stratosphere-troposphere coupling and links with eurasian land surface variability cohen et. al,...
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Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and Links with Eurasian Land Surface
VariabilityCohen et. al, 2007: Journal of Climate, 20, 5335-5343
Adam Turchioe 2 Dec 2013 ATM 525
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Introduction• Stratosphere-Troposphere annular-mode events
are always preceded by an anomalous lower-stratospheric planetary wave activity flux, but lower-tropospheric wave activity signatures of these events are more difficult to find• Difficulty is due to the variability of the
troposphere in relation to the variability to the stratosphere
• Goal to use these precursors to improve long-term forecasts
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MethodUses three metrics to diagnose
relationship:
1. Wave Activity Flux:
2. October Eurasian snowcover extentUses the Robinson/NSIDC dataset
3. January SLP NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data
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Conclusion•December WAF has a strong center of action over a sector extending from eastern Europe to eastern Asia•This corresponds to the climatologically greatest variance in October snow extent
•The January SLP strongly resembles the Arctic Oscillation (AO)
•The strong relationship (R=0.79, 0.77) between the WAF/SLP and Oct Snow/SLP shows tropospheric conditions can be used to predict stratospheric tropospheric interactions weeks to months in advance
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2013
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20132013 has had a phenomenally fast start to
snowfall growth.
Total Eurasian snow cover extent is well above the 30-year climatological norm
Results with AO correlation have shown there is a MUCH greater importance with snow growth east of 70°E than west.
Notice how the last 3 weeks of October Asian snow cover anomaly tailed off dramatically, as seen in the weekly 2013 snow anomaly maps:
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Week 38 2013 vs 10-Year Avg
Sept 23
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Week 39 2013 vs 10-Year Avg
Sept 30
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Week 40 2013 vs 10-Year Avg
Oct 07
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Week 41 2013 vs 10-Year Avg
Oct 14
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Week 42 2013 vs 10-Year Avg
Oct 21
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Week 43 2013 vs 10-Year Avg
Oct 28
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Week 44 2013 vs 10-Year Avg
Nov 04
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2013As a result, any early snowfall positive anomaly
was greatly offset by a very benign rate of increase of snowfall
Also, in order to finalize the remaining slope, used the current 2-week snowfall projection and visually identified the year that most closely matched the expected snowfall pattern (which turned out to be 2002)
Thus, the 2013 Snow Growth Parameter Index number is 0.816Where does this rank vs other years?
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2013Once again, this is still very new research and
the first-ever use of this index as a predictor
However, with statistically significant correlation values, this year’s winter appears to be headed towards a positive AO state
Will continue to monitor daily snowfall and verify that 2002 is a good analog year for the next two weeks
Will continue working on getting this index to use the daily snowfall data
Thank you!
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Adam Turchioe
University at Albany
1600 Washington Ave Albany, New York 12203
630.337.1999