statistics has 3150. sources of knowing tenacity intuition authority personal experience reasoning...
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Statistics
HAS 3150
Sources of knowing Tenacity Intuition Authority Personal experience Reasoning
Deductive Inductive
Why collect facts? Exploratory research Confirmatory research
Some terms Reliability Validity
Probability
= 3/6 or ½ or 50%
= 3/6 x 2/5 = 1/5 or 20%
Dog Owners and Heart Attacks 92 people had a heart attack 78 survived 14 did not 53 were dog owners 39 were not
Dogs and Heart AttacksDog Owners
Non-owners
Survived heart attack
50/92
.5435
28/92
.3043
78/92
.8478
Didn’t make it
3/92
.0326
11/92
.1192
14/92
.1522
53/92
.5761
39/92
.4239
Power Probability of making a correct decision Three factors
The Alpha level The sample size The effect size
An example…N Power
10 .18
20 .33
50 .70
100 .94
Power False positives False negatives
Risk Assessment
Risk Perception Control Knowledge Catastrophes Dreadness and knowability
Cost Benefit Analysis
Vital Statistics Births Deaths Marriages and divorces Spontaneous fetal deaths and abortions
The Census How many people Age-adjusted or age-specific Sex-specific Race-specific Every 10 years Sampling versus population
National Center for Health Statistics
Accuracy and availability
“…the Government [is] very keen on amassing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cubed root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that every one of those figures comes in the first instance from the village watchman, who just puts down what he pleases.”
British economist Sir Josiah Stamp (1880-1941)
Confidentiality HIPAA
Risk Factors Biological Environmental Lifestyle Psychosocial Access to health services
Analyzing Risk Factors Determinants Direct contributing factors Indirect contributing factors
Measuring Health Mortality-based indicators
Crude mortality rates Age-specific mortality rates Life Expectancy Infant mortality
Measuring Health Morbidity and disability measures
Used less Prevalence and Incidence
Jeopardy