Spatial ICTs for risk identification and risk reduction:

Three geographic scales and three challenges

Uwe DeichmannDevelopment Research GroupWorld Bank, Washington DC

<udeichmann@worldbank.org>

International Day on Disaster Risk Reduction at the World Bank

Disaster Risk Management in the Information AgeOctober 8-9, 2008

ICTs are widely used, but challenges remain

• Successful shift from disaster response to risk reduction

• Bank support for risk analysis and risk management at all spatial scales

• Spatial ICTs play a central role

• GIS, GPS, remote sensing – linked by internet and other communication technologies

• But: Technology is not the main problem. The bottlenecks are institutional!

Bank initiatives at three geographic scales

• Global natural disaster risk

• Country catastrophic risk assessment

• Local risk identification

• Awareness raising, priority setting, screening tool

• Improving baseline information, methodologies, tools

• Support specific interventions: mitigation & transfer

The standard risk assessment modelapplies across spatial scales

Hazard probability

Exposure Vulnerability

Damages

Losses

Mitigation orrisk transfer

people, assets social/econ/physconditions

geophysicaldrivers

policy analysis, costs/benefits

e.g., average annual losses,loss exceedance curves

damage ratios

Combining information on hazards …Severe Storms, 1981 - 2000

World Bank/Columbia University: Natural Disaster Hotspots Study 2005based on storm track data compiled by UNEP-GRID GenevaCyclone Frequency

Global Analysis: Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots

… and exposure …Population distribution

… to generate risk profilesMulti-hazard mortality risk hotspots

Updated global analysis forthcoming in the

UN/WB Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2009

Country catastrophic risk assessment

• Operational risk assessments

– E.g., Central America Probabilistic Risk Assessment

– National level assessments in hotspot countries

• Knowledge management: tools and guidance

– MIRISK open source tool for risk assessment and guidelines on what to do about it

– “Guidance Note for Common Country Catastrophic Risk Assessment Methodology (C3RAM)”, GFDRR

– Post disaster information sharing: “Using Data for Disaster Response” (PREM/GFDRR)

Local risk identification:Use of very high resolution satellite data

• Image derived physical risk factors and exposure data

• Complements GPS field data collection

• Supports local risk identification

• Case studies: Legaspi (Phl) and Sana'a (Yem)

Challenges

• Capacity

– Insufficient at local levels

– Leading to highly centralized disaster management

• Coordination

– Inter-agency coordination within countries

– Internationally (UN/national/NGOs) during disaster response

• Content

– Data and tools: limited access and black box models

– Data readiness

What to do

• Capacity

– Learn from decentralization of other government functions

– Invest in learning at the local level

• Coordination

– Use mix of incentives and enforcement while minimizing coordination costs (e.g., spatial data infrastructure)

– High level agreements on binding protocols for IT use during disaster response

• Content

– Invest in data and analytical tools as public goods

– Ensure data readiness well before disaster strikes