MED-CSPMED-CSP

Study Project MED-CSP

Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region

Project for the Research & Development Programme of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)

IFEED

NREA

MED-CSPMED-CSP

Bringing Renewable Energies to Work

Renewable Energy Resource Assessment

Power Demand Assessment

Sustainable National Energy Scenarios

National Guidelines to Initiate and Follow that Path

Data Base for Decision Making

MED-CSPMED-CSP

Countries analysed within the MED-CSP Study and total EU-MENA Region

Southern Europe

Western Asia

Arabian Peninsula

North Africa

MED-CSPMED-CSP

Sustainability Dynamic Stability

“development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” /Brundtland 1987/

What we need: What we have:

Environmental Sustainability Environmental Damages

Economical Sustainability Increasing Subsidies

Social Sustainability Increasing Conflicts

Institutional Sustainability Insufficient Policies

MED-CSPMED-CSP

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

World Spain Portugal Morocco Spain, Portugal+ Morocco

EU15

t CO

2/ca

pita

19902002Obligation 2008-2012 (EU)Obligation Industrialized Countries 2020 (Proposal WBGU, 2003)

World wide obligationin 2050 (proposed byWBGU, 2003)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

World Spain Portugal Morocco Spain, Portugal+ Morocco

EU15

t CO

2/ca

pita

19902002Obligation 2008-2012 (EU)Obligation Industrialized Countries 2020 (Proposal WBGU, 2003)

World wide obligationin 2050 (proposed byWBGU, 2003)

Environmental Sustainability Challenge: Climate Change

MED-CSPMED-CSP

2002

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

92

90

Year

1990

GH

G E

mis

sion

s = 1

00

Business asusual

with existingpolicies

with additionalpolicies

Kyoto targetpath

Institutional Sustainability Challenge: Greenhouse gas emissions until 2002 and projections until 2010 indicate Insufficient Policies even in the EU 15

MED-CSPMED-CSPSocial Sustainability Challenge: Growing Electricity Demand in MENA

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Gro

ss E

lect

ricity

Con

sum

ptio

n TW

h/a

TurkeySpainPortugalMaltaItalyGreeceTunisiaMoroccoLibyaEgyptAlgeriaYemenUAESyriaSaudi ArabiaQatarOmanLebanonKuwaitJordanIsraelIraqIranCyprusBahrain

Scenario Closing the Gap / High Efficiency

Historical Data

First Slowdown: Efficiency Gains & Liberalisation

Second Slowdown: Demand Stabilisation

MED-CSPMED-CSPDriving Force Population Growth

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

[mill

ion]

North AfricaWestern AsiaArabian PeninsulaSouthern Europe

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

2050

Year

Popu

latio

n [m

illio

ns]

UrbanRural

Source: United Nations Intermediate Growth Scenario /FAO 2004/

MED-CSPMED-CSPDriving Forces: Growth of Economy. Closing the Gap of per Capita GDP with USA by 2050 by 50%

Southern Europe (CG/HE)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Portugal

Spain

Italy

Malta

Greece

Cyprus

Average GDP Growth Rates 2003 - 2050 [%/cap/y]

Arabian Peninsula (CG/HE)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Oman

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi-Arabia

UAE

Yemen

Bahrain

Average GDP Growth Rate 2003 - 2050 [%/cap/y]

Western Asia (CG/HE)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Israel

Jordan

Lebanon

Syria

Turkey

Iraq

Iran

Average GDP Growth Rate 2003 - 2050 [%/cap/y]

North Africa (CG/HE)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Morocco

Algeria

Tunesia

Libya

Egypt

Average GDP Growth Rate 2003 - 2050 [%/cap/y]

MED-CSPMED-CSP Driving Force Economic Growth:Correlation and Extrapolation of Total Final Electricity Consumption per capita and GDP per capita for a Sample of 25 (150) Countries

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1 10 100

1960

19802000

20202040

Ele

ctric

ity/C

apita

[kW

h/ca

p]

GDP/Capita [1000 US$ 1996 PPP]

MED-CSPMED-CSP

Per Capita Power Consumption in EU-MENA in the MED-CSP Scenario

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

2050

Year

Elec

tric

ity D

eman

d [k

Wh/

capi

ta/y

]

North Africa

Western Asia

Arabian Peninsula

Southern EuropeanCountries

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Fres

hwat

er D

eman

d [B

m³/y

]

IranIraqSyriaTurkeyLebanonJordanIsraelKuwaitYemenUAEBahrainSaudi ArabiaQatarOmanMoroccoLibyaTunisiaEgypt Algeria

Social Sustainability Challenge: Growing Freshwater Demand in the MENA countries

MED-CSPMED-CSP

Social Sustainability Challenge:Agriculture vs. Industrial Development in MENA

Water Demand in MENA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

2050

Year

Fres

hwat

er D

eman

d [b

illio

n m

³/y]

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

Agricultural Domestic Industrial Sustainable Water

grows with population

growths with GDP

MED-CSPMED-CSP

Population in Egypt

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Popu

latio

n [m

illio

ns]

UrbanRural

Water Demand in Egypt

Agricultural

DomesticIndustrial

Sustainable Water

020406080

100120140160180

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

2050

Wat

er D

eman

d [b

illio

n m

³/y]

0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00

MED-CSPMED-CSP

Groundwater w ithdrawals as percentage of safe yield

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%

Cyprus

Morocco

Tunisia

Algeria

Oman

UAE

Syria

Yemen

J ordan

Bahrain

Gaza

Qatar

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia 1456%

1275%

Source: Saghiri 2003

Social & Environmental Sustainability Challenge: Growing Freshwater Deficits

MED-CSPMED-CSP

cent

/kW

h

additionalexternalsocietal cost

desirable

cost of CO2-sequestration

Economic Sustainability Challenge: Cost of Electricity from Nuclear Energy, Coal & Gas

MED-CSPMED-CSP

b) Municipal Sector

Economic Sustainability Challenge:Water pricing in the MENA Region /Saghir 2003/

a) Irrigation Sector0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Cyprus Algeria Tunisia J ordan

Average Production CostAverage Price

Source: SARs and BORs. The World Bank

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Cyprus Algeria Tunisia J ordan

Average Production CostAverage Price

Source: SARs and BORs. The World Bank

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Cyprus(Nicosia)

Algeria J ordan Tunisia Morocco Turkey(Bursi)

Malta

Average Production CostAverage Price

Source: SARs and BORs. The World Bank

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Cyprus(Nicosia)

Algeria J ordan Tunisia Morocco Turkey(Bursi)

Malta

Average Production CostAverage Price

Source: SARs and BORs. The World Bank

Dol

lars

per

cub

ic m

eter

Dol

lars

per

cub

ic

met

er

desirable long term cost level

MED-CSPMED-CSP

Economic Sustainability Challenge:

MED-CSPMED-CSPEconomic Sustainability Challenge:

Coal Price Index in $/ton

06.2001 06.200406.2002 06.2003

Source: globalCOAL

MED-CSPMED-CSP

Source: cameco

Economic Sustainability Challenge:

Uranium Price Index in $/lb

MED-CSPMED-CSP

Guidelines for Sustainability in the Energy Sector. satisfied

Equality of access no

Conservation of resources no

Compatibility with environment, climate and health no

Social compatibility ltd.

Low risk and high error tolerance ltd.

Comprehensive economic efficiency no

Meet the need of supply at any time ltd.

International co-operation ltd.

Source: BMU

MED-CSPMED-CSP

Main Results of the MED-CSP Demand Assessment

The present energy system is not sustainable and will lead to a critical situation in terms of economical, social and environmental stability.

The demand for energy will grow by three times until 2050, water demand will almost double in the EU-MENA region.

Fossil and nuclear energy sources have triggered economic development in the North Western Hemisphere, but do not have the capacity to do the same for the rest of the world.

MED-CSPMED-CSP

MED-CSP Team

German Aerospace Center (DLR) Dr. Franz Trieb, Dr. Christoph Schillings, Stefan Kronshage, Dr. Uwe Klann, Dr. Peter Viebahn, Nadine May, Regina Wilde, Christian Paul, Stuttgart, Germany National Energy Research Center (NERC) Eng. Malek Kabariti, Amman, Jordan

Centre National pour la Recherche Scientifique et Technique (CNRST) Prof. Dr. Abdelaziz Bennouna, Rabat, Morocco

Nokraschy Engineering GmbH (NE)Dr. Ing. Hani El Nokraschy, Holm, Germany

New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA)Ms. Laila Georgy Yussef, Cairo, Egypt

New Energy Algeria (NEAL) Tewfik Hasni, Alger, Algeria

Internationales Forschungszentrum für Erneuerbare Energien e.V. (IFEED)Dr. Nasir El Bassam, Braunschweig, Germany

Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA)Honorat Satoguina, Hamburg, Germany

MED-CSPMED-CSP

Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region

WP0: Introduction

WP1: Sustainability Goals

WP2: Renewable Energy Technologies

WP3: Renewable Energy Resources

WP4: Demand Side Analysis

WP5: Scenario for Energy and Water Security

WP6: Socio-Economical Impacts

WP7: Environmental Impacts

WP8: Policy Instruments

WP9: Bibliography

WP10: Annex with Country Data

Downloads at: http://www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp