southern-southeastern january 20, 2017 john...
TRANSCRIPT
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Southern-Southeastern
January 20, 2017
John Mitchell
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“Market” ICE Cotton Futures Market Price
Basis for Base Grade
Other Qualities Premiums & Discounts
Choice Cotton
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Choice Cotton
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Basis Base Grade: 41 color, 4 leaf, 34 length,
3.5-4.9 micronaire,
Strength. Minimum 26.0 GPT or 28.0 GPT
Uniformity. 80.0 Minimum
No reduced or remarks
Choice Cotton
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Basis Factors Costs
Freight to destination
Warehouse and Handling
Terms
Supply & Demand
Total
S&D of Qualities
Choice Cotton
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Choice Cotton
41-4-34 Southeast Basis
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Southeast USDA ClassingAL FL GA SC NC VA SE
41-4-34 3.5-4.9, 25+
1% 1% 1% 6% 4% 3% 2%
Choice Cotton
2016 Crop
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Southeast USDA ClassingAL FL GA SC NC VA SE
41-4-34 3.5-4.9, 25+
1% 1% 1% 6% 4% 3% 2%
31+3+35+3.5-4.9
49% 55% 54% 3% 25% 3% 45%
Choice Cotton
2016 Crop
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Southeast USDA ClassingAL FL GA SC NC VA SE
41-4-34 3.5-4.9, 25+
1% 1% 1% 6% 4% 3% 2%
31+3+35+3.5-4.9
49% 55% 54% 3% 25% 3% 45%
31+3+36+28+,8 0+
30% 34% 38% 2% 16% 2% 31%
Choice Cotton
2016 Crop
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Choice Cotton
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Choice Cotton
41-4-34 and 31-3-36
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Choice Cotton
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Premium & DiscountAverage Loan Value 2016 Crop
Choice Cotton
AL FL GA NC SC VA SE
54.28 54.51 54.49 50.93 53.53 52.15 53.98
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Choice Cotton
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Source: Parkdale Mills – Cotton / Economic News
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What's driving prices? External
Funds & Speculators
Macro Economic Forces
Technical Indicators
Fundamentals
Choice Cotton
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Commitment of Traders - CFTC
Choice Cotton
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Futures Commitment of TradersThrough July Futures
Managed Funds long 8.8 million bales
Index Funds long 6.3 million
Swaps Traders long 4 million
Non Reportable long 1 million
Call Sales (short) 8 million net
Trade short 17 million
Choice Cotton
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Choice Cotton
Production v Consumption
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Choice Cotton
Production v Consumption
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Choice Cotton
Ending Stocks
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Choice Cotton
Ending Stocks – Monthly USDA
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Choice Cotton
(Source: ICAC, November 2014 World Textile Demand Report)
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Choice Cotton
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Choice Cotton
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Choice Cotton
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Weekly Export Sales
Choice Cotton
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Weekly Export Shipments
Choice Cotton
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December Contracts – Feb 1st = 100%
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Conclusion 2017 Crop
Choice Cotton
10% rise (Dec = 78.00¢ ) is rare from February 1st.
5% rise (Dec = 74.50¢) is reasonable. And a good place to start pricing. GTC is a great idea.
If a current crop sell off does drag December 2017 down, current S&D favors a recovery before Summer .
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2017 Calendar
Choice Cotton
Chinese New Year – January 27 – February 2
USDA Crop Report – February 9
NCC Planting Intentions – February 11
USDA AG Outlook Forum – February 23
China Auctions Resume early March
USDA Planting Intentions – March 31
USDA First 2017/18 Projections - May 10, 2017
USDA Planted Acres estimate – June 30
2017 loan 49.49¢. LDP 7¢ below current futures.
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Sources
Choice Cotton
Choice Cotton http://www.choicecotton.com/
USDA https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/advQuery
Parkdale https://www.parkdalemills.com/cotton-economic-news/
CFTC http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalCompressed/index.htm
FAS Exports https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/wkHistData.htm