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S p a t i a l t ra n s f o r m a t i o n i n S A n c i t i e s GTAC Public Economic Winter School 2016 | Edgar Pieterse – 11 July 2016

•  Urbanisation: Basic Orientation

•  South African Urbanisation: Spatial paradox & persistent inequality

•  Policy canvass & the limits of technocracy

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U R BA N I SAT I O N R E A L I T Y C H E C K

World&Popula+on&Prospects:&The&2012&Revision,&visit&www.unpopula+on.org&

We are heading for a 10 billion plus future…

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Urbanisation by region, 1950-2050

Country status based on income per person

Urb

an p

opul

atio

n as

% o

f to

tal p

opul

atio

ns 100%&

0%&

1. LDC, e.g. Uganda, Mali

2. Low-income, e.g. Zim, Kenya

3. Lower middle-income, e.g. Ghana, India, Egypt

4. Upper middle-income, e.g. Brazil, China, South Africa, Russia

5. Upper income, e.g. G8 plus most of OECD

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Relationship between

urbanization & GNI

Urbanisation level

Per capita gross national income, 2008 in $US

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

130 1300

Percen

tage)pop

ulation)urba

nised

GDP)per)capita,)constant)2005)US$)(log)scale)

Ethiopia

UgandaMalawi

Kenya

Guinea<Bissau

Zimbabwe

Madagascar

GhanaNigeria

Cameroon

Liberia

SouthAfrica

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1,000 10,000

Percen

tage)pop

ulation)urba

nised

GDP)per)capita,)constant)2005)US$)(log)scale)

Venezuela

Mexico

Brazil

Panama

Chile

Uruguay

Colombia

Peru

EcuadorParaguay

Urbanisation and econ development in Latin America Urbanisation and economic development in Africa

Source: World Development Indicators Note: The data correspond to changes between 1985 and 2012 for each country

1750& 1850& 1950&

Pop:&423m&/&52%&urban&

Pop:&15m&/&10%&urban&

1950& 2030&Pop:&309m&/&18%&urban&

Pop:&3.9bn&/&56%&urban&

First urbanisation wave in global North

Second urbanisation wave

in global South The 2nd Urbanization wave must be managed whilst basic needs are satisfied at an unprecedented scale, economic foundations are built, and the low-carbon economic transition has to be effected!

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‘Resilient' growth (macro)

Incl

usive

grow

th (m

acro

) Liveability (micro) SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT GOALS

Human Development (education, health & social

protection)

GDP growth, job creation & resource

productivity

GHG Emission Reduction, Resource

Efficiency & Ecosystem service regeneration

Normative frame SDG era

197 282 632

854 927

33 87

414

858

1265

1950 1970 2011 2035 2050

Rural Urban

AFRICAN URBANIZATION, 1950-2050

257k%in%slums%(62%)%

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During the brutal apartheid era (1948-94), land-use planning was used to enforce racial segregation prevalent since the origins of colonial urbanism in the 17th Century. The planning and racist governmental intent proved hugely successful…

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SOUTH AFRICAN URBANISATION

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Percentage of population and growth rate of SA cities and towns

Source:&SACN&2016:&23&

“Almost half (46%) of South Africa’s pop is concentrated in the metros and their surrounds. In 2011, & just four city-regions (Gauteng, Cape Town, eThekwini and Nelson Mandela Bay) contained 42% of South Africa’s population.”

SINCE 1994, THE STATE HAS PROVIDED OVER 4 MILLION SUBSIDIES & BUILT CLOSE TO 3 MILLION UNITS…

Despite this being one of the largest and most ambitious public housing programmes in the

world, it has had the paradoxical effect of worsening urban fragmentation, segregation &

spatial inequality…

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What’s going on?

•  Public housing is on the periphery, reinforcing low-density sprawl

•  These houses depreciate rapidly and burdens households with no/little income with an unaffordable reproductive cost

•  It raises the cost threshold for connective trunk infrastructure

•  It further disconnects poor people from potential economic opportunities and deepens various lines of intra-urban inequality

•  Overall effect: worsening of the apartheid space-economy of segregation, division & fragmentation, eroding social cohesion

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In 1995, Du Noon was planned and approved for 2 936 households and a population of 14 093. By 2013, there were 16 881 households and a population of 66 6600! The infrastructure and housing were only designed for the planned population. Source: CCT, 2015

DU NOON, 2000 2012

22

DIEPSLOOT EXT. 1: 2000 - 2009

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THE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM •  South Africa is trapped in a PARADOX: the

more it pursues redistributive social policies that reduces material poverty, the more is worsens spatial inequalities, which in turn reinforces economic and cultural marginalisation.

•  Instead of confronting this policy paradox, more and more policies and programmes are allowed to proliferate creating confusion, inaction and ‘more-of-the-same’ with some tinkering on the edges…

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POLICY CANVASS

South Africa is certainly trying…

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SPLUMA

National Spatial Development Framework & Observatory

Integrated Urban Development Framework (IUDF)

Green/White Paper on Human Settlements

Powers & functions review

Grant alignment & incentivisation >> spatial targeting: USDG, PTISG, NDPG via City Support Programme & manifest in Built Environment Performance Plans

DHS National Human Settlements Spatial Master Plan

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The IUDF identifies eight levers to effect policy change premised on the belief that (1) spatial planning forms the basis for achieving integrated urban development, which

follows a specific sequence of urban policy actions: (2) integrated transport that informs (3) targeted investments into integrated human settlements, underpinned by (4) integrated infrastructure network systems and (5) efficient land governance, which all together can trigger (6) economic diversification and inclusion, and (7) empowered communities, which in turn will demand (8) deep governance reform to enable and sustain all of the above.

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•  Urban Network Strategy, as the basis for Transit Oriented Development

•  Integration Zones for spatially targeted, cross-sectoral public investment

•  Catalytic projects that are results focused, strategically located, integrated, multi-sectoral and partnership-based

CAPE TOWN CARICATURE

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Cape Town is arguably one of the most compliant metros in terms of national expectations: •  Indigents’ policy & top-up investments

through cross-subsidisation •  Utilises most of annual housing subsidies

& trying to innovative within that frame •  Aggressively pursuing BRT within a TOD

framework •  Conducting spatial-economic analysis to

improve the spatial impacts of public and private investments

MAJORITY CITY (TOWNSHIPS)

ELITE CITY (SUBURBS)

MIXED CITY

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Source: City of Cape Town, 2015

MAJORITY CITY ELITE CITY

MIXED CITY

Through TOD model…

- Basic service provision - Sites and services - Upgrading - BNG housing - Improved BRT access

- Maintain service standards & enhance infrastructure - Promote new real estate investment

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Source: BEPP, City of Cape Town, 2015

The current model of TOD development boils down to a 20-30 year agenda to lay the basis for real-estate driven urban integration and reconfiguration… IS THIS GOOD ENOUGH?

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Is it possible that we can have all the “right” policies, concepts and plans and still make no impact on the challenges facing the city?

•  What will it take for South Africa to optimise the urban dividend?

•  What is in the realm of public policy and what is not?

•  Who should take the lead?

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www.africancentreforcities.net