Strengthening and Enhancing Seed Systems to Better Manage

Agricultural RiskJill E Cairns, Tsedeke Abate, Peter Craufurd, Cosmos Magorokosho, BM Prasanna, Peter Setimela, Kai Sonder, Clare Stirling, Christian

Thierfelder, Mainassara Zaman-Allah &

Marianne Bänziger

Overview

Sub-Saharan Africa’s maize yields today < USA yields in 1936

>1/2 of sub-Saharan Africa countries allocate >50% of cereal area to maize

Climate change and potential impacts on maize yields

Climate variability and change adaptation interventions

Current maize yields and climatic variability

Current situation…

Maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa

(world average = 4.92 t ha-1)

No data<0.50.5-0.91.0 -1.92.0 -2.93.0 -3.94.0 -4.9>5.0

Maize yields (t ha-1)

Data source: FAO, 2013

Maize yield variability

1961 -1965

1966 -1970

1971 -1975

1976 -1980

1981 -1985

1986 -1990

1991 -1995

1996 -2000

2001 -2005

2006 -2010

USA

Coefficient of variation

China

Brazil

Mexico

Argentina

Tanzania

Malawi

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Data source: FAO, 2014Year

Current climate variability -frequency of droughts in maize areas

Cairns et al. submitted

Current climate variability -rainfall variation

Data source: CRU-TS 3.22 (University of East Anglia) and Harvest Choice (rainfall time series tool)

Gokwe South, Zimbabwe

Maize production in drought prone areasM

aize

pro

du

ctio

n (

10

00

t)

(2585)

Probability of a failed season

Kostandini et al. 2013

Future scenarios…

Climate projections for 2050

Cairns et al. 2013

Maximum temperatures Mean temperatures

Climate change - season length impact

Waha et al. 2013

Cairns et al. 2013

Rainfall (mm)

Gokwe and Bikita, Zimbabwe

Current 2050

Maize yields under climate change

Lobell et al. 2011 Magorokosho in prep.

Mean

Experimental hybrids

1 2

Commercial hybrids

Grain yield (t ha-1)

Maize yield losses under climate change

Tesfaye et al. 2015 Hellin et al. submitted

Interventions…

Interventions

Interventions: Drought Tolerant Seed

Joint breeding pipeline

Interventions: Drought Tolerant Seed

Prasanna et al. 2013

Progress in developing drought tolerant seeds

Drought (managed)Optimal

Drought Tolerant Seed: on-farm performance

Adapted from Setimela et al. submitted

Grain yield (t ha-1)

Grain yield (t ha-1) Grain yield (t ha-1)

Grain yield (t ha-1)

Potential impact of drought tolerant seed

Shiferaw et al. 2014

Building National Capacity

Doubled haploid facility

Prasanna et al. 2013

Heat stress phenotyping

capacity (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya and Zimbabwe)

Training

Sonder et al. submitted

Interventions: Improved Seed

Dissemination and uptake

Variety development

Langyintuo et al. 2010

T. Abate

1950-1959

1960-1969

1970-1979

1980-1989

1990-1999

No. of varieties released

0

5

10

15

20OPVs Hybrids

Years

Scaling up

T. Abate

Number of varieties released

Seed production (t)

Scaling up

Shiferaw et al. 2014

Estimated area (ha)

Beneficiaries

Households

Changing the system

Tesfaye et al. 2015

Potential yield losses under climate change…No. of varieties released

OPVs Hybrids

Years

Sustainable Intensification

Rusinamhodzi and Thierfelder, 2014

Thierfelder et al, 2014

Combining technologies – genetics and sustainable intensification

Shiferaw et al. 2014

Improved maize seeds

Minimum tillage

Rotation Improved maize seeds + minimum

tillage

Improved maize seeds

+ rotation

Improved maize seeds + rotation + minimum

tillage

Net maize income (ETB ha-1)

Combining technologies: targeted action

Conclusions

Maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa are low and likely to further decrease under climate change without appropriate interventions

Near and long term adaptation strategies, based on climate projections, will be essential to offset potential losses in maize production

Genetic and management interventions are being used to raise yields and reduce yield variability