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Spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire in Nepal

Advisor Shambhu PaudelLecturer, KAFCOL

ResearcherAshok ParajuliBsc 4th Year

Supported ByUNISDR-Regional South Asia Wildland Fire Network

Contents

1. Introduction2. Objectives3. Methodology4. Result and Discussion5. Conclusion and Recommendation6. Acknowledgement

Introduction Forest fires have been an agent of disturbance for thousands of

year

Controlled fire VS Uncontrolled Fire

No comprehensive data of fire in Nepal

MODIS : Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer 36 spectral band Images entire Earth every 1-2 days at 1 km resolution

Forest fire since 2000

Very few fires are naturally caused in Nepal (NBS, 2002)

ObjectivesGeneral Objective To find out spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire

Specific Objectives To find out the magnitude and temporal distribution pattern

of forest fire in Nepal To prepare fire risk zone To develop fire affected area model

MethodologyStudy Area

Methodology Continue

Use of Arc GISProjection with WGS 1984,44N,UTM-44N

Data obtainedfrom

NASA

Add to ARC GIS Clipping

ProjectionMergeData Analysis

Fig. Data processing

Data Acquisition and Processing

Methodology Continue

Spatial and temporal analysis1. Area calculation using ArcGIS2. Centroid point count using polygons Fire Risk Zonation1. Kernel Density Model2. KDM has been widely used for hotspot analysis and

detection (............Citation)

Development of fire burnt areas model1. .......................variables are included in Model2. Before developing model, to ensure whether there is colli-

nearity or not between variables Variance Inflation Factor(VIF) used

Result and Discussion

Continue

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1052

16791498

2865

2000

3260

1949 18852274

3287

1897 1858

3518

1198

Year

Fire

Cou

nts

Jan Feb March April May June Sep October Nov December0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

Month

Fire

Inci

dent

s

-200

5,20

09 a

nd 2

012

high

est n

o of

fire

-Mar

ch, A

pril a

nd M

ay a

re se

nsitiv

e m

onth

s

Continue

Cold season(oct-feb) Hot and dry season(jan-june) Rainy season (july-sept)0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Fire occurance a/c to season

Season

Coun

t

High Mountain

Middle Mountain

Hill

Siwalik

Terai

0 5000 10000 15000

Frequency of Fire Detection

Frequency of Fire De-tection

Phys

iogr

aphi

c R

egio

n of

Nep

al

Continue

Less precipitation

in Eastern areas

(khawas,2007)

Continue

Trans-H

imala

yan S

teppe

Alpine

Pas

ture

Blue P

ine Fore

s

Chir P

ine Fore

st

Hill Sal

Forest

Lower

Tempe

rate O

ak Fore

st

Lower

Tropica

l Sal

and M

ixed B

road l

eave

d Fore

st

Riverrin

e Fore

st

Schim

a-Cas

tanop

sis Fore

st

Fir Fore

st0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

No of Detection

No of Detection

Major Forest Types

No o

f fire

det

ectio

n (2

000-

2013

AD)

Thumb Rule: The higher the value of VIF the greater is the degree of collinearity

Multi-Collinearity Regression

Conclusion Based on GIS techniques, the study shows that there were 30220 hotspots

throughout the study period

2005, 2009 and 2012 forest fires left historically largest annual burnt area in Nepal due to severe fire occurrence.

Three active fire periods in March, April and May also triggered the largest burnt area under drought conditions

Most of the forest fires were in Himalayan region because of alpine pasture. Out of 30220 hotspots in Nepal 7283 hotspots were detected.

73.86% of fires occurred between January to June that is on Hot and Dry season.

Recommendation Special consideration must be taken by the forest department

during hot and dry season with well equipped fire crews

Number of fire lines should be increased especially in Terai region

Government should sanction more budgets for using modern technology

Fire crews should be formed at all levels include CFUG level, range post level, Ilaka forest office and district forest office level incorporating various stakeholders.

Further Research

Acknowledgement

Mr. Shambhu PaudelMr. Sundar SharmaMr. Suraj UpadhayaMr, Shraban BasnetMr. Gagan SharmaUNISDR-Regional South Asia Wildland fire NetworkKAFCOL

THANK YOU

Comments? Questions?