strategic tools that show results in the cero-process
DESCRIPTION
Strategic tools that show results in the CERO-process. Markus Robèrt, PhD Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm www.cero.nu. A few dilemmas in the business of company travel planning…. No no, it’s faschinating. …do continue!. The ”split-personality” at companies. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Strategic tools that show results in the CERO-process
Markus Robèrt, PhD
Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm
www.cero.nu
A few dilemmas in the business of company travel planning…
No no, it’s faschinating...
…do continue!
The ”split-personality” at companies
The ”putting lipstick on a pig-approach”
”Little league football-strategies”…
CERO is based on backcasting
Travel policiesMapping Target
52 CERO-organizations…
Five CERO-organizations have conducted follow-ups 2012-2014 all have improved…
4-18% CO2-reduction
Mapping emissions and costs- avoid sub optimization
CO2-emissions/year (tons)
2800 ∑ Total
2600
2400
2200
2000 A. Work commute car
1800 B. Work commute public transport
1600 C. Business trips car
1400 D. Aviation trips domestic
1200 A E. Aviation trips abroad
1000
800 E Company total
600 C
400
200 D
<10 B2 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 Travel costs (Million SEK)
BenchmarkingTonCo2/cap
12 12
11 11
10
9 10
8
7
6
5 9
4 8
3 6
2 5
1 2
0,5 1
10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 120000 SEK/cap
3 4
Communication tools: Point out the winners…
Decision making tools:Make it easy but get rid of the fuzzyness…
Problem with climate targets:
% - targets hard to follow-up in policy terms...
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CERO-transformation of the backcasting target
Target scenario
Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions (commute trips)
• 13 car commuters switch to public transport
• Train tickets to 4 commuters with longest distance
• Encourage 31 car commuters to renewable fuel cars
• Allow telecommuting at least once a month
• Offer eco-driving to at least 115 car commuters
• Encourage cycling to 36 car commuters with distance 0,5-6km
• Replace 11% of business trips by car to public transport Annual cost reduction 220 000 SEK
• Replace 10% of business trips by car to virtual meetings Annual cost reduction 350 000 SEK
• Replace 17% of private vehicle trips with car sharing fleetAnnual cost increase 140 000 SEK
• Use renewable fuels for all company cars Annual cost reduction unchanged
• Replace 23% of domestic aviation to trainAnnual cost reduction 85.000 SEK
• Replace 2% of aviation trips abroad to virtual meetings Annual cost reduction 80.000 SEK
Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions (business trips)
Target scenario at a company of ~500 employees10% CO2-reductions >50 000 EUR/year
Business trips Substitution rate to alternative
CO2 reduction
Potential annual cost reduction (EUR)
Company cars to video conferencing 10 % 1 % 35 000 Use renewable fuels in company cars 40 % 2 % 0 Company car trips to public transport 11 % 1 % 6 500 Domestic aviation to train 23 % 1 % 8 500 Aviation abroad to virtual meetings 2 % 1 % 8 000
Work commute trips
Number of car commuters switching mode
CO2 reduction
Private car to public transport 13 commuters (6 %) 1 % Increase adoption of telecommuting 11 commuters (5 %) 1 % Long-distance commute to railway 8 commuters (4 %) 2 %
Total 10 % 58 000 EUR/year
Turning theory into practice in CERO-workshops
2. Scenario level - Design target scenario
1. Principal level – Reach consensus on target
3. Action level – Selection of measures
CO2
Economy
Employee acceptance
Business trips Substitution rate to alternative
CO2 reduction
Potential annual cost reduction (EUR)
Company cars to video conferencing 10 % 1 % 35 000 Use renewable fuels in company cars 40 % 2 % 0 Company car trips to public transport 11 % 1 % 6 500 Domestic aviation to train 23 % 1 % 8 500 Aviation abroad to virtual meetings 2 % 1 % 8 000
Work commute trips
Number of car commuters switching mode
CO2 reduction
Private car to public transport 13 commuters (6 %) 1 % Increase adoption of telecommuting 11 commuters (5 %) 1 % Long-distance commute to railway 8 commuters (4 %) 2 %
Total 10 % 58 000 EUR/year
CERO-tool for building target scenarios
Who is doing what and when?
...from action plan to action?
CERO-Challenge a’la wordfeud…
• Measure travel patterns and get feedback
• Individual target setting according to CERO-scenarios
• Individual and group challenges a’la wordfeud
IT-tools for implementing MM-strategies in organizationsHand out the toolbox, not the solutions!
Upscaling to a regional CERO…
1:4
…by applying the CERO-database…Travel data from >150 000 observations
…to simulate realistic travel volumes
• Estimate travel time and distance from a probability distribution in the CERO-database
- Geographic location
- Type of organization
• Utilize a population density map
• Estimate a transport choice model by (again) applying the CERO database
Tool for ”transport optimization studies”…
http://www8.cs.umu.se/~bopspe/SpaceTime/cero/
SIM-C
ERO
Dialogue tools for stakeholders with different perspectivesAvoid creating watertight bulkheads…
