Stearns – 1914-present – Stearns – 1914-present – Contemporary PeriodContemporary Period

Serious attention needed on Serious attention needed on thisthis

3 chunks: 3 chunks: 1. WWI/interwar/WWII1. WWI/interwar/WWII2. Cold War2. Cold War3. 1989-present 3. 1989-present

1945 to present most 1945 to present most important.important.

Theme 1 – Decline of WestTheme 1 – Decline of WestFrom WWI on West declines From WWI on West declines (WWI is civil war of West)(WWI is civil war of West)Symptoms: Symptoms:

•Demographic - West’s share of Demographic - West’s share of world population drops – world population drops – everywhere else is growing.everywhere else is growing.•West becomes elderly.West becomes elderly.

Theme 1 – Decline of WestTheme 1 – Decline of WestPolitical power of West Political power of West declines.declines.Decolonization from 1920 on.Decolonization from 1920 on.West’s relative military power West’s relative military power declines (exception – air declines (exception – air power).power).

Why the Western military Why the Western military decline?decline?

1.1. Guerilla warfare (i.e.. Guerilla warfare (i.e.. Vietnam).Vietnam).

2.2. Large number of states get Large number of states get enough military to defend enough military to defend themselves – make it tougher themselves – make it tougher for the West. Ie. for the West. Ie. Decolonization, $ to buy guns, Decolonization, $ to buy guns, capitalists will sell to anyone.capitalists will sell to anyone.

Complexity number 1Complexity number 1As West declines, cultural As West declines, cultural impact of West goes up.impact of West goes up.

•W. power not as menacing.W. power not as menacing.•W. exports “cool stuff.”W. exports “cool stuff.”•Japan does as well.Japan does as well.

Complexity number 2Complexity number 2Economy being re-defined Economy being re-defined once again.once again.W. still have dominant W. still have dominant economies exporting finished economies exporting finished goods, but the Pacific Rim goods, but the Pacific Rim countries now are in the mix.countries now are in the mix.

Subordinate groupsSubordinate groupsSub-Sahara AfricaSub-Sahara AfricaParts of Latin AmericaParts of Latin America

Who is in the middle Who is in the middle economically?economically?

India, China, Thailand, Brazil, India, China, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, some Argentina, Venezuela, some M.E. countries (Turkey, Iran), M.E. countries (Turkey, Iran), Australia, Canada.Australia, Canada.

How did these “economic middle How did these “economic middle countries” get in the middle?countries” get in the middle?

1.1. Use of a valuable/special Use of a valuable/special resource to make $ (i.e.. Oil)resource to make $ (i.e.. Oil)

2.2. Play both sides of the Cold War.Play both sides of the Cold War.3.3. De-colonization.De-colonization.4.4. ““Import substitutes” – make Import substitutes” – make

clothes and cars at home clothes and cars at home (Turkey, India).(Turkey, India).

How did these “economic middle How did these “economic middle countries” get in the middle?countries” get in the middle?

5. Develop new kind of export 5. Develop new kind of export – i.e.. Brazil – 4– i.e.. Brazil – 4thth largest largest computer exporter, excellent computer exporter, excellent steel. India – software. Chile steel. India – software. Chile – veggies, wine, fruit.– veggies, wine, fruit.

Some new themesSome new themes1.1. Women gain in education Women gain in education

globally – great variety.globally – great variety.-- Re-definition of patriarchy? -- Re-definition of patriarchy? In a real patriarchal society, In a real patriarchal society, women would not be able to women would not be able to vote.vote.

2. Falling birthrates.2. Falling birthrates.

Some new themesSome new themes3. New technologies – 3. New technologies – airplanes, radios, satellites, airplanes, radios, satellites, internet.internet.4. Attempt by everyone to 4. Attempt by everyone to teach more people.teach more people.5. 300% population increase – 5. 300% population increase – largest in the history of the largest in the history of the world.world.

Some new themesSome new themes6. Rise of nation states.6. Rise of nation states.7. No clear pattern of cultural 7. No clear pattern of cultural change:change:

-- Revival of Islamic, Hindu, -- Revival of Islamic, Hindu, and Buddhist fundamentalism.and Buddhist fundamentalism.

-- Divisions within society – -- Divisions within society – secular and religious.secular and religious.

NoNo clear pattern of cultural change:clear pattern of cultural change:

China – Neo-Buddhist or Neo-China – Neo-Buddhist or Neo-CommunistCommunistIndia – Neo-Communist or India – Neo-Communist or Congress Party secular.Congress Party secular.Africa – Christian / Muslim Africa – Christian / Muslim tensions/conversions.tensions/conversions.

Massive Social ChangeMassive Social Change Who were the social classes Who were the social classes

that rules change?that rules change?• In 1900 – LandownersIn 1900 – Landowners• In 2000 – Big business ownersIn 2000 – Big business ownersFewer peasants, more urban Fewer peasants, more urban

workers.workers.

GlobalizationGlobalizationTechnology based.Technology based.People moving / migrating.People moving / migrating.China re-enters in 1978China re-enters in 1978Russia re-enters in 1985Russia re-enters in 1985

GlobalizationGlobalizationGlobalization – what does it Globalization – what does it mean?mean?Multinational groups Multinational groups dependent upon each other.dependent upon each other.Massive opportunities for Massive opportunities for cultural exchange.cultural exchange.

GlobalizationGlobalizationInternational political International political organizations – i.e.. WHO organizations – i.e.. WHO limiting SARS.limiting SARS.Globalization of democracy – Globalization of democracy – to Latin America, Southern to Latin America, Southern Europe, Africa, Middle East?Europe, Africa, Middle East?

GlobalizationGlobalizationImpacts:Impacts:

•Resistance (terrorism, anti-Resistance (terrorism, anti-world groups).world groups).

First round of globalization did First round of globalization did not work – will this one?not work – will this one?