Summary of Calibration (90% Deliverable)

February 10, 2009

AECOM, Inc. and A.D.A. Engineering, Inc.

Agenda

• Review flood profiles

• Summarize bridge overtopping and flooding

• Peak stage and flow results

• Flooding maps

• What if we had 1995 rainfall today

• Compare the SLCWP flows to 100-year simulation results

• Summarize problems and challenges

Surface Water Calibration Statistics

• Green is good, yellow is OK, orange is not good

Name Layer ME MAE RMSE R_Correlat R2_Nash_SuEstero R NB 3943.57 (EsteroRiv, 1202.000 0 -0.2197 0.2382 0.3010 0.8058 -0.4335Estero R NB Q 4443 (EsteroRiv, 1354.500) 0 -0.0785 0.1828 0.5216 0.5135 -0.2618Estero R SB 8628 (EsteroRivS, 2630.000) 0 0.0069 0.1683 0.2338 0.8394 -0.2044Estero R SB 8697 (EsteroRivS, 2651.000) 0 -0.0305 0.1353 0.4173 0.6111 -0.0655Copperleaf (Halfwayup, 2133.600) 0 -0.0237 0.0982 0.1165 0.9198 0.7710Halfway Creek S HW (Halfway_S, 2270.760) 0 -0.1204 0.1651 0.2074 0.8346 0.4351Halfway Creek S TW (Halfway_S, 2316.480) 0 -0.0317 0.1161 0.1384 0.8246 0.3583HalfwayCrDS HW (HalfwayCrDS, 3127.000) 0 -0.0201 0.0860 0.1056 0.9437 0.8537HalfwayCrDS TW (HalfwayCrDS, 3200.400) 0 0.0709 0.0994 0.1372 0.8722 0.4410Imperial_Orr (Imperial, 1230.000) 0 -0.1928 0.2115 0.3780 0.8724 0.5731Imperial_Orr (Imperial, 1245.000) 0 -0.0277 0.8398 1.7924 0.9080 0.8034KehlCan_9358 (KehlCan, 9358.000) 0 0.3305 0.4828 0.6445 0.6893 0.2775KehlCan_9479 (KehlCan, 9479.000) 0 -0.1107 0.1524 0.3200 0.8785 0.6473Spring Ck 1574.8 (SpringCRSS, 480.0000) 0 -0.0540 0.1012 0.1315 0.7655 0.4003Spring Ck 1637 (SpringCRSS, 499.0000) 0 0.0877 0.0924 0.1925 0.7284 0.2421

Ground Water Calibration Statistics

• Green is good, yellow is OK, orange is not good

Name ME MAE RMSE R_Correlat R2_Nash_SuCorkscrew Swamp -0.486 0.486 0.504 0.864 -2.599FP10_G -0.205 0.224 0.253 0.943 0.659FP2_GW1 -0.374 0.401 0.492 0.780 -0.141FP3_GW1 -0.213 0.228 0.258 0.925 0.545FP5_GW1 -0.245 0.256 0.283 0.945 0.569FP6_GW1 -0.235 0.257 0.288 0.943 0.585FP7_GW1 -0.196 0.232 0.276 0.938 0.619FP8_GW1 -0.251 0.266 0.297 0.944 0.607FP9_G -0.249 0.274 0.317 0.924 0.453Imperial 49-GW10 -0.428 0.457 0.511 0.901 0.164Imperial 49-GW11 -0.298 0.479 0.549 0.940 0.389Imperial 49-GW12 -0.234 0.354 0.401 0.884 0.399Imperial 49-GW14 -0.054 0.157 0.187 0.920 0.812Imperial 49-GW15 0.309 0.309 0.332 0.719 -3.287Imperial 49-GW3 -0.374 0.374 0.410 1.000 -4.969Imperial 49-GW6 -0.057 0.197 0.239 0.884 0.734Imperial 49-GW7 0.070 0.237 0.300 0.779 0.547Imperial 49-GW9 0.264 0.264 0.307 0.967 0.704L-1138 -0.162 0.180 0.208 0.816 0.083Leitner 49L-GW1 -0.228 0.325 0.370 0.802 0.288ST1_G -0.137 0.254 0.310 0.781 0.486ST2_G 0.039 0.188 0.226 0.878 0.438ST3_G -0.005 0.351 0.409 0.469 -0.683WF3_G 0.512 0.520 0.571 0.839 -0.895WF4_G 0.386 0.415 0.471 0.853 -1.039WF5_G 0.379 0.404 0.459 0.828 -1.020WF6_G 0.419 0.434 0.498 0.833 -0.780WF7_G 0.425 0.444 0.499 0.821 -1.006L-5844 -1.922 1.922 1.945 0.716 -27.558

Plot of Surface Water Calibration Statistics

#*

#*

#*

#*KehlCan_TKehlCan_H

Copperleaf

Spring Ck H

HalfwayCr TWHalfwayCr HW

Estero R SB H

Estero R NB H

Imperial_Orr H

Halfway Ck S TWHalfway Ck S HW

± 0 3,600 7,200 10,800 14,4001,800Feet

LegendMAE

-1 to -0.5

0.5 to 1

1 to 2

Flow Calilbration

R_Correlat

Rivers

#* 0.7 to 0.8

#* 0.8 to 1

0.08 to 0.5

0.5 to 1

1 to 2

Legend

Stage Calibration

MAE

Plot of Groundwater Calibration Statistics

• L-5844 is located on the edge of a ravine and the model elevation is 6 feet higher than the actual elevation, so calibration is off

• All other stations are either good or OK

Corkscrew

KehlCan

AlicoRdCan

BonBeach

Bel

lwes

t

Bra

nch8

4

LeitnerCr

Briarcliff

57-24-2

Hen

dry

Can

al E

xt

Ros

emar

y

Cor

kIrr

Can

1

DanielsRd

Cor

kCro

ssin

g 6

ML-

1A

CorkIrrCan2

CrossCreek

PenanzeCan

Cor

kCro

ssi n

g4

KehlCanExt

WF7_GWF6_G

WF5_G

WF4_G

WF3_G

ST3_G

ST2_G

FP9_G

L-1138

FP10_G

FP7_GW1FP6_GW1

FP3_GW1

FP2_GW1

USGS L-5844

Corkscrew Swamp

Leitner 49L-GW1

Imperial 49-GW9

Imperial 49-GW7

Imperial 49-GW6

Imperial 49-GW3

Imperial 49-GW15

Imperial 49-GW12

± 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,0005,000Feet

LegendMAE

-1 to -0.5

0.5 to 1

1 to 2

North Branch of the Estero River

South Branch of the Estero River

Halfway Creek Headwater and Tailwater Stations

South Branch of Halfway Creek Headwater and Tailwater Stations

Copperleaf Station in Upper Halfway Creek

• This station is located in a Brooks lake east of Three Oaks Parkway

South Branch of the Spring Creek at Old U.S. 41

Kehl Canal Headwater and Tailwater Stations

Probably bad data

Imperial River at Orr Road

Selected Groundwater Plots

East of I-75 and North of Corkscrew Road

East of I-75 and South of Kehl Canal

Overland Flow Depths, Peak Depth after Tropical Storm Ernesto in September, 2006

118000 120000 122000 124000 126000 128000 130000 132000 134000 136000

220000

221000

222000

223000

224000

225000

226000

227000

228000

229000

230000

231000

232000

233000

234000

235000

MzResultView1

09/06/06 00:00:00, Time step 245 of 1011

depth of overland water [ft]

Above 10.05.0 - 10.04.0 - 5.03.0 - 4.02.0 - 3.01.0 - 2.00.5 - 1.00.2 - 0.50.1 - 0.20.0 - 0.1

Below 0.0Undefined Value

10

Graphical Items

Color pointWidth point

118000 120000 122000 124000 126000 128000 130000 132000 134000 136000

220000

221000

222000

223000

224000

225000

226000

227000

228000

229000

230000

231000

232000

233000

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235000

MzResultView1

Summary of Calibration

• Good calibration overall• Some instabilities in the model for the Estero River and some

groundwater stations east of I-75• Spring Creek flow calibration not as good as desired, however

measured data for the split of flows between the north and south Branch are not available

• Calibration of Halfway Creek was achieved by adjusting irrigation parameters and modifying rainfall runoff process to account for stormwater detention

• The model is ready for design storm modeling, but as we will see in the next presentation, the design storm modeling uncovered some small flaws that are being fixed