Strategies & Challenges for NOAA Coastal Ocean Modeling

.Frank Aikman IIIFrank Aikman III

Coast Survey Development Laboratory Coast Survey Development Laboratory National Ocean ServiceNational Ocean Service

NCEP Ocean Modeling WorkshopJanuary 14-15, 2008

Outline

Concept of Operations

Community Modeling

Coupled Systems

Ecosystem Forecasting

Concept of Operations

• Developing NOAA Strategy

• Pathway from Research to Operations and Applications

Developing NOAA Strategy

Space

Time

Phenomena of Interest

Space

Time

Observing Systems

Observations & OSSEIOOS, NESDIS, OAR, JCSDA

Data Assimilation & OSENESDIS, NWS, OAR, JCSDA

Operational Ocean and Coastal Forecast GuidanceNOS, NWS Ops

Products and Services

Research Operations

Giant Bluefin TunaHAB Bulletin

ENSO Update

Pathway from Research to Operations and Applications

Actively manage these interfaces, through community

modeling partnerships

Research and Development

Academia, IOOS Regional Associations, Research components of NOAA & other Fed Agencies

Private Sector

Evaluation and Testing,

Development, Transition to Operations

OperationsValue Added

Product Development

Community Modeling Approach

• A community approach…– Allows for open discussion of strengths and

weaknesses of different models– Elucidates the requirements of a common shared

infrastructure– Allows model improvements to be shared effectively– Advances the science (research and operations)– Leverages resources and amplifies the voice of the

community

Community Modeling: Barriers, Benefits and Priority Needs

• Barriers– Formats of data and model files– Data and model availability– Lack of documentation– Lack of coordination– Lack of resources

• Benefits– Expanded resources– Credibility– Data exchange– Streamlining research to

operations and model coupling

– Education of user community (risk)

• Priorities– Error metrics and reference datasets– Standards and infrastructure– Engagement and support

Coupled Systems Challenges

Scales: Space: Riverine-Estuarine-Coastal-Basin-Global Time: From Minutes to Synoptic to Seasonal to

Interannual to Decadal to Long-Term Climate

Issues: Software Architecture Formats and Methodologies Standards and Infrastructure Skill Assessment (Metrics)

Coupled Systems Challenges

Physical-Ecological:Whole EcosystemBiogeochemical

Water qualityNPZHabitatPelagic

Fish recruitmentSingle SpeciesMultiple Species

Food Web/Energy BudgetGiant Bluefin Tuna