substrates and encapsulation for bipv
TRANSCRIPT
NanoMarkets Report
Substrates and Encapsulation
for BIPV
Nano-539
Published May 2012
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................1
E.1 Emerging Opportunities for Rigid BIPV Encapsulation? .................................................1
E.1.1 Glass Will Continue to Dominate .....................................................................................1
E.1.2 Advanced Encapsulation Systems Will Increasingly be Needed ....................................1
E.2 What Changes in Demand for Flexible BIPV Encapsulation Will Occur in the Next
Five Years? ..................................................................................................................................2
E.2.1 The Growing Importance of Atomic Layer Deposition .....................................................3
E.2.2 Trends Towards Advanced Substrates ...........................................................................4
E.3 Future Trends and Opportunities in BIPV Glass Encapsulation .....................................5
E.4 Niche Opportunities for Encapsulating CIGS, OPV, and DSC BIPV products ...............6
E.5 Key Firms to Watch ..............................................................................................................7
E.5.1 Glass Firms ......................................................................................................................7
E.5.2 Multilayer and ALD Barrier Firms ....................................................................................7
E.6 Reducing Costs and Creating Value in BIPV with Encapsulation Technology .............8
E.7 Summary of the Eight-Year Forecasts of Encapsulation and Substrate Materials for
BIPV ..............................................................................................................................................8
E.7.1 Rigid BIPV Substrates and Encapsulation ................................................................... 10
E.7.2 Flexible BIPV Encapsulation and Substrates ............................................................... 11
E.7.3 BIPV Glass Encapsulation and Substrates .................................................................. 12
Chapter One: Introduction .......................................................................................................... 13
1.1 Background to this Report ................................................................................................ 13
1.1.1 Flexible Module Encapsulation Opportunities ............................................................... 13
1.1.2 Rigid Module Encapsulation Opportunities ................................................................... 16
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report ............................................................................... 17
1.3 Methodology of this Report .............................................................................................. 18
1.4 Plan of this Report ............................................................................................................. 18
Chapter Two: Current and Evolving Encapsulation Technologies for BIPV Markets .......... 19
2.1 Alternatives to Glass Encapsulation: Metals and Polymers ......................................... 19
2.1.1 Polymer Films: How Costs Can Come Down ............................................................... 19
2.1.2 Metal Options: Steel and Aluminum .............................................................................. 20
2.1.3 Ceramic Films: Advantages and Disadvantages .......................................................... 21
2.2 Flexible Encapsulants for BIPV ........................................................................................ 22
2.3 The Dyad Option: Best of Both Worlds, But at What Cost? .......................................... 22
2.4 The Special Needs of CIGS and OPV/DSC BIPV ............................................................. 24
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2.4.1 CIGS and OPV/DSC in BIPV ........................................................................................ 25
2.4.2 Current and Future Encapsulation Trends in CIGS and OPV/DSC BIPV .................... 26
2.5 Key Points Made in this Chapter ...................................................................................... 29
Chapter Three: Current and Evolving Encapsulation Technologies for BIPV Markets ........ 31
3.1 The Limits of Glass Encapsulation for BIPV ................................................................... 31
3.1.1 Changing Requirements for Rigid BIPV Encapsulation ................................................ 31
3.1.2 Changing Requirements for Flexible BIPV Encapsulation ............................................ 34
3.1.3 Changing Requirements for BIPV Glass Encapsulation ............................................... 37
3.2 New Opportunities for Glass in BIPV Encapsulation ..................................................... 37
3.2.1 Opportunities for Flexible Glass in BIPV ....................................................................... 40
3.3 The Future of Plastic Film and Other Advanced Encapsulation Systems in BIPV ..... 40
3.4 Encapsulation of BIPV on Sheet Steel and Aluminum ................................................... 41
3.5 Encapsulation of BIPV on Other Roofing and Siding Materials .................................... 43
3.6 A Roadmap for Encapsulation in BIPV ............................................................................ 43
3.7 Key Points Made in this Chapter ...................................................................................... 44
Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts of Encapsulation and Substrate Markets for Building
Integrated Photovoltaics ............................................................................................................. 47
4.1 Forecasting Methodology ................................................................................................. 47
4.1.1 Information Sources ...................................................................................................... 48
4.1.2 Scope of the Forecast ................................................................................................... 49
4.2 Forecasts for BIPV Substrates and Encapsulation ........................................................ 49
4.2.1 Forecast for Rigid BIPV Module Substrates ................................................................. 50
4.2.2 Forecast for Rigid BIPV Module Encapsulation ............................................................ 58
4.2.3 Forecast for Flexible BIPV Module Substrates ............................................................. 64
4.2.4 Forecast for Flexible BIPV Module Encapsulation ........................................................ 70
4.2.5 Forecasts of BIPV Glass Substrates and Encapsulation .............................................. 72
4.3 Summary of Forecasts ...................................................................................................... 81
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report ............................................................... 85
About the Author ...................................................................................................................... 86
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Total BIPV Substrate and Encapsulant Revenues by BIPV Module Type ...................9
Exhibit 4-1: Substrate Materials for Crystalline Silicon Rigid BIPV Cells ....................................... 51
Exhibit 4-2: Cost for Substrates Used in PV ($ per square meter) .. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Exhibit 4-3: Substrate Materials for TF-Si Rigid BIPV Cells .......................................................... 53
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Exhibit 4-4: Substrate Materials for TF CdTe Rigid BIPV Cells ..................................................... 54
Exhibit 4-5: Substrate Materials for TF CIGS Rigid BIPV Cells ..................................................... 55
Exhibit 4-6: Substrate Materials for TF OPV/DSC Rigid BIPV Cells ............................................. 56
Exhibit 4-7: Total Rigid BIPV Substrate Material Revenues by Material Type ............................. 57
Exhibit 4-8: Encapsulation Materials for Rigid BIPV c-Si PV Cells ............................................... 58
Exhibit 4-9: Encapsulation Materials for Rigid BIPV Thin-Film Si PV Cells .................................. 59
Exhibit 4-10: Encapsulation Materials for Rigid BIPV CdTe PV Cells ........................................... 60
Exhibit 4-11: Encapsulation Materials for Rigid BIPV CIGS PV Cells ........................................... 61
Exhibit 4-12: Encapsulation Materials for Rigid BIPV OPV/DSC PV Cells .................................... 62
Exhibit 4-13: Total Rigid BIPV Encapsulation Material Revenues by Material Type ..................... 63
Exhibit 4-14: Substrate Materials for TF Si Flexible BIPV Cells .................................................... 66
Exhibit 4-15: Substrate Materials for TF CdTe Flexible BIPV Cells .............................................. 67
Exhibit 4-16: Substrate Materials for TF CIGS Flexible BIPV Cells ............................................... 68
Exhibit 4-17: Substrate Materials for TF OPV/DSC Flexible BIPV Cells ....................................... 69
Exhibit 4-18: Total flexible BIPV Substrate Material Revenues by Material Type ........................ 70
Exhibit 4-19: Total Flexible BIPV Encapsulation Material Revenues by Material Type ................ 71
Exhibit 4-20: Substrate Materials for BIPV Glass Cells by Absorber Type .................................... 74
Exhibit 4-21: Encapsulation Materials for BIPV Glass c-Si PV Cells ............................................ 75
Exhibit 4-22: Encapsulation Materials for BIPV Glass Thin-Film Si PV Cells ................................ 76
Exhibit 4-23: Encapsulation Materials for BIPV Glass CdTe PV Cells .......................................... 77
Exhibit 4-24: Encapsulation Materials for BIPV Glass CIGS PV Cells .......................................... 78
Exhibit 4-25: Encapsulation Materials for BIPV Glass OPV/DSC PV Cells ................................... 79
Exhibit 4-26: Total BIPV Glass Encapsulation Material Revenues by Material Type .................... 80
Exhibit 4-27: Total BIPV Substrate and Encapsulation Revenue by BIPV Module Type ............. 82
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Executive Summary
E.1 Emerging Opportunities for Rigid BIPV Encapsulation?
Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) represent an emerging opportunity for developers and
providers of encapsulation and substrate materials. BIPV comes in three flavors:
Rigid modules that integrate as part of the building skin or roofing materials;
Flexible BIPV modules that function much in the same manner as rigid modules,
but can be fitted to curved surfaces or are attractive for their being low weight;
and
BIPV glass, which consists of architectural glasses used in building construction
that have PV functionality integrated within them.
E.1.1 Glass Will Continue to Dominate
For rigid and glass modules, glass will be the dominate substrate material. The key opportunity
here is adding PV to the building materials, which enhances the final product, but is relatively low
in cost compared to the cost of the final product. For flexible modules, there are development
opportunities for new flexible materials with improved barrier properties to moisture and oxygen
beyond those commonly available today for integration of CIGS and OPV/DSC absorber
materials.
The near-term market for rigid BIPV encapsulation will be dominated by the same material used
in the rigid modules of today, namely glass. Glass will continue to be the king for the foreseeable
future. Compared to other options, it is inexpensive and provides a hermetic seal, and thick
tempered modules are robust to weather and wear.
Over the period covered by this report, BIPV and its associated encapsulation/substrates will
complete their transformation to truly integrated cells within roofing panels or siding materials.
Because the cells will be fully integrated and not replaceable without replacing the entire building
material, encapsulation such as glass will need to be thicker and tempered to reduce breakage to
meet a 30-year outdoor lifetime specification.
E.1.2 Advanced Encapsulation Systems Will Increasingly be Needed
BIPV also provides a higher margin market for both advanced absorber materials and the high
performance barriers and substrates that will be required as CIGS and OPV/DSC enter the BIPV
marketplace. BIPV modules that function as both a building skin and a PV module are an
example where encapsulation returns can be much more attractive compared to commodity panel
markets.
Currently, the encapsulation requirements are not that great for the c-Si modules and a-Si BIPV
modules on the market. As CIGS gains traction in the marketplace, however, BIPV tiles that can
create attractive monolithic high-end facades and attractive roofing materials will require
enhanced barriers.
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Rigid BIPV encapsulation: Four factors will be the keys to success for rigid BIPV:
Aesthetics,
Overall building cost,
Image, and
Product marketing emphasis.
The encapsulation roadmap of improved dyad-based or atomic layer deposition (ALD)-based
barriers will help enable three of these areas.
First, from an aesthetics point of view, advanced barriers will allow high efficiency thin-film
CIGS to be a viable rigid module absorber for use in monolithic panels of any shape.
From an overall cost perspective, CIGS-based thin-film modules will be lighter than
current options, particularly if thinner, laminated glasses can be used as the top
encapsulation material.
Finally, the ability to produce monolithic panels of any shape will improve the image of
BIPV solar from one of slapping ugly rack panels on walls or roofs to one of an attractive
building material that architects can integrate into striking building facades.
OPV/DSC issues and opportunities: One additional trend that will be seen as OPV begins to
ramp to volume and become used in the rigid BIPV space will be an opportunity for glass
manufacturers to add specialty coatings.
Already, ITO and AZO coated glass can be purchased to relieve module manufacturers
from the cost of adding these materials.
As time goes on, the extreme barrier requirements of OPV/DSC for BIPV applications will
challenge the barrier properties of glass. NanoMarkets predicts that it will be common for
glass substrates for OPV/DSC BIPV to be pre-coated with an ALD barrier before the clear
conductor layer, and this enhanced value material will then be sold to BIPV module
manufacturers.
E.2 What Changes in Demand for Flexible BIPV Encapsulation Will Occur in the Next Five Years?
New and improved encapsulation solutions for integrated BIPV products based on CIGS
absorbers will be the biggest change in the landscape for flexible BIPV over the next five years.
Currently, a-Si is the absorber of choice for flexible BIPV modules, precisely because
encapsulation solutions for flexible CIGS have not been available in large volumes in the past,
and are now just entering the market at a level necessary and at a cost point that makes
economic sense.
Flexible PV modules with CIGS as the absorber, and flexible CIGS BIPV modules, have been
"just around the corner" for almost a decade now.
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The initial factor that slowed development and commercial production was identification of
CIGS deposition processes that were manufacturable.
The second gating factor that kept flexible CIGS of all types, and not just BIPV, from
widespread adoption was the encapsulation/substrate question. While a-Si modules
encapsulation requirements for moisture are in the 1E-3 to 1E-4 g/m2/day range, the
water transmission rate for CIGS needs to be on the order of 1E-5 to 1E-6 g/m2 day. All
of the single-layer polymeric flexible solutions available that are acceptable for a-Si
absorbers prove to be less than adequate from a barrier perspective for CIGS and OPV
absorbers.
Grain boundaries in plasma deposited nitride and pinholes in polymeric films are the root cause of
the unacceptable barrier/encapsulation performance of present single-layer encapsulation. The
initial solution to this problem was the introduction of dyad barrier systems. These systems
combine layers of two different types of materials—generally a polymer and a ceramic—in
alternating fashion, typically for multiple dyads or layer pairs. The idea is for the ceramic to plug
pinholes in and slow diffusion through the polymer, while the polymer seals the defects in the
ceramic.
The more layers that are built up, the more the moisture penetration is reduced. Three or four
layers are necessary for CIGS PV. The high cost of dyad films comes mainly from the multiple
vacuum depositions required for the ceramic layers, and for the large number of process steps
that are added. Vacuum deposition requires costly equipment and high energy levels and suffers
from low throughput. Costs are similar to transparent conducting electrodes such as aluminum-
doped zinc oxide (AZO) for CIGS PV, but need to be done multiple times.
E.2.1 The Growing Importance of Atomic Layer Deposition
Because of the inherent cost of the dyadic solutions, alternatives are actively being explored. The
latest trend is to move from plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) systems with
many layers to Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) barrier films with one or two layers of alternating
polymer and inorganic ceramic layer.
ALD is widely used in the semiconductor industry to produce barrier materials. Two issues need
to be overcome, however, to make ALD processing economically viable for BIPV applications.
First is the deposition rate. As an atomic layer deposition technique, the deposition rate is
low.
The second issue is scaling up the process from one that is currently dominated by tools
designed for batch deposition on a 12-inch silicon wafer with few thermal budget
requirements to one viable for roll-to-roll (R2R) processing on low thermal budget polymer
substrates.
Recent work reported by the DOE and DuPont have demonstrated that a single 10- to 25- nm
ALD film deposited on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) at 125°C achieved 1E-4 g/m2/day barrier
performance for moisture. The films showed less than 2 percent degradation in efficiency of
CIGS flexible modules at 1,000 hrs in 85°C/85 percent humidity. The 85/85 requirement is part of
the international IEC61646 standard for package level reliability.
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The long-term trend for the encapsulation stack of flexible BIPV, in NanoMarkets' opinion, will
consist of a heavy weathering film on top, a thin barrier layer based on one or two ALD layers, a
thick polymer encapsulation layer, the active PV layers, and finally a flexible substrate. Target
materials include a 2-mil fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP) for the weathering layer, a 25-nm
ALD Al2O3 layer on a UV-PET encapsulant, and a CIGS cell on either a polyimide or steel
substrate.
For the encapsulant under the barrier layer, the trend is towards ionomer films and away from
polyvinyl butyral (PVB) and ethyl vinyl acetate (EVA):
The ionomer films in general show much better resistance to moisture ingress compared
to the other film types
Future work in the encapsulant area is focusing on optimizing transmission, UV stability,
adhesion, and moisture transport
The next generation of advanced ionomers is currently undergoing prototype evaluations
with both CIGS and organic PV absorber layers.
E.2.2 Trends Towards Advanced Substrates
For flexible BIPV modules, in addition to advances in barrier technology, there will also be
opportunities for advanced substrates.
Metal substrates: Metal substrates, which were the first widely adopted flexible substrates for
thin-film PV, will continue to dominate flexible BIPV substrates:
Stainless steel and aluminum are favored for their strength, inertness, thermal budget to
withstand absorber deposition conditions, and relatively low cost
Metal foils for flexible thin-film PV substrates also provide better encapsulation than
polymers for the back side of the cell.
Because of the temperature deposition requirements of CIGS, cost reductions and the
improvement of current stainless steel substrates are being evaluated. Glass-coated stainless
steel provides many attractive features from an integration standpoint:
It is thermally stable, dimensionally stable, flexible for BIPV applications, an ion barrier
because of the glass coating, and has good surface smoothness for subsequent
depositions
The latest generation of glass-coated steel also allows monolithic integration
Molybdenum back conductors can be deposited on the glass for growth of CIGS with
current deposition methods.
It will be exciting to watch the growth of BIPV modules based on advanced barriers and
substrates. The two most notable flexible, fully-integrated products in development are Dow
Chemical's new "Dow Powerhouse Solar Shingle"—based on CIGS PV cells from Global Solar
and targeted for volume sales in 2012, and Corus' steel roofing with incorporated DSC cells from
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Dyesol. The Powerhouse shingle was first on sale in Colorado in 2011 and sales availability has
now expanded to California and Texas.
These two products produce some unique value propositions and opportunities that set them
apart from current BIPV shingle and metal roofing products that rely on a-Si PV. Given these
initial forays into the market, NanoMarkets predicts that, over the next five years, overall demand
for advanced flexible BIPV encapsulation and substrates will jump from 0.53 million square
meters in 2012 to 9.4 million square meters in 2017.
E.3 Future Trends and Opportunities in BIPV Glass Encapsulation
Because glass is such a good encapsulation material, it is, and will remain, the dominant BIPV
encapsulation material, with new opportunities as BIPV becomes more prevalent in the
marketplace.
From an encapsulation point of view, the changes for glass encapsulation will be slight over the
period covered by this report, but from a revenue perspective, the opportunity is extremely
inviting. Because the cost of architectural glass substrates is high, the added cost of PV is a
small, but the perceived enhancement of the product is large, and thus the outlook for BIPV
architectural glass is extremely bright.
While glass is an ideal choice for many BIPV encapsulation needs, it does have some limits with
respect to the advanced absorber materials on the horizon:
For c-Si, a-Si and CdTe, its barrier qualities are more than adequate.
With the 30-year life requirement for BIPV, it starts to become marginal with CIGS and its
moisture requirements, and begins to require additional protection in the case of OPV,
where both extreme moisture and oxygen barrier requirements are needed.
For robust BIPV solutions with CIGS, and especially OPV, additional barrier protection will likely
be needed to be added to current glass substrates.
Transparent integrated BIPV glass modules represent another significant trend for glass BIPV:
For current transparent glass applications, a-Si is the dominant material, and glass as
encapsulant and substrate is suitable for this application.
Further out, OPV is likely to dominate transparent BIPV applications. Here, new coatings
for glass will be necessary.
Coating architectural glass is nothing new; what is different about this technology is the type and
value of the coating. Dyad films, for instance, will be both new and high-value coatings for glass.
Their adoption will only occur, however, if they provide the solution that is required to enable the
longer lifetimes needed for OPV to access this market.
Another trend will be in the area of transparent substrates for CIGS. An opportunity exists to
integrate a transparent back conductor with a work function high enough for use with CIGS
(perhaps micrometallic mesh) with a glass or a polyimide as an integrated substrate material for
use as part of a CIGS semi-transparent BIPV cell.
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E.4 Niche Opportunities for Encapsulating CIGS, OPV, and DSC BIPV products
While the entire market for encapsulation of BIPV CIGS, OPV, and DSC could be thought of as
niche at this point in time, within that niche market, rigid CIGS, glass CIGS and OPV/DSC, and
flexible CIGS for roofing and facades will be the dominant applications. For these applications,
the customer base will skew towards large office buildings, signature private and public spaces,
and large-scale roofing applications.
One likely niche area for encapsulation is heavy duty encapsulation for off-grid building
applications. The off-grid applications will require a higher level of robustness than normal
commercial BIPV, as the off-grid applications will need to function over the 30-year life span with
the expectation of no maintenance and likely in more extreme weather conditions than typical
BIPV materials.
Module weight is also critical in these off-grid applications, most of which are remote from divided
highways or paving at all. Many of these materials may need to be delivered by helicopter, and
therefore weight is a significant concern. Additionally, BIPV products type would be of a modular
variety to aid in construction at remote sites.
For weight considerations, compared to glass-based modules, off-grid encapsulation for
CIGS/OPV/DSC will likely trend almost exclusively towards flexible polyimide substrates, thick
ionomer encapsulation with a multi-layer dyadic ultra barrier with at least 1.5 times the number of
dyads as a typical barrier (UV-PET film). While normal BIPV flexible units are then covered with a
2-mil FEP final layer, off-grid application encapsulation would likely have a 3-4 mil final FEP
barrier.
Markets for such lightweight BIPV modules with enhanced encapsulation would be off-grid
homes, remote military outposts, and permanent oil and gas field operations buildings. One other
area where they may have some application is in regions of developing nations that currently
have no electricity.
An example of a type of product that may benefit from BIPV with extra-duty encapsulation is one
similar to Panasonics' Life Innovation Container, which is basically a cargo container with solar
cells that has been adapted to have refrigeration for medicine and cellular/Internet
communication. It has enough electrical storage capacity to maintain the refrigeration and
communications 24 hours a day. The Life Innovation Container is designed to provide some level
of electricity to villages in developing countries that currently have no access to electricity or
communications.
An issue with the solar cells in these units is that they are typically rack-mounted cells that can be
damaged in harsh off-grid conditions and can easily be removed/stolen. Transitioning to building
integrated panels with enhanced encapsulation for such units would be a means of providing a
solar cell that is more resistant to the elements and abuse than glass cells and, being a building
integrated product, would be much less likely or impossible to steal without destroying the solar
cell itself.
While not a huge market, this application represents a niche end-use for custom-enhanced
encapsulation for CIGS in the near term, and OPV/DSC very late in the period covered by this
report.
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E.5 Key Firms to Watch
E.5.1 Glass Firms
NanoMarkets projects that for the timeframe of this report, glass-based encapsulation will
continue to dominate. For this reason, opportunities for glass firms will be abundant, especially
for those that can provide significant improvements in getter/epoxy configurations, reduce weight
and cost, and improve manufacturing processes.
The big glass firms like Nippon Electric Glass (Japan), Nippon Sheet Glass (Japan), Asahi Glass
Company (Japan), Corning (U.S.), and Schott (Germany) clearly have the advantage in this
sector.
E.5.2 Multilayer and ALD Barrier Firms
Despite the apparent lack of progress in multilayer dyads over the last five years or so, their great
promise for reducing costs has meant that many firms have continued to pursue them. The firms
to watch are those that are focusing on reducing costs without sacrificing performance, such as
by reducing the number of dyads (or layers) required to hit the barrier performance targets.
In addition to GE, which makes its own (flexible) multilayer barrier encapsulation, the key firms to
watch in this space are 3M (U.S.), Tera-Barrier Films (Singapore), Beneq (Finland), Cambridge
NanoTech (U.S.) and DuPont (U.S.).
3M: 3M is pursuing bendable encapsulation films suitable for R2R manufacturing. The
company currently markets an Ultra Barrier solar film that is compatible for CIGS
applications, but does not have the moisture or barrier performance necessary for
OPV/DSC applications.
Tera-Barrier Films: Tera-Barrier Films has also been developing multilayer dyad films
with a development focus on R2R barrier coatings for flexible PV applications. At this
point in time, Tera's films have not been scaled commercially, but the company reports
that it is working with partners and customers in both Asia and Europe, and hopes to see
its films in commercial products within the next year.
The key differentiator of Tera-Barrier's technology is that it can achieve high barrier
performance with only a few layers, which keeps the anticipated costs low. Of course, this
performance is currently achieved using slow-speed sputtering, and it remains to be seen
whether Tera can translate its small-scale, pilot successes into faster, larger-scale, truly
low-cost production, which it hopes to be able to do using electron-beam technology.
Cambridge Nanotech: While the technical challenges of ultra barrier deposition in our
opinion tend to favor large multinationals with the capital resources to pay for fairly costly
development of both new tools and processes and wait for a payoff that is multiple years
down the road, there are some small companies that are successful today, and may be
able to expand in the ALD deposition tool space.
Cambridge Nanotech of Boston is one such firm. Even though it is small (less than 100
employees), it has delivered over 300 ALD systems worldwide since being founded in
2003. Most of these are small systems for university and industrial laboratory research,
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but its level of expertise in the area may make it a firm to watch as ALD for CIGS and
OPV become mainstream solar technologies.
Beneq: Beneq of Finland is another smaller company that has a presence in ALD. The
company has around 200 employees and is focused on ALD barrier and TCO materials
deposition. Beneq has introduced a true roll-to-roll ALD deposition tool. In April of 2012,
it received a €25 million investment from RUSNANO. Sales for 2011 were about €18
million.
DuPont: DuPont is actively working on ALD solutions or BIPV CIGS and OPV/DSC
absorbers in collaboration with the DOE.
E.6 Reducing Costs and Creating Value in BIPV with Encapsulation Technology
The key to reducing costs for BIPV encapsulation technology is twofold:
The first goal is to develop a manufacturable ALD process. Then, the ultra barriers
necessary for CIGS and OPV can move from the current dyadic systems with four to eight
depositions of alternating ceramic nitride and polymers to ALD barriers that consist of one
layer of polymer and one layer of ALD aluminum oxide. This move will be key for cost
reduction from a technical point of view.
The second goal is to move the ALD processes from the laboratory and prototyping
phase, where most are still batch depositions, to roll-to-roll processes on wide flexible
substrates.
The first step is to finalize on an ALD process for the ultra barrier and ionomer encapsulation
stack that is suitable for OPV and CIGS. Once this process is established, it becomes a matter of
transitioning from batch processing and developing the tools to take R2R deposition of such films
from current prototypes of over a few inches to ones with a width of 2-4 feet.
E.7 Summary of the Eight-Year Forecasts of Encapsulation and Substrate Materials for BIPV
Exhibit E-1 summarizes the overall market for BIPV substrates and encapsulation materials
through 2019. From a revenue perspective, this market is dominated by PV integrated in high-
end architectural glass. The value proposition here is that, by adding PV to expensive
architectural glass, where the cost of the PV integrated product is similar to the architectural glass
alone, the PV module that would be difficult to justify as an add on to a structure can be viewed as
a premium product for application to Green/LEED certified facilities.
From a new materials perspective, while the revenue is not as great as the BIPV glass space, the
flexible module BIPV space provides an economic model that justifies the development of new
deposition methods and processing equipment to support high-volume manufacturing of dyadic
and ALD ultra barrier materials.
The development of manufacturable ultra barrier dyadic, multilayer systems and ALD ceramic
barriers are both gates to widespread use of CIGS and OPV/DSC in flexible applications, as
these barriers are the only flexible encapsulation solutions on the horizon that have the barrier
properties necessary for providing CIGS and OPV/DSC with adequate protection against moisture
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and oxygen. If these barriers and encapsulation materials are not developed in a timely manner,
it could severely retard CIGS and OPV/DSC flexible module growth.
Exhibit E-1: Total BIPV Substrate and Encapsulant Revenues by BIPV Module Type 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sq meters rigid BIPV substrates Sq meters flexible BIPV substrates Sq meters glass BIPV substrates Total sq meters BIPV substrates Substrate Revenues from BIPV ($ Millions): Revenue from rigid BIPV substrates Revenue from flexible BIPV substrates Revenue from glass BIPV substrates Total revenue from BIPV substrates Encapsulation Revenues from BIPV ($ Millions): Revenue from rigid BIPV encapsulation Revenue from flexible BIPV encapsulation Revenue from glass BIPV encapsulation Total BIPV encapsulation revenue Total market for BIPV Substrates and Encapsulation ($ Millions)
© NanoMarkets 2012
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$ M
illio
ns
© NanoMarkets 2012
Substrate Revenues from BIPV
Glass BIPV substrates
Flexible BIPV substrates
Rigid BIPV substrates
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E.7.1 Rigid BIPV Substrates and Encapsulation
Rigid BIPV products are the "classic" form of BIPV; the first kind developed as a more aesthetic
way to mount PV panels on buildings. And they continue to be the most popular "off-the-shelf"
type of BIPV installed worldwide. We include in this category the substrate and encapsulation
predictions for panels that are designed specifically for flush mounting on rooftops for visual
integration.
In the near-term, the encapsulation needs will be less demanding for this type of module, as they
will be dominated by c-Si and use rigid glass for substrates and encapsulation. For most of the
period under consideration in this report, only one material, c-Si, will have significant penetration
in the rigid BIPV area. By 2018, however, all of the materials will begin to make inroads, with
CdTe rising to the second best results, with the successful launch of new products anticipated in
the 2012-2013 timeframe.
From a substrate and encapsulation point of view, the rigid module space is most like the
commodity panel space, and is dominated by glass with c-Si and CdTe absorbers. Because
these absorbers are the least sensitive to moisture and oxygen and are not required to be flexible,
current glass technology is more than adequate for substrate and encapsulation use. From that
perspective, there is less of a high value opportunity in this area than in the flexible module and
BIPV glass space.
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Total Market for BIPV Substrates and Encapsulation
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Later in the reporting period, there will be some volumes of CIGS and a little of OPV/DSC, which
will need improved encapsulation technologies. Within the next few years, CIGS PV will begin to
target the rigid BIPV market in a meaningful way, beginning with flush panels that overlay existing
roofing. CIGS will require some of the more advanced dyad and ALD barrier and encapsulation
technologies that will be used in higher volumes for flexible modules and will represent an
opportunity for advanced encapsulation manufacturers.
E.7.2 Flexible BIPV Encapsulation and Substrates
Flexible BIPV products are the newest type of BIPV on the scene, and in many ways the most
exotic. Because of their flexible nature, standard glass is not a viable substrate or encapsulation
material. Flexible BIPV, therefore, is an area where the biggest opportunities are from the
perspective of developing and integrating new encapsulation and substrate materials.
While current flexible substrate and encapsulation options are relatively expensive compared to
commodity panels, which limits their attractiveness as standalone options, when flexible PV is
integrated in building materials, the cost is less of the overall bill of materials, and thus is
attractive where flexible building materials can be taken advantage of, as in the case of roofing
and siding/facade construction materials.
While part of the appeal of flexible BIPV products is their novelty, they also provide more
fundamental benefits:
Resiliency,
Compatibility with many types of building materials that are inherently flexible
The ability to be delivered and installed in long strips or rolls without the risk of breakage.
In the near term, flexible modules that can be rolled out on flat roofs will be an early market.
Shingles with integrated PV is also an area where several manufacturers are introducing
products.
We have reduced our initial volume forecasts for fully-integrated flexible BIPV products compared
to last year's forecasts because of continued poor construction markets; the standalone
laminates—better suited to retrofits—have taken up some of the slack. However, later in the
forecast period, we have increased our projections for volumes of the fully-integrated products, in
large part because CIGS PV products are looking more serious.
The most rapid growth opportunities here are for the CIGS and DSC PV technologies. CdTe PV
may also turn toward flexible BIPV, although it will be the last of the three BIPV routes that the
industry will take. However, if First Solar chooses to get into the flexible BIPV space, such a move
would dramatically alter the current forecast.
Among the flexible thin-films, CIGS BIPV laminates and shingles appear best positioned in the
market. Also of note is the trend toward using building materials as actual flexible substrates for
BIPV, led by DSC maker Dyesol and its partner Corus. Corus was a major German steel
company that was acquired by Tata Corp., and lends substantial weight to the prospects for this
standing-seam roofing project.
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One other thing that needs to happen in order for BIPV and the underlying substrate materials
suppliers to be successful is some modification of UL1703, which currently requires retesting of
every different-sized module, and is currently an impediment to manufacturing custom-sized
modules for covering building facades of different sizes and shapes.
E.7.3 BIPV Glass Encapsulation and Substrates
The market for glass-based BIPV substrates will grow tremendously over the next eight years, as
incentives grow for green certifications, and as the standards for achieving them become more
demanding. Current encapsulation is not a challenge, with current glass and polymer solutions
being more than adequate to encapsulate current c-Si and a-Si BIPV glass modules.
While c-Si dominates the market, thin-film silicon will experience steady growth, but CIGS, CdTe
and OPV/DSC really won't hit their stride in this space until about the 2014-2015 timeframe, due
to the development costs of ultra barriers in the case of CIGS, and both absorber development
and barrier development in the case of OPV/DSC.
For the forecasts to be realized for CIGS and OPV/DSC, there is still work to be done both in
process development and equipment development for the manufacture of high volumes of dyadic
and/or ALD ultra barriers on large substrates. While the revenue for emerging advanced barriers
and substrates compared to the glass substrates is not large, when one looks at the overall
demand for CIGS and OPV ultra barriers for both BIPV and non-BIPV applications, the value
proposition for the development of high volume processes for depositing these films becomes
quite attractive.
In addition to the encapsulation needs for CIGS, for transparent modules to flourish, CIGS back
conductors will need to transition from molybdenum as the industry standard for the back contact
to a transparent back conductor that will allow transparent module integration. OPV and DSC are
likely to see some action in the BIPV glass market segment, precisely because they will be first to
produce truly transparent BIPV glass.
To obtain a full copy of this report please contact NanoMarkets at [email protected]
or via telephone at (804) 938-0030 or visit us at www.nanomarkets.net.