state of the future: outlook for humanity in the year 2020
TRANSCRIPT
State of the FutureOutlook for humanity in the year 2020.
Humanity:The human species.
Outlook: 2020Introduction
BetterWorse
UncertainHow to Improve
The best way to predict the future is to create it.“ ”~ Peter Drucker
To enable thinkers, political personalities,
scientists and lay-people to share an informed,
serious dialogue on what the future will be like.
“
”~ World Future Society Mission
Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future
Richer
Healthier
Educated
Peaceful
Connected
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Catastrophe:is an extremely large scale disaster.
Current trends:
PopulationGrowth
ResourceDepletion
ClimateChange
Terrorism OrganizedCrime
Disease
2020?
The Millennium
Project
Think tank:is an organization that conducts research.
Outlook 2020:Better
Outlook 2020:
CleanWater
Better
Clean Water
1 in 8
3.6 milliondie
Outlook 2020:
CleanWater
AdultLiteracy
Better
Adult Literacy:is the percentage of people 15 and above who can read and write a short simple statement on their everyday life.
Adult Literacy
>97
% % % % % % % %90~97 80~90 70~80 60~70 50~60 35~50 <35
Outlook 2020:
CleanWater
AdultLiteracy Poverty
Better
Destitution:is the inability to afford basic human needs.
1.7 billion
>2
% % % % % % % %2~5 6~20 21~40 41~60 61~80 Over 80 N/A
Poverty
Outlook 2020:
CleanWater
AdultLiteracy Poverty Population
Growth
Better
Overpopulation
1804 1927 1999 2010
Population Growth7 billion
6 billion
2 billion1 billion
+123 +72 +11
Outlook 2020:
CleanWater
AdultLiteracy Poverty Population
Growth Doctors
Better
Health CareProviders
HealthKnowledge
Doubles every 5 Years
Outlook 2020:
CleanWater
AdultLiteracy Poverty Population
Growth Doctors
InternetUsers
Better
34%
Internet Users
456 million
Internet Users
Internet Users
Outlook 2020:
CleanWater
AdultLiteracy Poverty Population
Growth Doctors
InternetUsers
InfantDeaths
Better
Infant mortality rate:is the number of deaths of infants underone year old per 1,000 live births.
World 49
Japan 3
Angola 180
Where is Angola?
Angola
Angola60%
Outlook 2020:
CleanWater
AdultLiteracy Poverty Population
Growth Doctors
InternetUsers
InfantDeaths
LifeExpectancy
Better
Life expectancy:is the average number of years of life.
Japan 83
Swaziland 32
Outlook 2020:
CleanWater
AdultLiteracy Poverty Population
Growth Doctors
InternetUsers
InfantDeaths
LifeExpectancy
ArmedConflict
Better
Armed conflict:with more than 1,000 deaths per year.
Armed Conflict
Over 1,000 deaths per year:
Outlook 2020:
CleanWater
AdultLiteracy Poverty Population
Growth Doctors
InternetUsers
InfantDeaths
LifeExpectancy
ArmedConflict Hunger
Better
Undernourishment:supplied with less than the minimum amount of foods essential for sound health.
#1 HealthRisk
1 in 7
Better2020
Outlook 2020:
CleanWater
AdultLiteracy Poverty Population
Growth Doctors
InternetUsers
InfantDeaths
LifeExpectancy
ArmedConflict Hunger
Better
Outlook 2020:Worse
Outlook 2020:Worse
Green-houseGas Emissions
Greenhouse gasses:caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
Must Cut 80%
Did you know?
18%of human related
greenhouse gasses
The meat industry produces
More than the transportation industry.
Which country is thelargest investor in
clean energy?
China$51 billion
Outlook 2020:
Green-houseGas Emissions Temperature
Worse
Global surface temperaturehas increased each decade since 1970. 2010 was the warmest year on record.
Melting polar ice caps.
New York?
Outlook 2020:
Green-houseGas Emissions Temperature Illicid
Trade
Worse
Illicid trade:
trade that is forbidden by law.
Governmentcorruption and bribes:
$1 trillion
Illicid trade:
Governmentcorruption and bribes:
$2 trillion
Money laundering:
the process of disguising illegal moneyso that it looks like it comes from legal sources.
$1 trillion
Illicid trade:
Governmentcorruption and bribes:
$2.4 trillion
Money laundering:
Global drug trade: $400 billion
Illicid trade:
Governmentcorruption and bribes:
$2.7 trillion
Money laundering:
Global drug trade:
Intellectual property piracy: $300 billion
Illicid trade:
Governmentcorruption and bribes:
$2.9 trillion
Money laundering:
Global drug trade:
Intellectual property piracy:
Human trafficking:$200 billion
Illicid trade:
Governmentcorruption and bribes:
$2.99 trillion
Money laundering:
Global drug trade:
Intellectual property piracy:
Human trafficking:
Smuggling:
the illegal movement of goods or persons across international boarders.
$90 billion
Illicid trade:
Governmentcorruption and bribes:
$3 trillion
Money laundering:
Global drug trade:
Intellectual property piracy:
Human trafficking:
Smuggling:
Weapons trade: $10 billion
Illicid trade:
$3 trillionIn 2011 illicid trade was about:
Illicid trade:
Double allthe military budgets in the world.
Outlook 2020:
Green-houseGas Emissions Temperature Illicid
Trade
TerroristAttacks
Worse
Biological weapons
Terrorist Incidences
Outlook 2020:
Green-houseGas Emissions Temperature Illicid
Trade
TerroristAttacks Refugees
Worse
Refugees:are people who go to a foreign country to escape danger.
Worse2020
Outlook 2020:
Green-houseGas Emissions Temperature Illicid
Trade
TerroristAttacks Refugees
Worse
Outlook 2020:Uncertain
Outlook 2020:
Transition toRenewable Energy
Uncertain
?
Renewable Energy:is energy which comes from natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat.
16%
Outlook 2020:
Transition toRenewable Energy
Uncertain
? ?People living in
democratic countries
Democracy:is a form of government in which all adult citizens have an equal say in the decisions that affect their lives.
123 (democratic countries out of 195 total)
Democratic Countries
Electoral democracies:
Outlook 2020:
Transition toRenewable Energy
Uncertain
? ?People living in
democratic countries
?Forest land
Deforestation:is the removal of a forest where the land is converted to a non-forest use.
Deforestation:Yearly an area larger thanTaiwan
Uncertain2020
Outlook 2020:
Transition toRenewable Energy
Uncertain
? ?People living in
democratic countries
?Forest land
How to Improve
Transnational:going beyond national boundaries.
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For more information:World Future Society:http://www.wfs.orgThe Millennium Project:http://www.millennium-project.org