summary of gyga achievements: ethiopia - yield gap gyga workshop 5... · 2020. 2. 27. · cv (%) yp...
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Summary of GYGA Achievements: Ethiopia
Kindie Tesfaye and GYGA Team
Global Yield Gap Atlas Workshop 22-24 September 2015, Addis Ababa
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Agriculture in Ethiopia
• Total area: 1.104 million sq.km
• Population: 90 million
• Agriculture is the major economic sectors
– 43% of GDP
– 80% of employment
– 95% of export earning
• 55 million smallholder farmers cultivating
– 15.4 million ha of land
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Heterogeneous Landscape
• Most smallholder farmers reside in the humid cereal-based highlands (59% cultivated area)
• Drought-prone areas accounts for 26 % of total cultivated area
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Cereal Production
Cultivated area (15 M ha) Production (28 MMT)
30% 20% 18% 18%
9% 4%
0
5
10
15
20
25Million metric tons
9.8
3.0 2.0 1.6 1.7
1.0 0.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Area (million hectares)
CSA, 2013/2014
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Productivity
3.3
2.4 2.3
1.9
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Maize Wheat Sorghum F. millet Teff
Yie
ld (
t/h
a)
CSA 2013/14 report
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Estimation of Yield Gaps for Major Crops
• Bottom-up approach – Delineation of climatic zones – Identification of RWS – Data collection
• Daily weather/climate • Dominant soil types • Crop management practices • Actual yield
• Data sources: – National Met office – Central Statistical Bureau – Research centers – Published and unpublished
literature
• Potential and water limited yields simulated
Reference weather stations selected
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Data collection at Local Level
Daily weather data
Actual yield
Soil data
Crop management
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Achievements in phase-2 • Refining crop simulation results for Ethiopia
– provided the necessary input data and feedback in improving the initial potential and water limited simulation results for maize, wheat, sorghum and finger millet in Ethiopia
• Updating reference weather station (RWS)
– additional weather data were collected for some of the stations for refining the simulation of millet and wheat.
• Sharing GYGA results on international conference – CIMMYT in collaboration with the core GYGA team presented
the results of the project from Ethiopia at the 2014 Water for Food Conference held from Oct. 19-22 in Seattle, Washington, USA.
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Achievements in phase-2 • Communicating the results
– Linking of GYGA website with EIAR and MoA websites-ongoing
– Yield Gap Book for Ethiopia
– Journal Article
• Understanding maize yield gap constraints in Ethiopia
– Ongoing project-strong collaboration with TAMASA and other projects within CIMMYT
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Implication and Application of the Yield Gap Atlas
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Actual Crop Yield Maize Wheat
Sorghum F. Millet
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Potential Yield Maize Wheat
Sorghum F. Millet
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Water Limited Yield
Maize Wheat
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Water Limited Yield…
Sorghum F. Millet
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Potential Yield Gap (Yp-Ya) Maize Wheat
Sorghum F. Millet
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Water Limited Yield Gaps (Yw-Ya)
Maize Wheat
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Water Limited Yield Gaps (Yw-Ya)…
Sorghum F. Millet
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Spatial and temporal variability of yields
CV (%) Yp Temporal Spatial Maize 12.3 2 19 Wheat 9.2 2 10 Sorghum 8.6 3 15 F. Millet 5.5 5 16
Yw Maize 10.3 7 30 Wheat 7.8 9 21 Sorghum 6.0 20 39 F. Millet 4.5 13 31
Ya Maize 2.5 13 14 Wheat 1.8 7 14 Sorghum 1.5 21 28 F. Millet 1.3 15 16
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Feeding the future population-closing yield gaps
8.1
6.0
4.5
3.2
5.7
4.2
3.2
2.2
4.1
3.0
2.3 1.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Maize Wheat Sorghum F. Millet
Wat
er
limit
ed
yie
ld g
ap (
t/h
a)
100% Yw-Ya
70% Yw-Ya
50% Yw-Ya
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Closing yield gaps…
15
26
18
41
33
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Current 70% Yw-Ya 50% Yw-Ya Current + 70%Yw-Ya
Current+50%Yw-Ya
Mill
ion
met
ric
ton
ne
s
Production
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Meeting the cereal food requirement by 2050
Population growth
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2005 2010 2013 2025 2050
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
ns)
Population Reference Bureau (2013)
Population to feed by 2050 by closing yield gaps
70%
162 million
252 million
50%
115 million
205 million
Based on FAO (2012) cereal food requirement (158 kg/person/year) for developing countries by 2050
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Annual rate of yield increase required
154
113
86
60
110
81
61
43
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Maize Wheat Sorghum F. Millet
Yie
ld i
ncr
eas
e r
eq
uir
ed
(kg
/ha/
year
)
70%Yw-Ya
50% Yw-Ya
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Past yield gains in Ethiopia
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Yie
ld (
t/h
a)
Year
MaizeWheatSorghumF. millet
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Summary
• Ethiopia has heterogeneous landscape, diverse farming system and fast growing population
• Ethiopia could support the cereal food requirement of its 174 million projected population by 2050 from land that is currently used for the four cereals if it were able to close at least half of its water-limited yield gaps.
• When viewed historically from the experiences of other countries during the green revolution: – the rate of annual yield increase required is higher for the 70%
Water-limited yield gap but within the range for the 50%.
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Summary…
• The yield gap atlas could be as a tool to prioritize research and development efforts in increasing the productivity of crops in the different parts of the country.
• Estimating the yield gap of the country’s remaining major crops such as tef
• Go beyond estimating yield gaps-identifying biophysical and socioeconomic constrains that cause the observed yield gaps for the major food crops and how these be addressed in contribute to closing yield gaps and ensuring food security. – understanding maize yield gaps in Ethiopia and Ghana
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THANK YOU!