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Factors for NFL Quarterback Success in First Year StartingTexas A&M Sports Analytics Group - Football Division

The football division of the Texas A&M Sports Analytics Group recently completed an

introductory analysis of quarterbacks in the National Football League. The analysis focused on

determining common factors that led to quarterback success in the first year of starting.

Using marginal model plots and a variant of binomial regression the group centered on 9

possible factors triggering success (as measured by the DVOA metric from FootballOutsiders.com):

1. Height2. Years before starting3. Games played before starting4. Coaches Win Percentage5. Playing in a Dome6.

Miles from College Town

7. GDP rank of home state8. Adjusted yards/attempt in college9. Completion percentage in college

The analysis consisted of data collected on all quarterbacks who had their first start

between1992 and 2010 and played at least 8 games in total in their career (to cancel out one time

starters).

After analyzing the plots and adjusting our model, only two of the factors showed any

significance in relation to quarterback success (high DVOA): Years before starting and Coaches Win

Percentage.

This was in interesting development as many teams spend millions of dollars and countless

scouting hours looking for the next great quarterback. The data gives credence to the theory that

success in such a leadership and experience driven role as a starting quarterback is not quantifiable with

collegiate data.

Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers is a good example of the groups theory that time spent

learning the system and developing mentally and emotionally are the only real ways a team can hope to

improve a new quarterbacks play. Looking for some sign of future NFL success from college data is

inefficient.

After discussion, the groups recommendation to teams would be to continually draft

quarterbacks in the 4th

to 5th

round and try them out every year. The only sign of future success for

quarterbacks in the NFL appears to be how they perform in the league. The more quarterbacks brought

in at a low cost will increase the likelihood of a team making a correct and economically efficient

selection of their future starter.