special weather briefing 01/07/2013 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Special Weather BriefingSpecial Weather Briefing01/07/201301/07/2013

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

Bill ParkerBill ParkerWarning Coordination MeteorologistWarning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Overview Tuesday: Tuesday:

An Upper Low moves into Old Mexico and begins to send copious amounts An Upper Low moves into Old Mexico and begins to send copious amounts of moisture back to the ArkLaTexof moisture back to the ArkLaTex

Rain begins in East Texas midday Tuesday… and reaches 100 Percent by Rain begins in East Texas midday Tuesday… and reaches 100 Percent by Tuesday Night areawideTuesday Night areawide

Flash Flooding could be an issue as early as Tuesday Night???Flash Flooding could be an issue as early as Tuesday Night???

Wednesday: Wednesday: A Surface Low develops in South Texas and lifts toward the ArkLatex with A Surface Low develops in South Texas and lifts toward the ArkLatex with

an associated Warm Frontan associated Warm Front Severe Weather likely South of the Warm Front Severe Weather likely South of the Warm Front Flash Flooding Flash Flooding / / Damaging Straight Line Winds Damaging Straight Line Winds / / Isolated Tornadoes Isolated Tornadoes / / Small Small

HailHail

Thursday:Thursday: Rain slowly ending from west to east across the Area Rain slowly ending from west to east across the Area 3 – 5 inch Totals expected by end of event (Could be Higher) 3 – 5 inch Totals expected by end of event (Could be Higher) Some Rivers may need to be WatchedSome Rivers may need to be Watched This event could end up being more of a benefit than a Hazard???This event could end up being more of a benefit than a Hazard???


National Water Vapor National Water Vapor ImageryImagery


L

L L L

H

H

TuesdayTuesday


Tuesday NightTuesday Night


WednesdayWednesday


SVR Threat Will Be South of Warm Front

Wed Afternoon

ThursdayThursday


SVR Threat Will Be South of Warm Front

SVR Wx Threat Wed Night/Thursday

Models Rainfall Models Rainfall GuidanceGuidance


GFS ECMWF

HPC Days 1-3 QPFHPC Days 1-3 QPF


Excessive Rainfall Excessive Rainfall Outlook Outlook


SPC Day 3 Categorical SPC Day 3 Categorical OutlookOutlook


Potential River Potential River Problems??? Problems???


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special weather briefing 01/07/2013 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Documents

special weather

south texas

louisianasvr threat

end of event

svr wx threat

night areawideflash

east texas midday

surface low