Stan Caris’s2015 Belmont StakesChecklist and Selections

American Pharoah is my checklist leader with 13 points and will likely go off the odds-on favorite. Unfortunately the Belmont Stakes has been very unkind to thoroughbreds trying to capture the Tri-ple Crown. Running in all three legs of the Triple Crown within a 5 week period is asking too much of a horse. It is a prac-tice that is almost never seen today with the exception of those going for glory in the Belmont Stakes after capturing the Derby and Preakness.

Madefromlucky is the second choice on my checklist with 11 points. He carries Buckpasser in the X passing position and also qualified on my final fraction indica-tor. This indicator (combining Buckpass-er in the X with fast final fractions) has accounted for 8 Belmont winners since 1989 and has a very strong impact value of 2.88. Madefromlucky is also a member of the powerful Raise A Native sire line.

Mubtaahij just missed qualifying on my final fraction indicator. He romped in the UAE Derby in Dubai while running the

Handicapping The Belmont Stakesby Stanley Caris

last 3/16 in 18 4/5 seconds and winning by 8 lengths. He too is a member of the powerful Raise A Native sire line.

Tale of Verve just misses qualifying on several indicators. He carries Buckpasser in the X passing position along with the strong conduit mare, Popinjay, in tail fe-male. He is an improving thoroughbred who carries Classic/Solid chef Nijinsky as his third damsire and Classic/Solid chef Herbager as his fourth damsire. He should have the stamina to finish strongly in the Belmont at 1 ½ miles.

Frosted is third choice on my checklist and also has good breeding for the Bel-mont distance.

Longshot Recommendations: Made-fromlucky, Tale of Verve and Mubtaahij.

Exacta Recommendations: An exacta box of the following 5 horses: American Pharoah, Madefromlucky, Tale of Verve, Mubtaahij and Frosted.

Trifecta Recommendations: A trifecta key with Madefromlucky in the win posi-tion with the other 7 horses in the place and show positions.

A Trifecta Key with Mubtaahij in the WIN position with the other 7 horses in the place and show positions.

A Trifecta Key with the other 7 horses in the WIN position with Tale of Verve in the place position with the other 7 horses in the show position.

Superfecta Recommendations: a Super-fecta Key of Madefromlucky in the win position with the other 7 horses in the place, show and fourth positions.

A Superfecta Key of Mubtaahij in the win position with the other 7 horses in the place and show and fourth positions

In Case of a Sloppy or Muddy Track:I recommend an exacta box of American Pharoah, Madefromlucky, Tale of Verve and Materiality.

Belmont Checkist 2015 F92 BU RF RN/ND ES CM Total Conduit Mare

American Pharoah 2 0 4 5 2 0 13Madefromlucky 2 3 4 0 2 0 11Frosted 2 0 0 0 2 0 4Mubtaahij 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Materiality 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Tale of Verve 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PopinjayFrammento 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Keen Ice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Note: I have made an addition to the 7th rule under Belmont Indicator #1. That rule now reads as follows: the runner must not be a frontrunner in the race that qualifies it on final fraction time unless it shows the ability to gain ground from the 6 furlong point to the finish of another 9 furlong race.

Belmont Indicator 1 F92 = Give 2 points to all runners that achieve the following: 1) A final eighth of a mile in 12 3/5 or less or a final 3 furlongs in 37 4/5 or less in a graded stake at 9 furlongs at age 3 or a final quarter of the Kentucky Derby in 25 2/5 or less or a final 3/16 of the Preakness in 19 1/5 or less. 2) the runner must have a 92 or higher Beyer figure in at least one of its last two graded stakes at 9 furlongs or more 3)the runner must not show a loss of ground of 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong stake or from the mile call to the finish of the Preakness if either of these races are used to qualify it on final fraction time. Any loss of ground

Codes for 6 Belmont Indicatorsin the Kentucky Derby is acceptable. 4) the runner must be no worse than fourth in its last start unless it was the Kentucky Derby 5) If the runner was worse than fourth in the Kentucky Derby it must be no worse than third in its first start after the Derby or in its last start before the Kentucky Der-by 6) the runner must be no worse than fourth in its race that qualifies it on final fraction times. 7) the runner must not be the frontrunner in the race that qualifies it on final fraction time unless it shows the ability to gain ground from the 6 furlong point to the finish of another 9 furlong race 8) races over polytracks were omitted from this study

Belmont Indicator #2 BU = Give 3 points to all horses that carry Buckpasser in the X passing position if they also qualify on all rules found in Belmont Indicator #1.

Belmont Indicator #3 RF = Give 4 points to all horses carrying the Raise A Native sire line provided that they qualify on all

rules found in Belmont Indicator #1.

Belmont Indicator #4 RN/ND = Give 5 points to all horses that carry the Raise A Native Sireline and the Northern Dancer Broodmare Sireline if they qualify on all rules found in Belmont Indicator #1.

Belmont Indicator #5 ES = Give 2 points to all horses that within 3 ½ lengths of the leader at the six furlong call of a 9 furlong graded stake or were within 3 ½ lengths of the leader of the Preakness at the mile call provided that they also qualify on all the rules found in Belmont Indicator #1.

Belmont Indicator #6 CM = Give 2 points to all runners that carry one of our special conduit mares in tail-female provided that they qualify on all the rules found in Bel-mont Indicator #1.