

render it unfit for a whole range of live stage shows including drama, large-scale musicals,

opera and ballet (Page 4). These include:

o Auditorium lacking intimacy

o Small stage in relation to auditorium

o Negligible wing space

o No back stage get-in access

o Small orchestra pit

• There are many more cinema screenings at the Futurist than there are live performances.

In the six months from March 2010 there are 44 live performances scheduled and, from the

information available, up to 60 film screenings per month. (Page 3)

The national picture

• Receiving theatres cannot be viewed in isolation. Belonging to one of a number of touring

circuits identifies a theatre as a national touring venue and part of a group to which

producers and bookers will refer when planning tours. The Futurist does not fit easily onto

any one circuit because of its stage size and seating capacity, as well as its market

potential. (Page 5)

• The term ‘theatre’ covers a variety of genres. A formula for a balanced programme must

seek to be inclusive to ensure a wide scope of attraction and to mirror as well as lead the

diversity of public taste and interests. (Page 5)

• For a number of reasons although the touring industry appears to be healthy, there is a

national dearth of large-scale touring product. This has to do with:

o Changing taste

o Increased cost (Pages 5-7)

• The product shortage is particularly acute in the summer months, which is the traditional

‘off-peak’ time for non-coastal theatres but when the market potential may be greatest in

Scarborough. (Page 5).



Product availability

• The ‘touring-week’ had been the mainstay and economic denominator of large-scale touring

theatres for many years, however, since 2000, this has been changing due to decreasing

productions, resulting in an increase in split weeks, one-night attractions and ‘dark’ theatres

for part of the time. (Page 6-7)

• It is not easy to source large-scale lyric work such as musicals, opera and ballet. It also

requires considerable investment and can pose substantial risk to producers and venue

managements. (Pages 7-8)

• The Arts Council funds tours by large-scale touring companies, almost entirely limited to

opera and ballet. However, the majority only visit the country’s main conurbations and

indications are the Arts Council is unlikely to regard Scarborough as a priority for large-

scale touring. (Page 8)

• Large-scale drama has all but disappeared from theatres the size of the Futurist, although

there is commercial drama available for medium-sized theatres up to 8-900 seaters.

Summer variety shows have also decreased in number. (Page 8)

• There is an increase in the availability of children’s shows and certain kinds of one-night

event, particularly stand-up comedy acts many of whom are well-known from television.

(Page 9)

• The Futurist’s current configuration makes it a difficult “fit” for most large-scale pantomimes

which conform very strictly to particular circuits in terms of scale and cost. (Page 8-9)

• In its current configuration the Futurist is little short of handicapped. Many productions of

scale will not be able to consider it because of the stage house restrictions, or may find the

compromises to be made unpalatable. (Page 10)

• The theatre programming gaps appear to be opera, ballet and musicals of scale, however,

spending substantial capital on a different Futurist configuration will not necessarily solve a

programming problem which is not simply of Scarborough’s making. (Page 10 and 15)

• A new and attractive venue with state-of-the-art facilities back and front of house is only as

attractive to producers as consistent high attendance. Profitability not guarantee against

loss has to become the norm. (Page 11)

Comparators and subsidy

• It is often a long, hard and expensive battle to establish venues on the national touring

circuit. (Page 11)

• Most large-scale theatres require an annual subsidy to sustain them considerably in excess

of the subsidy currently provided for the Futurist. Some 2009 examples are (Pages 11-13):

o Blackpool Opera House (as part of the Winter Gardens complex): £1million

o Stoke-on-Trent Regent and Victoria Hall: £575,000

o Sunderland Empire: £391,000

o Brighton Dome and Festival: £2.2million

o A Theatre Royal Norwich survey of 14 theatres averaging 935 seats: £378,000

• In ABL’s budget model for a new Futurist the level of annual subsidy was considerably

understated at £250,000 although this does exceed the current subsidy level. (Page 16 and

Appendix 3)



Local venue competition

• As currently programmed the Futurist virtually duplicates the potential uses at the Spa

Grand Hall and the improvements being made in the redevelopment of the Spa are also

likely to have an adverse impact on the Futurist. (Page 14)

• The remodelled stage at the Spa Grand Hall will be of comparable size to that of the

Futurist. The programming that the redeveloped Spa will not be able to accommodate

includes large-scale lyric work: opera, with its demands on space and size (and finance);

larger scale musicals; and other productions which demand full height flying facilities.

Sightlines in the stalls could be a problem especially for dance productions. (Page 14)

• Qualitatively the Futurist’s current attractions are likely to suffer by comparison with those

planned for the Open Air Theatre. (Page 13)

• Coordinated programme planning between all main venues will be of paramount

importance in maximising potential.

4.2 MARKET POTENTIAL

Current provision & attendances

• There is an overprovision of seats in Scarborough, particularly during the summer months,

and especially with the addition of the Open Air Theatre to the inventory. There could be

3.3million seats available across all venues in any one year. This includes over 1 million in

the holiday parks/camps alone plus ad hoc outdoor events in locations such as Dalby

Forest, Peasholm Park. (page 18).

• Overprovision leads to competition amongst venues for both product and audiences, which

causes a lack of confidence amongst promoters and, when quality suffers, creates a poor

visitor experience

• Based on information made available current attendances in the fixed venues in

Scarborough total around 200,000 a year excluding attendance figures at parks/camps and

outdoor events.

• Total attendances at both the Spa Grand Hall and the Futurist are very low compared to

national averages. The track record appears to be better at the Futurist with some sell outs

reported, due to better programming. However, the number of performances offered (less

than 100) is way below that which could be expected at a large-scale venue (in the region

of 200-300 performances a year). (Pages 11,22)

Factors affecting attendances

• The population of the Borough is 106,243 with around half living in Scarborough town. The

low population number limits the overall potential market, especially in winter when there

are few visitors and the local population, many of whom are elderly, are deterred from going

out in the evening by inclement weather.

• Free entertainment offered at the holiday parks and the difficulties of transport, deter

visitors at the parks from venturing into Scarborough for evening entertainment. The

programming offer would need to be a strong one to motivate them.



• There are few, if any, large-scale theatres in the UK situated in areas of such low

population density. The capacity of the Futurist (2,150) is on a par with theatres situated in

large cities. (Page 19; Appendix 2).

• Much of the area within the 60-minute catchment is sparsely populated rural land, where

the profile of population does not show a high representation of those most likely to attend

theatres. (Page 31)

• There are competing venues just outside the 60-minute catchment area for Scarborough,

which attract audiences from this catchment (e.g.York and Hull), and therefore compete

with the Futurist and the Spa Grand Hall and further reduce the local potential. The nearest

venue providing major large-scale musicals, opera and ballet is Leeds which is c.1.5 hours

drivetime away. The distance might allow scope to develop audiences, however this would

only be relevant should product be available to a new Futurist configuration. (Page 19)

• Identified barriers to attendance in Scarborough (in various reports) are lack of, or poor,

parking facilities near to venues, poor public transport and poor venue ambience and

facilities, all of which are likely to have affected attendances at the Futurist and the Spa.

(Page 29)

• There could be potential to attract some cultural visitors with the right product and the

Stephen Joseph Theatre evidently does, however currently only 2% of Scarborough’s

visitors attend a theatre performance and 70% of those are staying in holiday parks which

provide free entertainment. The main activities for visitors to the coastal area are centred

upon the beaches and walking (Page 21). It can take many years to change the visitor

perception of a town.

Additionality

• Every theatre, and its location, is unique and predictions of market potential, based on

surveys and lifestyle data, can only be indicative. Previous reports have worked from

different bases and different hypothetical interpretations, some of which are questionable.

Therefore there is no consensus on a definitive market potential for theatre in Scarborough,

and by implication The Futurist.(Page 24)

• The ABL Report concluded that there could be an additional 39,000 attendances for theatre

(over and above the existing 200,000) which they saw as positive, but which is insignificant

in relation to the number of seats to be filled. (Page 26)

• More convincing is the Drivers Jonas report on the Spa which concludes there could be

80,000 additional attendances to any type of theatre event, and an additional 18,000

attendances for rock/pop in one year. This is based on data provided by Audiences

Yorkshire and uses higher projected visitor numbers than ABL. DJ further concludes that

the potential would be split between the Spa and the Futurist. For the Futurist this might

mean 30-40,000 tickets p.a. which would equate to only 18 sold out performances and be

insufficient to sustain a viable operation. (Page 32)

Programme demand

• Genres which are under-represented, and for which there could be a market, as reported in

previous reports, are:



o Cinema

o Rock & pop, and other events targeted at young people

o Plays

o Stand-up comedy


o Classical music.

• Opera and ballet, as well as jazz and contemporary dance, are identified as being under-

represented in terms of provision, however potential audience demand in the region is seen

as insufficient for these genres. Arts Council data does not identify Musicals as a specific

genre. ‘Plays’ are under-represented (Page 31) and, although the Stephen Joseph Theatre

successfully stages many plays each year, there could be a demand for plays presented by

commercial producers who would require a larger auditorium (although usually no more

than 900 seats).

• Overall UK attendance figures at theatres (page 22), suggest the greatest popular demand

is for:

o Plays

o Children’s/family events (especially pantomime)

o Revue/variety/one-nighters

o Modern musicals (although less so due to lack of product)

• Anecdotally, large-scale theatres report high demand for:



o Blockbuster musicals when available

o Concerts (light classical/rock/pop) when of good quality, but tribute bands are of

variable quality and yield little return (Pages 22-24)

• The dearth of touring product, and other factors beyond the control of Scarborough venues,

statistics on most successful genres in UK theatres, and predictions from previous reports

on the potential in Scarborough, would indicate the genres with the most potential for

development (at either the Spa Grand Hall or the Futurist) are:



o Commercially produced plays (but only in a more intimate space). (Page 34-35)

• More rock and pop would also be popular, however many of the bands require arena-sized

venues and would be suitable for the Open Air Theatre, not the Futurist or the Spa. (Page

31)

• Cinema has also been identified as having great potential in Scarborough (both in the ABL

report and the Drivers Jonas (Spa) report, and the provision of a multi-screen venue would

appear to be a favoured route. (Page 26; 32)

Marketing

• Scarborough residents have complained about lack of information on events. (Page 29)

Investment in targeted marketing, with substantial budgets, is as important to a venue’s

success and the realisation of product demand, as the planning of a varied and quality

programme of events. Large-scale theatre’s must maximise their potential with extensive

marketing. An average spend of £340,000 p.a. has been quoted.(Page 36)



4.3 OVERALL CONCLUSIONS

• Previous market assessments are insufficient to fully evaluate the feasibility of a

redeveloped Futurist Theatre and there are many factors to consider.

• The lack of programme investment over the last fifteen years has debilitated the Futurist’s

functionality as much as has the gradual dilapidation of its physical fabric.

• There is a dearth of touring product available nationally, including large-scale musicals.

• The theatre product with the most potential demand and which is readily available (comedy

and children’s events) could be staged at either of the main venues (the Spa Grand Hall

and the Futurist) albeit with a slightly different ambient experience. There also appears to

be good demand for cinema.

• There is no evidence to suggest that the retention of a venue of 2000+ seats would be

viable and sustainable, especially given the investment in a revitalised Spa Complex, with

enhanced staging facilities, and the newly re-opened Open Air Theatre.

• Any new Futurist offer would need to re-convince patrons as well as producers of the

security of its covenant. This is likely to prove as expensive to put right as any

refurbishment. There would be a major funding requirement from the local authority, not

only for capital costs of a redevelopment, but a substantial sum for annual subsidy.

• Should new theatre or cinema provision be considered as part of a redevelopment it is

recommended that a full feasibility study is undertaken.



Appendix 1 Futurist Theatre current programme for 6 months from April 29

th 2010 taken from its website:

April 25 Faye Tozer “Songs from the Musicals” 30 Billy Elliot the Musical: Take One Productions in association with Billy Youth Theatre May 1 Billy Elliot the Musical: Take One Productions in association with Billy Youth Theatre 15 Tap Dance Fever, A Spirit of the Dance production 30 The New Dorothy Dinosaur Show June19 Abba Mania 30 St. Augustine’s Summer Concert July 10 Saturday Night Live, Reece Lightning and Friends 26 Billy Pearce “All Laughter Family Show” 27 Chico’s Summer Party 28 Cannon & Ball meet Jake & Ellwood in “Rock with Laughter” 29 The Chuckle Brothers Show 30 Hit Parade Heroes – Jet Harris, John Leyton, Mike Berry & The Flames Aug 1 Joe Longthorne and his Orchestra 2 Billy Pearce “All Laughter Family Show” 3 Chico’s Summer Party 5 The Chuckle Brothers Show 6 Waterloo “The Music of Abba Live” 9 Billy Pearce “All Laughter Family Show” 10 Chico’s Summer Party 11 Cannon & Ball meet Jake & Ellwood in “Rock with Laughter” 12 The Chuckle Brothers Show 15 The Elvis Legacy” featuring special guest Alvin Stardust 16 Billy Pearce “All Laughter Family Show” 17 Chico’s Summer Party 18 80’s MANIA. Back by popular demand! 19 The Chuckle Brothers Show 20 Dolly, The Show. A Celebration of the Leading Lady of Country 21 One Night of Queen Performed by Gary Mullen and “The Works” 22 The Magic Mike Summer Show 23 Billy Pearce “All Laughter Family Show” 24 Chico’s Summer Party 25 Danger Mouse saves the World. UK Tour 2010 26 The Chuckle Brothers Show 27 Waterloo “The Music of Abba Live” 28 Ken Dodd “Happiness Show” 29 Jane McDonald in Concert 30 Billy Pearce “All Laughter Family Show” 31 Chico’s Summer Party Sept 3 Roy “Chubby” Brown. Adults Only 4 “One Night in Vegas” starring Martyn Lucas 17 “One Night of Robbie Williams” 22 Tango Passion – Argentinian Tango Spectacle 25 Talon, the Best of Eagles, Hotel California Tour 2010



Appendix 2

Table A

Some UK receiving theatres <1500

seats

seat nos. op. Pop.

Guildford Yvonne Arnaud 564 129,717

Poole Lighthouse 610 138,299

Swindon, Wyvern 617 Qdos 180,061

Oxford Playhouse 650 134,248

Bromley Churchill 785 ATG 7,172,026

a

Malvern Festival 840 72,196

Crawley Hawth 850 99,754

New Brighton Pavilion 880 1,362,034

b

Richmond 892 ATG 7,172,026

a

Darlington Civic 909 97,822

Eastbourne Devonshire 936 89,667

Buxton Opera House 937 89,433

Dartford Orchard 950 85,911

Bath TR 972 169,045

Brighton Theatre Royal 980 ATG 247,820

Canterbury 993 135,287

Belfast Grand Opera House 1001 276,459

Swansea Grand 1021 223,293

York Opera House 1032 ATG 181,131

High Wycombe, Swan 1076 Qdos 162,108

Sheffield Lyceum 1099 513,234

Plymouth Theatre Royal 1100 240,718

Cardiff New 1159 305,340

Nottingham Theatre Royal 1186 266,995

Hull New 1189 243,595

Wolverhampton Grand 1200 2,555,596

c

Blackpool Grand 1215 142,284

Newcastle Theatre Royal 1294 259,573

Northampton Derngate 1247 194,477

Norwich Theatre Royal 1302 121,553

Woking 1310 ATG 143,124

Edinburgh King's 1336 430,082

Birmingham Alexandra 1347 ATG 2,555,596

c

Milton Keynes 1420 ATG 207,063

Aberdeen Her Majestys 1446 184,788

Bradford Alhambra 1464 467,668

Torquay Princess 1491 129,702



Table B

Some larger UK receiving theatres

>1500 seats

Op.

stage size In metres

Seat

nos

p.o. ht. d. w. Pop.

Llandudno, NWT/VenueCymru 1500

14 8 13.7 15.6

109,597

Bournemouth Pavilion 1518

13.6 8.53 12.2 14.5 163,441

Leeds Grand 1550

9.9 8.2 13.6 n/a 715,404

Southend Cliffs Pavilion 1630 Qdos

11.5 (var.). 5.3 9.75 16.45 160,256

Southport 1631 ATG

13.4 5.2 7.3+thrust n/a 1,362,034

b

Eastbourne Congress 1689

13.7 6.4 11 15.2 89,667

Stoke-on-Trent Regent 1710 ATG

12.6 8.5 15.1 17.5 240.643

Salford Lowry 1750

n/a n/a n/a n/a 2,482,352

d

Ipswich, Regent 1781

11.8 7 8.4 16.2 117,074

Glasgow King's 1785 ATG

9.2 6.4 16 15.6 629,501

Reading Hexagon <1800

13.5 (var.) 9.25 var. 18 143,124

Cardiff Wales Millennium Centre 1848

n/a n/a n/a n/a

305,340

Oxford New 1826 ATG

13.7 7.3 12.1 15.24 134,248

Birmingham Hippodrome 1887

12.8 7.9 22.7 15.6 2,555,596

c

Edinburgh Festival 1913

13.6 9.2 20 18 430,082

Manchester Opera House 1920 ATG

11.3 7.6 12.8 14 2,482,352

d

Bristol Hippodrome 1981 ATG

14.6 9.14 18.3 22 380,615

Sunderland Empire 1982 ATG

12.5 6 12.8 16.8 280,807

Manchester Palace 2000 ATG

13 7.9 17 23 2,482,352

d

Scarborough Futurist 2150

10.87 5.55 11.28 12.87 106,243

Southampton Mayflower 2289

13.5 7 12 22.6 217,478

Liverpool Empire 2348 ATG

14.1 7 11.6 21.3 1,362,034

b

Edinburgh Playhouse 3056 ATG

14.9 8.5 12.7 22.8 430,082

Blackpool Opera House 3200

13.7 9.1 13.4 23.5 142,284

Spa Grand Hall dimensions (design) 10 8 10 12

Key:

managing operator op.

proscenium opening width p.o

height of proscenium Ht

depth of stage d.

playing/flying bar width w.

Population source: Office for National Statistics, 2001 census Pop.

a. Greater London Metropolitan area b. Merseyside Metropolitan area c. West Midlands Metropolitan area d. Greater Manchester Metropolitan area



Appendix 3 ABL’s financial model Part year operation The ABL narrative suggests a theatre which operates for only part of the year. It suggests that eleven permanent staff will run the building on a full-year basis. Two problems arise from this proposition: it is uneconomic to employ this level of staff on an annual basis for the number of performances suggested and yet it is questionable whether eleven is a sufficient number to actually service the performances as they happen. Unbudgeted costs Both the narrative and the budget exclude any charges for capital, property costs (including utilities, insurance and maintenance) as well as administrative services and supplies. Even a new building of this size and operated for the numbers of performances suggested is unlikely to find itself with a bill of less than £250,000 for all of the above excluding any capital charges. Shared and other services The narrative suggests that some services will be shared with the Spa Complex. Unless these venues share an operator, it is unlikely that an appropriate degree of co-operation is likely to be achieved between rival outfits to realise this. This calls into question the following functions which are missing from the Futurist Budget in ABL Appendix 6:

• marketing staff

• the finance function

• box office staff and system maintenance

• i.t. operation and maintenance

• building maintenance officer

• other central services provided by the Council

Other anomalies as well as discrepancies between the narrative and the models for budget and event income in Appendix 6.

Event income:

• No description is provided of “security costs”. It is therefore assumed that these refer to

security and other front-of-house personnel additional to those in the budget.

• 37 commercial hires are mentioned in the narrative but this figure has increased to 67 arts

and commercial hires in the table.

Budget:

• Even with an equal contribution from producers, the marketing spend to attract an income

of £1.7M is inadequate.

• Whilst the majority of casual backstage staff will be paid for by the incoming producer

£50,000 is probably an unrealistically low estimate for the employment of sufficient front of

house ushers to look after 155,000+ patrons over the number of performances proposed.

• The PRS estimate may be inadequate given the income suggested and the preponderance

of music in the programme.

The need for budget remodelling Without undertaking a substantial budget remodelling exercise and with so many potential unknowns about the future situation it is not possible to arrive at any firm figure about the annual subvention which would be necessary to run the putative 1800 seat theatre or indeed a new theatre of the lesser number quoted in Gleeds. However based on the above comments, and assuming the new Futurist would be a stand-alone theatre (not part of any group), it is likely initially to require between two and three times the sum per annum quoted in the ABL report exclusive of any capital charges.



Appendix 4 List of those consulted ******* Director of Theatre Strategy, Arts Council England ******* Producer, Cameron Mackintosh Ltd ******* Producer, Bill Kenwright Ltd ******* Independent Producer ******* Independent Producer ******* Independent Producer ******* CEO Theatres, Qdos ******* ex CEO Cardiff International Musicals Festivals ******* Head of Production, Ambassador Theatre Group ******* CEO Brighton Theatre Royal ******* ex-Director of Culture, Leisure and Tourism, Brighton and Hove Council ******* Independent tour booker. ******* Marketing Director, Theatre Royal Norwich ******* Marketing Manager, Malvern Festival Theatres ******* Theatre Manager, New Brighton Floral Pavilion ******* General Manager, Torquay Princess Theatre ******* Torbay Council ******* Chief Executive, Buxton Opera House ******* General Manager, Sunderland Empire Theatre ******* Marketing & Sales Manager, Eastbourne Congress Theatre ******* Executive Director, Scarborough Stephen Joseph Theatre ******* Tieline Productions ******* British Resorts and Destinations Association (BRADA) ******* Business Development Officer, Theatrical Management Association ******* Director, The Theatres Trust ******* Audiences Consultancy Manager, Audiences Yorkshire ******* Senior Market Intelligence Executive, Welcome to Yorkshire ******* Renaissance Coordinator, East Riding of Yorkshire Council Scarborough Borough Council: ******* Executive Manager (Entertainment and Conferences) Spa Complex ******* Tourism Manager ******* Leisure Manager ******* Arts Development Officer

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