strengthening long-term growth in argentina d. artana, e. bour, j.l. bour y n. susmel
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Strengthening long-term growth in Argentina D. Artana, E. Bour, J.L. Bour y N. Susmel. OECD Seminar “Beyond the crisis – Returning to sustainable growth in Latin America” Paris, November 24 th 2010. Labor regulation is also rigid in our estimate of the EPL3. More rigidity. Source: FIEL. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Strengthening long-term growth in Argentina
D. Artana, E. Bour, J.L. Bour y N. Susmel
FUNDACION DE
I NVESTIGACIONES
ECONOMICAS
LATINOAMERICANAS
OECD Seminar “Beyond the crisis – Returning to sustainable growth in Latin America”
Paris, November 24th 2010
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Labor regulation is also rigid in our estimate of the EPL3
Source: FIEL
More rigidity
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Source: Artana, D. & I. Templado “Is the Argentine Revenue Effort Too High?” 2010.
And the tax burden is also high
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• Manufacturers pay on average US$ 3 per million BTU
New Exploration Contracts between 3.5 & 5
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Price controls of energy products are one factor that explains a declining stock of reserves and production
of natural gas
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There was a reduction in informality, but 2003-09 average is similar to 1993-2000
Informality rates
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• Reallocation from low productivity to high productivity sectors was not very important
• Within-sector more consistent with some external force that drives labor productivity up in all economic sectors
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And quality of education deteriorated in spite of some increase in public expenditures as % of GDP
Quality worsened
Quality improved
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We estimated determinants of growth in Argentina in the period 1981-2009
• Stock of capital adjusted by utilization
• Labor adjusted by number of hours worked
– We also opened for Formal and Informal Workers
• Country risk as separate variable
• Terms of trade (Kehoe and Ruhl, 2007; Becker and Mauro, 2003; Edwards, 2007; Cavalcanti Ferreira et al (2010)
– Gain is similar to technological improvement
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• We can estimate how much the gain in terms of trade contributed to growth in 2003-2009
– One third when informal employment is included
– 73% in our best estimate that takes into account lagged effects.
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Conclusions
• Good luck made a substantial contribution to Argentina’s growth since 2003
• Fiscal challenges that were a key factor behind Argentina’s dismal performance in the past are not such a big challenge (low debt, moderate deficit). But filling the gap with taxes will be costly given the already high tax rates on formal activities
• Evidence points to the need to improve the quality of micro policies and the investment climate … or to bet for permanent luck