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Hotel Investment Forum India Elizabeth Winkle Managing Director, STR Global 13th January 2015 Global Hotel Industry Performance

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Page 1: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

Hotel Investment Forum India

Elizabeth Winkle

Managing Director, STR Global

13th January 2015

Global Hotel Industry Performance

Page 2: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

Let the Good Times Roll November 2014 YTD RevPAR % Change, Constant Currency USD, Europe in EUR

+8.1% +4.9%€ +3.5%

+0.8%

+5.1% +17.2%

+14.1%

+2.7%

Page 3: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

Strong Industry Fundamentals

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

North America Central &South America

Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia &Oceania

Supply Demand

Supply & Demand % Change, November 2014 YTD

Page 4: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

Countdown: 14 from 2014

Page 5: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

#14 Demand: +10% from Previous Peak

12MMA Demand; Nov 2007 – Nov 2014 (indexed at Nov 2007)

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

Nov 14Nov 13Nov 12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07

EU + UK US

Page 6: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

#13 US: 57 months of RevPAR Growth

RevPAR Percent Change January 2001 – November 2014

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hu

nd

red

s 57 months of growth

9/11

SARS Global

Financial crisis

56 months of growth

Page 7: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

#12 US: Record Setting Year

Page 8: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

#11 Europe: 16 Consecutive Growth Months

RevPAR Percent Change January 2001 – November 2014

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hu

nd

red

s 16 months of growth

9/11

SARS Global

Financial crisis

Page 9: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

#10 US: Pricing Power; EU Opportunity

12MMA ADR; Nov 2007 – Nov 2014 (indexed at Nov 2007)

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

Nov 14Nov 13Nov 12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07

EU + UK (EUR) US (USD)

Page 10: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

#9 RevPAR: 3 of 4 Back to Peak

12MMA ADR; Nov 2007 – Nov 2014 (indexed at Nov 2007)

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

Nov 14Nov 13Nov 12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07

Europe Eastern Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe

Page 11: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

#8 RevPAR +>5% in 11/22 Capitals

Nov 2014 YTD % Change Demand and RevPAR, Lux & UpperUp

-38% -28% -18% -8% 2% 12% 22% 32%

AthensBucharest

Greater MadridLisbon

SofiaGreater Amsterdam

Greater BerlinBrussels

BudapestPrague

RomeGreater London

HelsinkiDublin

ParisMonacoWarsawVienna

BratislavaMoscow

Kiev

Hundreds

Demand Nov YTD RevPAR Nov YTD LC

Page 12: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

12 months moving average Jan 2006 to November 2014

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Supply % Chg Demand % Chg

#7 MEA: Demand Pickup

+6.6%

+2.7%

Page 13: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

November 2014 YTD, in local currency

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

Occupancy ADR

#6 MEA: Egypt Summer Recovery

Page 14: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

# of international tourist arrivals in millions; Global & APAC

234 APAC

2012

Global 1.035

260 APAC

2014 f

Global 1.132

219

APAC

2011

Global

995

248 APAC

2013

Global 1.087

Source: UNWTO

#5 APAC: Int’l Arrivals +12m YOY

Page 15: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

Market performance – RevPAR % Growth, Nov 2014 YTD, USD (CC)

North-

Eastern

Central

& South

South- Eastern

Australia

Oceania

+1.0%

-0.6%

-0.8%

+4.9%

%

%

$

$ and %

#4 APAC: Performance Improvement

Page 16: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

November 2014 YTD, in local currency

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%Occupancy ADR Thailand O -13% A +3%

#3 APAC Performance: Mostly Positive

Page 17: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bangladesh

Mongolia

Myanmar

Sri Lanka

…+235%

+76%

+72%

+45%

Pipeline as a % of existing supply

#2 Pipeline: Ones to Watch

Page 18: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

Pipeline by Room Count November 2014

54%

12% 11%

Malaysia 4%

Japan 3%

Philippines 2%

Thailand 3%

Australia 2%

Vietnam 2%

Myanmar 1%

Others 6%

#1 APAC: Pipeline by Country

Page 19: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

2015 Resolutions

Page 20: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

RevPAR growth 2015, November 2014 edition

Forecast: 32/37 Markets Set to Rise

Page 21: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

Takeaways

Strong Demand: Outpacing supply in most regions

Supply Growth: Slower than previous years

Stable Occupancies: Creates ADR opportunities

Recovery or Growth: Most global markets

International Arrivals: More travelling and ease of

travel improving (airlift, visa)

2015 Outlook: Positive

Page 22: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

Threats

Economic Instability

Political Instability

Real & Perceived Security Threats

Cost of Oil (+ and -)

FX

Page 23: STR Global Hotel investment Forum India 2015

STR Global

www.strglobal.com You can follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook

STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.

Global Hotel Industry Performance

Elizabeth Winkle