Space Weather Forecast With Space Weather Forecast With HMI Magnetograms: Proposed HMI Magnetograms: Proposed

data productsdata products

Yang Liu, J. T. Hoeksema, and Yang Liu, J. T. Hoeksema, and HMI TeamHMI Team

Proposed data products Proposed data products with HMI magnetograms.with HMI magnetograms.

Data products;Data products; Model products;Model products; Indices from data and modelings.Indices from data and modelings.

Data productsData products Full disk magnetograms;Full disk magnetograms;

Line-of-sight magnetograms – cadence TBD (as high as 45 Line-of-sight magnetograms – cadence TBD (as high as 45 sec).sec).

Vector magnetograms – cadence TBD (as high as 12 Vector magnetograms – cadence TBD (as high as 12 minutes).minutes).

Movie of line-of-sight magnetograms – 12 day history, Movie of line-of-sight magnetograms – 12 day history, update at TBD.update at TBD.

Active region patches;Active region patches; Vector magnetograms on patches – cadence TBD.Vector magnetograms on patches – cadence TBD. Line-of-sight magnetograms on patches –cadence TBD.Line-of-sight magnetograms on patches –cadence TBD. Movie of line-of-sight for each patch – cadence TBD.Movie of line-of-sight for each patch – cadence TBD.

Synoptic maps.Synoptic maps. Synchronic frame of radial field – update each 96 minutes Synchronic frame of radial field – update each 96 minutes

(?).(?). ……

Model productsModel products Coronal field models – cadence TBD;Coronal field models – cadence TBD;

Global – PFSS, Hybrid, MHD.Global – PFSS, Hybrid, MHD. Local – Potential field, NLFFF, MHD.Local – Potential field, NLFFF, MHD. Field lines, source surface maps, MHD quantities, Field lines, source surface maps, MHD quantities,

…… Magnetic field global harmonic coefficients;Magnetic field global harmonic coefficients; Open field footpoints – coronal holes;Open field footpoints – coronal holes; Horizontal flow from FLCT;Horizontal flow from FLCT; Velocity data from DAVE4VM/ILCT;Velocity data from DAVE4VM/ILCT; 1 AU predictions – solar wind speed, field 1 AU predictions – solar wind speed, field

polarity, field strength, …, from PFSS, MHD, polarity, field strength, …, from PFSS, MHD, ……

……

Proposed indicesProposed indices Solar active regions.Solar active regions.

Basic parameters: unsigned flux, net flux, tilt, Basic parameters: unsigned flux, net flux, tilt, separation.separation.

Solar flares.Solar flares. Indices (to be discussed in the splinter on the Thursday).Indices (to be discussed in the splinter on the Thursday).

Flares or CMEs (failed or successful eruptions);Flares or CMEs (failed or successful eruptions); Decay index of magnetic field overlying magnetic Decay index of magnetic field overlying magnetic

neutral lines.neutral lines. CMEs’ speed.CMEs’ speed.

Reconnection flux and background field configuration.Reconnection flux and background field configuration. Orientation of magnetic cloud (Yurchyshyn will Orientation of magnetic cloud (Yurchyshyn will

talk about it).talk about it). Direction of heliospheric current sheet.Direction of heliospheric current sheet.

Interplanetary magnetic field.Interplanetary magnetic field. Solar mean field and PFSS/MHD modeling.Solar mean field and PFSS/MHD modeling.

……

Basic parameters for active Basic parameters for active regionsregions

Total unsigned flux: describe the size of Total unsigned flux: describe the size of an active region (Fisher et al. 1998), and an active region (Fisher et al. 1998), and related with potential field energy; related with potential field energy;

Net flux: might indicate how much the Net flux: might indicate how much the large scale flux involved in a region. large scale flux involved in a region. CMEs are believed to be related with CMEs are believed to be related with large scale fields.large scale fields.

Basic parameters for active Basic parameters for active regions (cont.)regions (cont.)

Tilt angle: how far an active region away Tilt angle: how far an active region away from normal, might indicate how complex from normal, might indicate how complex the field configuration is.the field configuration is.

Separation: indicate how compact an Separation: indicate how compact an active region is.active region is.

From Fisher (2000)

Basic parameters for active Basic parameters for active regions (cont.)regions (cont.)

Tilt angle: how far an active region away Tilt angle: how far an active region away from normal, might indicate how complex from normal, might indicate how complex the field configuration is.the field configuration is.

Bipolar magnetic field regions (Tian et al. 2002)

Flare-productive ARs (Tian et al. 2003)

Basic parameters for active Basic parameters for active regions (cont.)regions (cont.)

Separation: indicate how compact an Separation: indicate how compact an active region is.active region is.

Wang & Sheeley (1989)

Basic parameters for active Basic parameters for active regions (cont.)regions (cont.)

FLUX FLUX (e22 (e22 Max)Max)

NET(%)NET(%) SEPARASEPARAT (Mm)T (Mm)

TILT TILT (Degree)(Degree)

FLUX/FLUX/SEPARATISEPARATIONON

ALLALL 1.37±0.91.37±0.999

29.6±23.29.6±23.99

45.1±17.45.1±17.77

10.6±31.10.6±31.22

0.034±0.00.034±0.02424

FLAREFLARE 2.74±1.32.74±1.333

20.1±18.20.1±18.44

57.0±19.57.0±19.77

9.4±35.99.4±35.9 0.053±0.00.053±0.02626

CMECME 2.48±1.22.48±1.200

31.3±23.31.3±23.66

48.8±21.48.8±21.11

--1.0±37.41.0±37.4

0.063±0.00.063±0.03535

SEPSEP 5.56±2.75.56±2.777

16.2±15.16.2±15.77

44.6±20.44.6±20.88

--22.7±56.22.7±56.22

0.223±0.10.223±0.19292

Indices for flare predictionIndices for flare prediction(details in the Thursday’s (details in the Thursday’s

splinter)splinter) Hagyard (1987), Wang et al. (1994) (with vector Hagyard (1987), Wang et al. (1994) (with vector magnetic field data): Magnetic shear along the neutral magnetic field data): Magnetic shear along the neutral lines.lines.

Falconer et al. (2002, 2005, 2006, …) (with vector field Falconer et al. (2002, 2005, 2006, …) (with vector field and line-of-sight field data): magnetic neutral line.and line-of-sight field data): magnetic neutral line.

Leka et al. (2003a,b; 2007; …), Barnes et al. (2006; Leka et al. (2003a,b; 2007; …), Barnes et al. (2006; 2008; …) (vector magnetic field data): tens of indexes 2008; …) (vector magnetic field data): tens of indexes explored.explored.

Schrijver (2005; 2007; …) (line-of-sight magnetograms): Schrijver (2005; 2007; …) (line-of-sight magnetograms): field structure away from potential field; unsigned flux field structure away from potential field; unsigned flux along neutral line with strong field and high gradient.along neutral line with strong field and high gradient.

Georgolis/LaBonte (2006; 2007; …) (vector magnetic Georgolis/LaBonte (2006; 2007; …) (vector magnetic field): helicity.field): helicity.

Welsch et al (2009) (line-of-sight magnetograms): with Welsch et al (2009) (line-of-sight magnetograms): with information of flows, evolution …information of flows, evolution …

Many others, such as Jing et al. (2006); Cui et al. (2006; Many others, such as Jing et al. (2006); Cui et al. (2006; 2007); Guo et al (2006) …2007); Guo et al (2006) …

Flares or flares/CMEs: Flares or flares/CMEs: failed, ejectivefailed, ejective

Decay index n of overlying magnetic field Decay index n of overlying magnetic field (Simulation :see Torok & Kliem 2005; (Simulation :see Torok & Kliem 2005; Fan & Gibson 2007).Fan & Gibson 2007).

Courtesy: Kliem & Torok

Flares or flares/CMEs: Flares or flares/CMEs: failed, ejectivefailed, ejective

Decay index n of overlying magnetic field Decay index n of overlying magnetic field (Observation). (Observation).

nn Flux (e22 Flux (e22 Max)Max)

FailedFailed 1.62±0.051.62±0.05 6.60±0.336.60±0.33

EjectiveEjective 1.91±0.151.91±0.15 2.81±1.142.81±1.14

CMEs’ speedCMEs’ speed Reconnection flux, and background field Reconnection flux, and background field

configurationconfiguration..Type 1Type 1 Type 2Type 2 Type 3Type 3

numbernumber 3939 4646 1414

PercentagePercentage 39%39% 47%47% 14%14%

Median speed Median speed 728728 12081208 14431443

Mean speedMean speed 883±403883±403 1345±5961345±596 1530±7361530±736

Qiu & Yurchyshyn (2005)

Type 1

Type 2

Type 3

Orientation of magnetic Orientation of magnetic cloudcloud

Agreement between Agreement between the directions of the the directions of the heliospheric current heliospheric current sheet and the sheet and the magnetic cloud (see, magnetic cloud (see, Zhao & Hoeksema Zhao & Hoeksema 1998; Yurchyshyn 1998; Yurchyshyn 2008; Yurchyshyn & 2008; Yurchyshyn & Tripathi 2009).Tripathi 2009).

Yurchyshyn 2008

Interplanetary magnetic Interplanetary magnetic field and solar mean fieldfield and solar mean field

Correlation between solar mean field and Correlation between solar mean field and interplanetary magnetic field (see, e.g. interplanetary magnetic field (see, e.g. Kotov et al. 2002).Kotov et al. 2002).

Courtesy: Xuepu Zhao.

Solar wind speedSolar wind speed

Wang-Sheeley (or Wang-Sheeley-Wang-Sheeley (or Wang-Sheeley-Arge) model; MHD simualtions.Arge) model; MHD simualtions.

Courtesy: Xudong Sun

Proposed parameters Proposed parameters (potential to be used for (potential to be used for space weather forecast)space weather forecast)

Solar active regions.Solar active regions. Basic parameters: unsigned flux, net flux, tilt, Basic parameters: unsigned flux, net flux, tilt,

separation.separation. Solar flares.Solar flares.

Indices (TBD).Indices (TBD). Flares or CMEs (failed or successful eruptions);Flares or CMEs (failed or successful eruptions);

Decay index of magnetic field overlying magnetic Decay index of magnetic field overlying magnetic neutral lines.neutral lines.

CMEs’ speed.CMEs’ speed. Reconnection flux and background field configuration.Reconnection flux and background field configuration.

Orientation of magnetic cloud.Orientation of magnetic cloud. Direction of heliospheric current sheet.Direction of heliospheric current sheet.

Interplanetary magnetic field.Interplanetary magnetic field. Solar mean field and PFSS/MHD modeling.Solar mean field and PFSS/MHD modeling.

Solar wind speed.Solar wind speed.