spectrum allocation, infrastructure sharing and industry consolidation. hong kong, january 2014
DESCRIPTION
Chris Buist's presentation to the TMT M&A Forum in Hong Kong, January 2014: Mobile data traffic is doubling every two years, driven by smartphones and LTE. EBITDA will be squeezed and ROI will fall unless operators act now to increase capacity and bandwidth to respond to demand. Network sharing and industry consolidation will change the face of the industry. Coleago helps operators respond to these challenges.TRANSCRIPT
The Data TsunamiSpectrum Allocation, Infrastructure Sharing and Industry Consolidation
Mobile data traffic is doubling every two years
© Copyright Coleago 2014
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 1
Source: Ericsson (November 2013)
Smartphones and LTE drive traffic growth
© Copyright Coleago 2014
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 2
Source: Ericsson (November 2013)
Asia Pacific subscriptions (m)
64%
Source: Ericsson (November 2013)
85%
Asia-Pacific traffic will grow 11x by 2019
© Copyright Coleago 2014
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 3
Operators need to act now
Increase revenues?
� Data tariffs that reflect bandwidth and volume needs
� New services
Increase capacity and bandwidth to respond to demand
� Re-farm spectrum
� Add small cells
� Invest in transmission
� More spectrum
� Introduce LTE and LTE-A
Revenues will not keep pace with costs
� Engage Managed Service providers
� Share network infrastructure
� Merge or acquire
© Copyright Coleago 2014
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 4
$
Time
Costs
Active RAN sharing on the increase?
� Technology/licence-driven
� Spectrum sharing is in the minority
� Few regulators set policy
� A few cases of PPP wholesale networks
© Copyright Coleago 2014
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 5
Source: Coleago
Will 2014 show an uptick in M&A?
� Chart only shows intra-country M&A excluding Fixed/Cable-Fixed/Cable M&A
� Increasing number of MNO-MNO M&A
� Increasing number of MNO-Fixed/Cable acquisitions
© Copyright Coleago 2014
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 6
Source: Coleago
Regulators have a difficult balancing act
© Copyright Coleago 2014
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 7
ClarityStability
How Coleago helps operators
Spectrum
� Spectrum strategy, valuation and auction support
� More than 50 projects worldwide, on every continent
M&A
� Strategy and business planning
� DD
� Implementation planning/execution
� More than 20 projects to date
Network sharing
� From feasibility analysis through to implementation
� Projects completed in 8 markets
We've written the book!
© Copyright Coleago 2014
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 8
Key messages
© Copyright Coleago 2014
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 9
Data traffic will increase dramatically
$
Time
Costs
EBITDA will be squeezed and ROI will fall unless operators act now
Sharing and consolidation will change the face of the industry
Coleago helps operators respond to these challenges
Thank you
Recent relevant reports
� Ericsson Mobility Report, Nov. 2013, www.ericsson.com/mobility-report
� Ericsson Mobility Report Appendix, Northeast Asia, Nov. 2013
© Copyright Coleago 2014
TMT Finance & Investment - Asia 2014 - Hong Kong 10
Chris Buist
+43 664 352 1068chris.buist @coleago.comwww.coleago.com
DirectorColeago Consulting Ltd