sst in the ct, tnc workshop, brisbane, may2010 sea surface temperature in the coral triangle scott...
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SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
Sea Surface Temperature in the Coral Triangle
Scott F. Heron, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
presenting the work of many others
Sea Surface Temperature in the Coral Triangle
Scott F. Heron, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
presenting the work of many others
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
ERSST (2° grid)
HadISST (1° grid)
Eakin et al. (2009)
Long-term SST, >100km scale, monthlyLong-term SST, >100km scale, monthly
Heron et al. (2008)
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
Regional trend (9 sites)0.232 ± 0.078 °C/dec
Global trend (50 sites)0.237 ± 0.061 °C/dec
(Eakin et al. 2009)
Recent SST, ~50km scale, twice-weeklyRecent SST, ~50km scale, twice-weekly
SST trendPeñaflor et al. 2009
% reef pixels
DHW > 0 DHW ≥ 4
Peñaflor et al. 2009
85-
9596
-06
# stress events
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
CT regions – SST, fish, combinedCT regions – SST, fish, combined
Green and Mous 2008
Peñaflor et al. 2009
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
New SST capacity, 11km scale, dailyNew SST capacity, 11km scale, daily
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
Recent SST, 4km scale, retrospectiveRecent SST, 4km scale, retrospectiveStrong et al. 2009
85-95 96-06
Selig et al. 2010
CoRTAD
TSA
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
30.84 °C
3.48 °C
Recent SST, 1km scale, dailyRecent SST, 1km scale, daily
imos.org.au
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
Currents + Sea-level connectivity residence time search and rescue tidal variation
thermal capacitance
MPA Modelling, 250m scale - PalauMPA Modelling, 250m scale - Palau
TC
Low
High
3u
h
SST
High
Low
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
MPA Modelling, 30m scale – Heron IslandMPA Modelling, 30m scale – Heron Island
RegionalIntermediate
Local
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
Climate Modelling, 30m downscaling – Heron IslandClimate Modelling, 30m downscaling – Heron Island
• Same spatial patterns• Temperature increase
(per climate model)
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
Low chronicLow acute
High chronicLow acute
Low chronicHigh acute
High chronicHigh acute
acute stress
chro
nic
str
ess
MPA design – satellite historyMPA design – satellite history
Maximumof the
MonthlyMeans
Anomaly during bleachingMumby et al., in review
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
Low chronicLow acute
Low chronicHigh acute
High chronicHigh acute
acute stress
chro
nic
str
ess
MPA design – satellite historyMPA design – satellite history
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
Low chronicLow acute
Low chronicHigh acute
acute stress
chro
nic
str
ess
MPA design – satellite historyMPA design – satellite history
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
Low chronicHigh acute
acute stress
chro
nic
str
ess
MPA design – satellite historyMPA design – satellite history
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
acute stress
chro
nic
str
ess
MPA design – satellite historyMPA design – satellite history
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
chro
nic
stre
ss
acute stress
chro
nic
acute
MPA design – satellite historyMPA design – satellite history
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
Thermal history for each site was determined
Montastraea and gorgonian reefs were identified from the national habitat map
286 polygons were created containing these sites
chro
nic
acute
MPA design – satellite history, BahamasMPA design – satellite history, Bahamas
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
chro
nic
acute
945 km
Cowen R.K., et al.(2006)
MPA design – satellite history + connectivityMPA design – satellite history + connectivity
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
Ganachaud et al. 2010
AR4 streamfunction changes A2 in 2090, SverdrupsAR4 streamfunction changes A2 in 2090, Sverdrups
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
Pacific Sea Level AnomaliesPacific Sea Level Anomalies
C. Steinberg, pers. comm.
SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
Craig Steinberg, AIMS
Al Strong, NOAA CRW
Mark Eakin, NOAA CRW