ST. LOUIS HOMICIDESSHAWN RAKERS, RENITA REED, ABIGAIL RUSNICA, JOSEPH SCHMOELE, DAVID WILHELM

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

• St. Louis is rated #4 Deadliest city in 2012 according to PolicyMic with 113 murders.

• The number of murders has decreased by half over the past 20 years.

• The homicide rate is so high because the city has not grown beyond its restrictive borders.• If the safer suburbs were counted in the city’s crime

statistics, it would be rated much lower.

METHODSWhat outside factors could have

effects on the homicide rate?

• Weather & Seasons

• Home Values

• Food Deserts

• Income

• Vacancies

WEATHER & SEASONS• Do really cold or hot temperatures

cause the homicide rate to fluctuate?• Generally, homicides increase during summer months.• Assumption: during winter more people stay inside.

HOME VALUESNegative correlation between home value and homicides.• As home values decrease, homicides increase• Correlation: - .51

Home values of less than $100,000 appear to account for the majority of homicides.

HOME VALUES

$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,0000

10

20

30

40

50

60 Homicides

FOOD DESERTS• What is a food desert?• A geographic area where affordable & healthy food is

difficult to obtain.

• Food deserts and community

• Healthy Corner Store project

• Addition of new stores

HEALTHY CORNER STORE PROJECTRanks of Total Homicides:• Jeff Vanderlou #1

• Dutchtown #6

• Walnut Park East #17

• West End #21

• Benton Park West #23

• Forest Park East #63

• Shaw #66

NEW GROCERY STORES DOWNTOWN

• Aldi by The Loop

• Save A Lot in Jefferson Commons

• Fields Foods by Soulard

• Schnucks Culinaria

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME

• Economic divisions between neighborhoods in north St. Louis and south St. Louis.

• Economic restraints in neighborhoods with lower levels of household income coincide with homicides in that area.

MEDIAN INCOME VS. HOMICIDES

• Correlation is -0.41

• As median incomes decrease, homicides increase for that area.

• Concentrated areas in south city around Dutchtown, Gravois Park and Benton Park West have above average incomes and above average homicides.

HIGHEST AND LOWEST MEDIAN INCOMES

Top 5:

• Lindenwood Park• St. Louis Hills• Ellendale• Princeton Heights• Clifton Heights

Lowest 5:• Columbus Square• Near N. Riverfront• St. Louis Place• Old N. St. Louis• Jeff Vanderlou

VACANT HOMES

CORRELATION

DEPLOY RESOURCESHot Spot Policing

• North Riverfront, Fountain Park, Kingsway West, O’Fallon, The Ville, Fairground Neighborhood, Baden, Walnut Park East, Penrose, Lewis Place, Mark Twain, Walnut Park West, Wells-Goodfellow, North Point, Patch, Hyde Park, Dutchtown, Marine Villa, Carondelet, Mount Pleasant, Cheltenham, Bevo Mill, Hamilton Heights, Kingsway East, Jeff Vander Lou, West End, Benton Park West, and Ellendale

PREDICTION

Assumptions:

• No unexpected or unusual events are expected to radically modify the current trend.

• Hot Spot Policing will not dramatically alter the homicide rate.

PREDICTION

Total Homicides for 2014: 128

CONCLUSION• After brainstorming and researching a variety of possible factors that could effect the homicide rate in St. Louis for 2014, we found that though there was much correlation between the chosen topics, there wasn’t direct causation.

• Using the homicide data from the years 2008-2013, as well as the months of January & February for 2014, we were able to make our prediction.

QUESTIONS?