ssppiicccee ess · 2012. 3. 31. · open interest volume price stock positions at the ncdex...
TRANSCRIPT
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A
Technical Recommendations
Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation
Pepper NCDEX Apr-12 Sell in the range 40200-40300 TP 37900/36200 SL 42365
Jeera NCDEX Apr-12 Sell in the range 12230-12270 TP 11770 SL
12475
TMC NCDEX Apr-12 Trading Range: 4050 – 4340
Chilli NCDEX Apr-12 Buy above 5530 TP 5765/5900 SL 5340
Cardamom MCX Apr-12 Trading Range: 1120 – 1215
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Pepper
Review
Pepper prices witnessed huge fall on heavy long liquidation during lat week. Prices at future started the week slightly
positive note on taking recovery on previous losses but failed to sustain the gains and resumed down trend. Reports of
sluggish activity at spot front as most of the traders were busy with financial year closing further added to the down
side. Huge volatility witnessed in futures prices on speculative activities kept investors away from market which
further added to the down side. Therefore, on cues from spot activity futures remained down and ended the week on
negative note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 41400 42420 38020 38540 -7.05 25169 -33.33 4594 -21.54May-12 42500 43300 38470 39105 -7.55 7817 -10.15 2791 10.67Jun-12 43145 43740 39185 39650 -7.55 682 -26.11 277 6.13
Note: Prices are updated till 1:00 pm. On Saturday
Outlook
Pepper prices are expected to continue the down trend on back of prevailing weak global fundamentals. Rising arrivals
from Vietnam are likely to weigh on global pepper prices. According to trade sources, spot market is expected to
become active from 3rd April after financial closing. Therefore, resumed activity at spot front might support the prices
to recover from earlier losses. However, this recovery might remain short live as most of the overseas buyers are
staying away amid prevailing uncertainty in Indian prices. Indian parity in international pepper market has declined
but still it is higher from other origins which might keep prices under pressure.
Factors to watch out
Average daily prices at spot market of Kochi increased to `39,000 and `40,000 per quintal but in same week shaded
all gains and closed at `37,000 and `38,500 per quintal for Ungarbled and MG-1 grade respectively
Prices in all the major growing countries like Indonesia, India, and Sri Lanka fell drastically amid pick up in supplies
from Vietnam
As per exchange rules and regulations, additional margin of 5% from both long and short side will be reduced but
special margin of 10% wil imposed on all long side from April 3rd, 2012 which might have negative impact on prices
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000Pepper Spread : May - Apr
Contango
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38500
40500
42500
44500
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000PVO Analysis - Pepper
Open Interest Volume Price
Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses were at 2022 tonnes as on March 29, 2011
As per Spices Board data, international price of pepper in New York market remained steady to $7.83 per kg during
the week ended March 23rd , 2012 but quoted higher against $5.69 per kg quoted in the same period last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 32500 35260 36900 38540 41300 44060 45700May-12 32453 35462 37283 39105 42113 45122 46943Jun-12 33422 36303 37977 39650 42532 45413 47087
NCDEX
Derivative Analysis
The NCDEX Pepper April contract prices, volumes and
open interest are declining continuously that means
investors are exiting their positions which indicates a
weakness in market
Technical
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Jeera
Review
Jeera prices traded witnessed huge volatility during the week ended on Mar. 31st. Futures started the week on negative
note extending the down trend. Huge arrivals amid peak arrival season along with subdued domestic and export
demand further added to the down side. However, sudden fall in arrivals supported the prices to recover from losses.
From Thursday market remained closed due to financial year closing which also cushioned prices. However, overall
trend remained weak at futures front and futures prices ended the week on slightly lower note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 11950 12270 11762.5 11940 -0.35 38973 -39.43 14469 -5.98May-12 12235 12580 12060 12237.5 -0.20 15465 -26.51 10143 6.99Jun-12 12320 12860 12300 12585 0.36 2358 1.55 876 60.96
Note: Prices are updated till 1:00 pm. On Saturday
Outlook
Jeera prices are projected to trade on lower note on back of prevailing sluggish demand across the spot markets.
Physical market traders are expecting a small recovery in prices on Monday as spot market will open after 4 days off.
On Other hand, farmers are likely to bring huge supplies to the market in anticipation of further fall in prices. Therefore,
prices are expected to trade on volatile note prevailing concerns. Nonetheless, overall trend is projected to remain
biased towards down side amid lack of bulk buying activity.
Factors to watch out
Arrivals at spot market of Unjha are hovering in the range of 22000-35000 bags against 38000-45000 bags reported
during previous week (1 bag= 60 Kg)
Despite the poor sowing progress in Syria and Turkey market activity is remaining weak amid arrival pressure
Indian jeera exports are increasing steadily but overall sentiments are still weak which might keep prices under
pressure
According to sources, till April arrivals pressure is likely to remain intact as production in current season is much
higher than previous 3-4 years ( 40-45 lakh bags production is estimated)
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jeera Spread : May - Apr
Contango
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11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
PVO Analysis - Jeera
Open Interest Volume Price
NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 10124 tonnes as on March 29, 2011
As per Spices Board data, international price of jeera in New York market declined to $3.75 per kg during the week
ended march 23rd, 2012 however, against $3.84 per kg in the same period last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 11204 11483 11712 11940 12219 12498 12727May-12 11485 11773 12005 12238 12525 12813 13045Jun-12 11743 12022 12303 12585 12863 13142 13423
NCDEX
Derivative Analysis
The NCDEX jeera April contract prices, volumes and
open interest are declining continuously that means
investors are exiting their positions which indicates a
weakness in market
Technical
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Turmeric
Review
NCDEX turmeric prices continued the downtrend on back of huge arrivals witnessed at domestic markets across the
countries. From starting of the week prices traded down in continuation of bearish trend. Poor buying interest from
both bulk buyers and exporters kept prices under pressure. However, later on futures took smart recovery on fresh
buying from local masla buyers ahead of market close but prices failed to sustain the gains. Farmers increased supplies
to the market which was resulted in prices fall. Therefore, on cues from spot market activities futures prices remain
down and ended the week on negative note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 4310 4348 4154 4190 -2.96 40750 -46.84 20015 0.58May-12 4390 4406 4232 4266 -2.69 17965 -52.53 14870 -1.26Jun-12 4496 4502 4276 4334 -4.07 4040 -26.01 5160 -1.71
Note: Prices are updated till 1:00 pm. On Saturday
Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected to witness smart recovery on lower level buying in absence of any cues from Spot market.
Spot market of Erode will be closed until 8th April. Therefore, no arrival pressure will be there which might support the
prices to recover. Traders are expecting during the 2nd week the prices may go up, as they will get fresh orders from
North India in the first week of April. However, concerns regarding increasing harvesting activity in major growing
regions of Tamil Nadu might limit huge gains.
Factors to watch out
As per trade sources, daily arrivals at spot market of Erode increased to 21,000 bags while selling remained 40-60%
of total arrivals (1bag=70Kg.)
Spot market of Erode will be closed from March 31 to April 8 for Erode Periya, Chinna and Vaikkal Mariamman
festivals
Spot market of Nizamabad and Sangli will resume trade activity from April 2nd onwards
NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 2946 tonnes as on March 29, 2011
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Turmeric Spread : May - Apr
Contango
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4100
4300
4500
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000 PVO Analysis - Turmeric
Open Interest Volume Price
As per Spices Board data, international price of Turmeric in New York market remained unchanged to $5.62 per kg
during the week ended March 23rd, 2011 lower from $5.29 per kg quoted in the same period last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 3919 4037 4113 4190 4307 4425 4501May-12 4023 4127 4197 4266 4371 4475 4545Jun-12 4013 4145 4239 4334 4465 4597 4691
NCDEX
Derivative Analysis
The NCDEX Turmeric April contract prices and
volumes have declined while open interest have
increased, It is a good indication that a sharp rally
against downtrend will develop creating a sell point
for downtrend.
Technical
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Chilli
Review
Chilli prices witnessed small recovery during lat week after falling continuously for 3 weeks. Futures started the week
on positive note taking recovery on lower level buying. However, later on prices reversed the trend and witnessed
corrections amid sluggish spot market activity. Due to financial year closing most of the market players stayed away
from market Therefore, on cues from spot activity, futures prices traded in a range bound manner and ended the week
on flat to slightly positive note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 5372 5528 5340 5436 0.70 8325 -40.85 6465 -2.85Jun-12 5742 5914 5734 5796 -0.03 2685 -36.97 3680 8.88Jul-12 6010 6148 5962 6000 0.33 240 65.52 175 66.67
Note: Prices are updated till 1:00 pm. On Saturday
Outlook
Chilli prices are expected to trade in a range bound to positive note in absence of any fresh cues at spot market.
According to trade source, overall trend is very subdued at spot market amid rise in mercury levels which is hampering
market activity. However, a small recovery on short covering can be seen during the week but this recovery might not
sustain due to poor domestic and export front demand. From May onwards spot market will be closed for 1 month due
to peak summer month therefore, spot market of Guntur might witness huge arrivals which might keep prices under
pressure.
Factors to watch out
Arrivals at spot market of Guntur are hovering in the range of 60,000 - 80,000 bags (1 bag=40Kg.)
As pr data released by spices Board, Chilli exports from Apr-11 to Jan-12 were reported at 1,69,500 tones down by
17% Y/Y
Chilli production estimates for this season is estimated around 12.5-13 lakh tonnes v/s 10.5- 11 lakh tones last year
NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 1760 tonnes as on March 22 2011
350
370
390
410
430
450Chilli spread : Jun - Apr
Contango
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5200
5400
5600
5800
-400
800
2000
3200
4400
5600
6800
8000PVO Analysis - Chilli
Open Interest Volume Price
As per Spices Board data, international price of chilli in New York market declined to $3.20 per kg during the week
ended March 16th, 2011 down against $3.64 per kg quoted in the same period last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 5153 5247 5341 5436 5529 5623 5717Jun-12 5535 5635 5715 5796 5895 5995 6075Jul-12 5739 5851 5925 6000 6111 6223 6297
NCDEX
Derivative Analysis
The NCDEX chilli April contract prices have increased
while volumes and open interest are falling, that means
market is running out of traders willing to open or hold
an open long/buy. Traders are liquidating both loosing
short positions & closing winning long positions.
Technical
Chilli prices have taken a support from primary trend-line and ended in a marginally positive zone on W-o-W basis.
During the week prices open on a
weaker note by continuing its privileged
trend, but staged a strong support from
raising trend line prices ended up by 1%
from last week’s closing prices.
According to daily continuation chart
5530 levels are witnessing a strong
resistance on higher side any sustainable
close above the will extend the rally
towards the next resistance of 5765
which is also coincides with 38.2%
Fibonacci levels of the previous fall,
starts from 6464 to 5340 levels.
However, on the downside 5340 levels
act as an immediate support fill below
the same will dampen our bullish view and intact the bearish trend for near-term perspective.
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Cardamom
Review
Cardamom futures witnessed huge losses on profit booking at higher levels during the week ended on Mar. 31st. From
opening on the session prices remain under pressure. Declining prices at spot front also weighed on sentiments.
However, arrivals at spot auctions continuously declined which limited losses later in the week. However, overall trend
remained bearish later on amid long liquidation due to financial year closing. Thus, on cues from spot activity futures
prices traded slightly up towards the end of the week but failed to recover from the losses and ended on negative note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 1235 1240 1129.2 1170.4 -4.81 51004 -45.27 3894 -32.65May-12 1347 1359 1258.5 1317 -1.83 21610 -27.89 3398 56.73Jun-12 1115 1347 1114.5 1347 -2.22 3026 -32.69 632 -6.76
Note: Prices are updated till 1:00 pm. On Saturday
Outlook Cardamom futures are expected to recover in coming week on back of declining arrivals across the spot markets.
According to traders, prevailing dryer weather is creating concerns for next season crop and might delay the cultivation
activities. Demand from exporters is also expected to pick after financial year closing which might support cardamom
prices to trade up.
Factors to watch out
Arrivals Daily auction has declined to 40-53 tonnes while average prices hovered in the range of Rs. 712-935 per
Kg.
Total Arrival during lat week was reported around 2,50,301 Kg. against 4,73,682 Kg. down by 47% W/W
As pr data released by spices Board, cardamom exports from Apr-11 to Jan-12 were reported at 3,900 tones up by
391% Y/Y
Total arrivals during the current season from August 1, 2011 to March 11, 2012 was at 14,264 tonnes and the sales
at 13,848 tonnes as against 7,684 tonnes of arrivals and 7,499 tonnes sales in the same period last year
MCX warehouse stocks of Cardamom as on March 30, 2011 were 26.8 tonnes
50
70
90
110
130
150
170Cardamom Spread : May - Apr
Contango
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1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1000
4000
7000
10000
13000
16000
19000
22000
25000PVO Analysis - Cardamom
Open Interest Volume Price
As per Spices Board data, international price of Cardamom in Saudi Arabia market improved to $26.67 per kg
during the week ended March 23rd , 2011; however, it was lower than $27.87 per kg quoted in the same period
last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 1009 1069 1120 1170 1231 1291 1341May-12 1164 1211 1264 1317 1365 1412 1465Jun-12 960 1037 1192 1347 1425 1502 1657
NCDEX
Derivative Analysis
The MCX cardamom April contract prices, volumes
and open interest have declined, that means
investors have sold their positions and now any
change in prices on positive side might reverse the
trend for short term.
Technical
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