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SSPP Topic Group. Mainstream Pupil Number Forecasting System Kate Ma Planning Officer, School Places Team. Outline Programme. Overview of Forecasting System Objective & Purpose Methodology Producing Pupil Forecasts Analysis Demonstration. Overview of the Forecasting System. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
SSPP Topic Group
Mainstream Pupil Number Forecasting System
Kate Ma Planning Officer, School Places Team
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Outline Programme
• Overview of Forecasting System
• Objective & Purpose
• Methodology
• Producing Pupil Forecasts
• Analysis
• Demonstration
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Overview of the Forecasting System
• Introduced in 2003
• Software system - Oracle database
• User web interface
• Methodology based on Audit Commission’s recommendations for pupil forecasting
• Produces annual pupil forecasts
• Forecast modelling
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Objectives & Purpose of Forecasting
• To project pupil numbers at planning area level to inform school place planning activity, e.g.
- As a tool to identify areas of rising surplus places
- Setting published admission numbers
- Reporting to DfES on projected pupil numbers, HCC wide
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Forecast Methodology
• Forecasts are based on 22 education planning areas (secondary)
• These are sub divided into primary planning areas
• Updated data sets are imported into the forecasting system in April each year
• From these data sets, the annual pupil forecasts are produced
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Annual Data Imports
• Actual Pupil Numbers (PLASC) - Unique pupil number, year group, their school now and last year.
• GP Registrations (Health Authority) - Postcodes and dates of birth
• New Housing Completions Predictions (Environment Department Database)
• Postcode file
• School data
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Simplified flow chart of the forecasting process 7
Data from external Source
Data Created in Software
Complete Forecast
PRIMARYuses
GP Data.
JanuaryPupil
Count.
To Predictfuture
ReceptionClasses
Create AreaForecasts
And split down toSchools
Compare thisyear's Actuals with
previous yearsForecast
ProduceForecastReport
Produce VarianceReport
Used to improveforecast accuracy
To PredictNew Pupils
New HousingCompletions
SECONDARYPrevious
MovementPatterns
To Predictfuture
AdmissionClasses
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Data set samples – Pupil Data
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Data sets – Housing Development Description
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Data sets – Housing Development House Type
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Data sets – Housing Development Completion Forecast
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Housing Developments
• Source: Environment Department
• Contains all new developments from Local Plan allocations through to planning permissions
• Identified by number of bedrooms and geographical location
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
New Housing Pupil Yield
No of BedroomsNo of Primary per
1000
No of Secondary per 1000
Unknown/0Bed 251 130
1Bed 10 10
2Bed 61 34
3Bed 245 124
4Bed 348 167
5+Bed 542 291
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
2006/7 Pupil Forecasts
• 2006/7 Pupil Forecast- Secondary & Primary- Used to inform the planning process at planning area level
• Make-Up of 2006/7 Forecast- Secondary & Primary- Admissions/Births/Surviving Cohorts/Pupils from new housing
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Analysis of projections prior to publication
• Variance Analysis – by area – under/over estimations
Correlation between current cohort and future projections
• Analysis of 0 – 4 year old data
• Local Intelligence
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Forecasting System Demonstration
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
Harpenden Secondary population trendsHarpenden Secondary Pupils Actual & Forecast
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,700
2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Tota
l NO
R
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
2006/7 Harpenden Yr 7 ForecastsHarpenden Admissions to Year 7 (2006/7 Secondary Forecast) against Primary Year 6 NOR
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
No
of p
upils
Forecast Admissions to Year 7
Actual Admissions to Year 7
Pupils in previous Year 6 inHarpenden primary schools
Hertfordshire County Councilwww.hertsdirect.org
2006/7 Forecast Reception Trends - Harpenden
2006/7 Primary Forecast - Admissions to Reception and GP registration data
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
No
of c
hild
ren
GP Registration data
2006/7 ReceptionForecasts