Fifty Models for strategic ThinkingBy Mikael Krogerus & Roman Tchappëler

The Decision Book

by Sameh GhazalyBy Sameh Ghazaly

Content:Workshop Decision making models that help you to answer

• How to improve yourself

• How to understand yourself better

• How to understand others better

• How to improve others

How to improve yourself

The Decision Book

by Sameh Ghazaly

The most dangerous decisions are rarely the most important ones . Eisenhower

Stanford University Study in 1960s – data from 500 fortune companies showed that 30% discrepancy between the company objectives & implementation

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Objectives Achieved

THE PROJECT PORTFOLIO MATRIX

Arrange your current projects in the matrix : Are you on Budget and on time ?

We often defer decisions when we’ve doubts. But not making a decision is a decision itself

WHERE HAVE YOU COME FROM ?WHAT IS REALY IMPROTANT TO YOU?WHICH PEOPLE ARE IMPORTANT TO YOU?WHAT IS HINDERING YOU?WHAT ARE YOU AFRAID OF ?

1- the beckoning Road 2- the dream Road 3- the sensible Road4- the road not travelled 5- The Familiar Road 6- The Road Back

YOU DECIDE …

The Decision Book

by Sameh Ghazaly

How to understand yourself better

What is preventing you from being happy?

How can we overcome the dissonance ?

Either by changing our behavior or attitude

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REALITY DRIVEN

40

30

30

MEMORY DRIVEN

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DREAM DRIVEN

FUTURE NOW PAST EUROPEASIAUSA

Ask yourselfHow much of your time do you spend thinking in the past ? How much about here & now ? How much about the future

Its not what you know .. Its what you remember .

How to recognize whether you should change your job

To what extent my current tasks ..

• Have to Being imposed on me or demanded of me

• Able tomatch my abilities

• Want toCorrespond to what I really want

• How to understand others better

The Decision Book

by Sameh Ghazaly

5 Years

5 Years

10 Years

10 Years 2 Years

2 Years

You can’t shake hands with a clenched fist. Indira Gandhi

Experience is the name everyone gives to his mistakes . Oscar Wilde

The things we desire the most are the things we need the least

Real change occur when reassess our more deeply rooted reasons, objectives and values

Any fool can criticize & most fools do. Benjamin Franklin

Why your experiences don’t make you any wiser

Bertrand Russell , the problem of philosophy 1912

How do We Know what We Know ?

Does The Past Help Us Predict The future?

Why Do We Never Expect Unexpected Events?

What Were black Swan – the unexpected events in your life and When did they occur ?

• How to improve others

The Decision Book

by Sameh Ghazaly

How to turn A group into A team

THE TEAM UP TO THE JOB

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Avoid Penalty Shoot Out

Create New criteria that apply to your team’s objective & evaluate each team member against them , ask the team to evaluate themselves, how do the curve compare

The Gab in the Market Model

This Model Helps you to identify gaps in the market; position your competitors according to the three aces ( e.g Prestige, Cost-Effectiveness, Awareness) … Where is there a niche ?

You want to Launch a magazine .. Then

The x-axis is Cost Effectiveness - how economical is your product ?

The Y-axis is Prestige –How well known is the Product ?

The z-axis is Awareness – How loud is your product?

What Can We Learn From this Models

• Management models have tried to reduce complexity by considering ideas into matrix

• Its all started by spreadsheet programs ( like Microsoft Excel revolutionized budget tool)

• Management theory today is at about the same stage as medicine before X-Ray intro.

• Today the results of certain decisions are first tested in a virtual world before they are implemented in a real markets

• In The future, Decision makers will work with Prognosis tools (e.g. Predictions by statistical analysis) and the value of such early models shouldn’t be underestimated .. Even with the newest medical interventions to hand, A doctor will still rely on the basic diagnostic tools : listening and examining

Thank you