soybean meal outlook...soybean meal outlook ron plain d. howard doane professor university of...
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Soybean Meal Outlook
Ron PlainD. Howard Doane ProfessorUniversity of Missouri
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The darker the color, the more severe the drought
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September Corn Futures Daily Close, 2012
Source: CMEGroup
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September Soy Meal Futures Daily Close, 2012
Source: CMEGroup
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SOYBEANS
●U.S.
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U.S. Soybean Acres Planted, 1970-12
Source: USDA/NASS
78.6 million acres expected in 2013
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U.S. Average Soybean Yield, 1970-12
42.7 bu/acre expected in 2013
Source: USDA/NASS
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U.S. Soybean Production, 1970-12
3.302 billion bushels expected in 2013
Source: USDA/NASS
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U.S. Soybean Exports, 1975-13
Source: USDA/NASS
1.461 billion bushels expected in 2013
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U.S. Soybean Price, 1970-13
Source: USDA/NASS
$12.05/bu expected in 2013
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U.S. Monthly Average Soybean Price
Source: USDA/AMS
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U.S. Monthly Average Soybean Price
Thru Nov 2016 all soybean futures contracts are above $12.40 per bushel
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Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS
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Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS
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Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS
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Gross Revenue by Crop, 1981-12*
*Excluding government’s fixed, countercyclical, deficiency and crop insurance payments
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Non-land Cost by Crop, 1981-12
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Breakeven Land Rent by Crop, 1981-12*
*Excluding government’s fixed, countercyclical, deficiency and crop insurance indemnities
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Iowa Farm Real Estate Values, 1940-2012*USDA/NASS
*Includes all land, buildings, and dwellings on farms.
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U.S. Average Farm Price
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U.S. Soybean/Corn Price Ratio, 1975-13
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U.S. Corn Acres Planted, 1970-12
2012: most since 1937
Source: USDA/NASS
97.3 million acres expected in 2013
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SOYBEANS
●U.S.●World
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U.S. & Foreign Soybean Production
U.S. share of world production: 1990-91 50.3% 2012-13 30.2%
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Soybean Production (mmt)
2011-12 2012-13 changeU.S.A 84.19 80.86 - 4.0%Brazil 66.50 81.00 + 21.8%Argentina 41.00 55.00 + 34.1%China 14.48 12.60 - 13.0%EU-27 1.29 1.10 Japan 0.22 0.22 World 239.22 267.60 + 11.9%
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SOYBEAN MEAL
●U.S.
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Source: USDA/AMS
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Source: USDA/AMS
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Source: USDA/AMS
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Source: USDA/AMS
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Source: USDA/AMS
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U.S. Soy Component Value
Source: USDA/ERS Oil Crops Yearbook
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U.S. Soybean Meal Supply
Source: USDA/ERS
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U.S. Soybean Meal Usage
Source: USDA/ERS
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U.S. Protein Meal Prices
Source: USDA/FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
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U.S. Soy Meal Exports, 2011-12
Source: USDA/FAS
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SOYBEAN MEAL
●U.S.●World
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World Protein Meal Production
Source: USDA/FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
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World Soy Meal Production
Source: USDA/FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
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Soybean Meal Share of World Protein Meal Production
Source: USDA/FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
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World Protein Production
Source: USDA/FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
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World Soybean Production
Source: USDA/FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
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World Soy Meal Production
Source: USDA/FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
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World Soy Meal Consumption
Source: USDA/FAS
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Soybean Meal Imports
Source: USDA/FAS
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Soybean Meal Exports
Source: USDA/FAS
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SOYBEAN MEAL DEMAND
●Domestic
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Source: LMIC
2013 meat production lowest since 2006
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Source: USDA/ERS
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Source: USDA/ERS
2013 per capita meat consumption lowest since 1990
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Forecast Change in Meat Production
---Percent Change--- Type 2011-12 2012-13
Beef - 2.3% - 4.2%Pork +2.2% - 1.4%Chicken - 0.8% - 1.2%Turkey +3.3% - 3.2%All Meats - 0.3% - 2.2%
Source: USDA-OCE WASDE, November 2012
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U.S. Average Corn Price, 1908-2011
Source: USDA/NASS
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U.S. Average Corn Price, 1908-2011
Source: USDA/NASS
1908-194235 years Avg $0.78
1942-1972 30 years Avg $1.26
1973-200634 years Avg $2.37
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Source: USDA/NASS
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Corn Milled for EthanolForecast
% corn for ethanol:
2000-01: 6%
2005-06: 14%
2007-08: 23%
2009-10: 35%
2012-13: 42%
Source: USDA/NASS
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2007 Renewable Fuels Mandate
Corn for ethanol needs to increase 220 million bushels/year
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U.S. Corn Price, 1970-12
Source: USDA/NASS
$5.07/bushel expected in 2013
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Value of U.S. Corn Crop, 1970-12
Source: USDA/NASS
$72.7 billion expected in 2013
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U.S. Monthly Average Corn Price
Thru Dec 2015 all corn futures contracts are above $5.80 per bushel
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Source: USDA/NASS
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Source: USDA/NASS
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Meat Demand
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Index of Retail Meat DemandBase Elasticity = - 0.75
Source: Ron Plain, MU
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Gasoline Prices & Meat Demand, 1999-2012
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Correlation = -0.37
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U.S. Civilian Employment, 1948-2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, household survey, seasonally adjusted & MU, 1.00143/month
In October 2012, U.S. 17.5 million jobs under trend
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Growth in Real GDP
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
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Change in Real GDP from Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted, Annual Rate, 1950-2011
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Change in Real GDP from Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted, Annual Rate, 1950-2011
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Boneless Retail Meat Prices as % of Bologna, Monthly, 2007-2012
Source: USDA/ERS
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SOYBEAN MEAL DEMAND
●Domestic●Foreign
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Soybean Meal Prices
Source: USDA/FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
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KEY SOY MEAL ISSUES
●Short run●South American crop●China’s purchases●2013 acreage and weather
●Longer term●South American acreage●U.S. livestock & poultry inventory●Next farm bill●Renewable fuels policy
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Questions?