suffrage and turnout pols 4349 dr. brian william smith
TRANSCRIPT
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Suffrage and Turnout
POLS 4349Dr. Brian William Smith
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Office Hours
• When– Today 11-12– Weds 10-2– And by appointment
• Doyle 226B
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Learning Outcomes I
• Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.
• Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice
• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process
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Readings
• Chapter 2: Suffrage and Turnout (Flanigan)
• Downs, Anthony. An Economic Theory of Democracy. Chapter 3.
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NON VOTINGWhat about the 50% that don’t vote
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Why Americans Don’t Vote
• Institutional Factors
• Demographic Factors
• Behavioral Factors
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Why People Don’t Vote:
Institutions
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Registration
• Registration is a large restriction on voting
• States control this power
• Once you register, you are more likely to vote
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Other Institutional Barriers
• Restrictions on suffrage
• Electoral Competition
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WHY PEOPLE DON’T VOTEDemographics
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Why Young People Don’t Vote
• Are Unfamiliar with the system-
• Are one step above Gypsies
• Have less formal and political education
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Traditional Demographics
• Race
• Gender
• Region
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Low Turnout Because of Behavioral Factors
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Low Social Capital
• Writings of Robert Putnam
• We are not connected to the community
• As a Result, we don’t participate in politics
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Low turnout because of partisanship
• Fewer People Identify with one of the parties
• Increasingly difficult to target voters
• Partisan districts depress turnout
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Mobilization and turnout in 2008
• Voter Contacts and support
• The Long Campaign in 2008 advantaged Obama.
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Campaign Contact
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HIGH AND LOW STIMULUS ELECTIONS
The Saw-tooth Pattern
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Presidential elections
• Why Higher
• What is the Result- the exciting saw-tooth pattern
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Midyear Tends to be boring
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THE RATIONAL VOTER MODELShould We Vote?
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Normative Democratic Theory
• The Classical View of Voting
• How We should Participate
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Rational Choice Theory of Voting
• When Should We Vote?
• Who should We Vote For?
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The Purpose of an Election is Simple
• A mandate for the incumbent to continue their policies
or• A call for the opposition
to Change things
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Our Choices are Simple
1. Abstain
2. Vote for Our Favorite Party
3. Vote for Some other Party Because our Favorite Party has no Chance
4. Vote For a Party at Random
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WHY WE ABSTAINStay at home
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Rational Abstention
• The Costs of Voting versus the benefits of voting
• The costs often outweigh the benefits
• The Result is many eligible citizens never vote (rational abstention)
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Why Abstainers are important
• Parties have no idea who is going to abstain
• Parties cannot ignore these people
• There are enough of these people to shift the electoral balance
• Their abstention often does not harm them
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The Problems of Abstaining
• Democracy Cannot Exist
• The costs of democracy are too high
• The benefits are too low.
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SHOULD I VOTE OR ABSTAIN?
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The Rational Voting Calculus
• C= Cost of participation• B= Benefit of voting• P= Probability that your vote matters • D= The civic duty term
C> PB +D We Stay At HomeC< PB +D We Vote
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Voting is Not Costless
• Time Costs
• Information Costs
• Monetary Costs
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Information Costs
• The costs of becoming an informed voter
• Learning who is running
• Understanding the Differences between candidates
• Information costs are especially high
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Time Costs
• Registration
• Travel
• The vote itself
• Ways that we have reduced these over time?
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The Monetary Costs of Voting
• Poll Taxes- Not any more
• Costs of not working
• Opportunity Costs
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The Impact of High Cost is Low Turnout
• Not all costs are born equally
• Those who vote less have less political power
• This prevents people from making the “wrong Decision”
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High Costs can deter voters, even if they have a preference
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BP +DBenefits, Probability of Deciding an Election, Civic Duty
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Probability of Deciding the Election (P Term)
• How Close you believe the election to be
• How Many People are expected to vote
• If no one votes, democracy collapses
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Does the P Term Matter?
• Some Say No
• Examine the Cumulative Effect
• We do not vote for the sake of casting the tie-breaking ballot
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Benefits From Voting (B Term)
• Direct benefits
• Policy Benefits
• Desire to see one side win
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Civic Duty (D Term)
• Democracy is the reward for voting
• If you believe this to be a high reward, you should vote
• It can be a long term investment
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The Rational Voting Calculus
C> PB +D We Stay At Home
C< PB +D We Vote