state of the poultry industry - agriculture and … nfu champions british farming and provides...

The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members

State of the Poultry Industry

Chris Dickinson – NFU

AHDB Outlook Conference 2014



Agenda

1. Size and scale

2. Where we have come from?

3. Industry growth

4. Future challenges & opportunities

5. NFU’s work


Poultry Industry – facts and figures • Welcome to the UK’s most consumed meat – poultry accounts for

41% of total meat consumption (pork 30%)

• 1.4 million tonnes of broiler meat produced in 2013, 35% more than

in 1990s

• 189,000 tonnes of turkey meat produced in 2013

• 80% self-sufficient in poultry meat

• The largest poultry company 2 Sisters Food Group employs over

5,000 people and its revenue for 2012 was £3 billion

• The industry uses around 4 million tonnes of wheat each year


Industry breakdown 2 Sisters Food Group 6.1 million birds per week

Moy Park 4.5 million

Faccenda 1.9 million

Cargill (Sun Valley) 1.7 million

Banham Poultry 600,000

Frank Bird Ltd 500,000

Highbury 400,000

IHP 400,000

Crown Poultry 300,000

Gafoor Poultry 200,000

Traditional Norfolk Poultry 60,000

Total 16.51million birds per week 75% Integrated (£1.00/m2/wk)

UK slaughter approx 17 million birds per week 25% Independent (91p/kg lwt)


Market Split 85% of birds standard or standard plus (+)

• Stocked at up to 38kg/m2; typical av growth rate of 60 gms/day

• 2.4kg liveweight @ 40 days. 1.8 FCR, 5% mortality

• = 100 – 110 p/m2/week; windows – approx 60% of sheds

14% higher welfare eg Waitrose, M&S (-)

• Slower growing – less than 45 g/day

• Enriched environment, RSPCA Freedom Foods

3% Free Range (-)

• 2.4kg @ 56 days 50% of life free range; 27.5 kg/m2

1% Organic (+)

• 2.4 kg @ 80 days


Inside a modern day shed


Driving growth factors

• Rising demand

• Well integrated

• Un-subsidised

• Dovetails with mixed farms

• Quick turnarounds

• Opportunity for growth

• Growth in renewables


Trends in broiler chick placings

943

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Millions of chicks

Source: Defra Hatcheries Survey

UK broiler chick placings trends


Rising broiler slaughterings

902

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Million birds

Source: Defra Poultry Slaughterhouse Survey

UK broiler slaughterings annual trends


Resulting in higher production levels

1388

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

000 tonnes

Source: Defra Poultry Slaughterhouse Survey

UK broiler production annual trends


Reducing import requirements in 2013

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

000 tonnes

Source: Defra & HMRC

Chicken meat imports volume - fresh & frozen 2012 2013


Firm poultry meat consumption

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

%

Source: Defra Production and Supply Balance

Share of meat consumption

Poultry Pork Beef Lamb


Latest trends in chicken consumption

-3.1

30.4

2.8 0.9

-25.8

5.2

13.2

7.6 8.9

-18.6

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Chicken Organic Free Range Standard Value

% change Y-O-Y

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

Average % change in retail purchases - Fresh Chicken

Quantity Expenditure

52 weeks ending 5th Jan 2014

1.1

23.7

18.0

4.2

-29.9

3.2 1.2

19.6

6.1

-32.0 -40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

Chicken Organic Free Range Standard Value

% change Y-O-Y

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

Average % change in retail purchases - Fresh Chicken

Quantity Expenditure

12 weeks ending 5th Jan 2014


Poultry Industry confidence

27

36

7

24 23 28 30

35

23

0

27 22

16

30

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Arable Dairy Beef / Sheep Horticulture Mixed arable& livestock

Pigs Poultry

Co

nfi

de

nc

e s

co

re

(-1

00

ne

ga

tive

to

+ 1

00

p

os

itiv

e)

Main farm sector Short-term (1 year)Mid-term (3 years)

• NFU confidence survey – Overall poultry more confident than other

livestock sectors

• Mid-term confidence might have been boosted by the perception that

tight supplies will keep agricultural commodities at relatively high levels


Future Challenges

&

Opportunities


Future challenges

• Feed price volatility

• Current surge of

investment

• Public

perception/image

• Need to avoid

potential over-

production


Campylobacter

• FSA launched ‘Refreshed Strategy

to Reduce Campylobacteriosis from

Poultry’

• Whole supply chain must work

together to reduce levels

• Top priority for the FSA

• Peter Kendall, Mike Bailey & Andy

Robertson have met with Catherine

Brown, CEO of the FSA

• Potential Edwina Curry Moment


Antibiotic Use • Threats of antibiotic resistance and growing concern about antibiotic

use

• Consumer misunderstanding about the role of vaccines in the food

chain

• 1 person dies every 20 minutes in Europe due to resistance - 25,000

people year.

• Human use: most important contributor to AMR in human pathogens

• Led to Lion Code and Red Tractor Assurance current proposal on

tightening their codes on medicine use and reporting

• Work with RUMA – Responsible Use of Antibiotics in Agriculture

• Easy story to spin e.g Daily Mail misleading articles


The most over used statistic in the

global food industry?

• The U.N. projects that

world population will be

9.3bn by 2050

• With nearly all of this

growth in developing

countries


Feeding the world?

Cumulative meat consumption

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

Cu

mu

lati

ve m

eat

co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

tho

usan

d t

on

nes)

Beef and veal (cwe) Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat (rtc) Sheepmeat(cwe)


The UK’s there already…

Poultry, 41%

Pork, 30%

Beef & Veal , 23%

Lamb & Mutton, 6%

Share of meat consumption - 2012

Source: Defra Production and Supply Balance

• Poultry - most consumed meat

in the UK – accounting for 40%

of total meat consumption

• Why? – value for money,

versatility and easy to cook

• Relatively strong performance

for poultry in the last five years

in terms both volume and values


NFU work


Poultry Industry Programme

• Bright future ahead

• NFU - engaging with

the next generation

• Future Poultry board

• Key note speakers &

farm visits

• Plan for next PIP


NFU Poultry Publications

• Poultry Forum Magazine

(bi-monthly)

• Poultry Highlights weekly

e-newsletter

• Poultry Business Bulletin

weekly e-newsletter

• Poultry Section – NFU

Online


Thank you – any questions?

state of the poultry industry - agriculture and … nfu champions british farming and provides...

Documents