sticker shock - what is life really worth - pravin mahajan

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Sticker Shock What is Life Really Worth? Pravin Mahajan

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Establishing the value of life is a problematic exercise at best. A mystery billionaire recently insured himself at $200 million as distinct from his net worth, prompting one to reflect on the monetary value of a life. In this talk, we'll explore various methods used today to put a number to life. But are they correct? In this age of limitless data are we using the right metrics? Are there other ways to measure life, and not just the human one? Should we even try?

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Page 1: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

Sticker ShockWhat is Life Really Worth?

Pravin Mahajan

Page 2: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

If a human life is a financial asset• World GDP = $72 Trillion• Population = 7 Billion (labor force = 3.3 Billion)• Each human produces= $21,818 per year• Assuming productive life = 40 years• Lifetime value of a human = $872,720

• Average Joe in US = That seems low.• Average John in Africa = Wow! That’s a lot.

Page 3: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

There’s a slight wrinkle though…• World Debt = $72 Trillion• Population = 7 Billion • Each human owes = $10,285 (at a point in time)• This reduces the lifetime value of the human

• Another report put World Debt at $223 Trillion

Page 4: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

More numbers…In theory, value of human life is pricelessIn reality,• $50,000 Most insurance plans to cover a new medical

procedure (aka one year quality of life)• $129,000 Stanford study on kidney dialysis benchmark• $500,000 Average death benefit paid to US veteran• $9.1 million EPA estimate

IPCC estimates developed world is 15x developing world• $7.9 million FDA estimate• $6 million Transportation Department

Page 5: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

A billionaire insured for $200 million?

Or has the guy who sold the policy just sold ice

to an eskimo?

Calculate your life value atwww.lifehappens.org

Page 6: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

How is “worth” measured economically?

Financial Asset

GoodService

Money

Credit

Transaction

∑ Transactions = Economy

The conventional notion of value is $

Page 7: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

If a person’s worth is ever-changing,where is it headed?

R > G Thomas Piketty

R = Rate of Return on CapitalG = Income/GDP Growth (Labor proxy)

Page 8: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

Demolishing the economic shibboleths

Economics has become the imperial science

Too much emphasis on its Math-driven might defeating other branches of Science

Economics needs to be more real-world, and not just qualitative theorems masking as hard-science.

MidWestern University

Page 9: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

Valuing nature (and non-human life)

Zaglossus Attenboroughi

Page 10: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

The paradox of value

Nothing is more useful than water: but it will purchase scarcely anything; scarcely

anything can be had in exchange for it. A diamond, on the

contrary, has scarcely any use-value; but a very great quantity of other goods may frequently

be had in exchange for it.

Page 11: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

Valuing nature

The rise of ‘Natural Capital’ valuation

Puma counts 3 types of Profit and Loss Accounts (P&L) from 20101. Economic P&L2. Social P&L3. Environmental P&L

Page 12: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

Nature has 2 sorts of value

1. Use valueE.g. $29 billion contributed to US economy by bees in 2010

2. Non-use valueE.g. Afghanistan’s Bamiyan Buddhas whose destruction by the Taliban was mourned around the planet

Page 13: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

So, what about the Zaglossus Attenboroughi?

• It has no Use value– Well, maybe as a snack

• It has no Non-Use value– Won’t do well in surveys asking people its

value; they always choose charismatic beasts (Lions, African elephants)

• It is only of great ‘Scientific Interest’

Page 14: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

Conservationist sentimentalism

• Unspoken assumption that the current state of natural world is the desirable standard

• However it is the nature of Nature to change and evolve…and species to go extinct

• That is called “life”

Page 15: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

Back to the human life, what if our worth is beyond the economic?

Some things are not just reducible to money.

It is not that life has infinite monetary value. It is that life cannot be sensibly exchanged for money.

What would you accept as a compensation for 5 years of the most severe form of torture (non fatal)?

Page 16: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

From mullet to genius

Surely, Jason is worth more now (and not just in $$)

Page 17: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

There are no perfect circles in nature!

Page 18: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

So how would I value myself?Moments not just metrics

Page 19: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

42

Page 20: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

Questions, Kvetches, Irrational Exuberance,

Uncomfortable Excitement?

[email protected]

Page 21: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan

Further random thoughts• Robots could be basis of a new slave-based economy…does

the value of a human go down? Will it be a new Athens or the antebellum South?

• Moore’s Law for Genetics…Cloning Technology…Movie ‘The Island’

• What is you could swap your body for someone else? http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140427-i-swapped-bodies-with-someone

Page 22: Sticker Shock - What is Life Really Worth - Pravin Mahajan